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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

An Unusual Transmission Spectrum for the Sub-Saturn KELT-11b Suggestive of a Subsolar Water Abundance

We present an optical-to-infrared transmission spectrum of the inflated sub-Saturn KELT-11b measured with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 G141 spectroscopic grism, and the Spitzer Space Telescope (Spitzer) at 3.6 μm, in addition to a Spitzer 4.5 μm secondary eclipse. The precise HST transmission spectrum notably reveals a low-amplitude water feature with an unusual shape. Based on free-retrieval analyses with varying molecular abundances, we find strong evidence for water absorption. Depending on model assumptions, we also find tentative evidence for other absorbers (HCN, TiO, and AlO). The retrieved water abundance is generally ≲0.1× solar (0.001–0.7× solar over a range of model assumptions), several orders of magnitude lower than expected from planet formation models based on the solar system metallicity trend. We also consider chemical-equilibrium and self-consistent 1D radiative-convective equilibrium model fits and find that they, too, prefer low metallicities ([M/H] ≲ -2, consistent with the free-retrieval results). However, all of the retrievals should be interpreted with some caution because they either require additional absorbers that are far out of chemical equilibrium to explain the shape of the spectrum or are simply poor fits to the data. Finally, we find that the Spitzer secondary eclipse is indicative of full heat redistribution from KELT-11b’s dayside to nightside, assuming a clear dayside. These potentially unusual results for KELT-11b’s composition are suggestive of new challenges on the horizon for atmosphere and formation models in the face of increasingly precise measurements of exoplanet spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

XMM-Newton and SRG/eROSITA observations of the isolated neutron star candidate 4XMM J 022141.5-735632

We report the results of follow-up investigations of a possible new thermally emitting isolated neutron star (INS), 4XMM J022141.5-735632, using observations from XMM-Newton and Spectrum Roentgen Gamma (SRG) eROSITA. The analysis is complemented by Legacy Survey imaging in the optical and near-infrared wavelengths. The X-ray source, the first to be targeted by XMM-Newton in an effort to identify new INS candidates from the fourth generation of the XMM-Newton serendipitous source catalogue Data Release 9 (4XMM-DR9), shows a remarkably soft energy distribution and a lack of catalogued counterparts; the very high X-ray-to-optical flux ratio virtually excludes any other identification than an INS. Within current observational limits, no significant flux variation or change of spectral state is registered over nearly ten years. Future dedicated observations, particularly to search for pulsations, are crucial to shed further light on the nature of the X-ray source and relations to other Galactic neutron stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The evolution of the heaviest supermassive black holes in jetted AGNs

ABSTRACT We present the space density evolution, from z = 1.5 up to z = 5.5, of the most massive ($M \ge 10^9\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$) black holes hosted in jetted active galactic nuclei (AGNs). The analysis is based on a sample of 380 luminosity-selected (λL1350 ≥ 1046 erg s−1 and $P_{5\, \text{GHz}}\ge 10^{27}$ W Hz−1) flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) obtained from the Cosmic Lens All Sky Survey (CLASS). These sources are known to be face-on jetted AGNs (i.e. blazars) and can be exploited to infer the abundance of all the (misaligned) jetted AGNs, using a geometrical argument. We then compare the space density of the most massive supermassive black holes hosted in jetted AGNs with those present in the total population (mostly composed by non-jetted AGNs). We find that the space density has a peak at z ∼ 3, which is significantly larger than the value observed in the total AGN population with similar optical/UV luminosities (z ∼ 2.2), but not as extreme as the value previously inferred from X-ray-selected blazars (z ≳ 4). The jetted fraction (jetted AGNs/total AGNs) is overall consistent with the estimates in the local Universe (10–20 per cent) and at high redshift, assuming Lorentz bulk factors Γ ≈ 5. Finally, we find a marginal decrease in the jetted fraction at high redshifts (by a factor of ∼2). All these evidences point towards a different evolutionary path in the jetted AGNs compared to the total AGN population.

(galaxies:) quasars: supermassive black holes↗
DOE OSTI2026

The 3D clustering of Lyman Alpha Emitters measured with DESI

We present a clustering analysis of Lyman-$α$ emitters (LAEs) using spectroscopic observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) of candidates selected from the Blanco/DECam Intermediate-Band Imaging Survey (IBIS). We measure the two-point correlation function and the power spectrum, including cross-correlations with DESI quasars. Using both analytical and halo occupation distribution (HOD) simulation-based modeling, we find a linear bias of $b \sim 2.31$--$2.62$ for LAEs over the redshift range $2.26 < z < 3.41$. The analytical modeling also provides constraints on the strength of radiative transfer effects, while the HOD analysis characterizes the LAE-halo connection across multiple models. Finally, we quantify the magnitude of non-perturbative clustering effects such as Fingers of God in the LAE population, providing essential input for the accurate modeling of LAE-based cosmological analyses in forthcoming high-redshift surveys such as DESI-II.

