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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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120 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper III: Cosmological Structure and Predictions

This paper develops the cosmological consequences of the replication-driven cosmogenesis framework introduced in Paper I and the emergent geometric structure established in Paper II. After the replication epoch freezes out, the coherent sector occupies a finite spectral band and contains a population of excited states. The relaxation of these excited coherent configurations does not produce coherent radiation; instead, all released energy flows into the incoherent substrate, where the randomizer acts as a rapid phase-scrambling mechanism. This process generates an effectively thermal radiation bath, providing a natural reheating mechanism that requires neither inflaton oscillations nor scalar-field potentials, and can be contrasted with standard scenarios of nonperturbative reheating dynamics. Subsequent symmetry-breaking transitions in the coherent vacuum inject additional radiation, yielding a multi-stage thermal history with well-defined energy transfers. We derive the effective equations of state for each component—the cosmological vacuum, the coherent vacuum, and the radiation bath—and show how their interplay produces an FRW-like expansion. The discrete sequence of coherent-state relaxations imprints a distinctive multi-peaked stochastic gravitational-wave background, whose spectral structure reflects the underlying hierarchy of coherent frequencies. Potential observational signatures in the LISA and mid-band frequency ranges are highlighted, providing concrete avenues to test this replication-based cosmological framework in the context of standard cosmological gravitational-wave backgrounds and LISA-oriented forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic modeling of hot tail runaway electron generation during plasma disruptions using the JOREK code

The generation of runaway electrons (REs) during disruptions poses a significant challenge for the operation of tokamaks. The production of these high-energy electrons can cause substantial damage, particularly when the plasma current is high, making it a critical concern for ITER. For the high-temperature plasmas anticipated in ITER, the primary generation of REs may be dominated by the hot tail mechanism, which consists of the acceleration of hot electrons from the pre-disruption population which have not yet thermalized with the bulk following the rapid cooling of the plasma. To account for the significant 3D effects on RE production, a hot tail modeling framework has been developed within the non-linear 3D extended MHD code JOREK. This paper presents the structure of this framework, which is based on test electrons evolving in MHD fields. The verification of the method shows good agreement with the reference DREAM code for 0D test cases, as well as for axisymmetric simulations of 15 MA ITER H-mode disruption scenarios. Furthermore, a proof-of-principle application to a DIII-D case demonstrates the framework’s capability to capture for the first time the hot tail generation in 3D MHD simulations in realistic geometry. Preliminary results suggest that the production of REs is significantly reduced by stochastic losses.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of Grand-design and Flocculent spirals from SDSS using deep convolutional neural network

ABSTRACT Spiral galaxies can be classified into the Grand-designs and Flocculents based on the nature of their spiral arms. The Grand-designs exhibit almost continuous and high contrast spiral arms and are believed to be driven by stationary density waves, while the Flocculents have patchy and low-contrast spiral features and are primarily stochastic in origin. We train a deep convolutional neural network model to classify spirals into Grand-designs and Flocculents, with a testing accuracy of $\mathrm{97.2{{\ \rm per\ cent}}}$. We then use the above model for classifying 1354 spirals from the SDSS. Out of these, 721 were identified as Flocculents, and the rest as Grand-designs. Interestingly, we find the mean asymptotic rotational velocities of our newly classified Grand-designs and Flocculents are 218 ± 86 and 146 ± 67 km s−1, respectively, indicating that the Grand-designs are mostly the high-mass and the Flocculents the intermediate-mass spirals. This is further corroborated by the observation that the mean morphological indices of the Grand-designs and Flocculents are 2.6 ± 1.8 and 4.7 ± 1.9, respectively, implying that the Flocculents primarily consist of a late-type galaxy population in contrast to the Grand-designs. Finally, an almost equal fraction of bars ∼0.3 in both the classes of spiral galaxies reveals that the presence of a bar component does not regulate the type of spiral arm hosted by a galaxy. Our results may have important implications for formation and evolution of spiral arms in galaxies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Lumped Stochastic Model of Coupled Neutronic Assemblies

The objective of the present work is to apply the Harris ansatz to coupled assemblies in a lumped setting, i.e., ignoring the neutron phase dependence, which hitherto has not been considered. A Master equation for the single-time joint distribution of neutron number in each assembly, accounting for transfer of neutrons from one assembly to another via leakage transition probabilities and intercept or view factors is derived from which equations for the mean and variance in each assembly are developed. Because of the neutronic coupling, it is necessary to additionally compute the correlation function between pairs of assemblies which gives an expanded set of moment equations to solve. The reactivity of each assembly is allowed to vary with time, although a formal mechanism that is responsible for reactivity coupling between assemblies is not considered or proposed. Following Harris, it is then hypothesized that the number distribution in each assembly is a gamma distribution with assembly-specific mean and variance computed exactly from the moment equations. Illustrative numerical results are presented for the moments of a system of four coupled assemblies under various reactivity and neutronic coupling scenarios. The gamma distribution is then used to compute the probability that the neutron population exceeds a threshold value in any assembly. The report concludes with a discussion of recommended further work on this problem.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

