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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on Np2Tc3Ge4 by Materials Project

Np2Tc3Ge4 crystallizes in the monoclinic P2_1/c space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Np is bonded in a 10-coordinate geometry to two equivalent Tc and eight Ge atoms. There are one shorter (2.89 Å) and one longer (2.98 Å) Np–Tc bond lengths. There are a spread of Np–Ge bond distances ranging from 2.94–3.10 Å. There are two inequivalent Tc sites. In the first Tc site, Tc is bonded in a 7-coordinate geometry to two equivalent Np and five Ge atoms. There are a spread of Tc–Ge bond distances ranging from 2.49–2.60 Å. In the second Tc site, Tc is bonded to six Ge atoms to form distorted corner-sharing TcGe6 octahedra. The corner-sharing octahedral tilt angles are 22°. All Tc–Ge bond lengths are 2.55 Å. There are two inequivalent Ge sites. In the first Ge site, Ge is bonded in a 8-coordinate geometry to four equivalent Np and four Tc atoms. In the second Ge site, Ge is bonded in a 10-coordinate geometry to four equivalent Np, four Tc, and two equivalent Ge atoms. Both Ge–Ge bond lengths are 2.86 Å.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles

African easterly waves (AEWs) are an important precursor or “seed” for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), with 60%–80% of major hurricanes observed to originate from AEWs. However, climate model simulations indicate that AEWs are not necessary to maintain annual Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, small ensembles suggest that AEWs may impact the spatial distribution and landfall of Atlantic TCs. Here, we investigated the influence of AEWs on the spatial distribution of Atlantic TC tracks and landfall using 50-member ensembles of TC-permitting regional model simulations for five hurricane seasons characterized by different levels of TC activity. The control simulations are seasonal hindcasts in which AEWs were prescribed through the eastern lateral boundary condition using reanalysis. In the experiments, we suppressed AEWs by applying a 2–10 day filter to the eastern lateral boundary condition. In response to AEW suppression, we discovered statistically significant increases in Atlantic TC frequency (10%–26%) and landfall (16%–44%), a westward shift in TC genesis location and tracks with increased landfall over the Caribbean Islands, southwestern Gulf Coast, and southeastern US coast, and increases in mid-tropospheric relative humidity in the main development region. In addition, we evaluated TC genesis mechanisms in the absence of AEWs and found evidence that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) intensified and extended northward, resulting in ITCZ wave-breaking that shed vortices which served as TC seeds. By uncovering the connections between TC seed types and the likelihood of TC landfall, this research can provide Atlantic coastal and island communities with useful information to prepare for TC impacts.

African easterly waves↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Rain Rate over the Ocean Using Numerical Simulations

In this study, the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and rain rate over the ocean is investigated using a full-physics numerical model (WRF) and a physics-based TC rainfall model (TCR). TC intensity is found to be nearly linearly correlated with the average rain rate in the inner core [~0.97 (mm h –1 m –2 )/(m s –1 )], while the correlation is weak at outer radii. This difference is induced because TC intensity is significantly correlated with both the vertical velocity and specific humidity in the inner core but is not significantly correlated with the vertical velocity in the outer radii. Further investigation shows that the intensity–rain-rate relationship at the outer radii is influenced by the TC evolution stage. The rain rate for the outer radii is positively correlated with TC intensity for nondecaying TCs, while this correlation is reduced for decaying TCs due to systematic downdrafts in the outer radii. In the context of climate change, the sensitivity of the TC rain rate to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be +9% per 1 K increase of SST, roughly the product of the sensitivity of TC intensity to SST (+3%) and the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling (+7%). Coupled with synthetic storms, evolution of the TC rain rate over the twenty-first century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario is projected by the TCR (calibrated with the WRF simulations). The annual increase rates of averaged TC rain rate are 0.17% and 0.20% for the inner core and outer radii, respectively, larger than the annual increase rate of TC intensity (0.046%) but comparable to that of cube of intensity (0.18%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Zero Valent Iron for Reductive Removal of Technetium-99 from Aqueous Sulfate Solutions - 20347

