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At least 127 records · Page 7

Explainable artificial intelligence relates perovskite luminescence images to current-voltage metrics

As the demand for low-cost, high-efficiency solar energy technologies grows, metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells have emerged as a promising candidate for next-generation photovoltaics due to their high power conversion efficiencies. However, their poor durability and issues with manufacturing consistency remain significant barriers to commercialization. In this work, we develop deep learning models to support materials characterization and provide insight into features and processes influencing performance. The models are trained using transfer learning of a pretrained model to predict relevant current-voltage (IV) metrics based on different combinations of input electroluminescence (EL) and photoluminescence (PL) images of MHP devices. We examine which image types are most informative in accurately predicting different IV metrics. Additionally, we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to provide insights into specific spatial features in the devices that drive differences in performance. We find that stabilized luminescence images (e.g. those collected after biasing the devices for at least 1 min) are better for predicting metrics of open-circuit voltage (by PL) and short-circuit current (by PL with EL), but that predicting fill factor and overall power output may use the time-evolution of EL images. Based on attribution masks generated by integrated gradients for each device performance metric, we further suggest different loss mechanisms associated with categories of large and small spatial defects. Overall, this case study highlights the potential applicability of XAI methodology for streamlining MHP device analysis and accelerating detailed understanding of the relationships between spatial defects and impacts on performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Towards the next generation of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence

Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI), as the integration of geospatial studies and AI, has become one of the fastest-developing research directions in spatial data science and geography. This rapid change in the field calls for a deeper understanding of the recent developments and envision where the field is going in the near future. In this work, we provide a quantitative analysis of the GeoAI literature from the spatial, temporal, and semantic aspects. We briefly discuss the history of AI and GeoAI by highlighting some pioneering work. Then we discuss the current landscape of GeoAI by selecting five representative subdomains including remote sensing, urban computing, Earth system science, cartography, and geospatial semantics. Finally, we highlight several unique future research directions of GeoAI which are classified into two groups: GeoAI method development challenges and GeoAI Ethics challenges. Topics include heterogeneity-aware GeoAI, knowledge-guided GeoAI, spatial representation learning, geo-foundation models, fairness-aware GeoAI, privacy-aware GeoAI, as well as interpretable and explainable GeoAI. We hope our review of GeoAI’s past, present, and future is comprehensive and can enlighten the next generation of GeoAI research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of Dilute DIO Additive on Local Microstructure of Fluorinated, pNDI‐Based Polymer Solar Cells

The performance of all‐polymer solar cells is often enhanced by incorporating solvent additives during solution processing. Here, in particular, blends based on the model all‐polymer system PBDBT:N2200 have been shown to have increased short‐circuit current and fill factor when processed with dilute diiodooctane (DIO). However, the morphological mechanism that drives the increase in performance is often not well understood due to limitations in common characterization techniques. In this study, it is shown that a combination of X‐ray techniques with cryogenic high‐resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) analysis can provide a quantitative and spatially resolved picture of polymer chain orientation and alignment in all‐polymer blends. It is found that DIO induces vertical phase separation in PBDBT‐2F:F‐N2200 and increases donor crystallite thickness in the pi‐stacking direction leading to an acceptor‐rich film surface. However, it is also shown that DIO does not disrupt the formation of face‐on donor–acceptor interfaces. These findings suggest that dilute DIO primarily affects crystalline domain formation in single component regions as opposed to mixed regions; thus, dilute DIO can impact vertical charge transport pathways without sacrificing donor–acceptor interfacial connectivity.

Cheng, Christina↗

Janus Superiority of Membranes in Chemical Engineering and Beyond

Janus configurations, characterized by their inherent asymmetry, enable directional mass transfer in membrane materials that drive novel and energy-efficient chemical processes. This Janus superiority spans applications from nanoscale molecular and ionic transport to macro-scale separation systems with asymmetric spatial architectures. This review provides an analysis of the material foundations including design principles, structure regulation, and scalability challenges underlying Janus membranes. Here, we explore the physics that governs their unique behavior and examine their diverse applications across chemical engineering, including phase transfer, and molecular or ionic transport. Through a multiscale perspective, we provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of Janus superiority in advancing chemical engineering technologies. Finally, we discuss the hurdles in translating theoretical advances into practical applications and propose promising avenues for future research to harness the full potential of Janus membranes and systems in addressing global challenges related to energy, sustainability, and beyond.

