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At least 127 records · Page 7

Collaborative Distribution System Restoration Planning and Real-Time Dispatch Considering Behind-the-Meter DERs

Modern distribution systems are becoming more resilient against power outages thanks to the flexible generation capacity provided by the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Compared to utility-scale DERs, which can be directly controlled by system operators, small-scale, behind-the-meter DERs are much more difficult to coordinate despite being the vast majority. Two major obstacles to the implementation of DERs for service restoration are the coordination of behind-the-meter DERs and the management of uncertainty. In this paper, a novel distribution system restoration strategy is proposed to overcome these two obstacles. The flexibility of be-hind-the-meter DERs is quantified and integrated into the restoration planning models within a hierarchical structure. The model predictive control technique is employed to enable adaptive restoration planning solution adjustments to accommodate fault scenarios and forecast errors. Besides, real-time power dispatch models are proposed to maintain power balance using available DER capability. Comprehensive integration of adaptive restoration planning schemes and real-time dispatch results are achieved through a collaborative restoration framework. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed restoration strategy is verified through a modified IEEE 123-bus system and a real-world utility system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX-U using neural networks

A new model for prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX and NSTX-U has been developed using neural networks. The model has been trained and tested on measured profiles from experimental discharges during the first operational campaign of NSTX-U. By projecting profiles onto empirically derived basis functions, the model is able to efficiently and accurately reproduce profile shapes. In order to project the performance of the model to upcoming NSTX-U operations, a large database of profiles from the operation of NSTX is used to test performance as a function of available data. The rapid execution time of the model is well suited to the planned applications, including optimization during scenario development activities, and real-time plasma control. Finally, a potential application of the model to real-time profile estimation is demonstrated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX-U using neural networks

A new model for prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX and NSTX-U has been developed using neural networks. The model has been trained and tested on measured profiles from experimental discharges during the first operational campaign of NSTX-U. By projecting profiles onto empirically derived basis functions, the model is able to efficiently and accurately reproduce profile shapes. In order to project the performance of the model to upcoming NSTX-U operations, a large database of profiles from the operation of NSTX is used to test performance as a function of available data. The rapid execution time of the model is well suited to the planned applications, including optimization during scenario development activities, and real-time plasma control. A potential application of the model to real-time profile estimation is demonstrated.

Boyer, Mark↗

Electric Vehicle Charging Demand in the Chicago Metropolitan Area through 2030

This report outlines the collaborative efforts between Argonne National Laboratory and Exelon in advancing the Agent-Based Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM). Aligning with ComEd’s beneficial electrification plan, this study developed eight scenarios to access the temporal and spatial distribution of charging load and demand stemming from the widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEV) adoption, augmented public charging infrastructure deployment, and increased multi-unit dwelling (MUD) charging availability. Enhancements to the ATEAM model encompassed the simulation of multiple days of travel behavior, estimation of total public charging infrastructure needs, user interface refinements, and output tracking at both vehicle and charging station levels. The total electricity consumption for residential and public charging to support over 800,000 BEVs in Chicago in 2029 is projected at approximately 10.2 GWh. Enhanced MUD home charging accessibility (70%) amplifies the home charging load in the study area by 1.5% compared to the baseline scenario (10%). The widespread adoption of BEVs reduces peak charging loads, owing to their inclusion across households with diverse income levels, thus fostering a more dispersed charging activity pattern. However, widespread BEV adoption increases the peak home charging load in areas with lower median household incomes, reflecting a higher BEV concentration in these locales and, subsequently, heightened peak charging demands. In the Widespread BEV adoption scenario, fewer census tracts exhibit elevated peak loads for combined home and public charging, indicating a more even distribution of charging demand across the study area. Predominantly, peak loads for combined charging—both home and public— occur between 2 p.m. and 10 p.m. across all scenarios, encompassing the majority of census tracts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Potential of Data Center Controls in Grid Services

The rapid proliferation of large data centers brings both challenges and opportunities for grid reliability. The data center resources and their potential flexibility have the potential to contribute resources to grid operations. Through capabilities like energy shifting and resource coordination, data centers can help reduce their net demand on the transmission network, as well as provide additional grid services to support reliable operation on the grid. While transient and long-term grid planning and operations are the scenarios that draw most attention, the quasi-steady state timeseries (QSTS) operation of data centers and grid bring interesting scenarios that can help evaluate the data center controls to aid grid services. This work is focused on modeling data centers for QSTS applications – incorporating the AI data center load profiles and building on the PNNL digital twin model for the thermal management loads to enable simulation studies to reveal the impact of data center controls on grid performance. This includes the integration of a QSTS battery and natural gas generator model to incorporate local resource impacts to the system. The simulation study is performed with a modified IEEE 24-Bus transmission system. Scenarios are focused on evaluating the data center load impacts on the transmission system and leveraging both data center and local generation controls to mitigate those impacts and provide additional grid services. The data center controls revealed the ability to contribute to two main kinds of grid services: preventing congestion on a weak grid by coordinating the data center resources with the collocated BESS and onsite generation; and the ability to help the grid operations during stressed times of operation like during a contingency. Leveraging these and other capabilities has the potential to help data centers become grid responsive assets, aiding in both their integration into the power system and grid reliability.

