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DOE OSTI2025

An update to the Sandia method for creating Typical Meteorological Years from a limited pool of calendar years

Typical Meteorological Years (TMYs) are essential for the efficient evaluation of energy system performance. Ideally, 30 years of weather data are required to generate TMYs, but significantly fewer years are typically available due to practical limitations. To address this issue, an update to the Sandia method was developed, referred to as the Argonne method, to create TMYs from a limited number of years. Furthermore, this method enhances candidate diversity by systematically shifting original candidate months forward or backward by specific days, creating an expanded pool of candidates. The effectiveness of the Argonne method was validated through statistical testing, comparison of monthly average weather parameters, and numerical simulations. The results demonstrate a high probability of identifying at least one shifted month whose cumulative distribution functions of weather parameters closely align with long-term distributions. In 67 % of all comparisons, the monthly average weather parameters in TMYs generated using the Argonne method exhibit better agreement with long-term averages than TMY3. Moreover, in 74 % of the 318 building simulation cases, the Argonne method outperforms TMY3 in estimating long-term average building heating and cooling demands. Therefore, the Argonne method effectively diversifies the candidate pool and produces typical years that provide more accurate estimations of long-term averages compared to TMY3 when only a limited pool of calendar years (10 years or fewer) is available.

Building energy modeling↗

NASA NTRS1992

Adaptation of multidimensional group particle tracking and particle wall-boundary condition model to the FDNS code

A particulate two-phase flow CFD model was developed based on the FDNS code which is a pressure based predictor plus multi-corrector Navier-Stokes flow solver. Turbulence models with compressibility correction and the wall function models were employed as submodels. A finite-rate chemistry model was used for reacting flow simulation. For particulate two-phase flow simulations, a Eulerian-Lagrangian solution method using an efficient implicit particle trajectory integration scheme was developed in this study. Effects of particle-gas reaction and particle size change to agglomeration or fragmentation were not considered in this investigation. At the onset of the present study, a two-dimensional version of FDNS which had been modified to treat Lagrangian tracking of particles (FDNS-2DEL) had already been written and was operational. The FDNS-2DEL code was too slow for practical use, mainly because it had not been written in a form amenable to vectorization on the Cray, nor was the full three-dimensional form of FDNS utilized. The specific objective of this study was to reorder to calculations into long single arrays for automatic vectorization on the Cray and to implement the full three-dimensional version of FDNS to produce the FDNS-3DEL code. Since the FDNS-2DEL code was slow, a very limited number of test cases had been run with it. This study was also intended to increase the number of cases simulated to verify and improve, as necessary, the particle tracking methodology coded in FDNS.

Chen, Y. S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The First Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet from TESS. III. Climate States and Characterization Prospects for TOI-700 d

We present self-consistent three-dimensional climate simulations of possible habitable states for the newly discovered habitable-zone Earth-sized planet TOI-700 d. We explore a variety of atmospheric compositions, pressures, and rotation states for both ocean-covered and completely desiccated planets in order to assess the planet’s potential for habitability. For all 20 of our simulated cases, we use our climate model outputs to synthesize transmission spectra, combined-light spectra, and integrated broadband phase curves. These climatologically informed observables will help the community assess the technological capabilities necessary for future characterization of this planet—as well as similar transiting planets discovered in the future—and will provide a guide for distinguishing possible climate states if one day we do obtain sensitive spectral observations of a habitable planet around an M star. We find that TOI-700 d is a strong candidate for a habitable world and can potentially maintain temperate surface conditions under a wide variety of atmospheric compositions. Unfortunately, the spectral feature depths from the resulting transmission spectra and the peak flux and variations from our synthesized phase curves for TOI-700 d do not exceed 10 ppm. This will likely prohibit the James Webb Space Telescope from characterizing its atmosphere; however, this motivates the community to invest in future instrumentation that perhaps can one day reveal the true nature of TOI-700 d and to continue to search for similar planets around less distant stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large eddy simulation of lean blow-off in swirl-stabilized flame with the subgrid dissipation concept

