Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Uncertainty Propagation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Quantification of the FUN3D-Predicted NASA CRM Flutter Boundary

A nonintrusive point collocation method is used to propagate parametric uncertainties of the flexible Common Research Model, a generic transport configuration, through the unsteady aeroelastic CFD solver FUN3D. A range of random input variables are considered, including atmospheric flow variables, structural variables, and inertial (lumped mass) variables. UQ results are explored for a range of output metrics (with a focus on dynamic flutter stability), for both subsonic and transonic Mach numbers, for two different CFD mesh refinements. A particular focus is placed on computing failure probabilities: the probability that the wing will flutter within the flight envelope.

Stanford, Bret K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Optimization of Systems with Uncertainty: Initial Developments for Performance, Robustness and Reliability Based Designs

This paper presents a study on the optimization of systems with structured uncertainties, whose inputs and outputs can be exhaustively described in the probabilistic sense. By propagating the uncertainty from the input to the output in the space of the probability density functions and the moments, optimization problems that pursue performance, robustness and reliability based designs are studied. Be specifying the desired outputs in terms of desired probability density functions and then in terms of meaningful probabilistic indices, we settle a computationally viable framework for solving practical optimization problems. Applications to static optimization and stability control are used to illustrate the relevance of incorporating uncertainty in the early stages of the design. Several examples that admit a full probabilistic description of the output in terms of the design variables and the uncertain inputs are used to elucidate the main features of the generic problem and its solution. Extensions to problems that do not admit closed form solutions are also evaluated. Concrete evidence of the importance of using a consistent probabilistic formulation of the optimization problem and a meaningful probabilistic description of its solution is provided in the examples. In the stability control problem the analysis shows that standard deterministic approaches lead to designs with high probability of running into instability. The implementation of such designs can indeed have catastrophic consequences.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Fermi Large Area Telescope on Orbit: Event Classification, Instrument Response Functions, and Calibration

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT, hereafter LAT), the primary instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) mission, is an imaging, wide field-of-view, high-energy -ray telescope, covering the energy range from 20 MeV to more than 300 GeV. During the first years of the mission the LAT team has gained considerable insight into the in-flight performance of the instrument. Accordingly, we have updated the analysis used to reduce LAT data for public release as well as the Instrument Response Functions (IRFs), the description of the instrument performance provided for data analysis. In this paper we describe the effects that motivated these updates. Furthermore, we discuss how we originally derived IRFs from Monte Carlo simulations and later corrected those IRFs for discrepancies observed between flight and simulated data. We also give details of the validations performed using flight data and quantify the residual uncertainties in the IRFs. Finally, we describe techniques the LAT team has developed to propagate those uncertainties into estimates of the systematic errors on common measurements such as fluxes and spectra of astrophysical sources.

Ackermann, M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Quantifying the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to source mineralogy uncertainty

The large uncertainty in the mineral dust direct radiative effect (DRE) hinders projections of future climate change due to anthropogenic activity. Resolving modeled dust mineral speciation allows for spatially and temporally varying refractive indices consistent with dust aerosol composition. Here, for the first time, we quantify the range in dust DRE at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to current uncertainties in the surface soil mineralogical content using a dust mineral-resolving climate model. We propagate observed uncertainties in soil mineral abundances from two soil mineralogy atlases along with the optical properties of each mineral into the DRE and compare the resultant range with other sources of uncertainty across six climate models. The shortwave DRE responds region-specifically to the dust burden depending on the mineral speciation and underlying shortwave surface albedo: positively when the regionally averaged annual surface albedo is larger than 0.28 and negatively otherwise. Among all minerals examined, the shortwave TOA DRE and single scattering albedo at the 0.44–0.63 µm band are most sensitive to the fractional contribution of iron oxides to the total dust composition. The global net (shortwave plus longwave) TOA DRE is estimated to be within −0.23 to +0.35 W/sq. m. Approximately 97 % of this range relates to uncertainty in the soil abundance of iron oxides. Representing iron oxide with solely hematite optical properties leads to an overestimation of shortwave DRE by +0.10 W/sq. m at the TOA, as goethite is not as absorbing as hematite in the shortwave spectrum range. Our study highlights the importance of iron oxides to the shortwave DRE: they have a disproportionally large impact on climate considering their small atmospheric mineral mass fractional burden (∼2 %). An improved description of iron oxides, such as those planned in the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT), is thus essential for more accurate estimates of the dust DRE.