Ebina, H. [UC, Berkeley; LBL, Berkeley] (ORCID:000↗
DOE OSTI2023

Precision redshift-space galaxy power spectra using Zel'dovich control variates

Numerical simulations in cosmology require trade-offs between volume, resolution and run-time that limit the volume of the Universe that can be simulated, leading to sample variance in predictions of ensemble-average quantities such as the power spectrum or correlation function(s). Sample variance is particularly acute at large scales, which is also where analytic techniques can be highly reliable. This provides an opportunity to combine analytic and numerical techniques in a principled way to improve the dynamic range and reliability of predictions for clustering statistics. In this paper we extend the technique of Zel'dovich control variates, previously demonstrated for 2-point functions in real space, to reduce the sample variance in measurements of 2-point statistics of biased tracers in redshift space. We demonstrate that with this technique, we can reduce the sample variance of these statistics down to their shot-noise limit out to k ~ 0.2 h Mpc -1 . This allows a better matching with perturbative models and improved predictions for the clustering of e.g. quasars, galaxies and neutral Hydrogen measured in spectroscopic redshift surveys at very modest computational expense. We discuss the implementation of ZCV, give some examples and provide forecasts for the efficacy of the method under various conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Radon Survey of Los Alamos National Laboratory Buildings and Los Alamos County Residential Buildings

A radon survey of office spaces was of interest to LANL for several reasons. First, exposure to natural radon in LANL office spaces has been considered to be outside the regulatory reach of the federal regulations and the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) orders, and thus has not been studied as extensively as occupational exposure to other radionuclides and is not subject to the same rigorous radiological controls. Second, a general survey of radon concentrations in LANL workspaces was of interest to management to ensure safe environments for workers and is in keeping with the intent of OSHA requirements. Though radon in LANL offices would not be derived from enhanced radioactive sources, radon exposure in general office spaces has the potential to significantly impact worker risk. The purpose of the 2009 radon survey was to measure and document indoor radon levels across a broad spectrum of office-type workspaces and neighboring homes. The measured concentrations were compared against those measured across the United States and across the world. The results were also compared against a wide variety of radiation protection thresholds such as (1) the action levels of 148 Bq m -3 (the U.S. EPA action level for public housing), (2) ≈1,200 Bq m -3 OSHA threshold for office spaces, (3) effective dose threshold of 1 mSv threshold for defining a radiological worker, (4) 50 mSv occupational effective dose limit, and (5) 0.1 mSv and 1 mSv limits for public exposures from the air pathway and all pathways, respectively.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Light fields during inflation from BOSS and future galaxy surveys

Abstract Primordial non-Gaussianity generated by additional fields present during inflation offers a compelling observational target for galaxy surveys. These fields are of significant theoretical interest since they offer a window into particle physics in the inflaton sector. They also violate the single-field consistency conditions and induce a scale-dependent bias in the galaxy power spectrum. In this paper, we explore this particular signal for light scalar fields and study the prospects for measuring it with galaxy surveys. We find that the sensitivities of current and future surveys are remarkably stable for different configurations, including between spectroscopic and photometric redshift measurements. This is even the case at non-zero masses where the signal is not obviously localized on large scales. For realistic galaxy number densities, we demonstrate that the redshift range and galaxy bias of the sample have the largest impact on the sensitivity in the power spectrum. These results additionally motivated us to explore the potentially enhanced sensitivity of Vera Rubin Observatory's LSST through multi-tracer analyses. Finally, we apply this understanding to current data from the last data release of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS DR12) and place new constraints on light fields coupled to the inflaton.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