Yang, Hao‐Cheng [Zhejiang University, Hangzhou (Ch↗

MetaHeart: Metasurface enabled biometrics camouflage

Privacy-invading biometrics monitoring is becoming a prominent security threat as modern sensing systems move to higher operating frequencies (mmWave, sub-THz), increasing sensing resolution and accuracy. As such, developing systems that can protect or obfuscate biometrics from adversarial intrusion becomes pivotal to preserving user privacy. In this work, we develop and implement MetaHeart, a real-time biometrics misinformation system based on reflective, programmable metasurfaces and dynamic phase-front manipulation of radar inferences. MetaHeart’s key goal is to prevent the leakage of a legitimate user’s heartbeat biometrics by spoofing fake heartbeat signals at a malicious, radar-equipped, heart rate sensing intruder. Furthermore, we experimentally demonstrate MetaHeart’s ability to fake Alice’s presence when she is not there and to fool Trudy’s inferences even when Alice is present, achieving an overall accuracy above 98%. Finally, we conduct a robustness analysis to determine MetaHeart’s required spatial placement within the intruder’s monitoring area that would allow for effective spoofing.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Synthesis, Processing, and Use of Isotopically Enriched Epitaxial Oxide Thin Films

Isotopic engineering has emerged as a key approach to study the nucleation, diffusion, phase transitions, and reactions of materials at an atomic level. It aims to uncover mass transport pathways, kinetics, and operational and failure mechanisms of functional materials and devices. Understanding these phenomena leads to deeper insights into important physical processes, such as the transport of ions in energy conversion and storage devices and the role of active sites and supports during heterogeneous catalytic reactions. Likewise, isotopic engineering is being pursued as a means of modifying functionality to enable future technological applications. In this Account, we summarize our recent work employing isotope labeling (e.g., 18 O 2 and 57 Fe) during thin film synthesis and postgrowth processing to reveal growth mechanisms, defect chemistry, and elemental diffusion under working and extreme conditions. Isotope-resolved analysis techniques with nanometer-scale spatial resolution, such as time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry and atom probe tomography, facilitate the accurate quantification of isotopic placement and concentration in our well-defined heterostructures with precisely positioned, isotope-enriched layers. By measuring the nanometer-scale redistribution between natural abundance and isotopically enriched oxygen layers during the deposition of Fe 2 O 3 and Cr 2 O 3 by molecular beam epitaxy, we identified intermixing processes driven by surface adatoms occurring both at the film growth surface and within the first few layers below the surface. Further insights into synthesis mechanisms were gained by studying the tungsten oxide thin films grown by evaporating WO 3 powder in the presence of background 18 O 2 , revealing minimal incorporation of background oxygen during the film formation process. Thermal and radiation-enhanced diffusion in epitaxial Fe and Cr oxides were precisely tracked using 18 O and 57 Fe tracer layers incorporated into model epitaxial oxide thin films. This approach has allowed us to access thermal diffusion behavior at lower temperatures than previously measured, revealing a potential changeover in diffusion mechanism. Understanding radiation-enhanced diffusion in model oxides that represent the surface layers on the structural components of nuclear reactors informs our understanding of their corrosion behavior under irradiation. Isotopic labeling can also provide unique insights into the surface exchange reactions and defect chemistry of electrocatalysts. For instance, tracking the change in 18 O concentration at the surface of an epitaxial LaNiO 3 thin film after the electrocatalytic oxygen evolution reaction revealed the participation of lattice oxygen, confirming a hypothesis that had been proposed previously. Lastly, we highlight a new direction wherein we perform in situ processing studies utilizing isotopic tracers in conjunction with model epitaxial thin films within the atom probe tomography instrument. Additionally, this Account illustrates the great potential of isotopic engineering to enable fundamental mechanistic insights into physical processes and engineer functional properties in epitaxial films, heterostructures, and superlattices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Many-Body Benchmark of Electronic Charge and Spin Densities for Li 1–x NiO 2

Accurate benchmarks are particularly important for highly correlated oxides as mean-field approximations often fail to describe the subtle balance of charge transfer and magnetism in these materials with an accuracy comparable to experimental needs. Here we present accurate diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) results of the electronic charge and spin densities for the tunable highly correlated oxide Li 1–x NiO 2 for x = 0, 1/2, and 1. To enable quantitative comparisons, we introduce a robust density-partitioning scheme, extending Voronoi analysis to assign atomic charges from spatially noisy DMC densities. We then benchmark common approximations used in density functional theory (DFT). Comparison against DMC shows that r 2 SCAN delivers the most balanced performance across charge, spin, and radial density descriptors, nearly reproducing DMC results for LiNiO 2 and apical Ni sites in Li 0.5 NiO 2 . Hybrid functionals (PBE0, SCAN0) perform unexpectedly poorly, and PBE + U + V yields inconsistent trends between charge and spin densities. Therefore, the r 2 SCAN functional minimizes errors relative to DMC while capturing the variable valence of the Ni ion and also retaining the computational efficiency of DFT for large-scale simulations of the tunable structural and electronic phases of Li1−xNiO2. Our study highlights the importance of accurate benchmarking of the fundamental quantities involved in DFT to select appropriate DFT approximations in order to advance the predictive modeling of charge-transfer-driven phenomena in correlated electron systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Lignin structural changes and high p -coumaroylation in incipient lignification in moso bamboo