The lean blow-off mechanism of the premixed swirl flame is numerically investigated by large eddy simulation (LES) with the subgrid dissipation concept (SDC) combustion model. Three simulated cases cover stable, near blow-off, and transient conditions. Compared with the experiment, the LES-SDC approach captures the flow and combustion features for stable and near blow-off conditions. More importantly, the predictions of the blowoff procedure and duration agree satisfactorily with the experiment, indicating that the LES-SDC approach is a promising tool for predicting strong, unsteady turbulent combustion processes. Further, the numerical results are used to investigate the blow-off mechanism. Two stages in the blow-off procedure are specified. The first is the necking and extinction of the downstream flame surface, and the second is the shrinking of the upstream flame surface. The blow-off mechanism is well explained by the theory of stretched flame extinction. At the end of the recirculation zone, the large negative radial velocity pushes the flame to the central line. The combustion process here can be abstracted as the stretched counter-flame of the reactant-reactant configuration. The excessive flame stretch dominates the flame extinction and triggers the blow-off event. The upstream flame resists the intense stretch with the help of hot product recirculation, and the combustion here can be idealized as the counter-flame of the reactant-product configuration. The alignment of the temperature gradient and flow velocity, together with the excessive stretch, clearly indicates the tendency of flame local extinction. A Damköhler number-based blow-off criterion is raised from the mean flow strain rate and laminar flame bulk extinction strain rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling inter‐reader variability in clinical target volume delineation for soft tissue sarcomas using diffusion model

Abstract Background Accurate delineation of the clinical target volume (CTV) is essential in the radiotherapy treatment of soft tissue sarcomas. However, this process is subject to inter‐reader variability due to the need for clinical assessment of risk and extent of potential microscopic spread. This can lead to inconsistencies in treatment planning, potentially impacting treatment outcomes. Most existing automatic CTV delineation methods do not account for this variability and can only generate a single CTV for each case. Purpose This study aims to develop a deep learning‐based technique to generate multiple CTV contours for each case, simulating the inter‐reader variability in the clinical practice. Methods We employed a publicly available dataset consisting of fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG‐PET), x‐ray computed tomography (CT), and pre‐contrast T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from 51 patients with soft tissue sarcoma, along with an independent validation set containing five additional patients. An experienced reader drew a contour of the gross tumor volume (GTV) for each patient based on multi‐modality images. Subsequently, two additional readers, together with the first one, were responsible for contouring three CTVs in total based on the GTV. We developed a diffusion model‐based deep learning method that is capable of generating arbitrary number of different and plausible CTVs to mimic the inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation. The proposed model incorporates a separate encoder to extract features from the GTV masks, leveraging the critical role of GTV information in accurate CTV delineation. Results The proposed diffusion model demonstrated superior performance with the highest Dice Index (0.902 compared to values below 0.881 for state‐of‐the‐art models) and the best generalized energy distance (GED) (0.209 compared to values exceeding 0.221 for state‐of‐the‐art models). It also achieved the second‐highest recall and precision metrics among the compared ambiguous image segmentation models. Results from both datasets exhibited consistent trends, reinforcing the reliability of our findings. Additionally, ablation studies exploring different model structures and input configurations highlighted the significance of incorporating prior GTV information for accurate CTV delineation. Conclusions The proposed diffusion model successfully generates multiple plausible CTV contours for soft tissue sarcomas, effectively capturing inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation.

Dong, Yafei [Yale Biomedical Imaging Institute Yal↗

DOE OSTI2020

Protection Scheme for Multiterminal HVDC System Based on Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima

Fault protection is a major issue in the development of multiterminal high‐voltage direct current (HVDC) system based on voltage‐source converter. Owing to the rapid increase in fault current under DC faults, protection requires a fast fault detection method to isolate the fault current. However, the selectivity and reliability of the fast protection scheme should be primarily guaranteed. Therefore, a new protection strategy based on modulus maximum under wavelet transform is proposed in this paper. Fault detection and discrimination are achieved using single‐end signals of fault current. The external and internal faults can be discriminated via local information. The reliability and robustness of the proposed scheme against potential factors are verified. Numerous simulation cases are performed in PSCAD/EMTDC under different fault scenarios, and signal data are analyzed in MATLAB to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed fault protection scheme. © 2020 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Huai, Qing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Considerations for testing full-scale wind turbine nacelles with hardware-in-the-loop