PPPL Report on Reduced Modeling of Fusion Alpha Transport in ARC Burning Plasmas

We are reporting on the modeling of fusion alpha particle transport in the planned ARC fusion device being designed by the CFS (Commonwealth Fusion Systems: https://cfs.energy). The ARC tokamak is designed to operate in a burning-plasma regime characterized by a substantial population of fusion-born alpha particles. Alfvén eigenmode (AE) stability is assessed both analytically and numerically, incorporating alpha-particle drive, ion Landau, and radiative damping from thermal species and collisional damping from trapped electrons. Regions of unstable and near-threshold AE activity are mapped across ARC’s operational parameter space. Linear stability analysis with NOVA indicates multiple, often marginally unstable AEs, extending to toroidal mode numbers up to n= 30. The present report focuses on the ARC flat-top operating point prior to the sawtooth event. Alpha-particle transport on timescales exceeding the neoclassical slowing-down time is assessed using the NUBEAM module [1][2] of the TRANSP code [3], employing transport coefficients derived from the RBQ quasilinear modeling (cf. Appendix B). These global simulations identify favorable and unfavorable operating regimes with respect to alpha confinement, pressure redistribution, and overall alpha-heating efficiency. We also evaluate additional transport mechanisms—including neoclassical tearing mode (TM)–induced stochasticity, sawtooth-driven redistribution, and toroidal-field ripple using the kick model (cf. Appendix C) which makes use of the guiding-center code ORBIT, see Section 5. The kick model is integrated into TRANSP to enable self-consistent predictions of alpha-driven current formation and sustainment within the ARC scenario. Sensitivity scans are performed over the mode frequency, rational-surface alignment, island width, mode amplitude, and proximity of the limiter to the plasma. Our study provides an initial, physics-based guidance for machine design, operational planning, and equilibrium control, ensuring adequate alpha confinement and robust self-heating performance in ARC. Our simulations mostly targeted worst case scenarios, e.g. for TMs and sawteeth. Overall, we expect benign effects for the ARC scenario investigated in this work on fusion alpha confinement and losses in the presence of AEs, tearing modes and sawteeth. This report addresses three thrusts identified at the outset. The first thrust focuses on analytic estimates of the parametric dependencies of EP relaxation based on local AE stability simulations (Section 3). The second thrust involves global evaluations of AE stability using the NOVA, RBQ, and NUBEAM codes (Section 4). Finally, we investigate alpha-particle transport driven by low-frequency instabilities associated with sawteeth and tearing modes (Section 5).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bootstrap-determined p values in lattice QCD

We present a general method to determine the probability that stochastic Monte Carlo data, in particular those generated in a lattice QCD calculation, would have been obtained were that data drawn from the distribution predicted by a given theoretical hypothesis. Such a probability, or p -value, is often used as an important heuristic measure of the validity of that hypothesis. The proposed method offers the benefit that it remains usable in cases where the standard Hotelling T 2 methods based on the conventional χ 2 statistic do not apply, such as for uncorrelated fits. Specifically, we analyze q 2 , defined as the correlated χ 2 statistic obtained using an arbitrary covariance matrix estimator, and show how to use the bootstrap as a data-driven method to determine the expected distribution of q 2 for a given hypothesis with minimal assumptions. This distribution can then be used to determine the p -value for a fit to the data. We also describe a bootstrap approach for quantifying the impact upon this p -value of estimating population parameters from a single ensemble of N samples. The overall method is accurate up to a 1 / N bias which we do not attempt to quantify. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

A physics-constrained deep learning treatment of runaway electron dynamics

An adjoint formulation leveraging a physics-informed neural network (PINN) is employed to advance the density moment of a runaway electron (RE) distribution forward in time. A distinguishing feature of this approach is that once the adjoint problem is solved, its solution can be used to project the RE density forward in time for an arbitrary initial momentum space distribution of REs. Furthermore, by employing a PINN, a parametric solution to the adjoint problem can be learned. Thus, once trained, this adjoint-deep learning framework is able to efficiently project the RE density forward in time across various plasma conditions while still including a fully kinetic description of RE dynamics. As an example application, the temporal evolution of the density of primary electrons is studied, with particular emphasis on evaluating the decay of a RE population when below threshold. Predictions from the adjoint-deep learning framework are found to be in good agreement with a traditional relativistic electron Fokker–Planck solver, for several distinct initial conditions, and across an array of physics parameters. Once trained, the PINN thus provides a means of generating RE density time histories with exceptionally low online execution time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: Anatomical-morphological basis and parameter evaluation

