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At least 127 records · Page 7

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DOE OSTI2025

Development and application of two-step uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methodology for fast reactor safety analysis

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear reactors for transients is directly linked with safety assessment through the cross-sections uncertainties, provided as a covariance matrix, which are propagated through the reactor system to output of interest pertaining to reactor safety, such as peak temperatures in fuel/clad/coolant. Using a two-step approach, uncertainties are first quantified and propagated from basic input variables (such as reaction cross-sections) to intermediate quantities (such as reactivity feedback coefficients) through lattice level calculations. Uncertainties of intermediate quantities (from the first step) are then propagated through the system transient calculations, in the second step, to obtain uncertainties on reactor safety output parameters of interest. The scope of this work consists of Uncertainty Quantification & Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties that are highly correlated through unprotected transient overpower and unprotected loss of flow to assess their impact on core safety parameters. This two-step approach in the presence of covariance renders the sensitivity analysis very challenging. In fact, usually the sensitivity analysis is restricted to each step, which limits its application since the sensitivities between the system output quantities and the basic input variables are difficult to obtain. Here, in this work, we address this issue by proposing a simple, general methodology to combine the sensitivity indices obtained in each step by assuming the model behavior being linear. For the first step Generalized Perturbation theory based indices are used while in the second step the recently studied Johnson indices. The uncertainty quantification and sensitivity methodologies discussed here are demonstrated on a generic LFR design which is based on the 500 MWth demonstration Lead-cooled fast reactor (DLFR) using oxide fuel, developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC).

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Structural Uncertainty in the Sensitivity of Urban Temperatures to Anthropogenic Heat Flux

One key source of uncertainty for weather and climate models is structural uncertainty arising from the fact that these models must simplify or approximate complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur in the real world. However, structural uncertainty is rarely examined in the context of simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux in cities. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model, it is found that the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature to anthropogenic heat flux can differ by an order of magnitude depending on how anthropogenic heat flux is released to the urban environment. Moreover, varying model structures through changing the treatment of roof-air interaction and the parameterization of convective heat transfer between the canopy air and the atmosphere can affect the sensitivity of urban canopy air temperature by a factor of 4. Urban surface temperature and 2-m air temperature are less sensitive to the methods of anthropogenic heat flux release and the examined model structural variants than urban canopy air temperature, but their sensitivities to anthropogenic heat flux can still vary by as much as a factor of 4 for surface temperature and 2 for 2-m air temperature. Our study recommends using temperature sensitivity instead of temperature response to understand how various physical processes (and their representations in numerical models) modulate the simulated effects of anthropogenic heat flux.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fixed Source Sensitivity Calculations for Inertial Confinement Fusion Applications

A numerical code library was developed for the radiation transport code MCNP6.3 to calculate generalized response sensitivity coefficients for fixed source neutron transport problems with applications to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. The new MCNP6.3 dependency is used to generate a novel time convolution response that represents a neutron time-of-flight (nToF) signal. The traditional suite of macroscopic cross-section sensitivities and constrained fixed source probability distribution sensitivities are available for both the standard and the new response tallies in this library. However, novel sensitivity coefficients for the constrained hyperparameters of analytic fixed source probability distributions are emphasized in this work for their connection to ICF neutron transport models. Particularly, advanced Monte Carlo methods are developed for calculating the sensitivity of a nToF signal to perturbations in an ICF plasma’s ion temperature and burn history as well as perturbations in the target liner mass density and the shape parameters of the nToF detector’s impulse response function. Together, these capabilities form an advanced suite of computational tools that can be used to analyze and extract information from any ICF experimental platform.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing convergence in global sensitivity analysis: a review of methods for assessing and monitoring convergence

In global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a model, a proper convergence analysis of metrics is essential for ensuring a level of confidence or trustworthiness in sensitivity results obtained, yet is somewhat deficient in practice. The level of confidence in sensitivity measures, particularly in relation to their influence and support for decisions from scientific, social and policy perspectives, is heavily reliant on the convergence of GSA. We review the literature and summarize the available methods for monitoring and assessing convergence of sensitivity measures based on application purposes. The aim is to expose the various choices for convergence assessment and encourage further testing of available methods to clarify their level of robustness. Furthermore, the review identifies a pressing need for comparative studies on convergence assessment methods to establish a clear hierarchy of effectiveness and encourages the adoption of systematic approaches for enhanced robustness in sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Control Parameter Sensitivity Study for Inverter-Based-Resource Dominated Grids: A Small Signal Stability Approach and Framework

