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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

National Academy of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, NASA Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey (Chapter 3)

Our inner Solar System has the four terrestrial planets, Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, along with Earth’s large Moon, two small moons of Mars, dwarf planet Ceres, numerous 100-km class asteroids, and a multitude of small bodies that populate the asteroid belt and the inner planet region. To what extent does this structure reflect a deterministic outcome of general Solar System formation processes, and how much of it is instead a consequence of stochastic events that would change in unpredictable ways if the system’s formation could be rerun? This fundamental question motivates scientific investigations of the inner Solar System, with implications not only for understanding our own planet’s origin but also for the origin of planetary systems and Earth-like planets beyond our own.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Long-Duration Gamma-Ray Flares and High-Energy Solar Energetic Particles

Little is known about the origin of the high-energy and sustained emission from solar long-duration gamma-ray flares (LDGRFs) identified with the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, the Solar Maximum Mission, and now Fermi. Though the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) has identified dozens of flares with LDGRF signatures, the nature of this phenomenon has been a challenge to explain due to both extreme energies and long durations. The highest-energy emission has generally been attributed to pion production from the interaction of 300 MeV protons with the ambient matter. The extended duration suggests that particle acceleration occurs over large volumes extending high in the corona, either from stochastic acceleration within large coronal loops or from back precipitation from coronal mass ejection–driven shocks. It is possible to test these models by making a direct comparison between the properties of the accelerated ion population producing the γ-ray emission derived from the Fermi/LAT observations and the characteristics of solar energetic particles (SEPs) measured by the Payload for Matter-Antimatter Exploration and Light Nuclei Astrophysics spacecraft in the energy range corresponding to the pion-related emission detected with Fermi. For 14 of these events, we compare the two populations—SEPs in space and the interacting particles at the Sun—and discuss the implications in terms of potential sources. Our analysis shows that the two proton numbers are poorly correlated, with their ratio spanning more than 5 orders of magnitude, suggesting that the back precipitation of shock-acceleration particles is unlikely to be the source of the F emission.

Nolfo, G. A. de↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don’t yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic shock waves as a candidate mechanism for the formation of the He I 10830-A line in cool giant stars

The question of whether strong shocks produced in time-dependent stochastic wave models can explain the formation of the He I 10830-A line in cool giant stars is examined. The research is based on the ab initio chromosphere model for Arcturus by Cuntz (1987), showing that a stochastic distribution of wave periods leads to overtaking and merging of shocks, which occasionally produce very strong shocks with temperatures larger than 40,000 K in the postshock regions. These temperatures can easily produce a significant population in the 2s 3S state by electron collisional excitation. The 10830-A line occurs in absorption when the densities in the shocks exceed 10 million/cu cm.

Cuntz, Manfred↗
NASA NTRS2018

The NANOGrav 11 Year Data Set: Pulsar-Timing Constraints on the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the newly released 11 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). While we find no evidence for a GWB, we place constraints on a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries, a network of decaying cosmic strings, and a primordial GWB. For the first time, we find that the GWB constraints are sensitive to the solar system ephemeris (SSE) model used and that SSE errors can mimic a GWB signal. We developed an approach that bridges systematic SSE differences, producing the first pulsar-timing array (PTA) constraints that are robust against SSE errors. We thus place a 95% upper limit on the GW-strain amplitude of A (sub GWB) < 1.45 × 10 (exp -15) at a frequency of f=1 yr(exp -1) for a fiducial f (exp -2/3) power-law spectrum and with interpulsar correlations modeled. This is a factor of approximately 2 improvement over the NANOGrav nine-year limit calculated using the same procedure. Previous PTA upper limits on the GWB (as well as their astrophysical and cosmological interpretations) will need revision in light of SSE systematic errors. We use our constraints to characterize the combined influence on the GWB of the stellar mass density in galactic cores, the eccentricity of SMBH binaries, and SMBH-galactic-bulge scaling relationships. We constrain the cosmic-string tension using recent simulations, yielding an SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit of G (sub mu) < 5.3 × 10(exp -11) - a factor of approximately 2 better than the published NANOGrav nine-year constraints. Our SSE-marginalized 95% upper limit on the energy density of a primordial GWB (for a radiation-dominated post-inflation universe) is omega (sub GWB)(f) h (exp 2) < 3.4 × 10 (exp -10).

