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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1983

Cleanroom certification model

The Cleanroom software development methodology is designed to take the gamble out of product releases for both suppliers and receivers of the software. The ingredients of this procedure are a life cycle of executable product increments, representative statistical testing, and a standard estimate of the MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) of the product at the time of its release. A statistical approach to software product testing using randomly selected samples of test cases is considered. A statistical model is defined for the certification process which uses the timing data recorded during test. A reasonableness argument for this model is provided that uses previously published data on software product execution. Also included is a derivation of the certification model estimators and a comparison of the proposed least squares technique with the more commonly used maximum likelihood estimators.

Currit, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Gaussian CL s method for searches of new physics

Here we describe a method based on the CL s approach to present results in searches of new physics, under the condition that the relevant parameter space is continuous. Our method relies on a class of test statistics developed for non-nested hypotheses testing problems, denoted by ΔT, which has a Gaussian approximation to its parent distribution when the sample size is large. This leads to a simple procedure of forming exclusion sets for the parameters of interest, which we call the Gaussian CL s method. Our work provides a self-contained mathematical proof for the Gaussian CL s method, that explicitly outlines the required conditions. These conditions are milder than that required by the Wilks' theorem to set confidence intervals (CIs). We illustrate the Gaussian CL s method in an example of searching for a sterile neutrino, where the CL s approach was rarely used before. We also compare data analysis results produced by the Gaussian CL s method and various CI methods to showcase their differences.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Realistic simulation of reduced-dose CT with noise modeling and sinogram synthesis using DICOM CT images

Purpose: Reducing the patient dose while maintaining the diagnostic image quality during CT exams is the subject of a growing number of studies, in which simulations of reduced-dose CT with patient data have been used as an effective technique when exploring the potential of various dose reduction techniques. Difficulties in accessing raw sinogram data, however, have restricted the use of this technique to a limited number of institutions. Here, we present a novel reduced-dose CT simulation technique which provides realistic low-dose images without the requirement of raw sinogram data. Methods: Two key characteristics of CT systems, the noise equivalent quanta (NEQ) and the algorithmic modulation transfer function (MTF), were measured for various combinations of object attenuation and tube currents by analyzing the noise power spectrum (NPS) of CT images obtained with a set of phantoms. Those measurements were used to develop a comprehensive CT noise model covering the reduced x-ray photon flux, object attenuation, system noise, and bow-tie filter, which was then employed to generate a simulated noise sinogram for the reduced-dose condition with the use of a synthetic sinogram generated from a reference CT image. The simulated noise sinogram was filtered with the algorithmic MTF and back-projected to create a noise CT image, which was then added to the reference CT image, finally providing a simulated reduced-dose CT image. The simulation performance was evaluated in terms of the degree of NPS similarity, the noise magnitude, the bow-tie filter effect, and the streak noise pattern at photon starvation sites with the set of phantom images. Results: The simulation results showed good agreement with actual low-dose CT images in terms of their visual appearance and in a quantitative evaluation test. The magnitude and shape of the NPS curves of the simulated low-dose images agreed well with those of real low-dose images, showing discrepancies of less than +/−3.2% in terms of the noise power at the peak height and +/−1.2% in terms of the spatial frequency at the peak height. The magnitudes of the noise measured for 12 different combinations the phantom size, tube current, and reconstruction kernel for the simulated and real low-dose images were very similar, with differences of 0.1 to 4.7%. Thep value for a statistical testing of the difference in the noise magnitude ranged from 0.99 to 0.11, showing that there was no difference statistically between the noise magnitudes of the real and simulated low-dose images using our method. The strength and pattern of the streak noise in an anthropomorphic phantom was also consistent with expectations. Conclusions: A novel reduced-dose CT simulation technique was developed which uses only CT images while not requiring raw sinogram data. Our method can provide realistic simulation results under reduced-dose conditions both in terms of the noise magnitude and the textual appearance. This technique has the potential to promote clinical research for patient dose reductions.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2011

Statistical validation of event predictors: A comparative study based on the field of seizure prediction

The prediction of events is of substantial interest in many research areas. To evaluate the performance of prediction methods, the statistical validation of these methods is of utmost importance. Here, we compare an analytical validation method to numerical approaches that are based on Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison is performed in the field of the prediction of epileptic seizures. In contrast to the analytical validation method, we found that for numerical validation methods insufficient but realistic sample sizes can lead to invalid high rates of false positive conclusions. Hence we outline necessary preconditions for sound statistical tests on above chance predictions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2013

A METHOD TO SEARCH FOR CORRELATIONS OF ULTRA-HIGH ENERGY COSMIC-RAY MASSES WITH THE LARGE-SCALE STRUCTURES IN THE LOCAL GALAXY DENSITY FIELD