This research investigates the reductive removal of technetium-99 ({sup 99}Tc) by zero valent iron (ZVI) from low activity waste (LAW) off-gas condensate simulant as a secondary treatment after recovery from vitrification planned at the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Due to its high volatility, only a fraction of Tc{sup (VII)} will be incorporated into glass waste forms. Volatilized Tc will be captured by an off-gas treatment system with current plans to recycle off-gas condensate back to the vitrification facility. The scheme with off-gas recycling will increase Tc loading in the glass waste, but will also increase the concentrations of sulfate, halides, and other problematic constituents impeding overall LAW processing and increasing volume of the glass product. This study focuses on Tc{sup (VII)} removal by ZVI as a feasible pathway to minimize off-gas condensate recycling, which may result in a reduction in the volumes of LAW waste to be immobilized and subsequent cost savings. ZVI is an established treatment agent for redox-active contaminants such as trichloroethylene, nitrate, arsenic, chromium, phenol, and others. It is a commercially available and cost-effective material. Our previous experiments showed that ZVI is very efficient for the reductive removal of {sup 99}Tc. In this work we studied ZVI oxidation under aerobic conditions at pH 7 with 0.1 M Na{sub 2}SO{sub 4} solution (ionic strength, IS, 0.3 M) in the presence and absence of {sup 99}Tc. The concentration of {sup 99}Tc and the changes in pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) of the simulated solutions were monitored over 8 days. The formation of iron oxide phases was probed by X-ray diffraction (XRD). Obtained results suggest that ZVI contact time with {sup 99}Tc containing solutions for 6 hours resulted in nearly complete removal of {sup 99}Tc from the aqueous phase. XRD analysis showed that the oxidation of ZVI is rapid with formation of magnetite (Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4}) with minor percentage of goethite and maghemite. This work is a part of a larger set of studies investigating the feasibility of {sup 99}Tc reductive removal from the LAW off-gas condensate. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on Tc2P3 by Materials Project

Tc2P3 crystallizes in the monoclinic C2/m space group. The structure is three-dimensional. there are two inequivalent Tc+0.50+ sites. In the first Tc+0.50+ site, Tc+0.50+ is bonded to six P+0.33- atoms to form a mixture of distorted face, edge, and corner-sharing TcP6 octahedra. The corner-sharing octahedra tilt angles range from 45–57°. There are a spread of Tc–P bond distances ranging from 2.30–2.75 Å. In the second Tc+0.50+ site, Tc+0.50+ is bonded to six P+0.33- atoms to form a mixture of face, edge, and corner-sharing TcP6 octahedra. The corner-sharing octahedra tilt angles range from 45–57°. There are a spread of Tc–P bond distances ranging from 2.40–2.43 Å. There are three inequivalent P+0.33- sites. In the first P+0.33- site, P+0.33- is bonded in a 5-coordinate geometry to four Tc+0.50+ and one P+0.33- atom. The P–P bond length is 2.24 Å. In the second P+0.33- site, P+0.33- is bonded in a 4-coordinate geometry to four Tc+0.50+ atoms. In the third P+0.33- site, P+0.33- is bonded in a 5-coordinate geometry to four Tc+0.50+ and one P+0.33- atom. The P–P bond length is 2.41 Å.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on U4Tc7Ge6 by Materials Project

U4Tc7Ge6 crystallizes in the cubic Im-3m space group. The structure is three-dimensional. U is bonded to six equivalent Tc and six equivalent Ge atoms to form UTc6Ge6 cuboctahedra that share corners with twelve equivalent UTc6Ge6 cuboctahedra, corners with twelve equivalent TcU4Ge4 cuboctahedra, edges with six equivalent TcU4Ge4 cuboctahedra, faces with six equivalent UTc6Ge6 cuboctahedra, and faces with two equivalent TcGe6 octahedra. All U–Tc bond lengths are 2.95 Å. All U–Ge bond lengths are 2.99 Å. There are two inequivalent Tc sites. In the first Tc site, Tc is bonded to four equivalent U and four equivalent Ge atoms to form distorted TcU4Ge4 cuboctahedra that share corners with eight equivalent UTc6Ge6 cuboctahedra, corners with twelve equivalent TcU4Ge4 cuboctahedra, corners with four equivalent TcGe6 octahedra, edges with two equivalent TcU4Ge4 cuboctahedra, edges with four equivalent UTc6Ge6 cuboctahedra, and faces with four equivalent TcU4Ge4 cuboctahedra. The corner-sharing octahedral tilt angles are 52°. All Tc–Ge bond lengths are 2.63 Å. In the second Tc site, Tc is bonded to six equivalent Ge atoms to form TcGe6 octahedra that share corners with twenty-four equivalent TcU4Ge4 cuboctahedra and faces with eight equivalent UTc6Ge6 cuboctahedra. All Tc–Ge bond lengths are 2.57 Å. Ge is bonded in a 9-coordinate geometry to four equivalent U and five Tc atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metallic Technetium Sequestration in Nickel Core/Shell Microstructure during Fe(OH)2 Transformation with Ni doping