The growing adoption of renewable energy is driving the prevalence of inverter-based resources (IBRs) within power grids. Future power grids will integrate both grid-following IBRs (GFM-IBRs) and grid-forming IBRs (GFL-IBRs) alongside synchronous generators. Therefore, it is crucial to perform stability studies that account for all components and especially control interactions related to IBRs. Extensive research has performed to study the IBR-related stability, however, the sensitivity study of IBRs' control parameters on system stability has not been adequately studied yet, especially from a systematic way. Therefore, this paper conducts a small signal stability analysis for a generic grid with multiple types of resources and develops an analytical framework for assessing the sensitivity of control parameters affecting stability margins. To achieve that, the non-autonomous reduced-order non-linear dynamic model is developed for a generic power system with multiple synchronous generator-based resources (SGBRs), GFM-IBRs, and GFL-IBRs. Based on the analytic model, a systematic framework for parametric sensitivity on systems' asymptotic stability is developed. A parameter sensitivity analysis based on eigenvalue methods is proposed. The impact of the droop controllers of GFM-IBRs, PQ-dispatch and the PLL controller of GFL-IBR on the system asymptotic stability is discussed. This sensitivity study is aiming to provide deep insights on control parameters' impact on system stability, and gives direction for parameter tuning in case of instability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2013

Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied Taxa

Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

first flowering date↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Self-Sensitized Photochemical CO 2 Reduction Using [Re(bpy 2+ )(CO) 3 (I)] 2+ and [Re(bpy 2+ )(CO) 3 (CH 3 CN)] 3+ Photocatalysts with Pendent Ammonium Cations

Rhenium(I) tricarbonyl complexes fac-[Re(bpy)(CO) 3 (L)]n + are the classical examples of self-sensitized photocatalysts capable of the dual roles of light absorption and catalysis. Here, in this work, a series of dicationic halido or tricationic solvento complexes fac-[Re(bpy 2+ )(CO) 3 X] n+ (PF 6 ) n (where X = Cl - or I - (n = 2), or CH 3 CN (n = 3) and bpy 2+ is bipyridine modified by two -CH 2 -(NMe3) + tetra-alkylammonium cations) have been investigated as self-sensitized and sensitized CO 2 reduction photocatalysts. Four structural isomers differing in the cation position have been tested in N,Nʹ-dimethylacetamide solvent (DMA) using 1,3-dimethyl-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-benzimidazole (BIH) as the electron donor, and the position of the cationic pendants has a significant impact on the catalyst turnover number and quantum efficiency (ϕ). Up to 455 self-sensitized turnovers of CO and a high photon efficiency (ϕ CO ) of 22% have been achieved. Time-resolved infrared spectroscopy and theoretical calculations were used to characterize the catalytic cycle including the ligand exchange between one-electron reduced (OER) halido and solvento species as well as the binding of CO 2 to the putative two-electron reduced (TER) species. The CO 2 -reactive TER catalyst was formed by disproportionation or intramolecular electron transfer between two forms of the OER catalyst as indicated by the formation of the fully oxidized catalyst concurrent with CO 2 binding. When [Ru(bpy) 3 ] 2+ was used as a sensitizer, catalyst durability improved, and the selectivity toward formate increased as high as 3.3:1 over CO (total TON = 1370) due to acidification of the reaction, which promotes formation of the hydride intermediate, as BIH was consumed and deprotonated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

In Situ Velocity‐Strain Sensitivity Near the San Jacinto Fault Zone Analyzed Through Train Tremors