power grid simulation↗

Correlation Between Weather Alerts and Grid Component Failures for Grid Alert

Weather events cause most grid failures. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Recent research at Idaho National Laboratory into electric grid risk analysis methods resulted in a tool that allows for the development of the most likely scenarios given failure probabilities of grid components. INL has a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER) program to develop a Grid Alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios uses MASTERRI and then notifies the utility if there is significant risk. Historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid have been compiled by utilities and organizations such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates are needed for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures are correlated with historic weather events from Integrated Public Alert & Warning System (IPAWS). These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. This discusses the Grid Alert project plan but focuses on the data gathered and process used in determining failure rates for possible grid failure scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Pit Production Strategic Analysis Tool

The LANL Pit Production Strategic Analysis tool is an executive-level decision support tool for planning related to the demand and production of pits. The spreadsheet-based tool includes decision factors for stockpile program demand combined with production and infrastructure planning at PF-4, Savanna River, and future production options. The tool graphically compares supply and demand under different scenarios. The tool is based on NNSA planning documents and process analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impact of suprathermal ions on neutron yield in the pre-DT phase of ITER operation

An assessment of neutron production during the pre-fusion power-operation (PFPO) phase has been carried out for a representative set of plasma scenarios predicted by the ITER Research Plan. A range of heating systems, namely neutral beam injection (NBI) (hydrogen), electron cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH), and ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) are planned to be used for PFPO studies in helium, hydrogen, and mixed hydrogen–helium plasmas. Fast ions (protons and 3He) originating from NBI and ICRH systems can increase neutron production in PFPO plasmas by directly interacting with intrinsic Be impurities or through secondary processes, as also evidenced at JET. The generation of fast ions in ITER PFPO scenarios has been modelled using the ASTRA-NBI and TORIC-SSFPQL codes. A significant impact of the synergy between hydrogen NBI and hydrogen-minority ICRH on neutron production in helium plasmas is reported. In addition, the stability of the toroidicity-induced Alfvén eigenmodes (TAE) is analyzed for PFPO plasmas with a high pressure of suprathermal ions and a weak reversed shear. The possible impact of sawtooth oscillations and TAEs on neutron production is discussed, based on a linear stability analysis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition

To help mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) generation from burning fossil fuels, many state and local governments are requiring utilities to dramatically increase the share of electricity generated from renewable sources. The City of Los Angeles has set a target of 100% renewable energy by 2045 and has formulated a plan that considers nine potential alternative scenarios that differ by technology, location, and timing. Each scenario has a unique set of local investments, operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and concomitant rate structures. In this study we develop and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model built specifically for LA to estimate and compare the economic impacts for each of the scenarios over time relative to a reference case. We find differences in economic impacts across scenarios, depending on the level and timing of investment and O&M expenditures, as well as differences in the relative rate changes across scenarios. Results show that employment and economic output are positively correlated with greater capital and O&M spending, while higher electricity rates can dampen economic activity. Several scenarios generate positive economic impacts relative to the reference case, showing that the transition need not have harmful economic impacts, and all scenarios generate a number of other positive co-benefits, such as reduced damage to health from the reduction of ordinary air pollutants. The net employment impacts from 2026 to 2045 across the scenarios range from a low of 3,600 job-year losses annually to 4,700 job-year gains, both around only 0.1% of the baseline average annual employment in the city over that period. The analysis also indicates that lower-income households are relatively more affected than others by the scenarios. Overall, even in the most negatively impactful case, the economic output and employment effects are quite small when taken in the context of the overall size of the regional economy and the large reduction in GHGs.

economic impact modeling↗

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control

Transportation electrification is forecast to bring millions of new electric vehicles to roads worldwide this decade. Planning to support those vehicles depends on detailed scenarios of their electricity demand in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. In this work, we present a novel modeling approach to enable rapid generation of demand estimates that represent the impact of controlled charging for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. To model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles, we propose a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control under a range of electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5%–4.5%) while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. To generate the uncontrolled charging demand for scenarios with residential, workplace, and public charging we use statistical representations of a large data set of real charging sessions. We demonstrate the methodology by generating diverse sets of scenarios for California's charging demand in 2030 which consider multiple charging segments and controls, each run locally in under 50 s. We further demonstrate support for rate design by modeling the large-scale impact of a new, custom rate schedule for workplace charging.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Scenarios for Future Energy Systems

