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The purpose of this work is an assessment of the lunar lava tubes physical characteristics and an evaluation of the their actual safety features from the point of view of the ionizing radiation environment as potential habitats for future lunar exploration crews. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.
Current needs for high-reliability, reusable software; rapid, evolutionary development; and verification of innovative software architectures have focused attention on improving techniques for analyzing the safety and reliability of embedded software.
There are three research reactors in the world having fuel plates curved as circle-involute (a spiral generated around a circle): The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) located in Tennessee, U.S.A. [ORNL, 2018]; The Laue-Langevin Institute (ILL) High Flux Reactor (RHF) located in Grenoble, France [ILL, 2018]; and, The Technical University of Munich (TUM) Research Neutron Source Heinz Maier-Leibnitz (FRM II) located in Garching, Germany [TUM, 2018]. All three reactors are currently using Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU, 235U/U ≥ 20 wt. %) as fuel and all three are actively engaged in activities to convert to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU, 235U/U < 20 wt. %) fuel. More information on these reactors can be found in Section two. For various reasons, these reactors have expressed interest in using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools to perform their Steady-State Thermal-Hydraulic (SSTH) safety calculations. Using CFD tools for SSTH analysis represents generally a significant departure from traditional methods and requires thorough verification and validation (V&V) to be accepted by regulators. This is why Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the involute reactors formed an informal group to help each other in this endeavor. This so-called Involute Working Group (IWG) aims at supporting the qualification of CFD tools for SSTH safety calculations. Activities include benchmarking, code-to-code comparison, Verification and Validation (V&V) as well as technical support. More information on the IWG and the reasons why involute-plate reactors are interested in CFD can be found in Section three. The present study aims at testing three turbulence models commonly implemented in commercial software (namely K-Epsilon, K-Omega and Reynolds-Stress) and assessing their relevance for involute-plate reactor application. An experiment performed by Gambill and Bundy in 1961 was performed to measure heat transfer coefficients in conditions prototypic of the HFIR reactor [Gambill, 1961]. More details on this experiment are provided in Section four. Based on the information available, CFD models of this experiment have been created and the experimental results have been compared to the ones obtained with these CFD models. CFD models and the results of this comparison are provided in Section five.
Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.
Because of the complex core geometry, prismatic high temperature gas-cooled reactors (prismatic HTGRs) often exhibit complex thermal fluid behaviors during both normal operating and transient conditions. Most HTGR designs rely on passive safety system for decay heat removal, such as the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). During postulated accidents like Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event, the decay heat is first radially transferred from the core region to the reactor vessel outer surface, then to the RCCS cooling panels. The peak fuel temperature is controlled by heat transfer mechanisms with two distinctive characteristic length scales, i.e., the core-wise effective heat conduction and local heat conduction in the fuel pellet scale. As both length scales are essential to determine the fuel temperature, from the modeling perspective, computer codes must be able to capture heat transfer in both scales. This is challenging for both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools because of extremely large amount of computation resources required, and for system analysis codes because of the challenge to model the complex core geometry. Under the support of DOE-NE’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, efforts have been pursued to support HTGR technology development and its modeling and simulation needs. There is a particular need for advanced modeling and simulation tools to predict thermal-fluid behavior during safety-related transients. In our previous studies, the ring model was adopted in SAM and further developed to simulate the normal operating condition and a PCC event using the MHTGR-350 design of General Atomics as the reference design. This current work represents a continuation of these previous efforts, and the focus is to critically review and examine simplifications and assumptions made to develop the ring model, and to perform code validation using experimental data from an integral-effect test facility, the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at the Oregon State University. In this study, the test PG-27 from the HTTF test suite was selected for code validation purpose. The test PG-27 is a transient test designed to simulate the PCC event of the MHTGR design. Very good agreements between SAM prediction and experimental measurements were found in both coolant and solid structure temperatures during the transient.
This document describes a method to demonstrate that a UAS, operating in the NAS, can avoid collisions with an equivalent level of safety compared to a manned aircraft. The method is based on the calculation of a collision probability for a UAS , the calculation of a collision probability for a base line manned aircraft, and the calculation of a risk ratio given by: Risk Ratio = P(collision_UAS)/P(collision_manned). A UAS will achieve an equivalent level of safety for collision risk if the Risk Ratio is less than or equal to one. Calculation of the probability of collision for UAS and manned aircraft is accomplished through event/fault trees.