Abstract We utilize train tremors as P‐wave seismic sources to investigate velocity‐strain sensitivity near the San Jacinto Fault Zone. A dense nodal array deployed at the Piñon Flat Observatory is used to detect and identify repeating train energy emitted from a railway in the Coachella valley. We construct P‐wave correlation functions across the fault zone and estimate the spatially averaged dt / t versus strain sensitivity to be 6.25 × 10 4 . Through numerical simulations, we explore how the sensitivity decays exponentially with depth. The optimal solution reveals a subsurface sensitivity of 1.2 × 10 5 and a depth decay rate of 0.05 km −1 . This sensitivity aligns with previous findings but is toward the higher end, likely due to the fractured fault‐zone rocks. The depth decay rate, previously unreported, is notably smaller than assumed in empirical models. This raises the necessity of further investigations of this parameter, which is crucial to study stress and velocity variations at seismogenic depth.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adapting CLUTCH methodology to multigroup TSUNAMI-3D for eigenvalue sensitivity calculations

The sensitivity of the eigenvalue to uncertainties in nuclear data and its evaluation are important for nuclear criticality safety. TSUNAMI-3D sequences within the SCALE code system offer several options to the user community for calculating eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients with multigroup (MG) and continuous energy (CE) 3D transport capabilities. TSUNAMI-3D sequences implement the adjoint-based perturbation theory with MG KENO code, the Contributon Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Track length importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method with CE KENO code, and the Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method with CE KENO and Shift codes. Each method has benefits and limitations depending on the problem that is run. The work presented here aims to adapt the CLUTCH method, which enables the Contributon method's mesh-free, memory-efficient approach for calculating adjoint-weighted tallies for sensitivity calculations, to the MG TSUNAMI-3D sequence. This application would eliminate the explicit adjoint KENO calculation, as well as the memory-consuming mesh flux moment tallies required by the conventional MG TSUNAMI-3D. Smaller memory footprints in the CLUTCH methodology and relatively shorter runtimes in MG KENO transport can make MG TSUNAMI-3D a viable method for some complex problems. Moreover, this adaptation allows MG sensitivity calculations with Shift, ORNL's next-generation high-performance Monte Carlo transport code, which currently does not offer any sensitivity capabilities with MG particle transport simulations. Initial implementation of the new MG TSUNAMI-3D sequence and its preliminary results with a selected critical benchmark experiment in the Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID) are presented in this study.

KENO↗

DOE OSTI2024

PDV Sensitivity [Slides]

The concept of PDV sensitive is not new. But we tend not to discuss sensitivity in a rigorous, quantified way. That should change. Indeed there is a natural definition, which is just the energy of light from the target within the analysis window that gives a SNR of 10 in the frequency domain. Systems designers, diagnostic engineers, and operators should use the language of sensitivity: (1) Absolute sensitivity: nW * ns; (2) Launch power: mW or dBm; (3) Relative surface return: dB; (4) Relative sensitivity: dB * ns. This will help us design better systems, choose the correct system for the job, maintain our systems, and tune our systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1972

Impact sensitivity of materials in contact with liquid and gaseous oxygen at high pressure

As a result of the Apollo 13 incident, increased emphasis is being placed on materials compatibility in a high pressure GOX environment. It is known that in addition to impact sensitivity of materials, approximately adiabatic compression conditions can contrive to induce materials reactivity. Test runs at high pressure using the ABMA tester indicate the following: (1) The materials used in the tests showed an inverse relationship between thickness and impact sensitivity. (2) Several materials tested exhibited greater impact sensitivity in GOX than in LOX. (3) The impact sensitivity of the materials tested in GOX, at the pressures tested, showed enhanced impact sensitivity with higher pressure. (4) The rank ordering of the materials tested in LOX up to 1000 psia is the same as the rank ordering resulting from tests in LOX at 14.7 psia.