In this paper, pole placement control techniques are utilized to compensate for variations in the torsional dynamics resulting from the different boundary conditions experienced by a wind turbine nacelle when mounted on a test bench. Simulation case studies are used to understand the baseline torsional characteristics of the nacelle coupled to the test bench versus that coupled to the rotor. It was found that the frequency shifts by up to 200% and 400% for the first and second torsional modes, respectively. The feasibility of utilizing pole placement technique to match the torsional characteristics of the turbine on the test bench is investigated using PI and PID controllers. Here, the performance of the tuned controller is then verified under two test scenarios: Low Voltage Ride Through (LVRT), and a highly dynamic turbulent wind input. It is demonstrated that tuning the test bench speed controller can effectively shift the poles of the closed-loop system to match the desired first and second modes of the full turbine and replicate transient field events on the test bench.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Gas-Electric Energy System Decarbonization Planning

As energy utilities implement climate change mitigation policies, system planners require strategies for achieving affordable emissions reductions. Coordinated planning of electric power and natural gas systems will allow synergistic investments to address cross-sector operational constraints, competing uses for net-zero emissions fuels, and shifts in energy demands across energy carriers. In this study, we develop a novel optimization program that finds the cost-minimizing mix of infrastructure expansion or reduction across gas and electric systems to satisfy sector-specific emissions constraints. Alongside energy supply resources, our framework allows for central-planning of end-use equipment stocks to allow switching between gas and electric appliances upon failure or premature replacement. The proposed model is used to simulate case study scenarios for a benchmark 24-pipe gas network coupled to a 24-node power system test network. We find that electrification of greater than 80% of core gas demands is a component of the least-cost solution for modeled energy systems. Despite this substitution, the gas system is maintained to service difficult-to-electrify customers and to deliver net-zero emissions gas to electricity generators in times of peak electricity demand. Restricting electrification of gas appliances increases reliance on power- to-gas technologies and increases annual costs by 15% in 2040. Neglecting constraints on pipeline blending of hydrogen can produce a misleading result that relies on hydrogen blend fractions of greater than 50%. In all cases, we find the average costs of delivered gas increase nearly 5-fold across the decarbonization transition, highlighting the importance of future work investigating cost-allocation strategies for ensuring an equitable energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing the grid: Utilizing demand-side flexibility for carbon emission reduction through locational marginal emissions in distribution networks

Decarbonization of the electric grid has become an important world-wide priority and is actively happening in many ways by introducing innovations and new technologies from the generation sectors to the demand sectors. In particular, one promising pathway toward such net-zero carbon emissions is to utilize the demand-side flexibility with the increasing number of flexible loads in distribution networks. In this paper, we explore a load shifting strategy with the emerging concept of location marginal emissions (LMEs) to reduce carbon emissions. LMEs measure the impact of carbon emissions including the locational aspect in more granular way and thus provide a novel mechanism for the system operator and load aggregators to design the LME-based load shifting strategy, which can efficiently guide consumers and thus adjust their consumption behaviors. Simulation case studies on the IEEE test networks are performed to validate the capability of the proposed load shifting method to reduce carbon emissions. We also compare this with other relevant strategies to discuss multiple scenarios and corresponding results. Finally, while each provides a different level of flexibility, all the explored strategies tested have led to solutions that have lower carbon emissions, indicating the great potential of demand-side flexibility in reducing carbon emissions for future distribution networks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coal-derived conductive pavement for winter de-icing: prototype, modeling, and simulation

