Breaking the Molecular Dynamics Timescale Barrier Using a Wafer-Scale System
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The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a four-telescope array observing the largest angular scales (2≲ ℓ ≲ 200) of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization. These scales encode information about reionization and inflation during the early universe. The instrument stability necessary to observe these angular scales from the ground is achieved through the use of a variable-delay polarization modulator as the first optical element in each of the CLASS telescopes. Here, we develop a demodulation scheme used to extract the polarization timestreams from the CLASS data and apply this method to selected data from the first 2 yr of observations by the 40 GHz CLASS telescope. These timestreams are used to measure the 1/f noise and temperature-to-polarization (T → P) leakage present in the CLASS data. We find a median knee frequency for the pair-differenced demodulated linear polarization of 15.12 mHz and a T → P leakage of <3.8 × 10 -4 (95% confidence) across the focal plane. We examine the sources of 1/f noise present in the data and find the component of 1/f due to atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) has an amplitude of 203 ± 12 µK RJ $\sqrt{{s}}$ for 1 mm of PWV when evaluated at 10 mHz; accounting for ~17% of the 1/f noise in the central pixels of the focal plane. In conclusion, the low levels of T → P leakage and 1/f noise achieved through the use of a front-end polarization modulator are requirements for observing of the largest angular scales of the CMB polarization by the CLASS telescopes.
We present second observations by K2 of OJ 287 and seven other γ-ray active galactic nuclei (AGNs) obtained in 2017–2018, second and third observations of the lobe-dominated, steep-spectrum quasar 3C 207, and observations of nine additional blazars not previously observed with K2. The AGNs were observed simultaneously with K2 and the Fermi Large Area Telescope for 51–81 days. Our full sample, observed in 2014–2018, contained 16 BL Lacertae objects (BL Lacs), nine flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs), and four other γ-ray AGNs. Twelve BL Lacs and seven FSRQs exhibited fast, jagged light curves, while four BL Lacs and two FSRQs had slow, smooth light curves. Some objects changed their red-noise character significantly between repeated K2 observations. The optical characteristics of OJ 287 derived from the short-cadence K2 light curves changed between observations made before and after the predicted passage of the suspected secondary supermassive black hole through the accretion disk of the primary supermassive black hole. The average slopes of the periodogram power spectral densities of the BL Lacs' and FSRQs' light curves differed significantly, by ≈12%, with the BL Lac slopes being steeper, and a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test with a p-value of 0.039 indicates that these samples probably come from different populations; however, this result is not as strongly supported by power spectral response (PSRESP) analyses. Differences in the origin of the jets from the ergosphere or accretion disk in these two classes could produce such a disparity, as could different sizes or locations of emission regions within the jets.
Electricity load forecasting for buildings and campuses is becoming increasingly important as the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) grows. Efficient operation and dispatch of DERs require reasonably accurate predictions of future energy consumption in order to conduct near-real-time optimized dispatch of on-site generation and storage assets. Electric utilities have traditionally performed load forecasting for load pockets spanning large geographic areas, and therefore, forecasting has not been a common practice by buildings and campus operators. Given the growing trends of research and prototyping in the grid-interactive efficient buildings domain, characteristics beyond simple algorithm forecast accuracy are important in determining the algorithm's true utility for smart buildings. Other characteristics include the overall design of the deployed architecture and the operational efficiency of the forecasting system. In this work, we present a deep-learning-based load forecasting system that predicts the building load at 1-hour intervals for 18 hours in the future. We also discuss challenges associated with the real-time deployment of such systems as well as the research opportunities presented by a fully functional forecasting system that has been developed within the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Intelligent Campus program.
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Turbulent and compressed sheath regions preceding interplanetary coronal mass ejections strongly impact electron dynamics in the outer radiation belt. Changes in electron flux can occur on timescales of tens of minutes, which are unlikely to be captured by a two-satellite mission. The recently released Global Positioning System (GPS) data set generally has shorter revisit times (at L ~ 4–8) owing to the large number of satellites in the constellation equipped with energetic particle detectors. Investigating electron fluxes at energies from 140 keV to 4 MeV and sheaths observed in 2012–2018, we show that the flux response to sheaths on a timescale of 6 hr, previously reported from Van Allen Probes (RBSP) data, is reproduced by GPS measurements. Furthermore, GPS data enables derivation of the response on a timescale of 30 min, which further confirms that the energy and L-shell dependent changes in electron flux are associated with the impact of the sheath. Sheath-driven loss is underestimated over longer timescales as the electrons recover during the ejecta. We additionally show the response of electron phase space density (PSD), which is a key quantity in identifying non-adiabatic loss from the system and electron energization through wave-particle interactions. The PSD response is calculated from both RBSP and GPS data for the 6 hr timescale, as well as from GPS data for the 30 min timescale. The response is divided based on the geoeffectiveness of the sheaths revealing that electrons are effectively accelerated only during geoeffective sheaths, while loss commonly occurs during all sheaths.