The 3D Lyman- α forest power spectrum from eBOSS DR16

We measure the three-dimensional power spectrum (P3D) of the transmitted flux in the Lyman-α (Ly α) forest using the complete extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey data release 16 (eBOSS DR16). This sample consists of ~205 000 quasar spectra in the redshift range 2 ≤ z ≤ 4 at an effective redshift z = 2.334. We propose a pair-count spectral estimator in configuration space, weighting each pair by exp( i k ∙ r), for wave vector k and pixel pair separation r, effectively measuring the anisotropic power spectrum without the need for fast Fourier transforms. This accounts for the window matrix in a tractable way, avoiding artefacts found in Fourier-transform based power spectrum estimators due to the sparse sampling transverse to the line of sight of Ly α skewers. We extensively test our pipeline on two sets of mocks: (i) idealized Gaussian random fields with a sparse sampling of Ly α skewers, and (ii) log-normal LyaCoLoRe mocks including realistic noise levels, the eBOSS survey geometry and contaminants. On eBOSS DR16 data, the Kaiser formula with a non-linear correction term obtained from hydrodynamic simulations yields a good fit to the power spectrum data in the range $(0.02 ≤ k ≤ 0.35)$ h Mpc -1 at the 1–2σ level with a covariance matrix derived from LyaCoLoRe mocks. We demonstrate a promising new approach for full-shape cosmological analyses of Ly α forest data from cosmological surveys such as eBOSS, the currently observing Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and future surveys such as the Prime Focus Spectrograph, WEAVE-QSO, and 4MOST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology from combined galaxy clustering and lensing validation on cosmological simulations

In this work, we present a validation of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) 3×2-point analysis choices by testing them on Buzzard2.0, a new suite of cosmological simulations that is tailored for the testing and validation of combined galaxy clustering and weak-lensing analyses. We show that the buzzard2.0 simulations accurately reproduce many important aspects of the DES Y3 data, including photometric redshift and magnitude distributions, and the relevant set of two-point clustering and weak-lensing statistics. We then show that our model for the 3×2-point data vector is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys assuming the true redshift distributions for our source and lens samples, demonstrating robustness to uncertainties in the modeling of the nonlinear matter power spectrum, nonlinear galaxy bias, and higher-order lensing corrections. Additionally, we demonstrate for the first time that our photometric redshift calibration methodology, including information from photometry, spectroscopy, clustering cross-correlations, and galaxy–galaxy lensing ratios, is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys in the presence of realistic photometric redshift uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geometry versus growth: Internal consistency of the flat ΛCDM model with KiDS-1000

Here, we carry out a multi-probe self-consistency test of the flat Lambda Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) model with the aim of exploring potential causes of the reported tensions between high- and low-redshift cosmological observations. We divide the model into two theory regimes determined by the smooth background (geometry) and the evolution of matter density fluctuations (growth), each governed by an independent set of ΛCDM cosmological parameters. This extended model is constrained by a combination of weak gravitational lensing measurements from the Kilo-Degree Survey, galaxy clustering signatures extracted from Sloan Digital Sky Survey campaigns and the Six-Degree Field Galaxy Survey, and the angular baryon acoustic scale and the primordial scalar fluctuation power spectrum measured in Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. For both the weak lensing data set individually and the combined probes, we find strong consistency between the geometry and growth parameters, as well as with the posterior of standard ΛCDM analysis. In the non-split analysis, for which one single set of parameters was used, tension in the amplitude of matter density fluctuations as measured by the parameter S 8 persists at around 3σ, with a 1.5% constraint of S 8 = 0.776$_{–0.008}^{+0.016}$ for the combined probes. We also observe a less significant preference (at least 2σ) for higher values of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 70.5$_{–1.5}^{+0.7}$ km s –1 Mpc –1 , as well as for lower values of the total matter density parameter Ω m = 0.289$_{–0.005}^{+0.007}$ compared to the full Planck analysis. Including the subset of the CMB information in the probe combination enhances these differences rather than alleviate them, which we link to the discrepancy between low and high multipoles in Planck data. Our geometry versus growth analysis does not yet yield clear signs regarding whether the origin of the discrepancies lies in ΛCDM structure growth or expansion history but holds promise as an insightful test for forthcoming, more powerful data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beware of fake ν ’s: The effect of massive neutrinos on the nonlinear evolution of cosmic structure