Existing pavement de-icing methods result in high installation and maintenance costs, traffic delays, excessive weariness and corrosion, and negative environmental and safety impacts. To overcome these challenges, this paper presents an innovative pathway to designing and constructing smart self-heating pavements using a low-cost coal-char bearing asphalt material. The conductive asphalt incorporates coal char, i.e., a key byproduct of the coal pyrolysis process, into the Stone Mastic Asphalt (SMA) mixture. This asphalt containing coal-derived solid carbon exhibits highly tailorable electrical conductivity, satisfactory mechanical and thermophysical properties, and superior cost-efficiency as compared to other conductive pavement materials. The de-icing performance was also demonstrated by laboratory experiments on a bench-scale prototype. Furthermore, an efficient thermal network model was developed and validated by experiments to investigate the transient thermal behavior and energy performance of the Ohmic heating pavement system. Furthermore, the whole-year energy simulation case studies were conducted on a bridge pavement with an annual energy use of 24.6–1444.8 kWh/m 2 , showcasing its potential in field applications across cool humid, cold humid, and subarctic/arctic climate zones.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A hierarchical framework for aggregating grid-interactive buildings with thermal and battery energy storage

The behind-the-meter (BTM) thermal and battery energy storage can help improve energy efficiency, reduce energy costs, and enhance energy resilience, particularly in rural areas and for disadvantaged communities. Aggregating numerous BTM energy storage systems can act as a price influencer with a significant source of load shifting and peak demand reduction. An integrated and scalable control mechanism is required to effectively utilize energy storage systems and flexible building loads to maximize the economic benefits, considering various distribution system constraints. Here, this paper presents an innovative hierarchical coordination framework for energy storage and flexible load in buildings, considering various factors such as electricity prices, thermal comfort, and distribution system modeling and constraints. At the upper level, a distribution system operator optimizes the power flow to minimize its power procurement costs from the electricity wholesale market, while at the lower level, aggregators determine the optimal dispatch of battery and thermal energy storage systems in multiple buildings on behalf of end-users to minimize operating costs according to the power prices. These problems are solved using a game-theoretic approach through negotiations between the distribution system operator and aggregators as a bi-level decision model. Simulation case studies have been performed for a test distribution network with a number of building end-users using energy storage systems to quantify the performance of aggregators. The results demonstrate that the proposed strategy can reduce peak load for a reliable electricity distribution network while saving electricity bills for customers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Theory of nuclear fission

Atomic nuclei are quantum many-body systems of protons and neutrons held together by strong nuclear forces. Under the proper conditions, nuclei can break into two (sometimes three) fragments which will subsequently decay by emitting particles. This phenomenon is called nuclear fission. Since different fission events may produce different fragmentations, the end-products of all fissions that occurred in a small chemical sample of matter comprise hundreds of different isotopes, including α particles, together with a large number of emitted neutrons, photons, electrons and antineutrinos. The extraordinary complexity of this process, which happens at length scales of the order of a femtometer, mostly takes less than a femtosecond but is not entirely over until all the lingering β decays have completed – which can take years – is a fascinating window into the physics of atomic nuclei. While fission may be more naturally known in the context of its technological applications, it also plays a crucial role in the synthesis of heavy elements in astrophysical environments. In both cases, simulations are needed for the many systems or energies inaccessible to experiments in the laboratory. In this context, the level of accuracy and precision required poses formidable challenges to nuclear theory. Overall, the goal of this article is to provide a comprehensive overview of the theoretical methods employed in the description of nuclear fission.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validating simulated mountain wave impacts on hub-height wind speed using SoDAR observations

The ascent of stably stratified air over a mountain barrier can trigger the generation of mountain waves. Mountain waves occur frequently over the Columbia River Gorge in western North America and can impact wind power generation over the area. Therefore, predicting the details of mountain waves events (e.g., dominant wavelength, timing, and duration) can be very valuable for the wind energy community. In this study, the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate mountain waves and their impact on hub-height wind speed is investigated. Our results suggest that the WRF model has moderate skill in simulating observed mountain wave. Further, given WRF predictions of wavelength range and wave period, the Fast Fourier Transform can calculate the simulated mountain wave impact on hub-height wind speed. The resulting wind speeds agree well with SoDAR observations in terms of both magnitude and pattern. Finally, for the simulated cases, WRF consistently predicts impacts of significant mountain wave events about an hour earlier than the actual observations. Overall, in this work, the sensitivities as well as uncertainties associated with our methodology are discussed in detail.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of anisotropic shale creep on the stress and permeability evolution of a geological nuclear waste repository