One of the main goals of investigations using present and future giant extensive air shower (EAS) arrays is the mass composition of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs). A new approach to the problem is presented, combining the analysis of arrival directions with the statistical test of the paired EAS samples. One of the ideas of the method is to search for possible correlations between UHECR masses and their separate sources; for instance, if there are two sources in different areas of the celestial sphere injecting different nuclei, but the fluxes are comparable so that arrival directions are isotropic, then the aim is to reveal a difference in the mass composition of cosmic-ray fluxes. The method is based on a non-parametric statistical test-the Wilcoxon signed-rank routine-which does not depend on the populations fitting any parameterized distributions. Two particular algorithms are proposed: first, using measurements of the depth of the EAS maximum position in the atmosphere; and second, relying on the age variance of air showers initiated by different primary particles. The formulated method is applied to the Yakutsk array data, in order to demonstrate the possibility of searching for a difference in average mass composition between the two UHECR sets, arriving particularly from the supergalactic plane and a complementary region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model validation and error attribution for a drifting qubit

Qubit performance is often reported in terms of a variety of single-value metrics, each providing a facet of the underlying noise mechanism limiting performance. However, the value of these metrics may drift over long timescales, and reporting a single number for qubit performance fails to account for the low-frequency noise processes that give rise to this drift. Here, in this work, we demonstrate how we can use the distribution of these values to validate or invalidate candidate noise models. We focus on the case of randomized benchmarking (RB), where typically a single error rate is reported but this error rate can drift over time when multiple passes of RB are performed. We show that using a statistical test as simple as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic on the distribution of RB error rates can be used to rule out noise models, assuming the experiment is performed over a long enough time interval to capture relevant low frequency noise. With confidence in a noise model, we show how care must be exercised when performing error attribution using the distribution of drifting RB error rate.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2015

TESTING MICROVARIABILITY IN QUASAR DIFFERENTIAL LIGHT CURVES USING SEVERAL FIELD STARS

Microvariability consists of small timescale variations of low amplitude in the photometric light curves of quasars and represents an important tool to investigate their inner core. Detection of quasar microvariations is challenging because of their non-periodicity, as well as the need for high monitoring frequency and a high signal-to-noise ratio. Statistical tests developed for the analysis of quasar differential light curves usually show either low power or low reliability, or both. In this paper we compare two statistical procedures to perform tests on several stars with enhanced power and high reliability. We perform light curve simulations of variable quasars and non-variable stars and analyze them with statistical procedures developed from the F-test and the analysis of variance. The results show a large improvement in the power of both statistical probes and a larger reliability when several stars are included in the analysis. The results from the simulations agree with those obtained from observations of real quasars. The high power and high reliability of the tests discussed in this paper improve the results that can be obtained from short and long timescale variability studies. These techniques are not limited to quasar variability; on the contrary, they can be easily implemented for other sources, such as variable stars. Their applications to future research and to the analysis of large-field photometric monitoring archives could reveal new variable sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-317: Dosimetric Evaluation of Acuros XB Advanced Dose Calculation Algorithm in Head and Neck Patients

Purpose: The Acuros XB photon dose calculation algorithm is a newly implemented calculation technique within the Eclipse treatment planning system using deterministic solutions to the linear Boltzmann transport equations. The goal of this study is to assess the clinical impact of dose differences arising from a retrospective comparison of calculations performed using the Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) and Acuros XB on patients. Methods: Ten head and neck patients receiving intensity modulated radiation therapy were selected as a pilot study. Initial evaluation was based on the percentage of the planning target volume (PTV) covered by the prescription dose, minimum dose within the PTV, and dose differences in critical structures. For patients receiving boost plans, dosimetric evaluations were performed on the plan sum of the primary and boost plans. Results: Among the ten patients there were a total of 21 PTVs corresponding to primary and boost volumes. Using the same normalization within Eclipse, the average percentage of the PTVs receiving the prescription dose were 95.6% for AAA and Acuros XB. The average minimum doses within the PTVs, expressed as a percentage of the prescription to the volume, were 82.3% and 83.6% for AAA and Acuros XB respectively. Neither comparison showed differences with statistical significance when subjected to a paired t-test. Statistical significance was found in the average difference of the maximum dose for the mandible (242.5cGy, p=0.0005) and cord with a 5mm radial expansion (105.0cGy, p=0.0005) and in the median dose for the left parotid (25.0cGy, p=0.0423) and oral cavity (36.3cGy, p=0.002). Conclusion: The Acuros XB dose calculation algorithm did not exhibit significant differences in PTV coverage when compared to the AAA algorithm. Significant differences in critical structures are likely attributed to the structures proximity to high atomic number materials or air cavities, regions of known difficulty for the AAA algorithm.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Strong gravitational lensing statistics as a test of cosmogonic scenarios