This study investigates the impacts of Ni doping on technetium-99 (Tc) sequestration in aqueous solutions through transformation of Fe(OH)2(s) to iron spinel (magnetite) under alkaline conditions. Extensive solid characterization was performed for the mineral phases produced, as well as the Tc/Ni speciation and distribution within these phases. X-ray diffraction results show that iron spinel was the dominant mineral product without detectable Ni incorporation. The doped Ni ions mainly precipitated as fine Fe/Ni oxide/hydroxide particles, including strongly reduced nanometer?sized spheroidal Ni-rich and metallic Ni phases. High-resolution analytical scanning transmission electron microscopy using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy on the produced solid samples (focused ion beam-prepared specimens) revealed three Tc distribution domains dominated by nanocrystals and, especially, a Tc-rich metallic phase. Instances of metallic Tc were specifically found in spheroidal, Ni-rich and metallic nanoparticles exhibiting a core/shell microstructure that suggests strong reduction and sequential precipitation of Ni-Tc-Ni. Mass balance analysis showed nearly 100% Tc removal from the 4.8 × 10-4 M Tc solutions. The finding of the metallic Tc encapsulation indicates that Tc sequestration through Ni-doped Fe(OH)2(s)?to?iron spinel transformation process likely provides an alternative treatment pathway for Tc removal and could be combined into further waste treatment approaches.

Wang, Guohui↗
DOE OSTI2021

Micrometer-sized Magnetite Synthesis using Fe(OH)2(s) as a Precursor for Technetium Sequestration from Liquid Nuclear Waste Streams

Systematic batch experiments under variable adjusted physicochemical conditions were conducted to explore optimization of micrometer-sized magnetite synthesis for Tc sequestration from radionuclide waste streams using Fe(OH)2(s) as the precursor. Extensive solid characterization using x-ray diffraction and spectroscopic methods was performed to assess changes in particle morphology and size distribution, as well as Tc speciation and incorporation, in the produced mineral phases. The results show that the solution pH, temperature, and oxidation kinetics play key roles in the final mineral products. Micrometer-sized magnetite crystals (0.62-0.96 µm on average) with well-defined dodecahedral or octahedral structures were synthesized under near neutral (~pH 8) or alkaline (~pH13) conditions at 75 °C, respectively; whereas goethite dominated the end products at room temperature. An increase in pH at 75 °C improved Tc removal from 27% (near neutral pH) to 42% (alkaline pH), but the removal process remained inhibited by redox competitive Cr(VI) present in the waste streams. By adding additional Fe(II) to the system, Tc sequestration was dramatically improved to up to 87% without observable changes in the solid product. The sequestrated Tc existed as TcO2·2H2O and/or Tc(IV) incorporated into magnetite, where extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy showed that more Tc was incorporated into magnetite at elevated temperatures and pH conditions, with complete Tc(IV) incorporation into magnetite occurring under 75 °C-pH 13 conditions. Our results indicate that optimal micrometer-sized magnetite can be produced for Tc sequestration by reacting Fe(OH)2(s) with a waste stream simulant under elevated pH (~13) and temperature (75 °C) conditions. The incorporation of reduced Tc(IV) into stable micrometer-sized magnetite provides a viable supplemental immobilizing technology that may be used to improve nuclear waste treatment and disposal needs.

Wang, Guohui↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on KSiTc2 by Materials Project

KTc2Si is Fluorite-derived structured and crystallizes in the cubic F-43m space group. The structure is three-dimensional. K1+ is bonded in a body-centered cubic geometry to four equivalent Tc+1.50+ and four equivalent Si4- atoms. All K–Tc bond lengths are 2.79 Å. All K–Si bond lengths are 2.79 Å. There are two inequivalent Tc+1.50+ sites. In the first Tc+1.50+ site, Tc+1.50+ is bonded to four equivalent Si4- atoms to form corner-sharing TcSi4 tetrahedra. All Tc–Si bond lengths are 2.79 Å. In the second Tc+1.50+ site, Tc+1.50+ is bonded to four equivalent K1+ atoms to form TcK4 tetrahedra that share corners with four equivalent SiK4Tc4 tetrahedra, corners with twelve equivalent TcK4 tetrahedra, and edges with six equivalent SiK4Tc4 tetrahedra. Si4- is bonded to four equivalent K1+ and four equivalent Tc+1.50+ atoms to form distorted SiK4Tc4 tetrahedra that share corners with four equivalent TcK4 tetrahedra, edges with six equivalent TcK4 tetrahedra, and edges with twelve equivalent SiK4Tc4 tetrahedra.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Materials Data on Tc4N3 by Materials Project