Supermassive Black Holes↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines

Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Incomplete segregation of endorgan-specific vestibular ganglion cells in mice and rats

The endorgan-specific distribution of vestibular ganglion cells was studied in neonatal and postnatal rats and mice using indocarbocyanine dye (DiI) and dextran amines for retrograde and anterograde labeling. Retrograde DiI tracing from the anterior vertical canal labeled neurons scattered throughout the whole superior vestibular ganglion, with denser labeling at the dorsal and central regions. Horizontal canal neurons were scattered along the dorsoventral axis with more clustering toward the dorsal and ventral poles of this axis. Utricular ganglion cells occupied predominantly the central region of the superior vestibular ganglion. This utricular population overlapped with both the anterior vertical and horizontal canals' ganglion cells. Posterior vertical canal neurons were clustered in the posterior part of the inferior vestibular ganglion. The saccular neurons were distributed in the two parts of the vestibular ganglion, the superior and inferior ganglia. Within the inferior ganglion, the saccular neurons were clustered in the anterior part. In the superior ganglion, the saccular neurons were widely scattered throughout the whole ganglion with more numerous neurons at the posterior half. Small and large neurons were labeled from all endorgans. Examination of the fiber trajectory within the superior division of the vestibular nerve showed no clear lamination of the fibers innervating the different endorgans. These results demonstrate an overlapping pattern between the different populations within the superior ganglion, while in the inferior ganglion, the posterior canal and saccular neurons show tighter clustering but incomplete segregation. This distribution implies that the ganglion cells are assigned for their target during development in a stochastic rather than topographical fashion.

NASA Discipline Developmental Biology↗
NASA NTRS1977

Observations of large transient magnetospheric electric fields

Transient electric field events were studied by means of the long double-probe instrumentation carried by the Imp 6 satellite, and nine clearly defined exceptionally large amplitude events are described. The events were observed in the midnight sector at geocentric distances of 3.5 to 5.5 earth radii at middle latitudes within a magnetic L shell range of 4.8 to 7.5; the duration is from one to several minutes with peak power spectra amplitudes occurring at a frequency of about 0.3 Hz. The events occur under magnetically disturbed conditions and are often associated with negative dH/dt excursions. The magnetospheric motions calculated for these electric fields indicate a quasi-stochastical diffusive process rather than the general inward magnetospheric collapsing motion expected during the expansive phases of auroral substorm activity. It is likely that the transient electric fields are responsible for the impulsive acceleration and injection of plasma to populate the outer radiation belt.

Aggson, T. L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aging phenomena in the two-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equation

The complex Ginzburg-Landau equation with additive noise is a stochastic partial differential equation that describes a remarkably wide range of physical systems which include coupled non-linear oscillators subject to external noise near a Hopf bifurcation instability and spontaneous structure formation in non-equilibrium systems, e.g., in cyclically competing populations or oscillatory chemical reactions. Here, we employ a finite-difference method to numerically solve the noisy complex Ginzburg-Landau equation on a two-dimensional domain with the goal to investigate its non-equilibrium dynamics when the system is quenched into the “defocusing spiral quadrant”. We observe slow coarsening dynamics as oppositely charged topological defects annihilate each other, and characterize the ensuing aging scaling behavior. We conclude that the physical aging features in this system are governed by non-universal aging scaling exponents. We also investigate systems with control parameters residing in the “focusing quadrant”, and identify slow aging kinetics in that regime as well. Finally, we provide heuristic criteria for the existence of slow coarsening dynamics and physical aging behavior in the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Formulation and solution approach for calibrating activity-based travel demand model-system via microsimulation

