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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Mesoscale Rainfall: Statistics of Spatial Averages

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. A previously developed spectral model of rain statistics that is designed to capture this property, predicts power law scaling behavior for the second moment statistics of area-averaged rain rate on the averaging length scale L as L right arrow 0. In the present work a more efficient method of estimating the model parameters is presented, and used to fit the model to the statistics of area-averaged rain rate derived from gridded radar precipitation data from TOGA COARE. Statistical properties of the data and the model predictions are compared over a wide range of averaging scales. An extension of the spectral model scaling relations to describe the dependence of the average fraction of grid boxes within an area containing nonzero rain (the "rainy area fraction") on the grid scale L is also explored.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Stochastic Models of Molecule Formation on Dust

We will present new theoretical models for the formation of molecules on dust. The growth of ice mantles and their layered structure is accounted for and compared directly to observations through simulation of the expected ice absorption spectra

Charnley, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2017

Stochastic Modelling of Wireless Energy Transfer

This study investigates the efficiency of a new method of powering remote sensors by the means of wireless energy transfer. The increased use of sensors for data collection comes with the inherent cost of supplying power from sources such as power cables or batteries. Wireless energy transfer technology eliminates the need for power cables or periodic battery replacement. The time and cost of setting up or expanding a sensor network will be reduced while allowing sensors to be placed in areas where running power cables or battery replacement is not feasible. This paper models wireless channels for power and data separately. Smart scheduling for the data channel is proposed to avoid transmitting data on a noisy channel where the probability of data loss is high to improve power efficiency. Analytical models have been developed and verified using simulations.

Veilleux, Shaun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Statistical Approach for Determination of Graphite Nitridation Using Bayesian Model Comparison

A better estimation of surface reaction efficiency of semiconductor-grade graphite with atomic nitrogen, as well as the calibration error are calculated using Bayesian updating based on experimental data. Compared with a conventional deterministic model, the stochastic model approach is a powerful tool in the sense that the model is capable of taking into account underlying error correlations among the data quantities. In this paper, we investigate four different stochastic models (called “stochastic system model classes” herein) corresponding to different descriptions of modeling and measurement error structures, given one deterministic physical model. These stochastic system model classes differ in the covariance matrix structure that is used in the uncertainty model to represent uncertainties associated with the physical model and experimental measurements. For each model class, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the posterior probabilities of the physical model parameters as well as of the stochastic model parameters. Model comparison and selection are then applied based on two measures including Bayesian evidence and Bayesian information criterion, as well as the deviance information criterion. Both measures suggest the stochastic model class, which considers that a correlation between errors in two data quantities among different data points is the most plausible. With the stochastic model class, the range of uncertainty in surface reaction efficiency is estimated to be about two orders of magnitude at [Formula: see text].

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian filtering for model predictive control of stochastic gene expression in single cells

This study describes a method for controlling the production of protein in individual cells using stochastic models of gene expression. By combining modern microscopy platforms with optogenetic gene expression, experimentalists are able to accurately apply light to individual cells, which can induce protein production. Here we use a finite state projection based stochastic model of gene expression, along with Bayesian state estimation to control protein copy numbers within individual cells. We compare this method to previous methods that use population based approaches. We also demonstrate the ability of this control strategy to ameliorate discrepancies between the predictions of a deterministic model and stochastic switching system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model correction and updating of a stochastic degradation model for failure prognostics of miter gates

Understanding the degradation of the quoin block is vital for failure prognostics in miter gates. Due to the complicated degradation mechanism, degradation models based on simplifications and assumptions cannot accurately describe the damage evolution. It is observed that small errors in a simplified degradation model can lead to a large discrepancy in the remaining useful life estimation attributed to error accumulation over time. Aiming to address this issue in failure prognostics, this paper presents a dynamic model correction framework for a simplified degradation model using strain measurements. In the proposed framework, a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) model is employed to compensate the missing physics in a simplified stochastic degradation model. Here, a maximum likelihood estimation method is developed to estimate the uncertain parameters of the simplified physics-based degradation model along with the unknown PCE model parameters using strain measurements as the observables. The updated damage degradation model is then applied to failure prognostics of a miter gate. Results of a case study show that the proposed approach can effectively improve the accuracy of failure prognostics in miter gates.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1994

A dynamic localization model with stochastic backscatter

The modeling of subgrid scales in large-eddy simulation (LES) has been rationalized by the introduction of the dynamic localization procedure. This method allows one to compute rather than prescribe the unknown coefficients in the subgrid-scale model. Formally, the LES equations are supposed to be obtained by applying to the Navier-Stokes equations a 'grid filter' operation. Though the subgrid stress itself is unknown, an identity between subgrid stresses generated by different filters has been derived. Although preliminary tests of the Dynamic Localization Model (DLM) with k-equation have been satisfactory, the use of a negative eddy viscosity to describe backscatter is probably a crude representation of the physics of reverse transfer of energy. Indeed, the model is fully deterministic. Knowing the filtered velocity field and the subgrid-scale energy, the subgrid stress is automatically determined. We know that the LES equations cannot be fully deterministic since the small scales are not resolved. This stems from an important distinction between equilibrium hydrodynamics and turbulence. In equilibrium hydrodynamics, the molecular motions are also not resolved. However, there is a clear separation of scale between these unresolved motions and the relevant hydrodynamic scales. The result of molecular motions can then be separated into an average effect (the molecular viscosity) and some fluctuations. Due to the large number of molecules present in a box with size of the order of the hydrodynamic scale, the ratio between fluctuations and the average effect should be very small (as a result of the 'law of large numbers'). For that reason, the hydrodynamic balance equations are usually purely deterministic. In turbulence, however, there is no clear separation of scale between small and large eddies. In that case, the fluctuations around a deterministic eddy viscosity term could be significant. An eddy noise would then appear through a stochastic term in the subgrid-scale model and could be the source of backscatter.