Massive neutrinos suppress the growth of cosmic structure on small, nonlinear scales. It is thus often proposed that using statistics beyond the power spectrum can tighten constraints on the neutrino mass by extracting additional information from these nonlinear scales. We study the information content regarding neutrino mass at the field level, quantifying how much of this information arises from the difference in nonlinear evolution between a cosmology with one fluid [cold dark matter (CDM)] and two fluids ( CDM + neutrinos ). We do so by running two N -body simulations, one with and one without massive neutrinos, both with the same phases, and matching their linear power spectrum at a given low redshift. This effectively isolates the information encoded in the linear initial conditions from the nonlinear cosmic evolution. We demonstrate that, for k ≲ 1 h / Mpc , and for a single redshift, there is negligible difference in the real-space CDM field between the two simulations. This suggests that all the information regarding neutrino mass is in the linear power spectrum set by the initial conditions. Thus, any probe based on the CDM field alone will have negligible constraining power beyond that which exists at the linear level over the same range of scales. Consequently, any probe based on the halo field will contain little information beyond the linear power. We find similar results for the matter field responsible for weak lensing. We also demonstrate that there may be much information beyond the power spectrum in the 3D matter field; however, this is not observable in modern surveys via dark matter halos or weak lensing. Finally, we show that there is additional information to be found in redshift space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cosmological implications of the full shape of anisotropic clustering measurements in BOSS and eBOSS

We present the analysis of the full shape of anisotropic clustering measurement from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) quasar sample together with the combined galaxy sample from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), re-analysed using an updated recipe for the non-linear matter power spectrum and the non-local bias parameters. We obtain constraints for flat Lambda cold dark matter cosmologies, focusing on the cosmological parameters that are independent of the Hubble parameter h. Our recovered value for the Root Mean Square (RMS) linear perturbation theory variance as measured on the scale of 12 Mpc is σ 12 = 0.805 ± 0.049, while using the traditional reference scale of 8 h –1 Mpc gives σ 8 = 0.815 ± 0.044. We quantify the agreement between our measurements and the latest cosmic microwave background data from Planck using the suspiciousness metric, and find them to be consistent within 0.64 ± 0.03σ. Combining our clustering constraints with the 3 × 2pt data sample from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 release slightly degrades this agreement to the level of 1.54 ± 0.08σ, while still showing an overall consistency with Planck. We furthermore study the effect of imposing a Planck – like prior on the parameters that define the shape of the linear matter power spectrum, and find significantly tighter constraints on the parameters that control the evolution of density fluctuations. In particular, the combination of low-redshift data sets prefers a value of the physical dark energy density ω DE = 0.335 ± 0.011, which is 1.7σ higher than the one preferred by Planck.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wide-angle effects for peculiar velocities

ABSTRACT The line-of-sight peculiar velocities of galaxies contribute to their observed redshifts, breaking the translational invariance of galaxy clustering down to a rotational invariance around the observer. This becomes important when the line-of-sight direction varies significantly across a survey, leading to what are known as ‘wide-angle’ effects in redshift-space distortions. Wide-angle effects will also be present in measurements of the momentum field, i.e. the galaxy density-weighted velocity field, in upcoming peculiar velocity surveys. In this work, we study how wide-angle effects modify the predicted correlation function and power spectrum for momentum statistics, both in autocorrelation and in cross-correlation with the density field. Using both linear theory and the Zel'dovich approximation, we find that deviations from the plane-parallel limit are large and could become important in data analysis for low-redshift surveys. We point out that even multipoles in the cross-correlation between density and momentum are non-zero regardless of the choice of line of sight, and therefore contain new cosmological information that could be exploited. We discuss configuration space, Fourier space, and spherical analyses; providing exact expressions in each case rather than relying on an expansion in small angles. We hope these expressions will be of use in the analysis of upcoming surveys for redshift-space distortions and peculiar velocities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A non-linear solution to the S 8 tension – II. Analysis of DES Year 3 cosmic shear

ABSTRACT Weak galaxy lensing surveys have consistently reported low values of the S8 parameter compared to the Planck lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology. Amon & Efstathiou used KiDS-1000 cosmic shear measurements to propose that this tension can be reconciled if the matter fluctuation spectrum is suppressed more strongly on non-linear scales than assumed in state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations. In this paper, we investigate cosmic shear data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3. The non-linear suppression of the matter power spectrum required to resolve the S8 tension between DES and the Planck ΛCDM model is not as strong as inferred using KiDS data, but is still more extreme than predictions from recent numerical simulations. An alternative possibility is that non-standard dark matter contributes to the required suppression. We investigate the redshift and scale dependence of the suppression of the matter power spectrum. If our proposed explanation of the S8 tension is correct, the required suppression must extend into the mildly non-linear regime to wavenumbers $k\sim 0.2 \, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. In addition, all measures of S8 using linear scales should agree with the Planck ΛCDM cosmology, an expectation that will be testable to high precision in the near future.