Abstract The global air‐sea CO 2 flux (F) impacts and is impacted by a plethora of climate‐related processes operating at multiple time scales. In bulk mass transfer formulations, F is driven by physico‐ and bio‐chemical factors such as the air‐sea partial pressure difference (∆pCO 2 ), gas transfer velocity, sea surface temperature, and salinity–all varying at multiple time scales. To de‐convolve the impact of these factors on variability in F at different time scales, time‐resolved estimates of F were computed using a global data set assembled between 1988 and 2015. The F anomalies were defined as temporal deviations from the 28‐year time‐averaged value. Spectral analysis revealed four dominant timescales of variability in F–subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal with relative amplitude differences varying across regions. A second‐order Taylor series expansion was then conducted along these four timescales to separate drivers across differing regions. The analysis showed that on subseasonal timescales, wind speed variability explains some 66% of the global F anomaly and is the dominant driver. On seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales, the ∆pCO 2 effect controlled by the ∆pCO 2 anomaly, explained much of the F anomaly. On decadal timescales, the F anomaly was almost entirely governed by the ∆pCO 2 effect with large contributions from high latitudes. The main drivers across timescales also dominate the regional F anomaly, particularly in the mid‐high latitude regions. Finally, the driver of the ∆pCO 2 effect was closely connected with the relative strength of atmospheric pCO 2 and the nonthermal component of oceanic pCO 2 anomaly associated with dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity.
We present a minimal model to analyze the capacitive response of a biological membrane subjected to a step voltage via blocking electrodes. Through a perturbative analysis of the underlying electrolyte transport equations, we show that the leading-order relaxation of the transmembrane potential is governed by a capacitive timescale, τ_{C}=λ_{D}L/D(2+Γδ^{M}/L/4+Γδ^{M}/λ_{D}), where λ_{D} is the Debye screening length, L is the electrolyte width, Γ is the ratio of the permittivity of the electrolyte to the membrane, δ^{M} is the membrane thickness, and D is the ionic diffusivity. This timescale is considerably shorter than the traditional RC timescale λ_{D}L/D for a bare electrolyte due to the membrane's low permittivity and finite thickness. Beyond the linear regime, however, salt diffusion in the bulk electrolyte drives a secondary, nonlinear relaxation process of the transmembrane potential over a longer timescale τ_{L}=L^{2}/4π^{2}D. A simple equivalent-circuit model accurately captures the linear behavior, and the perturbation expansion remains applicable across the entire range of observed physiological transmembrane potentials. Together, these findings underscore the importance of the faster capacitive timescale and nonlinear effects on the bulk diffusion timescale in determining transmembrane potential dynamics for a range of biological systems.
Abstract Mercury’s orbit can destabilize, generally resulting in a collision with either Venus or the Sun. Chaotic evolution can causeg 1 to decrease to the approximately constant value ofg 5 and create a resonance. Previous work has approximated the variation ing 1 as stochastic diffusion, which leads to a phenomological model that can reproduce the Mercury instability statistics of secular andN-body models on timescales longer than 10 Gyr. Here we show that the diffusive model significantly underpredicts the Mercury instability probability on timescales less than 5 Gyr, the remaining lifespan of the solar system. This is becauseg 1 exhibits larger variations on short timescales than the diffusive model would suggest. To better model the variations on short timescales, we build a new subdiffusive phenomological model forg 1 . Subdiffusion is similar to diffusion but exhibits larger displacements on short timescales and smaller displacements on long timescales. We choose model parameters based on the behavior of theg 1 trajectories in theN-body simulations, leading to a tuned model that can reproduce Mercury instability statistics from 1–40 Gyr. This work motivates fundamental questions in solar system dynamics: why does subdiffusion better approximate the variation ing 1 than standard diffusion? Why is there an upper bound ong 1 , but not a lower bound that would prevent it from reachingg 5 ?