mineral dust↗
NASA NTRS2003

First Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe(WMAP) Observations: Data Processing Methods and Systematic Errors Limits

We describe the calibration and data processing methods used to generate full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from the first year of Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) observations. Detailed limits on residual systematic errors are assigned based largely on analyses of the flight data supplemented, where necessary, with results from ground tests. The data are calibrated in flight using the dipole modulation of the CMB due to the observatory's motion around the Sun. This constitutes a full-beam calibration source. An iterative algorithm simultaneously fits the time-ordered data to obtain calibration parameters and pixelized sky map temperatures. The noise properties are determined by analyzing the time-ordered data with this sky signal estimate subtracted. Based on this, we apply a pre-whitening filter to the time-ordered data to remove a low level of l/f noise. We infer and correct for a small (approx. 1 %) transmission imbalance between the two sky inputs to each differential radiometer, and we subtract a small sidelobe correction from the 23 GHz (K band) map prior to further analysis. No other systematic error corrections are applied to the data. Calibration and baseline artifacts, including the response to environmental perturbations, are negligible. Systematic uncertainties are comparable to statistical uncertainties in the characterization of the beam response. Both are accounted for in the covariance matrix of the window function and are propagated to uncertainties in the final power spectrum. We characterize the combined upper limits to residual systematic uncertainties through the pixel covariance matrix.

Hinshaw, G.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Prelaunch Radiometric Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis of Landsat Thermal Infrared Sensor 2

The Thermal Infrared Sensor-2 (TIRS-2) that will be onboard Landsat 9 has undergone a prelaunch testing campaign to characterize its radiometric, spectral, and spatial performances and demonstrate compliance to its requirements. This work reviews the key elements of the instrument-level radiometric testing using an SI-traceable source to derive its uncertainties. Those arising from on-orbit calibration using the TIRS-2 onboard blackbody are also discussed. We use a Monte Carlo approach to propagate the uncertainties through a nonlinear calibration equation and address both random and systematic uncertainty terms. Achieving the required performance demonstrates the instrument's potential for enhancing our understanding of the Earth's environment.

Aaron Pearlman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HIFiRE Flight 2 Unstart Reliability Analysis

The objective of this work was to assess the unstart reliability of the HIFiRE Flight 2 system. To do this, a quantification of margins and uncertainties framework was used for comparing model predictions of the predicted combustion induced shock location to the predicted last stable shock location within the isolator. Uncertainty sources included parametric uncertainty in the flight conditions, the heat release model, and turbulence modeling, as well as model verification errors. Additionally, an estimate of model-form uncertainty was established by comparing the model to measured ground test data. A computationally efficient non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach was used to propagate parametric uncertainty through the computational flu-ids dynamics models of both the ground test configuration and the flight vehicle. Compared to direct-connect ground test data, computational fluid dynamics predictions yielded about two duct heights of model-form uncertainty. This was applied to a prediction of flight vehicle unstart margin at the Mach 6.5 flight condition. Building up all of the computational model uncertainty, including parametric uncertainty, verification errors, and the determined model-form uncertainty, a 95% probability level based confidence ratio, or a ratio of total uncertainty to a statistical margin measure, was found to be 0.31 for the flight system.

Thomas K West↗
NASA NTRS2020

Pre-launch Radiometric Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis of Landsat Thermal Infrared Sensor 2

The Thermal Infrared Sensor-2 that will be on-board Landsat 9 has undergone a pre-launch testing campaign to characterize its radiometric, spectral, and spatial performance and demonstrate compliance to its requirements. This work reviews key elements of the instrument-level radiometric testing using an SI traceable source to derive its uncertainties. Those arising from on-orbit calibration using the TIRS-2 on-board blackbody are also discussed. We use a Monte Carlo approach to propagate the uncertainties through a non-linear calibration equation and address both random and systematic uncertainty terms. Achieving the required performance demonstrates the instrument’s potential for enhancing our understanding of the Earth’s environment.

