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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Time-resolved turbulent dynamo in a laser plasma

Understanding magnetic-field generation and amplification in turbulent plasma is essential to account for observations of magnetic fields in the universe. A theoretical framework attributing the origin and sustainment of these fields to the so-called fluctuation dynamo was recently validated by experiments on laser facilities in low-magnetic-Prandtl-number plasmas (Pm<1). However, the same framework proposes that the fluctuation dynamo should operate differently when Pm≳1, the regime relevant to many astrophysical environments such as the intracluster medium of galaxy clusters. This paper reports an experiment that creates a laboratory Pm≳1 plasma dynamo. We provide a time-resolved characterization of the plasma’s evolution, measuring temperatures, densities, flow velocities, and magnetic fields, which allows us to explore various stages of the fluctuation dynamo’s operation on seed magnetic fields generated by the action of the Biermann-battery mechanism during the initial drive-laser target interaction. The magnetic energy in structures with characteristic scales close to the driving scale of the stochastic motions is found to increase by almost three orders of magnitude and saturate dynamically. It is shown that the initial growth of these fields occurs at a much greater rate than the turnover rate of the driving-scale stochastic motions. Our results point to the possibility that plasma turbulence produced by strong shear can generate fields more efficiently at the driving scale than anticipated by idealized magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the nonhelical fluctuation dynamo; this finding could help explain the large-scale fields inferred from observations of astrophysical systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Stochastic Variability in Multiband Time-series Data

In preparation for the era of time-domain astronomy with upcoming large-scale surveys, we propose a state-space representation of a multivariate damped random walk process as a tool to analyze irregularly-spaced multifilter light curves with heteroscedastic measurement errors. We adopt a computationally efficient and scalable Kalman filtering approach to evaluate the likelihood function, leading to maximum O(k 3 n) complexity, where k is the number of available bands and n is the number of unique observation times across the k bands. This is a significant computational advantage over a commonly used univariate Gaussian process that can stack up all multiband light curves in one vector with maximum O(k 3 n 3 ) complexity. Using such efficient likelihood computation, we provide both maximum likelihood estimates and Bayesian posterior samples of the model parameters. Three numerical illustrations are presented: (i) analyzing simulated five-band light curves for a comparison with independent single-band fits; (ii) analyzing five-band light curves of a quasar obtained from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 to estimate short-term variability and timescale; (iii) analyzing gravitationally lensed g- and r-band light curves of Q0957+561 to infer the time delay. Two R packages, Rdrw and timedelay, are publicly available to fit the proposed models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-resolved turbulent dynamo in a laser plasma

Understanding magnetic-field generation and amplification in turbulent plasma is essential to account for observations of magnetic fields in the universe. A theoretical framework attributing the origin and sustainment of these fields to the so-called fluctuation dynamo was recently validated by experiments on laser facilities in low-magnetic-Prandtl-number plasmas (Pm < 1). However, the same framework proposes that the fluctuation dynamo should operate differently when Pm ≳ 1, the regime relevant to many astrophysical environments such as the intracluster medium of galaxy clusters. This paper reports an experiment that creates a laboratory Pm ≳ 1 plasma dynamo. We provide a time-resolved characterization of the plasma’s evolution, measuring temperatures, densities, flow velocities, and magnetic fields, which allows us to explore various stages of the fluctuation dynamo’s operation on seed magnetic fields generated by the action of the Biermann-battery mechanism during the initial drive-laser target interaction. The magnetic energy in structures with characteristic scales close to the driving scale of the stochastic motions is found to increase by almost three orders of magnitude and saturate dynamically. It is shown that the initial growth of these fields occurs at a much greater rate than the turnover rate of the driving-scale stochastic motions. Here, our results point to the possibility that plasma turbulence produced by strong shear can generate fields more efficiently at the driving scale than anticipated by idealized magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the nonhelical fluctuation dynamo; this finding could help explain the large-scale fields inferred from observations of astrophysical systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1985

Study of non-thermal photon production under different scenarios in solar flares. 2: The Compton inverse and Bremsstrahlung models and fittings

Energy spectra of photons emitted from Bremsstrahlung (BR) of energetic electrons with matter, is obtained from the deconvolution of the electron energy spectra. It can be inferred that the scenario for the production of X-rays and gamma rays in solar flares may vary from event to event. However, it is possible in many cases to associated low energy events to impulsive acceleration, and the high energy phase of some events to stochastic acceleration. In both cases, flare particles seem to be strongly modulated by local energy losses. Electric field acceleration, associated to neutral current sheets is a suitable candidate for impulsive acceleration. Finally, that the predominant radiation process of this radiation is the inverse Compton effect due to the local flare photon field.

