Causal Inference: A Bridge Between Simulation Models and Observed Phenomena
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The dispositioning of nuclear waste generated at facilities across the country is an ongoing battle that affects us all. National laboratories and research centers dealing in medical research, clean energy, and other nuclear activities such as the Department of Energy (DOE) facilities face the need to properly manage and dispose of nuclear waste. A dynamic modeling solution would enable the DOE and others to make decisions on waste disposal and technological options. In doing so, this research explores modeling techniques using available data to address these situations. The focus being on developing an initial robust and adaptable discrete event model using the ExtendSim tool. This modeling effort will target the dispositioning of transuranic waste at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) which can be expanded to represent the current state of disposition process for waste generated at other DOE facilities. The model aims to assess resource allocation and waste processing options to stabilize productivity and cut the backlog of nuclear waste. By assessing the results of different scenarios, this research aims to provide actionable insights for the DOE. This approach has the potential to significantly improve the management of radioactive waste, offering the capability of evaluating options for optimizing the process for nuclear waste disposal. The findings of this study can serve as a valuable resource for decision-makers and other national laboratories, or research entities engaged in nuclear operations by enabling them to make more informed choices.
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Microclimate acts as a strong filter on species performance in restored and regenerating forests, particularly in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). Yet few studies have measured microclimate patterns across succession in SDTF. Furthermore, although dynamic vegetation models simulate microclimate, evaluation of these simulated variables with field observations has been relatively uncommon. Here, we investigated the seasonal patterns of soil temperature and soil water in naturally regenerated and planted successional vegetation in SDTF in Costa Rica and Puerto Rico, using complementary approaches of intensive field observations and simulation modeling with the Ecosystem Demography model. We found that plots representing later successional stages were wetter on average, but only during the dry season. During the wet season, mean soil water did not differ across vegetation types, but open, early successional vegetation experienced more frequent extreme wet and dry conditions than older forest and plantations. Soil temperature tended to decline with forest structure, and later successional vegetation also experienced less extreme daily temperature fluctuations. Basal area and leaf area index were the best predictors of differences in soil water and temperature across plots. Model simulations were consistent with observations of wet season soil temperature and soil water, but the model failed to reproduce dry season soil moisture dynamics, suggesting that further work is needed to reduce model biases in microclimate variables. Collectively, our results imply that common assumptions about how microclimates influence successional processes in SDTF should be revisited.
In developing countries, agriculture generally represents a large fraction of GHG emissions reported in National Inventories, and emissions are typically estimated using Tier 1 IPCC guidelines. However, field data and locally adapted simulation models can improve the accuracy of IPCC estimations. In this report we aimed to quantify anthropogenic N2O emissions from croplands of Argentina through field measurements, model simulations and IPCC guidelines. Here we measured N 2 O emissions and their controlling factors in 62 plots of the Pampas Region with corn, soybean and wheat/soybean crops and in unmanaged grasslands. We accounted for gross emissions from crops and background emissions from unmanaged grasslands to calculate net anthropogenic emissions from crops as the difference between them. We calibrated and evaluated the DayCent model and then simulated different weather and management scenarios. Finally, we applied IPCC guidelines to estimate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions at the same plots. The DayCent model accurately simulated annual N 2 O emission for all crops as compared to measured data (RMSE = 1.4 g N ha -1 day -1 ). Measured and simulated emissions in soybean crops were higher than in corn and wheat/soybean crops. Gross N 2 O emissions ranged from 1.4 to 5.1 kg N ha -1 yr -1 for current environmental (soil and weather) and management (crops and fertilizer doses) conditions. Background emissions ranged between 1.1 and 1.3 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , and therefore net anthropogenic emissions ranged from 0.3 to 4.0 kg N ha-1 yr -1 . IPCC Tier 1 emission factors underestimated N2O releases from soybean, that were on average 4.87 times greater when estimated with DayCent and observations (0.53 vs 2.47 and 2.69 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , respectively). On the contrary, IPCC estimates for corn and wheat/soybean crops were similar to modeled and measured values. Our results suggest that N 2 O emissions from the vast 15 million ha of soybean croplands in the Pampas Region may be substantially underestimated.
Simulating the Hubbard model is of great interest to a wide range of applications within condensed matter physics, however its solution on classical computers remains challenging in dimensions larger than one. The relative simplicity of this model, embodied by the sparseness of the Hamiltonian matrix, allows for its efficient implementation on quantum computers, and for its approximate solution using variational algorithms such as the variational quantum eigensolver. While these algorithms have been shown to reproduce the qualitative features of the Hubbard model, their quantitative accuracy in terms of producing true ground state energies and other properties, and the dependence of this accuracy on the system size and interaction strength, the choice of variational ansatz, and the degree of spatial inhomogeneity in the model, remains unknown. Here we present a rigorous classical benchmarking study, demonstrating the potential impact of these factors on the accuracy of the variational solution of the Hubbard model on quantum hardware, for systems with up to 32 qubits. We find that even when using the most accurate wavefunction ansätze for the Hubbard model, the error in its ground state energy and wavefunction plateaus for larger lattices, while stronger electronic correlations magnify this issue. Concurrently, spatially inhomogeneous parameters and the presence of off-site Coulomb interactions only have a small effect on the accuracy of the computed ground state energies. Our study highlights the capabilities and limitations of current approaches for solving the Hubbard model on quantum hardware, and we discuss potential future avenues of research.
