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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Wind Resource Data from Different PBL Schemes in the WRF Model: A Case Study Over the Puerto Rico Region

This study examines the modeling uncertainty of wind resource data stemming from the use of various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. WRF-based wind simulations spanning 20 years at 3-km resolution using 11 different PBL schemes are used to objectively investigate the uncertainty in modeling wind speed for land-based wind (LBW) and offshore wind (OSW) locations in Puerto Rico. The uncertainty in the wind modeling for the 20-year dataset is quantified using the spread index (SI) and standard deviation (SD). For virtual LBW and OSW sites, the SI and SD values are analyzed as calculated across various spatial and temporal scales. Because the PBL's atmospheric stability conditions can be characterized into two dominant categories, the study focuses on analyzing the SI and SD for daytime (mainly unstable PBL conditions) and nighttime (mainly stable PBL conditions). For wind shear (10 m-200 m) at the OSW and LBW sites, WRF-based numerical experiments indicate the following SI (or SD) ranges: 39%-94% (0.74 m/s-1.44 m/s) during the daytime for OSW, 50%-75% (0.68 m/s-1.19 m/s) during the daytime for LBW, 37%-60% (0.73 m/s-1.12 m/s) during the nighttime for OSW, and 57%-143 % (0.65 m/s-1.43 m/s) during the nighttime for LBW. While a high SI is observed when modeling LBW during the nighttime, there are notable modeling uncertainties during the daytime on the leeward side of the orographic barriers for Puerto Rico.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2008

Hard Constraints in Optimization Under Uncertainty

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design of systems subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements are specified via hard inequality constraints. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations within a given uncertainty model. Uncertainty models given by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles, are the focus of this paper. These models, which are also quite practical, allow for a rigorous mathematical treatment within the proposed framework. Hard constraint feasibility is determined by sizing the largest uncertainty set for which the design requirements are satisfied. Analytically verifiable assessments of robustness are attained by comparing this set with the actual uncertainty model. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness characteristics of competing design alternatives, the description and approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the tools derived only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, this methodology is applicable to a broad range of engineering problems.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Closed Form Solution for Minimum Norm Model-Validating Uncertainty

A methodology in which structured uncertainty models are directly constructed from measurement data for use in robust control design of multivariable systems is proposed. The formulation allows a general linear fractional transformation uncertainty structure connections with respect to a given nominal model. Existence conditions are given, and under mild assumptions, a closed-form expression for the smallest norm structured uncertainty that validates the model is given. The uncertainty bound computation is simple and is formulated for both open and closed loop systems.

Lim, Kyong Been↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-12725-DND

Uncertainty analysis and robust design - increase confidence and consistency in aerospace vehicle safety predictions by developing improved methods for quantifying and managing uncertainty. Quantifying: uncertainty modeling (model uncertainty based on experimental data, simulations and/or expert opinion) and uncertainty propagation (given uncertainty models of a system’s inputs, how to propagate them through system models, to efficiently evaluate the corresponding system’s outputs?). Managing: robust design (generate designs that robustly accommodate uncertainty) and uncertainty decomposition (identify uncertainties that contribute the most to performance degradation and determine the parameters that should (not) be modeled as uncertain).

Sean P Kenny↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geomagnetic Disturbance Uncertainty Quantification Modeling: An Electromagnetic Transient and Steady-State Simulation Based Approach

Geomagnetic disturbances have been shown to disrupt the operation of the bulk electrical system through low-frequency effects in the earth's magnetic field that in turn induce changing electrical fields on the earth's surface. As a result, geomagnetically induced currents flow in transmission lines, introducing the risk for widespread damage to high-voltage transformers and voltage collapse due to induced reactive power loss. In a previous paper, the authors showed how certain modeling assumptions can lead to results that are unacceptable in certain edge case scenarios. In this paper, the authors build on their previous results using modeling uncertainty quantification in order to compare the results from electromagnetic transient program modeling software, ATP, to the positive-sequence calculation software, PowerWorld.

Bretas, Arturo Suman↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth System Model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) are heavily used to provide inputs to sectoral impact and multisector dynamic models, which include representations of energy, water, land, economics, and their interactions. Therefore, representing the full range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability that ensembles of these models capture is critical to the exploration of the future co-evolution of the integrated human–Earth system. The pre-eminent source of these ensembles has been the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). With more modeling centers participating in each new CMIP phase, the size of the model archive is rapidly increasing, which can be intractable for impact modelers to effectively utilize due to computational constraints and the challenges of analyzing large datasets. In this work, we present a method to select a subset of the latest phase, CMIP6, featuring models for use as inputs to a sectoral impact or multisector dynamics models, while prioritizing preservation of the range of model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and interannual variability in the full CMIP6 ensemble results. This method is intended to help impact modelers select climate information from the CMIP archive efficiently for use in downstream models that require global coverage of climate information. This is particularly critical for large-ensemble experiments of multisector dynamic models that may be varying additional features beyond climate inputs in a factorial design, thus putting constraints on the number of climate simulations that can be used. We focus on temperature and precipitation outputs of CMIP6 models, as these are two of the most used variables among impact models, and many other key input variables for impacts are at least correlated with one or both of temperature and precipitation (e.g., relative humidity). Besides preserving the multi-model ensemble variance characteristics, we prioritize selecting CMIP6 models in the subset that preserve the very likely distribution of equilibrium climate sensitivity values as assessed by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. This approach could be applied to other output variables of climate models and, possibly when combined with emulators, offers a flexible framework for designing more efficient experiments on human-relevant climate impacts. It can also provide greater insight into the properties of existing CMIP6 models.

Snyder, Abigail C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Microgravity isolation system design: A case study

Many acceleration-sensitive, microgravity science experiments will require active vibration isolation from manned orbiters on which they will be mounted. The isolation problem, especially in the case of a tethered payload, is a complex three-dimensional one that is best suited to modern-control design methods. In this paper, extended H(sub 2) synthesis is used to design an active isolator (i.e., controller) for a realistic single-input-multiple-output (SIMO) microgravity vibration isolation problem. Complex mu-analysis methods are used to analyze the isolation system with respect to sensor, actuator, and umbilical uncertainties. The paper fully discusses the design process employed and the insights gained. This design case study provides a practical approach for isolation problems of greater complexity. Issues addressed include a physically intuitive state-space description of the system, disturbance and noise filters, filters for frequency weighting, and uncertainty models. The controlled system satisfies all the performance specifications and is robust with respect to model uncertainties.

Hampton, R. D.↗