Schwinghamer, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Sensitivity and comparison evaluation of Saturn 5 liquid penetrants

Results of a sensitivity and comparison evaluation performed on six liquid penetrants that were used on the Saturn 5 vehicle and other space hardware to detect surface discontinuities are described. The relationship between penetrant materials and crack definition capabilities, the optimum penetrant materials evaluation method, and the optimum measurement methods for crack dimensions were investigated. A unique method of precise developer thickness control was envolved, utilizing clear radiographic film and a densitometer. The method of evaluation included five aluminum alloy, 2219-T87, specimens that were heated and then quenched in cold water to produce cracks. The six penetrants were then applied, one at a time, and the crack indications were counted and recorded for each penetrant for comparison purposes. Measurements were made by determining the visual crack indications per linear inch and then sectioning the specimens for a metallographic count of the cracks present. This method provided a numerical approach for assigning a sensitivity index number to the penetrants. Of the six penetrants evaluated, two were not satisfactory (one was not sufficiently sensitive and the other was to sensitive, giving false indications). The other four were satisfactory with approximately the same sensitivity in the range of 78 to 80.5 percent of total cracks detected.

Jones, G. H.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Optimum sensitivity derivatives of objective functions in nonlinear programming

The feasibility of eliminating second derivatives from the input of optimum sensitivity analyses of optimization problems is demonstrated. This elimination restricts the sensitivity analysis to the first-order sensitivity derivatives of the objective function. It is also shown that when a complete first-order sensitivity analysis is performed, second-order sensitivity derivatives of the objective function are available at little additional cost. An expression is derived whose application to linear programming is presented.

Barthelemy, J.-F. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Effect of confinement in small space flight size cages on insulin sensitivity of exercise-trained rats

The effect of confinement in small cages (simulating the size to be used in future space Shuttle missions) on insulin sensitivity was studied in rats having an increased insulin sensitivity due to exercise training prior to confinement. Oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTT) were given to both control and exercise-trained rats before and after placement in the small cages for 7 days. The insulin resistance was assessed by the product of the area of the insulin and glucose curves of the OGTT (IG index). Results show that the values obtained before confinement were one-half as high in exercise-trained rats as those in control rats, reflecting an increased sensitivity to insulin with exercise training. After 7 days confinement, the IG index was found to be not significantly different from initial values for both control and exercise-trained rats. These findings suggest that increased insulin sensitivity in exercise-trained rats persists 7 days after cessation of running activity. The data also indicate that exercise training, before flight, may be beneficial in minimizing the loss of insulin sensitivity expected with decreased use of gravity dependent muscles during exposure to hypogravity in space flight.

Mondon, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation using an efficient method for approximating sensitivities

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed primarily for multivariable dynamic systems. The algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). The method determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort compared with integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations or using a finite-difference method. Different surface-fitting methods are discussed and demonstrated. Aircraft estimation problems are solved by using both simulated and real-flight data to compare MNRES with commonly used methods; in these solutions MNRES is found to be equally accurate and substantially faster. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations, thus producing a more generally applicable algorithm.

Murphy, P. C.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Parameter sensitivity in the dynamics of rotor-bearing systems

When designing a rotor system it is frequently desirable to have at hand a set of design sensitivity coefficients which quantitatively predict a change in specific system characteristics to changes in design parameters. This paper presents eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients for the damped natural frequencies of whirl of general linear rotor system modelled by finite element discretization. In addition, a simple and direct method for calculation of the damped critical speeds is presented, which utilizes the eigenvalue sensitivity with respect to the spin speed. It is shown that the combination of design parameter and spin speed whirl frequency sensitivity coefficients may be used to also evaluate the damped critical speed sensitivity coefficients.

Rajan, M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Nonlinear sensitivity coefficients and corrections in system identification

The evaluation of sensitivity coefficients which are the changes in the eigencharacteristics with respect to changes in the structural parameters is important in the identification of structural systems. In such studies the commonly used linearized sensitivity coefficients for system identification have occasionally resulted in poor convergence or even divergence during the iteration process to update analytical models for better correlation with the test data. Nonlinear sensitivity coefficients and nonlinear correction terms, usually eliminated during the linearization process, have been developed to evaluate sensitivity coefficients of linear systems. Application to computer simulated example problems indicates a more rapid and stable convergence of the iteration processes to update the analytical model for the improvement of the correlation with test data. The successful application of combining the nonlinear sensitivity coefficients and nonlinear correction terms with the Multiple Boundary Condition Tests enhances the ability to validate large space structures by ground tests.

Kuo, C. P.↗