Perez-Peraza, J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Why is it still too warm or cold in my house? Examining the relationships between energy efficient capital and household energy insecurity

Here, this paper examines the relationships between energy efficient (EE) capital technology and household energy insecurity in the United States. The theoretical model of these relationships employs household production theory to capture the demand for and production of household energy services, and a stochastic production frontier approach to describe how having access to and the usage intensity of EE capital technology could help alleviate inefficiency in the production of household energy services. A working hypothesis formulated from the theoretical model posits that having EE capital technology in the home will reduce the level of household energy insecurity experienced. The extent of energy insecurity experienced is inferred from an energy insecurity index value assigned to each household, generated via the application of a dichotomous Rasch model to questions contained in the 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey. Noting the potential simultaneous relationship that exists between a household having access to and the usage intensity of EE capital technology and the experience of being energy insecure, an instrumental variables approach was employed to estimate a series of ordered logit models. Results suggest access to EE capital technology in the form of Energy Star® appliances, Energy Star® windows, or a SMART thermostat does not reduce the probability of experiencing a greater level of energy insecurity. Nor does the usage intensity of EE capital. Thus, policy instruments designed to alleviate household energy insecurity may need to go beyond simply helping households obtain EE capital technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1992

Flare gamma ray continuum emission from neutral pion decay

We investigate, in detail, the production of solar flare gamma ray emission above 100 MeV via the interaction of high energy protons with the ambient solar atmosphere. We restrict our considerations to the broadband gamma ray spectrum resulting from the decay of neutral pions produced in p-H reactions. Thick-target calculations are performed to determine the photon fluences. However, proton transport is not considered. Inferences about the form of the proton spectrum at 10-100 MeV have already been drawn from de-excitation gamma ray lines. Our aim is to constrain the proton spectrum at higher energies. Thus, the injected proton spectrum is assumed to have the form of a Bessel Function, characteristics of stochastic energy at higher energies. The detailed shape of the gamma ray spectra around 100 MeV is found to have a strong dependence on the spectral index of the power law and on the turnover energy (from Bessel function to power law). As would be expected, the harder the photon spectrum the wider the 100 MeV feature. The photon spectra are to be compared with observations and used to place limits upon the number of particles accelerated and to constrain acceleration models.

Alexander, David↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental inference of flux tunneling between magnetic island chains in tokamaks

We report confinement bifurcations due to flux tunneling in magnetic islands in toroidal plasmas. This occurs in 2/1 islands, triggered by decoupling of non-overlapping adjacent 5/2 islands. While subject to electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD), the temperature at the 2/1 O-point is flat before but peaks after decoupling. Here, this is shown to be due to a bifurcation from stochastic to nested magnetic structure, caused by the removal of flux tunneling through intersecting manifolds of overlapping heteroclinic tangles. 2/1 island stability correlates with coupling events in an ITER baseline scenario plasma where ECCD can not stabilize the coupled islands, showing the critical impact of flux tunneling on disruption avoidance in tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1978

The augmentation algorithm and molecular phylogenetic trees

Moore's (1977) augmentation procedure is discussed, and it is concluded that the procedure is valid for obtaining estimates of the total number of fixed nucleotide substitutions both theoretically and in practice, for both simulated and real data, and in agreement, for experimentally dense data sets, with stochastic estimates of the divergence, provided the restrictions on codon mutability resulting from natural selection are explicitly allowed for. Tateno and Nei's (1978) critique that the augmentation procedure has a systematic bias toward overestimation of the total number of nucleotide replacements is disputed, and a data analysis suggests that ancestral sequences inferred by the method of parsimony contain a large number of incorrectly assigned nucleotides.

Holmquist, R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Bayesian framework to investigate radiation reaction in strong fields

Recent experiments aiming to measure phenomena predicted by strong-field quantum electrodynamics (SFQED) have done so by colliding relativistic electron beams and high-power lasers. In such experiments, measurements of collision parameters are not always feasible. However, precise knowledge of these parameters is required to accurately test SFQED. Here, we present a novel Bayesian inference procedure that infers collision parameters that could not be measured on-shot. This procedure is applicable to all-optical non-linear Compton scattering experiments investigating radiation reaction. The framework allows multiple diagnostics to be combined self-consistently and facilitates the inclusion of known information pertaining to the collision parameters. Using this Bayesian analysis, the relative validity of the classical, quantum-continuous and quantum-stochastic models of radiation reaction was compared for several test cases, which demonstrates the accuracy and model selection capability of the framework and highlight its robustness if the experimental values of fixed parameters differ from their values in the models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2012