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Photovoltaic inverter (PV) inverter manufacturers use custom, proprietary control approaches and topologies in their inverter design. Due to this proprietary nature, it is not possible to share EMT domain models for system studies. This research work presents a novel approach in experimental design, high fidelity data collection, use of learning-based modeling, and co-simulation to enhance the PV inverter modeling. We used a 20 kW off-the-shelf grid following PV inverter and subjected the inverter to controlled tests including voltage and frequency step changes, as well as solar irradiance variations. The recorded high frequency data was used in learning-based model training. This learning-based model was imported into an Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) simulation tool using co-simulation techniques to complete the modeling effort and integrate the model into an EMT simulation tool. The three key components in this research work are the design of experimental setup, use of learning-based approach for model development and use of co-simulation to complete the approach. The proposed approach will allow users to develop a model in a really short period of time and achieve reasonable inverter models.
As transportation systems move toward electrification and decarbonization, multifunctional charging stations (MFCS) are emerging as key infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). This paper presents a simulation model of an MFCS that integrates solar photovoltaic (PV), wind power, battery storage, hydrogen (\mathrm{H}_{2}) production, dual-pressure \mathrm{H}_{2} storage, fuel cells, and dynamic grid interactions. The model simulates daily operations using 5 -minute resolution data to capture realtime variability in renewable energy (RE), demand, and electricity prices. A flexible dispatch algorithm dynamically allocates energy for EV charging, \mathrm{H}_{2} production, storage, and grid transactions while respecting system constraints. Results show that the MFCS effectively prioritizes RE usage, minimizes waste, meets diverse energy demands, and achieves net operational profit. The model serves as a valuable decision-support tool for designing and optimizing integrated clean energy hubs for zero-emission transportation.
Photovoltaic (PV) inverter manufacturers use custom, proprietary control approaches and topologies in their inverter design. The proprietary nature of these approaches makes it challenging to share electromagnetic transients (EMT) domain models for system studies. This research work presents an approach to develop EMT models from experimental data. We use novel approach in experimental design, high fidelity data collection, use of learning-based modeling, and co-simulation to reduce the time taken to develop an EMT model for an inverter under test (IUT). We used a 20 kW off-the-shelf grid following PV inverter and subjected the inverter to controlled tests. The tests include voltage and frequency step changes, as well as solar irradiance variations. The recorded high frequency data were used to train a neural network model representing the dynamic behavior of the IUT. The model was subsequently imported into an EMT tool using co-simulation techniques, and thus completing the modeling effort.
Model resolution plays a large role in accurately simulating the Southern Hemisphere circulation in both the ocean and atmosphere. Resolving the mesoscale field is important as it has been shown to have a significant impact on the large-scale climate in eddy-rich regions, which are regions of large CO2 absorption. The presence of ocean and atmospheric mesoscale features can affect sea surface temperatures, the strength and location of storm tracks, and many other air-sea processes. Additionally, with an improvement in resolution, the eddy kinetic energy in the ocean can be expected to change considerably. The significance model resolution has on the Southern Hemisphere is examined using the Community Climate System Model, Version 4, eddy-parameterizing and eddy-resolving simulations. The CO2 concentrations and ozone levels are specified independently to better understand how the mesoscale field responds to extreme changes in external forcing and the resulting climate impacts. Overall, in the eddy-parameterizing simulations, the ozone forcing is found to be more important than the changes in CO2 concentrations. However, in the case of the eddy-resolving simulations, the CO2 concentrations are found to be more dominant, especially in eddy-rich regions. These results demonstrate the need for an increase in model resolution for climate prediction.
For the research of high-frequency electromagnetic waves in tokamaks, an electromagnetic simulation model, in which the ion dynamics is described by a six-dimensional Vlasov equation and the electron dynamics is described by a drift kinetic equation, is formulated and implemented in the global gyrokinetic toroidal code (GTC). Analytic dispersion relations are derived in reduced systems and compared with various theories to verify the model. Linear simulations of a generalized ion Bernstein wave and ion cyclotron emission are verified by comparing the GTC simulation results with analytic dispersion relation theory and magnetoacoustic cyclotron instability theory, respectively, in cylindrical geometry.
Modeling and simulation in many science and engineering domains often involves the execution and/or iteration of a sequence of applications, with data transfer between applications typically required. These applications often do not have a formal application programming interface (API). Instead, executing an application requires first writing a text-based input file, the format of which is typically defined in a user’s manual. While text-based input files are suitable for simple one-off calculations, they can become cumbersome if a user wants to execute the applications multiple times and systematically vary input parameters, especially when a complex workflow is involved. In this case, they must resort to either manually making changes in the input file or developing their own script that modifies the input file and executes the application. Depending on the format of the input file, writing such a script can be a non-trivial and error-prone task.