Landsat↗
NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Methods for Structural Reliability and Risk

A formal method is described to quantify structural reliability and risk in the presence of a multitude of uncertainties. The method is based on the materials behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatters are used to describe that behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate those uncertainties to the structural scale where reliability and risk are usually specified. A sample case is described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from this method demonstrate that the method is mature and that it can be used for future strategic projections and planning to assure better, cheaper, faster products for competitive advantages in world markets. The results also indicate that the methods are suitable for predicting remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Uncertainty of Five-Hole Probe Measurements

A new algorithm for five-hole probe calibration and data reduction using a non-nulling technique was developed, verified, and reported earlier (Wendt and Reichert, 1993). The new algorithm's simplicity permits an analytical treatment of the propagation of uncertainty in five-hole probe measurement. The objectives of the uncertainty analysis are to quantify the uncertainty of five-hole probe results (e.g., total pressure, static pressure, and flow direction) and to determine the dependence of the result uncertainty on the uncertainty of all underlying experimental and calibration measurands. This study outlines a general procedure that other researchers may use to determine five-hole probe result uncertainty and provides guidance for improving the measurement technique.

Reichert, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Damage Tolerance and Reliability of Turbine Engine Components

A formal method is described to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the materials behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatters are used to describe that behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate those uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from these methods demonstrate that the methods are mature and that they can be used for future strategic projections and planning to assure better, cheaper, faster products for competitive advantages in world markets. These results also indicate that the methods are suitable for predicting remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Damage Tolerance and Reliability of Turbine Engine Components

A formal method is described to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the materials behaviour level where primitive variables with their respective scatters are used to describe the behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate those uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from these methods demonstrate that the methods are mature and that they can be used for future strategic projections and planning to assure better, cheaper, faster, products for competitive advantages in world markets. These results also indicate that the methods are suitable for predicting remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Damage Tolerance and Reliability of Turbine Engine Components

This report describes a formal method to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of a multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the material behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatter ranges are used to describe behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate the uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from this method demonstrate that it is mature and that it can be used to probabilistically evaluate turbine engine structural components. It may be inferred from the results that the method is suitable for probabilistically predicting the remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures, for making strategic projections and plans, and for achieving better, cheaper, faster products that give competitive advantages in world markets.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Methods for Structural Design and Reliability

This report describes a formal method to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of a multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the material behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatter ranges are used to describe behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate the uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from this method demonstrate, that it is mature and that it can be used to probabilistically evaluate turbine engine structural components. It may be inferred from the results that the method is suitable for probabilistically predicting the remaining life in aging or in deteriorating structures, for making strategic projections and plans, and for achieving better, cheaper, faster products that give competitive advantages in world markets.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Detecting Trend and Seasonal Changes in Bathymetry Derived from HICO Imagery: A Case Study of Shark Bay, Western Australia

The Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) aboard the International Space Station has offered for the first time a dedicated space-borne hyperspectral sensor specifically designed for remote sensing of the coastal environment. However, several processing steps are required to convert calibrated top-of-atmosphere radiances to the desired geophysical parameter(s). These steps add various amounts of uncertainty that can cumulatively render the geophysical parameter imprecise and potentially unusable if the objective is to analyze trends and/or seasonal variability. This research presented here has focused on: (1) atmospheric correction of HICO imagery; (2) retrieval of bathymetry using an improved implementation of a shallow water inversion algorithm; (3) propagation of uncertainty due to environmental noise through the bathymetry retrieval process; (4) issues relating to consistent geo-location of HICO imagery necessary for time series analysis, and; (5) tide height corrections of the retrieved bathymetric dataset. The underlying question of whether a temporal change in depth is detectable above uncertainty is also addressed. To this end, nine HICO images spanning November 2011 to August 2012, over the Shark Bay World Heritage Area, Western Australia, were examined. The results presented indicate that precision of the bathymetric retrievals is dependent on the shallow water inversion algorithm used. Within this study, an average of 70% of pixels for the entire HICO-derived bathymetry dataset achieved a relative uncertainty of less than +/-20%. A per-pixel t-test analysis between derived bathymetry images at successive timestamps revealed observable changes in depth to as low as 0.4 m. However, the present geolocation accuracy of HICO is relatively poor and needs further improvements before extensive time series analysis can be performed.