On the Ice Nucleation Spectrum

This work presents a novel formulation of the ice nucleation spectrum, i.e. the function relating the ice crystal concentration to cloud formation conditions and aerosol properties. The new formulation is physically-based and explicitly accounts for the dependency of the ice crystal concentration on temperature, supersaturation, cooling rate, and particle size, surface area and composition. This is achieved by introducing the concepts of ice nucleation coefficient (the number of ice germs present in a particle) and nucleation probability dispersion function (the distribution of ice nucleation coefficients within the aerosol population). The new formulation is used to generate ice nucleation parameterizations for the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets and the heterogeneous deposition ice nucleation on dust and soot ice nuclei. For homogeneous freezing, it was found that by increasing the dispersion in the droplet volume distribution the fraction of supercooled droplets in the population increases. For heterogeneous ice nucleation the new formulation consistently describes singular and stochastic behavior within a single framework. Using a fundamentally stochastic approach, both cooling rate independence and constancy of the ice nucleation fraction over time, features typically associated with singular behavior, were reproduced. Analysis of the temporal dependency of the ice nucleation spectrum suggested that experimental methods that measure the ice nucleation fraction over few seconds would tend to underestimate the ice nuclei concentration. It is shown that inferring the aerosol heterogeneous ice nucleation properties from measurements of the onset supersaturation and temperature may carry significant error as the variability in ice nucleation properties within the aerosol population is not accounted for. This work provides a simple and rigorous ice nucleation framework where theoretical predictions, laboratory measurements and field campaign data can be reconciled, and that is suitable for application in atmospheric modeling studies.

Barahona, D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Predicting Cell Death and Mutation Frequency for a Wide Spectrum of LET by Assuming DNA Break Clustering Inside Repair Domains

The high relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of high charged and energy (HZE) particles for cell death, DNA mutations and cancer remain based on experimental data. In this work, we propose that the existence of DNA repair domains is sufficient to predict both cell death and mutation frequencies for any LET by only taking into account experimental data from low-LET, offering one mechanism for RBE across LET. We hypothesize that whenever multiple DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) are generated within the same DNA repair domain, DSBs are actively regrouped for more efficient repair [1]. This hypothesis has been supported by the low-LET sublinear dose response observed at doses greater than ~1Gy for 53BP1 radiation-induced foci (RIF) reflecting increasing DSB/RIF with dose [2]. Previously, we modeled radiation-induced cell death of human breast cells by first inferring the size of these domains from the dose dependence of low-LET RIF, and by associating a lethality factor to the number of pairs of DSBs in each RIF [1]. In this work, we first integrate the new NASA computer models RITCARD (Relativistic Ion Tracks, Chromosome Aberrations, Repair, and Damage) [3] and BDSTracks (Biological Damage by Stochastic Tracks) for a more accurate microdosimetry and a better model of the nuclear organization to predict the location of DSBs. A large array of particles and energy are simulated, covering more than three orders of magnitude for LET (~1-1000 keV/µm). Next, we extend our previous model to predict mutation frequencies by assuming that clustered DSBs increase mutation probability, which is formalized by the mutation frequency being linearly dependent on both the number of DSBs and the number of pairs of DSBs inside individual RIF. Linear coefficients are estimated so that simulations predict accurately mutation frequencies observed in Chinese hamster cells exposed to low-LET. Keeping these coefficients unchanged, we then predict mutation frequencies induced by HZE by simulating DSBs and obtain RBEs for mutations and cell death following the expected experimental bell shape for LET dependence. We also observe an orientation effect that needs to be confirmed, showing different RBE depending on the angle of the HZE beam hitting the main axis of the cell.

Plante, Ianik↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamics of order and randomness in dopant distributions inferred from atomically resolved imaging

Abstract Exploration of structure-property relationships as a function of dopant concentration is commonly based on mean field theories for solid solutions. However, such theories that work well for semiconductors tend to fail in materials with strong correlations, either in electronic behavior or chemical segregation. In these cases, the details of atomic arrangements are generally not explored and analyzed. The knowledge of the generative physics and chemistry of the material can obviate this problem, since defect configuration libraries as stochastic representation of atomic level structures can be generated, or parameters of mesoscopic thermodynamic models can be derived. To obtain such information for improved predictions, we use data from atomically resolved microscopic images that visualize complex structural correlations within the system and translate them into statistical mechanical models of structure formation. Given the significant uncertainties about the microscopic aspects of the material’s processing history along with the limited number of available images, we combine model optimization techniques with the principles of statistical hypothesis testing. We demonstrate the approach on data from a series of atomically-resolved scanning transmission electron microscopy images of Mo x Re 1- x S 2 at varying ratios of Mo/Re stoichiometries, for which we propose an effective interaction model that is then used to generate atomic configurations and make testable predictions at a range of concentrations and formation temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Nanomagnetic Memories for Uncertain and Robust Machine Learning