Modeling and simulation of fuel burnup plays important roles in reactor design, operation, safety, and security as well as nuclear material control and accounting (MC&A) [1]. This task is uniquely challenging for pebble bed reactors (PBR) because the pebbles are continuously added and recycled into the reactor core, and their paths through the core are random. To address this problem, we present two simulation models in this paper. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) developed a simple lattice model of a PBR in Serpent software to generate used pebble isotopic concentrations. The benefit of using Serpent software in this specific application is that it helps streamline the data generation process without having to use too many independent software codes in combination to achieve a simple task. For example, transport, burnup and zero power decay can be implemented in a single pass. Three-dimensional core models were developed using Serpent to simulate the burnup process of 5 subject pebbles starting from fresh till they reach nearly target burnup, with each pebble placed in one of the five artificially designated radial channels to capture the changing neutron spectra along the core radius. Equilibrium isotopic concentrations were assumed in all other pebbles in the core. To provide a verification for the Serpent isotope transmutation and decay results, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed simple SCALE/ORIGEN calculations using the average neutron spectra calculated by Serpent for each of the 5 pebbles. The 252-group neutron spectra from Serpent were then used by ORIGEN to produce the one-group library for depletion and decay calculations. The isotopic concentrations of a few nuclides of interest and neutron and gamma source terms produced from the ORIGEN calculations were compared with the ones from the Serpent calculations. The model simulated in this work was based on the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)-400 design because many data needed for the simulation such as core power profiles, fuel and reflector temperatures, and equilibrium core composition are publicly available. In this paper, we will compare the results between these two approaches and benchmark the results against a set of well-established simulation results for PBMR-400.
Modeling and simulation of fuel burnup plays important roles in reactor design, operation, safety, and security as well as nuclear material control and accounting (MC&A) [1]. This task is uniquely challenging for pebble bed reactors (PBR) because the pebbles are continuously added and recycled into the reactor core, and their paths through the core are random. To address this problem, we present two simulation models in this paper. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) developed a simple lattice model of a PBR in Serpent software to generate used pebble isotopic concentrations. The benefit of using Serpent software in this specific application is that it helps streamline the data generation process without having to use too many independent software codes in combination to achieve a simple task. For example, transport, burnup and zero power decay can be implemented in a single pass. Three-dimensional core models were developed using Serpent to simulate the burnup process of five subject pebbles starting from fresh till they reach nearly target burnup, with each pebble placed in one of the five artificially designated radial channels to capture the changing neutron spectra along the core radius. Equilibrium isotopic concentrations were assumed in all other pebbles in the core. To provide a verification for the Serpent isotope transmutation and decay results, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) performed simple SCALE/ORIGEN calculations using the average neutron spectra calculated by Serpent for each of the five pebbles. The 252-group neutron spectra from Serpent were then used by ORIGEN to produce the one-group library for depletion and decay calculations. The isotopic concentrations of a few nuclides of interest and neutron and gamma source terms produced from the ORIGEN calculations were compared with the ones from the Serpent calculations. The model simulated in this work was based on the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)-400 design because many data needed for the simulation such as core power profiles, fuel and reflector temperatures, and equilibrium core composition are publicly available. In this paper, we will compare the results between these two approaches and benchmark the results against a set of well-established simulation results for PBMR-400.
With the rise of interest in thermal neutron scattering data for advanced reactor, criticality safety, and shielding applications, new experimental data are required for evaluation of new materials or for re-evaluation (or validations) of previously evaluated materials. New experimental data are evaluated in a three-step process: (1) computing the phonon characteristics, (2) computing the dynamic structure factor (DSF) from the data, and (3) using the experimental setup to simulate the experimental data. All three steps have challenges, ranging from the need for a sufficiently general material simulation code—a processing code that can compute the corresponding DSF—to having a detailed layout of the instrument/beamline/facility where the data were measured. Whereas phonon characteristics of materials can be computed using various methods (molecular dynamics, density functional theory, etc.), a high-fidelity computation of the DSF and the simulation of the experiment based on the DSF is vital to the accuracy of the evaluation. The latter two steps can be achieved by using the two corresponding code systems developed by instrument scientists at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory: (1) OCLIMAX, a program that calculates the dynamic structure factor from DFT and MD simulation results, and (2) MCViNE, a Monte Carlo neutron ray-tracing program designed to simulate neutron scattering experiments. Recently, polyethylene and yttrium hydride were measured at the Wide Angular-Range Chopper (ARCS) and SEQUOIA instrument stations of the SNS. These experiments are simulated using the density functional theory code, the Cambridge Serial Total Energy Package (CASTEP), to compute its phonon characteristics (eigenvalues/vectors and PDOS), which is then processed using OCLIMAX to yield the DSF, and finally the data at each instrument station are simulated by the MCViNE for comparison to the measured data for evaluation. For comparison to conventional evaluation methods, the scattering data processed from OCLIMAX are compared against those processed from the LEAPR module of NJOY, and the results from MCViNE simulations are compared against previously used simplified beamline models implemented in the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code.