Soybeans (cv. Hoyt) is one of the crops planned for food production within the Advanced Life Support System Integration Testbed (ALSSIT), a proposed habitat simulation for long duration lunar/Mars missions. Soybeans may be processed into a variety of food products, including soymilk, tofu, and tempeh. Due to the closed environmental system and importance of crew health maintenance, food safety is a primary concern on long duration space missions. Identification of the food safety hazards and critical control points associated with the closed ALSSIT system is essential for the development of safe food processing techniques and equipment. A Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) model was developed to reflect proposed production and processing protocols for ALSSIT soybeans. Soybean processing was placed in the type III risk category. During the processing of ALSSIT-grown soybeans, critical control points were identified to control microbiological hazards, particularly mycotoxins, and chemical hazards from antinutrients. Critical limits were suggested at each CCP. Food safety recommendations regarding the hazards and risks associated with growing, harvesting, and processing soybeans; biomass management; and use of multifunctional equipment were made in consideration of the limitations and restraints of the closed ALSSIT.
The Molten Salt Nuclear battery (MsNB) is a microreactor based on technology developed and operated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the 1960s [1]. But the MsNB has been simplified by removing pumps and valves for improved reliability and safety. The MsNB can safely provide up to 10 MWe of power for up to 10 years and potentially it can be transported by air, truck, and rail thanks due to to its small footprint. A computer model has been developed to represent a prototypical 400-kW MsNB using the ANL system code SAM [2]. The model has been used to produce a reactor thermal-hydraulic performance map and perform analysis of unprotected loss of heat sink accident scenario.
Model-based development tools are increasingly being used for system-level development of safety-critical systems. Architectural and behavioral models provide important information that can be leveraged to improve the system safety analysis process. Model-based design artifacts produced in early stage development activities can be used to perform system safety analysis, reducing costs and providing accurate results throughout the system life-cycle. In this report we describe an extension to the Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) that supports modeling of system behavior under failure conditions. This Safety Annex enables the independent modeling of component failures and allows safety engineers to weave various types of fault behavior into the nominal system model. The accompanying tool support uses model checking to propagate errors from their source to their effect on safety properties without the need to add separate propagation specifications. The tool also captures all minimal set of fault combinations that can cause violation of the safety properties, that can be compared to qualitative and quantitative objectives as part of the safety assessment process. We describe the Safety Annex, illustrate its use with a representative example, and discuss and demonstrate the tool support enabling an analyst to investigate the system behavior under failure conditions.
The combination of modern advances in electric propulsion, fly-by-wire controls, autonomy, and increasing demand for short range air taxi operations, is currently producing an outburst of vehicle designs more diverse than ever before. Advanced software tools are needed to support the rapid and safe introduction of any design into the airspace, including the safety of the deployed flight control system and vehicle handling qualities. This paper presents a methodology for building air taxi vehicle models with distributed electric propulsion for use in analyzing flight control system safety at the conceptual design level.The approach builds on existing software tools capable of outputting aeromechanics-based linear perturbation models for Vertical Take-off and Landing vehicles with multiple rotors. Rotor torque inputs are then converted into equivalent voltage control inputs, and the linear state and input dynamics matrices are modified to include electric motor dynamics with common parameters for direct-current electric motors. The linear perturbation dynamics are then stitched across multiple operating points into a quasi-Linear Parameter Varying model that covers the full flight envelope. A Model Predictive Controller is developed for use with the full envelope model, and a tradeoff analysis between handling quality and motor requirements is demonstrated using a six passenger NASA air taxi reference design.
The Second Target Station project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory will develop a cold neutron source to meet growing experimental needs. This paper describes calculations of the residual dose rates associated with the monolith shield plug and the beamline bunker, two key conventional operations and radiation safety features. While neutron production is active, the instrument hall outside the bunker must be generally accessible with dose rates of less than 0.25 mrem/h. When neutron production is halted, the bunker must be accessible for hands-on maintenance operations. Further, these two requirements form the cause for the assessments reported herein of residual dose rates caused by the monolith shield plug and residual dose rates in the bunker. The monolith shield plug was shown to not produce significant dose rates inside the bunker after a 20-year lifetime, and the residual dose rates inside the bunker for the case of an operating beamline were shown to reasonably allow for hands-on maintenance. These calculations are based on preliminary design models of the relevant systems. Additionally, an example showing the significance of considering neutron supermirror physics in transport calculations that track nuclide production and destruction rates to produce gamma sources for residual dose rate calculations is included. The example shows that if neutron supermirror physics is not considered, dose rate fields may be significantly underpredicted.