This project evaluated the use of emerging spintronic memory devices for robust and efficient variational inference schemes. Variational inference (VI) schemes, which constrain the distribution for each weight to be a Gaussian distribution with a mean and standard deviation, are a tractable method for calculating posterior distributions of weights in a Bayesian neural network such that this neural network can also be trained using the powerful backpropagation algorithm. Our project focuses on domain-wall magnetic tunnel junctions (DW-MTJs), a powerful multi-functional spintronic synapse design that can achieve low power switching while also opening the pathway towards repeatable, analog operation using fabricated notches. Our initial efforts to employ DW-MTJs as an all-in-one stochastic synapse with both a mean and standard deviation didn’t end up meeting the quality metrics for hardware-friendly VI. In the future, new device stacks and methods for expressive anisotropy modification may make this idea still possible. However, as a fall back that immediately satisfies our requirements, we invented and detailed how the combination of a DW-MTJ synapse encoding the mean and a probabilistic Bayes-MTJ device, programmed via a ferroelectric or ionically modifiable layer, can robustly and expressively implement VI. This design includes a physics-informed small circuit model, that was scaled up to perform and demonstrate rigorous uncertainty quantification applications, up to and including small convolutional networks on a grayscale image classification task, and larger (Residual) networks implementing multi-channel image classification. Lastly, as these results and ideas all depend upon the idea of an inference application where weights (spintronic memory states) remain non-volatile, the retention of these synapses for the notched case was further interrogated. These investigations revealed and emphasized the importance of both notch geometry and anisotropy modification in order to further enhance the endurance of written spintronic states. In the near future, these results will be mapped to effective predictions for room temperature and elevated operation DW-MTJ memory retention, and experimentally verified when devices become available.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Projective Integral Updates for High-Dimensional Variational Inference

Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, the feasible distributions are Gaussian mean-fields and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. Since these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work begins by proposing an efficient quasirandom sequence of quadratures for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratic functions and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate polynomials of quadratic total degree. The corresponding variational updates require four loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. Furthermore, this integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.

Gaussian mean-field↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neutrino-driven Winds in Three-dimensional Core-collapse Supernova Simulations

Abstract In this paper, we analyze the neutrino-driven winds that emerge in 12 unprecedentedly long-duration 3D core-collapse supernova simulations done using the code F ornax . The 12 models cover progenitors with zero-age main-sequence mass between 9 and 60 solar masses. In all our models, we see transonic outflows that are at least 2 times as fast as the surrounding ejecta and that originate generically from a proto−neutron star surface atmosphere that is turbulent and rotating. We find that winds are common features of 3D simulations, even if there is anisotropic early infall. We find that the basic dynamical properties of 3D winds behave qualitatively similarly to those inferred in the past using simpler 1D models, but that the shape of the emergent wind can be deformed, very aspherical, and channeled by its environment. The thermal properties of winds for less massive progenitors very approximately recapitulate the 1D stationary solutions, while for more massive progenitors they deviate significantly owing to aspherical accretion. The Y e temporal evolution in winds is stochastic, and there can be some neutron-rich phases. Though no strong r -process is seen in any model, a weak r -process can be produced, and isotopes up to 90 Zr are synthesized in some models. Finally, we find that there is at most a few percent of a solar mass in the integrated wind component, while the energy carried by the wind itself can be as much as 10%–20% of the total explosion energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Embedding Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) Modules in SERPENT for Higher Fidelity Advanced Reactor Analysis

When a neutron born in fission thermalizes to the order of $k$ $B$ $T$, it’s de-Broglie wavelength and energy approach the order of inter-atomic spacing and elementary lattice oscillations, respectively. $S$($a,β,t$) or the scattering law, uuantify these temperature-dependent crystallographic contributions to total cross section (or reaction rate). In a Monte Carlo analysis, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of $S$($a,β,t$) are loaded to memory from “A Compact ENDF” (ACE) files for stochastically selecting thermal scattered neutron trajectories. In this work, novel neural thermal scattering (NeTS) modules for $S$($a,β,t$) CDFs are designed, trained, serialized and embedded within SERPENT using Python’s limited C-API for on-the-fly deployment of crystalline graphite $S$($a,β,t$) sampling. Torchscript tracing and Numba just-in-time (JIT) compilation streamline neural inference on NVIDIA GPUs with CUDA libraries. Demonstrations of bare sphere thermalization of fast and thermal sources show excellent agreement between embedded NeTS in SERPENT and MCNP. With an explicit model of the reactor, NeTS can predict on-the-fly changes in TREAT neutron spectra as a function of local temperature, which can serve to improve transient and accident predictions in a multiphysics analysis framework. This framework can be further extended to account on-the-fly for changes in local graphitic microstructure to scattering cross sections, and outlines a novel coupling of modern machine learning with state-of-the-art reactor physics methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