Gravitational lensing statistics can provide a direct and powerful test of cosmic structure formation theories. Since lensing tests, directly, the magnitude of the nonlinear mass density fluctuations on lines of sight to distant objects, no issues of 'bias' (of mass fluctuations with respect to galaxy density fluctuations) exist here, although lensing observations provide their own ambiguities of interpretation. We develop numerical techniques for generating model density distributions with the very large spatial dynamic range required by lensing considerations and for identifying regions of the simulations capable of multiple image lensing in a conservative and computationally efficient way that should be accurate for splittings significantly larger than 3 seconds. Applying these techniques to existing standard Cold dark matter (CDM) (Omega = 1) and Primeval Baryon Isocurvature (PBI) (Omega = 0.2) simulations (normalized to the Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE) amplitude), we find that the CDM model predicts large splitting (greater than 8 seconds) lensing events roughly an order-of-magnitude more frequently than the PBI model. Under the reasonable but idealized assumption that lensing structrues can be modeled as singular isothermal spheres (SIS), the predictions can be directly compared to observations of lensing events in quasar samples. Several large splitting (Delta Theta is greater than 8 seconds) cases are predicted in the standard CDM model (the exact number being dependent on the treatment of amplification bias), whereas none is observed. In a formal sense, the comparison excludes the CDM model at high confidence (essentially for the same reason that CDM predicts excessive small-scale cosmic velocity dispersions.) A very rough assessment of low-density but flat CDM model (Omega = 0.3, Lambda/3H(sup 2 sub 0) = 0.7) indicates a far lower and probably acceptable level of lensing. The PBI model is consistent with, but not strongly tested by, the available lensing data, and other open models would presumably do as well as PBI. These preliminary conclusions and the assumptions on which they are based can be tested and the analysis can be applied to other cosmogonic models by straightforward extension of the work presented here.

Cen, Renyue↗
DOE OSTI2011

Symmetry of the CMB sky as a new test of its statistical isotropy. Non cosmological octupole?

In this article we propose a novel test for statistical anisotropy of the CMB ΔT( n-circumflex = (θ,φ)). The test is based on the fact, that the Galactic foregrounds have a remarkably strong symmetry with respect to their antipodal points with respect to the Galactic plane, while the cosmological signal should not be symmetric or asymmetric under these transitions. We have applied the test for the octupole component of the WMAP ILC 7 map, by looking at a{sub 3,1} and a{sub 3,3}, and their ratio to a{sub 3,2} both for real and imaginary values. We find abnormal symmetry of the octupole component at the level of 0.58%, compared to Monte Carlo simulations. By using the analysis of the phases of the octupole we found remarkably strong cross-correlations between the phases of the kinematic dipole and the ILC 7 octupole, in full agreement with previous results. We further test the multipole range 2 < l < 100, by investigating the ratio between the l+m = even and l+m = odd parts of power spectra. We compare the results to simulations of a Gaussian random sky, and find significant departure from the statistically isotropic and homogeneous case, for a very broad range of multipoles. We found that for the most prominent peaks of our estimator, the phases of the corresponding harmonics are coherent with phases of the octupole. We believe, our test would be very useful for detections of various types of residuals of the foreground and systematic effects at a very broad range of multipoles 2 ≤ l ≤ 1500−3000 for the forthcoming PLANCK CMB map, before any conclusions about primordial non-Gaussianity and statistical anisotropy of the CMB.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Verification of Electromagnetic Physics Models for Parallel Computing Architectures in the GeantV Project

An intensive R&D and programming effort is required to accomplish new challenges posed by future experimental high-energy particle physics (HEP) programs. The GeantV project aims to narrow the gap between the performance of the existing HEP detector simulation software and the ideal performance achievable, exploiting latest advances in computing technology. The project has developed a particle detector simulation prototype capable of transporting in parallel particles in complex geometries exploiting instruction level microparallelism (SIMD and SIMT), task-level parallelism (multithreading) and high-level parallelism (MPI), leveraging both the multi-core and the many-core opportunities. We present preliminary verification results concerning the electromagnetic (EM) physics models developed for parallel computing architectures within the GeantV project. In order to exploit the potential of vectorization and accelerators and to make the physics model effectively parallelizable, advanced sampling techniques have been implemented and tested. In this paper we introduce a set of automated statistical tests in order to verify the vectorized models by checking their consistency with the corresponding Geant4 models and to validate them against experimental data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Performance tests of signature extension algorithms

Comparative tests were performed on seven signature extension algorithms to evaluate their effectiveness in correcting for changes in atmospheric haze and sun angle in a Landsat scene. Four of the algorithms were cluster matching, and two were maximum likelihood algorithms. The seventh algorithm determined the haze level in both training and recognition segments and used a set of tables calculated from an atmospheric model to determine the affine transformation that corrects the training signatures for changes in sun angle and haze level. Three of the algorithms were tested on a simulated data set, and all of the algorithms were tested on consecutive-day data. The classification performance on the data sets using the algorithms is presented, along with results of statistical tests on the accuracy and proportion estimates. The three algorithms tested on the simulated data produced significant improvements over the results obtained using untransformed signatures. For the consecutive-day data, the tested algorithms produced improvements in most but not all cases. The tests indicated also that no statistically significant differences were noted among the algorithms.