Energy systems in the U.S. and globally have continuously changed and expanded over the past 200 years, from animal and biomass based energy to electricity and petroleum for heat, light, transportation, and industries of all kinds. The most recent two decades have experienced a significant increase in the use of natural gas, solar, and wind energy, as well as energy efficiency, due to both technology breakthroughs and public policy. With history as a guide, we can expect on-going transformation of our energy system in future decades, including increased electrification and advanced energy technologies, ideally helping meet societal goals of reducing pollution, improving quality of human life, and preserving ecosystems. Scenario modeling is an important tool for planning energy system transformations toward specific goals - such as net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, 100% renewable energy, or energy security - particularly when there are multiple options, conflicting objectives, and significant unknowns about a path forward. This presentation will review the history of energy transitions and the future policy and societal objectives on energy. Then it will summarize multiple scenario studies of future energy systems, with a focus on "100% studies" and the challenges to meeting those objectives. It will also outline of a few of the technologies being researched now that could advance the ongoing energy transition.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY,↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗

Carbon neutrality in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur: Insights from stakeholder-driven integrated assessment modeling

Several cities in Malaysia have established plans to reduce their CO2 emissions, in addition to Malaysia submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce its carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 compared to 2005. Meeting these emissions reduction goals will require a joint effort between governments, industries, and corporations at different scales and across sectors. In collaboration with national and sub-national stakeholders, we developed and used a global integrated assessment model to explore emissions mitigation pathways in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur. Guided by current climate action plans, we created a suite of scenarios to reflect uncertainties in policy ambition, level of adoption, and implementation for reaching carbon neutrality. Through iterative engagement with all parties, we refined the scenarios and focus of the analysis to best meet the stakeholders’ needs. We found that Malaysia can reduce its carbon intensity and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and that action in Kuala Lumpur can play a significant role. Decarbonization of the power sector paired with extensive electrification, energy efficiency improvements in buildings, transportation, and industry, and the use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage will be major drivers to mitigate emissions, with carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions. This study highlights the participatory process in which stakeholders contributed to the development of the model and guided the analysis, as well as insights into Malaysia’s decarbonization potential and the role of multilevel governance.

cities↗

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind: Project Synthesis

The population of North Atlantic right whales is critically endangered and their habitat overlaps with offshore windfarm leases. It is therefore imperative that effective mitigation strategies be used to avoid impacts on right whales during the construction of offshore windfarms. The Department of Energy issued FOA Number DE-FOA-0001924 to encourage the development of technology that could monitor large exclusion zones for right whales in order to mitigate potential impact of construction noise on right whales. This report summarizes the past two years of the development and evaluation of the Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind (CABOW) project which aimed to develop technology to monitor large exclusion zones for North Atlantic right whales. Over the course of the project SMRU Consulting have implemented a rigorous design process including comparison of different approaches (e.g., single sensor vs multiple sensors), as well as consideration of placement and timing of acoustic monitoring. We have evaluated critical components of the CABOW system including, reliability, detection range, and bearing accuracy in areas adjacent to offshore windfarm leases in Maryland by conducting 3,536 playbacks of simulated right whale upcalls. The maximum call detection range was 7.5 km when noise was 99 dB re 1µPa rms (50-225 Hz), but this reduced to < 1 km when ambient noise levels were high. Our detection probability in the field was measured as a function of range as well as the source-to-noise level ratio allowing us to build a model to predict the probability of detection under various scenarios (sample size: 3,536 calls x 5 buoys = 17,680). The median bearing error was -0.25° but this is likely an underestimate of error due to experimental design. Using the published recall and precision of the two detectors we implemented in the CABOW system, we estimate that at a recall of 80%, our precision was > 80%, within the range of what we were aiming for in this project. To estimate our exclusion zone false negative and false positive rates, we built a simulation model using the empirical data from our field trial. We modelled three to nine CABOW units placed on the 10 km exclusion zone and estimated our false negative rate to be 1% or less (which was our project goal) and our false positive rate to be between seven and nine percent, slightly above our goal of 5%. However, we also modelled an equivalent PAM system that does not have bearing capabilities and found the false positive rates for that system to be six to eight times higher than the CABOW rate. This higher false positive rate of PAM systems with low spatial information could have significant cost repercussions for offshore wind developers by adding work shutdowns or delays without providing additional protection for right whales. The model we built allows us to explore the placement of PAM systems under various scenarios and will thus help facilitate planning of PAM mitigation systems to meet NOAA Incidental Harassment Authorizations for specific windfarms. We achieved an average system uptime of 98.3%, just below our goal of 99%. The issues that caused these short losses of data have been identified and fixed. Right whale detections and audio clips were typically transferred via radio from the buoys to the base station in two to four seconds. We therefore believe we have developed a highly robust real-time PAM system. Based on the above, we feel we have achieved the stated funding goal of developing a cost-effective and robust real-time PAM system that enables the monitoring of large exclusion zones for right whales during the constructions of offshore windfarms. This should lead to decreased costs and risks for the offshore wind sector while providing robust mitigation for right whales. It is important to state that PAM mitigation will need to be implemented with other mitigation strategies (e.g., visual observers) to provide a complete mitigation strategy to ensure that any effects on right whales from offshore windfarm construction is minimized.

17 WIND ENERGY↗