Lignification is a crucial process for strengthening plant tissues, facilitating water transport, and providing defense against pathogens. In the Poaceae family, p-hydroxycinnamic acids are commonly incorporated into lignin, with acylation by p-coumarate (pCA) occurring during lignification. In this study, we performed DFRC and 2D HSQC-NMR analyses to investigate changes in lignin substructures and the degree of lignin pCA-acylation throughout bamboo stem development. Furthermore, immunohistochemical analysis was conducted to elucidate the spatial distribution of lignin substructures within different cell types. Our results revealed that, in young tissues, β–O–4-linked lignin units are predominantly derived from monolignol-pCA conjugates, specifically coniferyl- and sinapyl-pCA. Both lignin structure and the pattern of pCA acylation varied depending on the stage of cell wall formation and the cell type, particularly between vascular fiber cells and parenchyma cells. Based on our results, moso bamboo culms exhibit a distinctive feature during incipient lignification, in which monolignols are predominantly acylated with pCA. As a result, this feature has not been reported in other grasses, suggesting that extensive p-coumaroylation of monolignols plays an important role in the rapid elongation of bamboo culms.

Munekata, Noriaki [Kyoto University (Japan); Unive↗

Red–green–blue Boolean image analysis of particulate debris laced with luminescent tracers

Abstract Particulate mass estimation from 3-pixel images is desirable in many fields. Red–green–blue (RGB) analysis and Boolean logic were shown to estimate the mass of luminescent tracers in microscopic images. With a controlled background intensity, an estimation error of 1.8 to 3.5% was achieved; in uncontrolled backgrounds, an error of about 18% was achieved. RGB analysis is a valuable tool for spatial location of particulates. This work shows it is possible to estimate the particulate mass in an image and gives RGB an extension into mass quantification that has far-reaching impacts in fields involving the fate and transport of particulate matter. Graphical abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Status Report on Characterization of High Burnup Fuel with Advanced Nondestructive Pulsed Neutron PIE

Characterizing irradiated or spent nuclear fuels with pulsed neutron techniques provides microstructural data such as phase fractions as well as crystallographic data, e.g. lattice parameters, from diffraction analysis. Diffraction characterization is complemented by spatially resolved mapping of isotope densities from energy-resolved neutron imaging, in particular neutron absorption resonance imaging, and overall bulk isotope assay with better sensitivity for minority isotopes from neutron absorption resonance spectroscopy without spatial resolution. Furthermore, after characterization at ambient condition, heating of irradiated or spent fuel will allow to characterize differences of e.g. lattice thermal expansion or phase transition temperature and kinetics compared to fresh fuel as well as enable the study of disappearance of irradiation defects. This data enables benchmarking of predictions of properties of irradiated fuels for which otherwise experimental data is sparse. The effort described here strives to characterize a section cut from a high-burnup fuel. Volumes smaller than entire fuel pellets or rodlets as proposed here, e.g. sections cut from a fuel pellet, to pave the way to characterize entire pellets or rodlets in the future.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗

Hyperspectral segmentation of plants in fabricated ecosystems

Hyperspectral imaging provides a powerful tool for analyzing above-ground plant characteristics in fabricated ecosystems, offering rich spectral information across diverse wavelengths. This study presents an efficient workflow for hyperspectral data segmentation and subsequent data analytics, minimizing the need for user annotation through the use of ensembles of sparse mixed scale convolution neural networks. The segmentation process leverages the diversity of ensembles to achieve high accuracy with minimal labeled data, reducing labor-intensive annotation efforts. To further enhance robustness, we incorporate image alignment techniques to address spatial variability in the dataset. Downstream analysis focuses on using the segmented data for processing spectral data, enabling monitoring of plant health. This approach provides a scalable solution for spectral segmentation, and facilitates actionable insights into plant conditions in complex, controlled environments. Our results demonstrate the utility of combining advanced machine learning techniques with hyperspectral analytics for high-throughput plant monitoring.