The recent emergence of distributed electric propulsion Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) aircraft has created a rapid introduction of new design concepts with unique stability and control characteristics. A challenge to realizing the full potential of these vehicles for urban transportation is to gain public acceptance which is largely driven by flight safety. This paper describes ongoing research to address the feasibility of integrating flying qualities safety metrics into conceptual design of VTOL Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles. The discussion is composed of the approach and progress toward a toolbox that integrates with existing NASA rotorcraft design software and processes. Several key challenges are highlighted including modeling requirements for failures, identification of critical failures, and capturing critical failures, with robustness to model uncertainty. A discussion of requirements for safety metrics, specific to UAM vehicles, as well as the effects of the control system design is also included. Results to date have demonstrated the degradation in flying qualities metrics due to propulsion failures.
This presentation covers motivation and Introduction, experimental Data Considered in the Analysis, R-Matrix Analysis and Model Details and Selection of Critical Benchmark Experiments.
Users generates a fission product inventory from either reactor operating history or a nuclear criticality event. RSAC-7 models the effects of high-efficiency particulate air filters or other cleanup systems and calculates the decay and ingrowth during transport through processes, facilities, and the environment. Doses are calculated for inhalation, air immersion, ground surface, ingestion, and cloud gamma pathways. RSAC-7 is used as a tool to evaluate accident conditions in emergency response scenarios, radiological sabotage events, and safety basis accident consequences.
In air traffic management systems, a conflict prevention system examines the traffic and provides ranges of guidance maneuvers that avoid conflicts. This guidance takes the form of ranges of track angles, vertical speeds, or ground speeds. These ranges may be assembled into prevention bands: maneuvers that should not be taken. Unlike conflict resolution systems, which presume that the aircraft already has a conflict, conflict prevention systems show conflicts for all maneuvers. Without conflict prevention information, a pilot might perform a maneuver that causes a near-term conflict. Because near-term conflicts can lead to safety concerns, strong verification of correct operation is required. This paper presents a mathematical framework to analyze the correctness of algorithms that produce conflict prevention information. This paper examines multiple mathematical approaches: iterative, vector algebraic, and trigonometric. The correctness theories are structured first to analyze conflict prevention information for all aircraft. Next, these theories are augmented to consider aircraft which will create a conflict within a given lookahead time. Certain key functions for a candidate algorithm, which satisfy this mathematical basis are presented; however, the proof that a full algorithm using these functions completely satisfies the definition of safety is not provided.
For economic reasons, the US nuclear industry is renewing efforts to build a technical basis to extend peak rod average burnup limits above the current regulatory burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. The primary driver of these efforts is to economically increase pressurized water reactor (PWR) cycle lengths to 24 months, reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies, increase time online, thereby reducing number of outages and their associated cost, higher fuel utilization, and possibly reduce core design constraints. In order for US nuclear utilities to leverage these economic efficiencies, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will likely require nuclear power plants (NPPs) to analyze a number of potential operational occurrences and their potential consequences with each new core design prior to resuming normal operation. Potential operational occurrences can be divided into three primary regimes: (1) normal operation, (2) anticipated operation occurrences (AOOs), and (3) design basis accidents (DBAs). Normal plant operation is an operating regime in which the plant operates within specified operational limits until the end of the cycle, whereas AOOs are events that result in the NPP deviating outside the normal operating regime. A key attribute of an AOO is that the occurrence should be expected. However, by definition, the occurrence of an AOO does not result in significant impact to critical safety functions. The last potential operational occurrence is a DBA. From the fuel performance point-of-view, DBAs can be subdivided into two bounding categories: (1) loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), and (2) reactivity insertion accidents (RIAs). Unlike AOOs, DBAs may result in fuel rod failure. The NRC imposes fundamental acceptance criteria to minimize radiological consequences to the public and onsite staff. Furthermore, safety criteria are typically linked to the fulfillment of other acceptance criteria related to reactor safety equipment designed to mitigate DBAs.
We investigate and model the cook-off behavior of LX-17 to understand the response of explosive systems in abnormal thermal environments. Decomposition has been explored via conventional ODTX (One-Dimensional Time-to-eXplosion), PODTX (ODTX with pressure-measurement), TGA (Thermo-Gravimetric Analysis), and DSC (Differential Scanning Calorimetry) experiments under isothermal and ramped temperature profiles. The data were used to fit reaction rate parameters for proposed schemes in an ALE3D computational model. This model includes chemical reactions, thermo- and hydro-dynamics, and material properties, including thermal expansion, compressibility, and strength. These parameterizations were carried out utilizing a Python evolutionary optimization method on LLNL’s high-performance computing clusters. Additional experiments are being developed to further characterize and monitor decomposition intermediates to improve the model. Once experimentally validated, this model will be scalable to several applications involving LX-17. Furthermore, the optimization methodology developed herein should be applicable to other high explosive materials.