Tc4N3 is MAX Phase-derived structured and crystallizes in the trigonal R-3m space group. The structure is two-dimensional and consists of three Tc4N3 sheets oriented in the (0, 0, 1) direction. there are two inequivalent Tc+2.25+ sites. In the first Tc+2.25+ site, Tc+2.25+ is bonded to six N3- atoms to form a mixture of edge and corner-sharing TcN6 octahedra. The corner-sharing octahedral tilt angles are 0°. There are three shorter (2.17 Å) and three longer (2.20 Å) Tc–N bond lengths. In the second Tc+2.25+ site, Tc+2.25+ is bonded in a 3-coordinate geometry to three equivalent N3- atoms. All Tc–N bond lengths are 2.15 Å. There are two inequivalent N3- sites. In the first N3- site, N3- is bonded to six Tc+2.25+ atoms to form a mixture of edge and corner-sharing NTc6 octahedra. The corner-sharing octahedral tilt angles are 1°. In the second N3- site, N3- is bonded to six equivalent Tc+2.25+ atoms to form a mixture of distorted edge and corner-sharing NTc6 octahedra. The corner-sharing octahedral tilt angles are 1°.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating the Physical Drivers for the Increasing Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard in the United States

In this study, we investigate both the changes of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard in the United States under climate change and the relative importance of the factors that cause the changes. We find that under the SSP5 8.5 scenario, the 100-year TC rainfall level can increase by up to 320% along the U.S. coastline by the end of this century. The influence of TC rainfall-producing ability increase is more significant than the influence of TC frequency increase on the increase of the 100-year TC rainfall level (up to 180% vs. 60% increase). Among the different physical drivers for the increase in storm rainfall-producing ability, the increase of TC intensity is the leading factor, followed by changes in TC duration and atmospheric temperature. The projected increase of TC rainfall hazard is robust against the uncertainty in the TC frequency projection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Influence of Large-Scale Radiation Anomalies on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The response of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to sea surface warming is uncertain in climate models. We hypothesize that one source of uncertainty is the anomalies of large-scale atmospheric radiation in response to climate change, and whose influence on TC frequency is investigated. Given two atmospheric models with opposite TC frequency responses to uniform sea surface warming, we interchange their atmospheric radiation anomalies in experiments with prescribed radiative heating rates. The largest model discrepancy occurs in the western North Pacific, where the TC frequency tends to increase with anomalous large-scale ascent caused by prescribed positive radiation anomalies, while the TC frequency tends to decrease with anomalous large-scale descent caused by prescribed negative radiation anomalies. The model spread in TC frequency response is approximated by the model spread in the frequency response of pre-TC vortices (seeds), which is explained by changes in the large-scale circulation using a downscaling formula known as the seed propensity index. We further generalize the index to predict the influence of large-scale radiation anomalies on TC seed frequency. The results show that model spread in TC and seed frequency response can be reduced when constraining the large-scale radiation anomalies. Significance Statement It is difficult to predict whether tropical cyclones will occur more or less frequently in the future and by how much. We show that tropical cyclone frequency is strongly influenced by the global pattern of heating and cooling due to radiation, a process that has been neglected in existing theories. Our theory improves understanding of how tropical cyclones respond to climate change, explaining why one model may predict a frequency increase while a different but equally realistic model may predict a frequency decrease. One reason for the difficulty in predicting tropical cyclone frequency is found to be the difficulty in predicting how global cloud distribution will change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Heavy Precipitation throughout the Entire Tropical Cyclone Life Cycle

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated precipitation can have devastating impacts on the areas affected, with outcomes ranging from mudslides to inland flash flooding. Previous studies have used a fixed radius around the TC to isolate storm-related precipitation. One previous study instead used a dynamic radius of 8 m s −1 winds, but the wind field of the TC can deteriorate or shift quickly after landfall or the onset of extratropical transition (ET). This study uses a dynamical radius derived from the 500-hPa geopotential height in and around the TC to define TC- and post-tropical cyclone (PTC)-related heavy precipitation, allowing for the analysis of precipitation with tropical origins after the official demise of the original TC. Climatologies are constructed, indicating a maximum in TC- and PTC-related heavy precipitation in the west North Pacific and a secondary maximum in the east North Pacific. PTC-related heavy precipitation accounts for as much as 40% of the annual heavy precipitation in the northwest portion of the west North Pacific basin and 3.13% of heavy precipitation globally. We observe that the major hurricane stage contributes on average 2.6% of the global TC- and PTC-related precipitation, while the less intense but more common tropical storm stages of the TC life cycle contribute 85.7% of this observed precipitation. This analysis framework can be further extended to assess model biases and climate projections of TC and PTC precipitation.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