Abotteen, R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Contrasting Perspectives Of Junior versus Senior NASA ISS Flight Controllers On Leadership And Cultural Issues

NASA flight controllers have always worked in a very demanding environment, but the International Space Station (ISS) poses even more challenges than prior missions. A recent NASA/Ames survey by Parke and Orasanu of NASA/Johnson flight controllers uncovered concerns about communications problems between American personnel and their international counterparts. To better understand these problems, we interviewed 14 senior and 12 junior ISS flight controllers at NASA/Johnson about leadership and cultural challenges they face and strategies for addressing these challenges. The qualitative interview data were coded and tabulated. Here we present quantitative analyses testing for differences between junior and senior controllers. Based on nonparametric statistical tests comparing responses across groups, the senior controllers were significantly more aware of the impact of working in dispersed teams, the context of constant change, and the upcoming multilateral challenges, while junior controllers were more aware of language and cultural issues. We consider our findings in light of other studies of controllers and other known differences between senior and junior controllers. For example, the fact that senior controllers had their formative early experience controlling pre-ISS short-duration Shuttle missions seems to have both positive and negative aspects, which are supported by our data. Our findings may also reflect gender differences, but we cannot unconfound this effect in our data because all the senior respondents were males. Many of the junior-senior differences are not only due to elapsed time on the job, but also due to a cohort effect. The findings of this study should be used for training curricula tailored differently for junior and senior controllers.

Clement, James L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Infusing Statistical Thinking into the NASA Quesst Community Test Campaign

Statistical thinking permeates many important decisions as NASA plans its Quesst mission, which will culminate in a series of community overflights using the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. Month-long longitudinal surveys will be deployed to assess human perception and annoyance to this new acoustic phenomenon. NASA works with a large contractor team to develop systems and methodologies to estimate noise doses, to test and field socio-acoustic surveys, and to study the relationship between the two quantities, dose and response, through appropriate choices of statistical models. This latter dose-response relationship will serve as an important tool as national and international noise regulators debate whether overland supersonic flights could be permitted once again within permissible noise limits. In this presentation we highlight several areas where statistical thinking has come into play, including issues of sampling, classification and data fusion, and analysis of longitudinal survey data that are subject to rare events and the consequences of measurement error. We note several operational constraints that shape the appeal or feasibility of some decisions on statistical approaches, and we identify several important remaining questions to be addressed.

Bayesian model↗
NASA NTRS2011

FDR doesn't Tell the Whole Story: Joint Influence of Effect Size and Covariance Structure on the Distribution of the False Discovery Proportions

As part of a 2009 Annals of Statistics paper, Gavrilov, Benjamini, and Sarkar report results of simulations that estimated the false discovery rate (FDR) for equally correlated test statistics using a well-known multiple-test procedure. In our study we estimate the distribution of the false discovery proportion (FDP) for the same procedure under a variety of correlation structures among multiple dependent variables in a MANOVA context. Specifically, we study the mean (the FDR), skewness, kurtosis, and percentiles of the FDP distribution in the case of multiple comparisons that give rise to correlated non-central t-statistics when results at several time periods are being compared to baseline. Even if the FDR achieves its nominal value, other aspects of the distribution of the FDP depend on the interaction between signed effect sizes and correlations among variables, proportion of true nulls, and number of dependent variables. We show examples where the mean FDP (the FDR) is 10% as designed, yet there is a surprising probability of having 30% or more false discoveries. Thus, in a real experiment, the proportion of false discoveries could be quite different from the stipulated FDR.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Angular filter refractometry analysis using simulated annealing [An improved method for characterizing plasma density profiles using angular filter refractometry]

Here, a new method of analysis for angular filter refractometry images was developed to characterize laser-produced, long-scale-length plasmas using an annealing algorithm to iterative converge upon a solution. Angular filter refractometry (AFR) is a novel technique used to characterize the density pro files of laser-produced, long-scale-length plasmas. A synthetic AFR image is constructed by a user-defined density profile described by eight parameters, and the algorithm systematically alters the parameters until the comparison is optimized. The optimization and statistical uncertainty calculation is based on a minimization of the $\chi$2 test statistic. The algorithm was successfully applied to experimental data of plasma expanding from a flat, laser-irradiated target, resulting in average uncertainty in the density profile of 5-10% in the region of interest.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