Zwart, Petrus H.↗

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability: Supporting Data and Code

This repository contains R code and associated datasets for reproducing the analysis described in the manuscript titled “Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability” (DOI: 10.1029/2024JG008604). The provided scripts facilitate a comprehensive analysis of snow depth variability influenced by microtopography and vegetation distribution in a subarctic watershed. Included datasets are high-resolution spatial maps of snow depth, terrain elevation, vegetation height, and distance from shrubs taller than 1 meter, all formatted as text files (.txt). These data are fully describe in doi:10.15485/2316038. Users can adapt the provided R scripts to accommodate different data formats or larger spatial domains, noting that some output files may require modification due to their size.The code includes implementations for boosted regression tree analysis adapted from methods outlined in Elith et al. (2008). Users interested in understanding or modeling landscape-scale snow distribution patterns, particularly in Arctic or subarctic ecosystems, will find this package useful. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Source apportionment of airborne volatile organic compounds near unconventional oil and gas development

Oil and natural gas (ONG) extraction emits volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Certain VOCs are identified as hazardous air pollutants (HAPS) while others contribute to ozone formation. This study examines the impact of ONG operations on VOC levels during the development of multi-well ONG pads in suburban Broomfield, Colorado. From October 2018 to December 2020, weekly VOC measurements were taken at 18 sites across the area. These included spots near well pads, in adjacent neighborhoods, and at a background site, covering various stages of well pad development including drilling, hydraulic fracturing, flowback, and production. Analysis using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) identified six factors, including combustion, background/biogenic sources, light and complex alkanes, drilling activities, and ONG acetylene. Factors linked to local ONG activities exhibited clear temporal and spatial correlations with Broomfield well development. Benzene source analysis revealed distinct contribution gradients, with ONG-related sources notably influencing areas near the well pads, particularly in pre-production. ONG-related weekly benzene contributions varied from 9% to 63% at a community background site and 18% to 89% in a neighborhood close to a well pad.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency under drought stress: a case study of the Helan Mountain region, northwest China

Context Water use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental ecological indicator links carbon assimilation and water loss in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding its responses to drought stress is essential for adaptive ecosystem management, particularly in climate-sensitive mountain landscapes. Objectives This study aimed to investigate drought-driven variations in WUE across major vegetation types in the Helan Mountain region of Northwest China. Specifically, we sought to identify dominant ecological drivers of WUE variability and to disentangle their relative importance and causal pathways. Methods We quantified WUE using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and the Drought Severity Index (DSI) data from 2001 to 2020. To examine WUE – drought relationships across contrasting vegetation types, we employed a spatially explicit analytical framework integrating Random Forest (RF) modeling, partial correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results Regional WUE exhibited relatively stable interannual dynamics, yet pronounced spatial heterogeneity that was strongly modulated by drought conditions. Vegetation properties, particularly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emerged as the dominant determinants of WUE, with NDVI alone explaining over 20% of its spatial variance in forest and grassland during non-drought periods. SEM analyses revealed that climate forcing influenced WUE mainly through indirect pathways mediated by soil moisture availability and vegetation structural dynamics, rather than through direct climatic controls. Among all regulating factors, LAI acted as the central control node governing ecosystem carbon–water coupling. In contrast, short-term climatic stress, especially atmospheric demand and drought duration, exerted weak or negative direct effects on WUE. Ecosystem-specific responses were observed, with croplands mainly regulated by soil water availability, whereas forests and grasslands showed more sensitive to atmospheric drought stress. Together, these results reveal a hierarchical control framework where soil–vegetation interactions mediate climate impacts on WUE, driving strong spatial heterogeneity in drought responses across mountain landscapes. Conclusions Our findings highlight the pivotal role of indirect drought effects mediated by vegetation and soil processes in shaping ecosystem WUE. The identified soil–vegetation–climate regulatory hierarchy provides mechanistic insight into landscape–scale drought sensitivity and supports integrated modeling approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience and sustainable management in arid mountain regions.

China↗

Spatial Optimization of Multiscale Biorefinery Deployment for a Diversified Bioeconomy in the United States

Strategic biorefinery siting is critical for a diversified bioeconomy, yet industry, policy, and research often focus on either large-scale biofuel plants or smaller-scale specialty bioproduct facilities, with limited coordination across scales. We address this gap by modeling biorefinery deployment spanning a 28-fold difference in capacity. We developed an open-source, spatially explicit framework integrating techno-economic analysis with logistics and refinery cost surrogate models to evaluate multiscale miscanthus-derived biorefineries across the rainfed U.S. for the production of ethanol, succinic acid, lactic acid, potassium sorbate, and acrylic acid. Overall costs change little as feedstock density increases, while transport distances decrease by ∼30 to 67% (∼100 km) and siting flexibility improves. Specifically, a 5-fold feedstock density increase (2% to 10% of suitable land) reduces minimum selling prices by <10% (e.g., 0.27 USD·gal –1 for ethanol). This limited economic sensitivity suggests dense planting is not required for competitive deployment, particularly for smaller-scale facilities. Representing collection areas as irregular rather than circular expands the feasible space under low-density scenarios. While large-scale refineries anchor regional supply chains, smaller facilities retain spatial flexibility even when large refineries are established. These findings highlight the importance of spatial representation and multiscale coordination for robust, regionally tailored biomanufacturing networks to advance renewable carbon integration without extensive land conversion.

biorefinery siting↗