Carati, Daniele↗
NASA NTRS1972

A stochastic bioburden model for spacecraft sterilization.

Development of a stochastic model of the probability distribution for the random variable representing the number of microorganisms on a surface as a function of time. The first basic principle associated with bioburden estimation is that viable particles are removed from surfaces. The second notion important to the analysis is that microorganisms in environments and on surfaces occur in clumps. The last basic principle relating to bioburden modeling is that viable particles are deposited on a surface. The bioburden on a spacecraft is determined by the amount and kind of control exercised on the spacecraft assembly location, the shedding characteristics of the individuals in the vicinity of the spacecraft, its orientation, the geographical location in which the assembly takes place, and the steps in the assembly procedure. The model presented has many of the features which are desirable for its use in the spacecraft sterilization programs currently being planned by NASA.

Roark, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A stochastic-dynamic model for the spatial structure of forecast error statistics

The present investigation is concerned with the presentation of a simplified model of the spatial structure of forecast error statistics, a comparison of the model with actual numerical weather prediction results, and the extent to which simplifying assumptions made in the model are justified. A stochastic-dynamic model is derived for the spatial structure of the global atmospheric mass-field forecast error. The model states that the relative potential vorticity of the forecast error is random. The covariance function of the model's solutions is found to be governed by a simple deterministic equation. The agreement between the stochastic model and actual mass-field forecast errors fields for 12-36 h periods validates the assumptions on which the model is derived. Within this period, the difference between the potential voriticity fields of the atmosphere and of the numerical forecasts used in the comparison is well represented by white noise.

Balgovind, R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Stochastic Intracellular Model of Anthrax Infection With Spore Germination Heterogeneity

We present a stochastic mathematical model of the intracellular infection dynamics of Bacillus anthracis in macrophages. Following inhalation of B. anthracis spores, these are ingested by alveolar phagocytes. Ingested spores then begin to germinate and divide intracellularly. This can lead to the eventual death of the host cell and the extracellular release of bacterial progeny. Some macrophages successfully eliminate the intracellular bacteria and will recover. Here, a stochastic birth-and-death process with catastrophe is proposed, which includes the mechanism of spore germination and maturation of B. anthracis . The resulting model is used to explore the potential for heterogeneity in the spore germination rate, with the consideration of two extreme cases for the rate distribution: continuous Gaussian and discrete Bernoulli. We make use of approximate Bayesian computation to calibrate our model using experimental measurements from in vitro infection of murine peritoneal macrophages with spores of the Sterne 34F2 strain of B. anthracis . The calibrated stochastic model allows us to compute the probability of rupture, mean time to rupture, and rupture size distribution, of a macrophage that has been infected with one spore. We also obtain the mean spore and bacterial loads over time for a population of cells, each assumed to be initially infected with a single spore. Our results support the existence of significant heterogeneity in the germination rate, with a subset of spores expected to germinate much later than the majority. Furthermore, in agreement with experimental evidence, our results suggest that most of the spores taken up by macrophages are likely to be eliminated by the host cell, but a few germinated spores may survive phagocytosis and lead to the death of the infected cell. Finally, we discuss how this stochastic modelling approach, together with dose-response data, allows us to quantify and predict individual infection risk following exposure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Techno Economic Model

The Stochastic Techno-Economic Model or STEM is an analytical tool that estimates the logistics cost of different biomass feedstocks by incorporating uncertainty into the modeling framework. The scope of the model covers multiple stages of the biomass life cycle spanning feedstock harvest, collection, transportation and handling, preprocessing, and storage. The model determines the total logistics cost per dry metric ton ($/DM ton) for biomass and breaks down the costs for important cost categories including ownership related costs such as interest and depreciation, insurance, housing, and taxes as well as operating costs like repairs and maintenance, labor costs, and fuel and lube costs.

Burli, PralhadH↗
NASA NTRS1995

Image Discrimination Models With Stochastic Channel Selection

Many models of human image processing feature a large fixed number of channels representing cortical units varying in spatial position (visual field direction and eccentricity) and spatial frequency (radial frequency and orientation). The values of these parameters are usually sampled at fixed values selected to ensure adequate overlap considering the bandwidth and/or spread parameters, which are usually fixed. Even high levels of overlap does not always ensure that the performance of the model will vary smoothly with image translation or scale changes. Physiological measurements of bandwidth and/or spread parameters result in a broad distribution of estimated parameter values and the prediction of some psychophysical results are facilitated by the assumption that these parameters also take on a range of values. Selecting a sample of channels from a continuum of channels rather than using a fixed set can make model performance vary smoothly with changes in image position, scale, and orientation. It also facilitates the addition of spatial inhomogeneity, nonlinear feature channels, and focus of attention to channel models.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