Preston, Calvin (ORCID:0000000281136916)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmology from weak lensing peaks and minima with Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey first-year data

We present cosmological constraints derived from peak counts, minimum counts, and the angular power spectrum of the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam first-year (HSC Y1) weak lensing shear catalogue. Weak lensing peak and minimum counts contain non-Gaussian information and hence are complementary to the conventional two-point statistics in constraining cosmology. In this work, we forward-model the three summary statistics and their dependence on cosmology, using a suite of N-body simulations tailored to the HSC Y1 data. We investigate systematic and astrophysical effects including intrinsic alignments, baryon feedback, multiplicative bias, and photometric redshift uncertainties. We mitigate the impact of these systematics by applying cuts on angular scales, smoothing scales, signal-to-noise ratio bins, and tomographic redshift bins. By combining peaks, minima, and the power spectrum, assuming a flat-ΛCDM model, we obtain S 8 ≡ σ 8 $\sqrt{Ω_m/0.3}$ = 0.810$^{+0.022}_{-0.026}$⁠, a 35 per cent tighter constraint than that obtained from the angular power spectrum alone. Our results are in agreement with other studies using HSC weak lensing shear data, as well as with Planck 2018 cosmology and recent CMB lensing constraints from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the South Pole Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

HostSub_GP: Precise Galaxy Background Subtraction in Transient Long-slit Spectroscopy with Gaussian Processes

We present a novel host galaxy subtraction technique in long-slit spectroscopy for extragalactic transients. Unlike classic methods which generally estimate the background using simple interpolation of local galaxy flux in the 2D spectrum, our approach leverages multi-band archival images of the host galaxies to model the background emission from the galaxy in the 2D spectrum. Such imaging encodes the wavelength-dependent galaxy profile along the slit, and is readily accessible through wide-field imaging surveys. We construct a smooth prior for the 2D galaxy profile with a Gaussian process (GP) based on these reference images, and use another GP to model the correlated deviations from the prior in the observed spectrum. This enables accurate inference of the galaxy flux blended with the transient. On synthetic long-slit data of a spiral galaxy extracted from a Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer hyper-spectral cube, the GP method remains robust as long as the host galaxy is spatially resolved and consistently outperforms classic methods. We apply the method to archival Keck spectra of two real transients, SN 2019eix and AT 2019qiz, to further demonstrate how the method uniquely recovers weak spectral features amid strong galaxy contamination, enabling refined constraints on the properties of both transients. We have released the software implementation, HostSub_GP, a scalable toolkit that leverages JAX, with an MIT license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Window into the Baryon Cycle at Cosmic Noon with Line Intensity Mapping: Forecasts for auto- and cross-correlations in [CII]-158$μ$m, HI 21 cm, CO$_{J+1\rightarrow J}$, and H$α$ galaxies

Across the peak of cosmic star formation at $z\sim1-2$, inflow, processing, and feedback drive rapid changes in the spatial distribution and chemical composition of baryons in galaxies and surrounding reservoirs; this baryon cycle can be tomographically mapped by line intensity mapping (LIM) of atomic hydrogen, ionized carbon, and carbon monoxide. We present a simulation-based forecasting framework for detecting auto- and cross-power spectra between spectroscopic surveys of four such tracers at $z\sim0.5-1.7$ mapping the same deep field - TIM, EoRSpec/FYST, MeerKAT, & Euclid. We forward-model 3-D distributions for these tracers from magnetohydrodynamic simulations, directly capturing the two-halo, one-halo, and shot statistics without relying on analytical decompositions. We further detail a signal-to-noise formalism, tailored to LIM surveys with highly anisotropic geometries and Fourier-space coverage. We demonstrate that galaxy cross-correlations will be the dominant discovery channel for current-generation surveys. These instruments will detect the auto-spectra for CO and HI 21 cm and the CO $\times$ 21 cm cross-spectrum at modest S/N $\sim 1-10$, while placing upper limits on the [CII]-158$μ$m signals. [CII], CO, and HI LIM will be $\sim3-30\times$ ($0.5-1.5$ dex) more sensitive to cross-correlation with the Euclid survey, however, than their respective auto-correlations, constraining all three models of line emission at high significance (S/N $\sim 10-40$) within this decade. Finally, we formulate a staged instrumental trajectory with planned or reasonable improvements, including the as-proposed SKA-Mid. We forecast advancing the per-$k$-mode sensitivities of each auto-, galaxy-line, and line-line spectrum by several orders of magnitude, enabling new percent- and sub-percent level constraints on cosmology and the redshift evolution of star formation and the baryon cycle.

Agrawal, Shubh [Pennsylvania U., Dept. Math.]↗