To ensure long-term safety and performance, geological nuclear waste repositories require low-permeability barriers such as bentonite buffers and/or shale host rock. Shale is not only known for its low permeability but also for its trend to undergo time-dependent deformation (i.e., creep), which could heal damage, but the effects of shale creep on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories have not been clearly understood. In particular, the anisotropic nature of shale (i.e., bedding) could have a significant effect on its creep behavior, and consequently, on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories. In this research, numerical simulations were carried out with the objective of showing the effects of anisotropic shale creep on the stress and permeability evolution of a generic geological nuclear waste repository in shale. The TOUGH-FLAC simulator, a thermo-hydromechanically (THM) coupled numerical code, was used for the simulations. To achieve the objective, comparisons were performed between the results of anisotropic shale creep simulations and those of different simulation cases, namely, no creep (i.e., elastic), isotropic creep, and long-term creep shale cases. Results of the comparisons show that the elastic and isotropic creep shale cases respectively led to the overestimation and underestimation of stress and permeability in the repository, whereas the long-term creep shale case, which accumulated greater creep in later periods than in earlier periods, helped to keep large shear and tensile stresses from developing while maintaining compressive spherical stress, resulting in consistently low permeability levels. These results indicate that performance assessments with elastic and isotropic creep formation models will provide the upper and lower bound estimates of stress and permeability, while more reasonable estimates will be given by an anisotropic creep formation model, and that shale with long-term creep characteristics will be beneficial in many aspects of the safety and performance of nuclear waste repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduced Order Modeling conditioned on monitored features for response and error bounds estimation in engineered systems

Reduced Order Models (ROMs) form essential tools across engineering domains by virtue of their function as surrogates for computationally intensive digital twinning simulators. Although purely data-driven methods are available for ROM construction, schemes that allow to retain a portion of the physics tend to enhance the interpretability and generalization of ROMs. However, physics-based techniques can adversely scale when dealing with nonlinear systems that feature parametric dependencies. This study introduces a generative physics-based ROM that is suited for nonlinear systems with parametric dependencies and is additionally able to provide numerical error bounds associated with the respective estimates. A main contribution of this work is the conditioning of these parametric ROMs to features that can be derived from monitoring measurements, feasibly in an online fashion. This is contrary to most existing ROM schemes, which remain restricted to the prescription of the physics-based, and usually a priori unknown, system parameters. Our work utilizes conditional Variational Autoencoders to continuously map the required reduction bases to a feature vector extracted from limited output measurements, while additionally allowing for a probabilistic assessment of the ROM-estimated Quantities of Interest. An auxiliary task using a neural network-based parametrization of suitable probability distributions is introduced to re-establish the link with physical model parameters. We verify the proposed scheme on a series of simulated case studies incorporating effects of geometric and material nonlinearity under parametric dependencies related to system properties and input load characteristics.

Conditional VAEs↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Warm Rain With an Eddy Diffusivity/Mass Flux Parameterization: 2. Sensitivities and Comparison to Observations

Abstract This is the second part of the description and validation of the coupling of a warm‐rain microphysics scheme to a stochastic multi‐plume eddy‐diffusivity/mass‐flux parameterization. Part 1 provides the model description and initial validation of the parameterization in a single column model (SCM) against large eddy simulations. This manuscript provides additional comparisons against satellite observations of 500 unique simulation cases, an analysis of model parameter‐based sensitivities in those 500 cases, and an evaluation of the idealized LES case study paradigm for parameterization development. The SCM is forced by a weather reanalysis in the subtropical northeast Pacific region characterized by the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus cloud transition. 18 scalar outputs are examined to identify the sensitivities to 22 of the model's parameters. The model is highly sensitive to parameters that determine the behavior of convective plumes, which collectively lead to the most sensitivity in 13 of the 18 outputs. Only a few parameters contribute sensitivities that are not highly correlated with those of other parameters. While forcing the model with two canonical field campaign cases results in similar picture of which parameters lead to high sensitivity in model outputs, the sensitivity magnitudes can be overestimated compared to when the model is forced by weather reanalyzes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