This study addresses the problem of calibrating utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based travel demand model-systems. After estimation, it is common practice to use aggregate measurements to calibrate the estimated model-system’s parameters prior to their application in transportation planning, policy making, and operations. However, calibration of activity-based model-systems has received much less attention. Existing calibration approaches are myopic heuristics in the sense that they do not consider the fundamental inter-dependencies among choice-models and do not have a systematic way to adjust model parameters. Also, other purely simulation-based approaches do not perform well in large-scale applications. In this study, we focus on utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based model-systems and calibrating aggregate statistics such as activity shares, mode shares, time-dependent & mode-specific OD flows, and time-dependent & mode-specific sensor counts. We formulate the calibration problem as a simulation-based optimization problem and propose a stochastic gradient-based solution procedure to solve it. The solution procedure relies on microsimulation to calculate expectations of the aggregate statistics of interest to the calibration problem. Additionally, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the gradient of the objective function —that are evaluated through microsimulation on mini-batches of the population. The proposed solution procedure is sensitive to the fundamental structure of the activity-based model-system and is non-myopic in considering the dependencies across its model components. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex, highly nonlinear, and potentially has multiple-minima. Lastly, we show —through a real-world application— that the proposed solution procedure outperforms other state-of-the-art purely simulation-based optimization approaches in terms of computational efficiency, stability, and convergence. We also compare various gradient-based solution algorithms to determine the best algorithm to update the parameters. This work has the potential to facilitate wider and easier application of activity-based model-systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable and Memory-Efficient Algorithms for Controlling Networked Epidemic Processes Using Multiplicative Weights Update Method

We study the problem of designing scalable algorithms to find effective intervention strategies for controlling stochastic epidemic processes on networks. This is a common problem arising in agent based models for epidemic spread. Previous approaches to this problem focus on either heuristics with no guarantees or approximation algorithms that scale only to networks corresponding to county-sized populations, typically, with less than a million nodes. In particular, the mathematical-programming based approaches need to solve the Linear Program (LP) relaxation of the problem using an LP solver, which restricts the scalability of this approach. In this work, we overcome this restriction by designing an algorithm that adapts the multiplicative weights update (MWU) framework, along with the sample average approximation (SAA) technique, to approximately solve the linear program (LP) relaxation for the problem. To scale this approach further, we provide a memory-efficient algorithm that enables scaling to large networks, corresponding to country-size populations, with over 300 million nodes and 30 billion edges. Furthermore, we show that this approach provides near-optimal solutions to the LP in practice.

Sambaturu, Prathyush↗
DOE OSTI2020

Individual doses for super cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from the Mayak releases with an emphasis on prenatal doses

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for 45,837 members of the Southern Urals Population Exposed to Radiation Cohort (SUPER-C) living in the region around the Mayak Production Association facilities in Russia from 131I released to the atmosphere from all relevant exposure pathways. The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and stochastic realizations of dose time-histories. The mean thyroid dose from 131I for SUPER-C members was 195 mGy; the median was 65 mGy. Overall, 131I-thyroid doses for about 3.6% of SUPER-C members were larger than 1 Gy. For children born in 1940-1950, the dose was about 10% higher than in previous studies because doses during the prenatal period for 9,117 individuals are included in the current work. Half of the individuals born in the region in 1950–1960 who remained in the study domain through 1972 received 9.4% or more of their total dose during the prenatal period. SUPER-C members residing in areas contaminated by discharges of liquid radioactive releases into the Techa River and the Kyshtym Accident in 1957 received 80% of their thyroid dose from airborne 131I emissions. The uncertainty in the 131I dose estimates is low enough for this approach to be used in regional epidemiological studies.