Radiation exposure of the hematopoietic system that results in a radiation dose to bone marrow of more than 100 mGy leads to an increase in the risk of leukemia in humans. Excess relative risk of leukemia was observed in cohorts whose members lived in the territories of the Southern Urals that were radioactively contaminated in the 1950s. As part of the dosimetric support of epidemiological studies of these cohorts, an original methodology for stochastic bone dosimetric modeling was developed, termed the Stochastic Parametric Skeletal Dosimetry (SPSD) model. The purpose of this work was to present the anatomical and morphological bases of the SPSD model, which includes an assessment of the parameters of the microstructure of the trabecular bone in the hematopoietic areas of the human skeleton, as well as a description of the macrostructural division (segmentation) of hematopoietic areas into simple bone segments. As a result, an anatomical-morphological basis of the SPSD model was created based on published data. Data collection work included the analysis of original articles, atlases, manuals, monographs and the formation of primary data files. Data on the duration of hematopoiesis in various parts of the skeleton; and data on age-related changes in the microstructure and linear dimensions of human bones and their segments were analyzed. The paper describes the full set of parameters to be used for the dosimetric model for newborns, children aged 1, 5 and 10 years, as well as for adolescents aged 15 years and adults; for the latter, sex differences in bone size were considered. In total, the SPSD model includes 289 unique basic (bone) phantom segments, each of which is described by 7 or more parameters describing the microstructure, thickness of the cortical layer and linear dimensions. Population variability was estimated for each parameter. The approach to SPSD modeling, i.e., the use of simple geometric shapes, was successfully verified using independent datasets on bone masses and volumes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Drift kinetic theory of alpha transport by tokamak perturbations

We report that upcoming tokamak experiments fuelled with deuterium and tritium are expected to have large alpha particle populations. Such experiments motivate new attention to the theory of alpha particle confinement and transport. A key topic is the interaction of alpha particles with perturbations to the tokamak fields, including those from ripple and magnetohydrodynamic modes like Alfvén eigenmodes. These perturbations can transport alphas, leading to changed localization of alpha heating, loss of alpha power and damage to device walls. Alpha interaction with these perturbations is often studied with single-particle theory. In contrast, we derive a drift kinetic theory to calculate the alpha heat flux resulting from arbitrary perturbation frequency and periodicity (provided these can be studied drift kinetically). Novel features of the theory include the retention of a large effective collision frequency resulting from the resonant alpha collisional boundary layer, correlated interactions over many poloidal transits and finite orbit effects. Heat fluxes are considered for the example cases of ripple and the toroidal Alfvén eigenmode (TAE). The ripple heat flux is small. The TAE heat flux is significant and scales with the square of the perturbation amplitude, allowing the derivation of constraints on mode amplitude for avoidance of significant alpha depletion. A simple saturation condition suggests that TAEs in one upcoming experiment will not cause significant alpha transport via the mechanisms in this theory. However, saturation above the level suggested by the simple condition, but within numerical and experimental experience, which could be accompanied by the onset of stochasticity, could cause significant transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generalized master equation for particle transport in binary random media with renewal statistics

Particle transport in binary stochastic mixtures is classically modeled assuming Markovian or exponential mixing statistics but in many applications material memory invalidates the Markov assumption. For non-Markovian mixing characterized by alternating renewal processes, a transport-theoretic framework is presented that provides an exact description of transport in nonscattering random binary media with general non-exponential statistics. Our approach is to Markovianize the problem by augmenting the {material type, particle flux} state space with the age or distance from the last interface. A Chapman-Kolmogorov equation is formulated for the joint probability density of the material type, particle flux, and age, and subsequently reduced to a generalized Master equation (GME) in differential form. This constitutes the primary result of this work. A state-updating Monte Carlo algorithm consistent with the GME is developed and benchmarked against analytical solutions for multiple chord-length laws. For purely absorbing renewal statistical media, the GME reproduces analytical benchmarks for the equilibrium age distribution, interior mean/variance of material-conditioned fluxes, and boundary transmittance. Simulations further demonstrate that a Markov (exponential) approximation of non-exponential statistics can introduce large errors in transmittance and interior flux profiles. Lastly, the reintroduction of memory due to scattering is briefly addressed through heuristic considerations.

Fluctuations & noise↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