coastal marine↗
NASA NTRS2022

Aerosol Models from the AERONET Database: Application to Surface Reflectance Validation Satellite Data

Aerosols play a critical role in radiative transfer within the atmosphere, and they have a significant impact on climate change. In this paper, we propose and implement a framework for developing an aerosol model using their microphysical properties. Such microphysical properties as the size distribution, the complex refractive index, and the percentage of sphericity are derived from the global AERosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). These measurements, however, are typically retrieved when almucantar measurement procedures are performed (i.e., early mornings and late afternoons with clear sky) and might not have a temporal correspondence to a satellite overpass time, so a valid validation of satellite-derived products cannot be carried out. To address this problem of temporal inconsistency of satellite and ground-based measurements, we developed an approach to retrieve these microphysical properties (and the corresponding aerosol model) using the optical thickness at 440 nm, τ440, and the Ångström coefficient between 440 and 870 nm, α440–870. Such aerosol models were developed for 851 AERONET sites within the last 28 years. Obtained results suggest that empirically microphysical properties can be retrieved with uncertainties of up to 23 %. An exception is the imaginary part of the refractive index ni, for which the derived uncertainties reach up to 38 %. These specific parametric models of aerosol can be used for the studies when retrieval of microphysical properties is required as well as validation of satellite-derived products over land. Specifically, we demonstrate the usefulness of the aerosol models to validate surface reflectance records over land derived from optical remote sensing sensors. We then quantify the propagation of uncertainties in the surface reflectance due to uncertainties with the aerosol model retrieval that is used as a reference from radiative transfer simulations. Results indicate that individual aerosol microphysical properties can impact uncertainties in surface reflectance retrievals between 3.5 × 10(exp -5) to 1 × 10(exp -3) (in reflectance units). The overall impact of microphysical properties combined yields an overall uncertainty in surface reflectance <0.004 (in reflectance units). That corresponds, for example, to 1 to 3 % of the retrieved surface reflectance in the red spectral band (620–670 nm) by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. These uncertainty values are well below the specification (0.005 + 0.05ρ; ρ is the retrieved surface reflectance) used for the MODIS atmospheric correction.

Jean-Claude Roger↗
NASA NTRS1994

A new algorithm for five-hole probe calibration, data reduction, and uncertainty analysis

A new algorithm for five-hole probe calibration and data reduction using a non-nulling method is developed. The significant features of the algorithm are: (1) two components of the unit vector in the flow direction replace pitch and yaw angles as flow direction variables; and (2) symmetry rules are developed that greatly simplify Taylor's series representations of the calibration data. In data reduction, four pressure coefficients allow total pressure, static pressure, and flow direction to be calculated directly. The new algorithm's simplicity permits an analytical treatment of the propagation of uncertainty in five-hole probe measurement. The objectives of the uncertainty analysis are to quantify uncertainty of five-hole results (e.g., total pressure, static pressure, and flow direction) and determine the dependence of the result uncertainty on the uncertainty of all underlying experimental and calibration measurands. This study outlines a general procedure that other researchers may use to determine five-hole probe result uncertainty and provides guidance to improve measurement technique. The new algorithm is applied to calibrate and reduce data from a rake of five-hole probes. Here, ten individual probes are mounted on a single probe shaft and used simultaneously. Use of this probe is made practical by the simplicity afforded by this algorithm.

Reichert, Bruce A.↗