Dose assessment, 131I, airborne radioactivity, thy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Saturn System as Observed by Cassini's Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph

The Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph (UVIS) has major new findings in all aspects of Saturn science: Saturn, its rings, Titan and the icy satellites, and the Saturn magnetosphere. Dynamic interactions between neutrals, ions, rings, moons and meteoroids produce a highly structured and time variable Saturn system. Highlights and outstanding new results will be reported, focusing on Saturn s moons and their interaction with their environment. The UVIS is one of Cassini s suite of remote sensing instruments. The UVIS instrument includes channels for extreme UV (55 to 110 nm) and far UV (110 to 190 nm) spectroscopic imaging, high speed photometry of stellar occultations, solar EUV occultation, and a hydrogen/deuterium absorption cell. UVIS has detected products of water dissociation, neutral oxygen and OH, which dominate the Saturn inner magnetosphere, in contrast to Jupiter, and H fills the entire magnetosphere apparently extending through the magnetopause at far greater density than the ion population. The O and OH and a fraction of the H are probably the products of water physical chemistry, and derived ultimately from water ice. Observed fluctuations indicate close interactions with plasma sources. Sputtering from the satellites water ice surfaces is insufficient to supply the observed mass. Stochastic events in the E ring may be the ultimate source.

Esposito, L. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing mechanisms for microbial taxa and community dynamics using process models

Disentangling the assembly mechanisms controlling community composition, structure, distribution, functions, and dynamics is a central issue in ecology. Although various approaches have been proposed to examine community assembly mechanisms, quantitative characterization is challenging, particularly in microbial ecology. Here, we present a novel approach for quantitatively delineating community assembly mechanisms by combining the consumer–resource model with a neutral model in stochastic differential equations. Using time-series data from anaerobic bioreactors that target microbial 16S rRNA genes, we tested the applicability of three ecological models: the consumer–resource model, the neutral model, and the combined model. Our results revealed that model performances varied substantially as a function of population abundance and/or process conditions. The combined model performed best for abundant taxa in the treatment bioreactors where process conditions were manipulated. In contrast, the neutral model showed the best performance for rare taxa. Our analysis further indicated that immigration rates decreased with taxa abundance and competitions between taxa were strongly correlated with phylogeny, but within a certain phylogenetic distance only. The determinism underlying taxa and community dynamics were quantitatively assessed, showing greater determinism in the treatment bioreactors that aligned with the subsequent abnormal system functioning. Given its mechanistic basis, the framework developed here is expected to be potentially applicable beyond microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Origins of the rings of Uranus and Neptune. I - Statistics of satellite disruptions

The origin of the rings of Uranus and Neptune is considered by performing two types of stochastic simulations of the collisional history of small moons: Monte Carlo simulations in which only the largest surviving fragments from each disruption is followed, and a Markov chain approach which makes it possible to follow the size distribution from each disruption to arbitrarily small sizes. Results indicate that the population of small satellites around Uranus and Neptune have evolved through catastrophic fragmentation since the end of planet and satellite formation 3 to 4 billion years ago.

Colwell, Joshua E.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Electron Energization and Thermal to Non-Thermal Energy Partition During Earth's Magnetotail Reconnection

Electrons in earth's magnetotail are energized significantly both in the form of heating and in the form of acceleration to non-thermal energies. While magnetic reconnection is considered to play an important role in this energization, it still remains unclear how electrons are energized and how energy is partitioned between thermal and non-thermal components. Here, we show, based on in situ observations by NASA's magnetospheric multiscale mission combined with multi-component spectral fitting methods, that the average electron energy ε¯(or equivalently temperature) is substantially higher when the locally averaged electric field magnitude |𝐸| is also higher. While this result is consistent with the classification of “plasma-sheet” and “tail-lobe” reconnection during which reconnection is considered to occur on closed and open magnetic field lines, respectively, it further suggests that a stochastic Fermi acceleration in 3D, reconnection-driven turbulence is essential for the production and confinement of energetic electrons in the reconnection region. The puzzle is that the non-thermal power-law component can be quite small even when the electric field is large and the bulk population is significantly heated. The fraction of non-thermal electron energies varies from sample to sample between ∼20% and ∼60%, regardless of the electric field magnitude. Interestingly, these values of non-thermal fractions are similar to those obtained for the above-the-looptop hard x-ray coronal sources for solar flares.

M Oka↗