Results for “Risk Informed Decision Making” — Page 7

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Disasters Program: Making EO Data and Expertise Available through the Disasters Mapping Portal to Inform Decision-Makers throughout the Disaster Cycle

The NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Disasters Program promotes the use of Earth Observations (EO) to inform disaster risk reduction and resilience throughout the disaster cycle, from local to global scales, by harnessing NASA science and technology capabilities, through engagement with end users to demonstrate the value and impact of EO to support decision-making, and by supporting end users in their use of EO in decision-making while developing relationships to grow as a trusted source of relevant science and useful results. Through the NASA Earth Science Applied Sciences Disasters Program Mapping Portal, an Esri-backed hub of geospatially enabled disaster products, event-based and near-real-time products are hosted to provide end users with analysis-ready data and data services, keeping in mind their expressed EO needs. In this presentation, case studies of past events will be highlighted, showcasing how EO data and services were provided by the Program and utilized by end users during the disaster cycle. Additionally, this presentation will highlight some of the Program’s ongoing collaboration activities to assist end users in understanding and preparing for utilization of EO data from the Mapping Portal to inform their decision-making throughout the disaster cycle. Ongoing efforts to advance the science provided by the Program on the Mapping Portal through new developments and capabilities will be highlighted, and common challenges and data needs end users often encounter when using EO data and our Program’s innovative solutions to these challenges will be addressed. Furthermore, this presentation will touch on the challenges faced and the solutions created by the Mapping Portal team in managing and hosting a plethora of EO data for end users across various disciplines.

Ronan Lucey↗

NASA NTRS1978

Costing the satellite power system

The paper presents a methodology for satellite power system costing, places approximate limits on the accuracy possible in cost estimates made at this time, and outlines the use of probabilistic cost information in support of the decision-making process. Reasons for using probabilistic costing or risk analysis procedures instead of standard deterministic costing procedures are considered. Components of cost, costing estimating relationships, grass roots costing, and risk analysis are discussed. Risk analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate future costs.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes II

Water resources management can benefit from applications of remote sensing and hydrologic models. These tools can be especially valuable during extreme events and in data-sparse regions. Observational platforms include the GPM, SMAP, Terra, Aqua, Landsat, GRACE, and Sentinel satellites, and other satellite and airborne platforms. They can support the operational water resources management community in responding to climate change, increases in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events. This session will highlight advances in the use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: measure the quantity/quality of hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally; provide information to water managers to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics of interest include (1) extreme events such as floods and droughts; (2) water supply and snow water resource monitoring and forecasting; (3) evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, and agricultural water management; (4) water quality and (5) global water sustainability.

Bolten, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

H53E: Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes I

Water resources management can benefit from applications of remote sensing and hydrologic models. These tools can be especially valuable during extreme events and in data-sparse regions. Observational platforms include the GPM, SMAP, Terra, Aqua, Landsat, GRACE, and Sentinel satellites, and other satellite and airborne platforms. They can support the operational water resources management community in responding to climate change, increases in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events. This session will highlight advances in the use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: measure the quantity/quality of hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally; provide information to water managers to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics of interest include (1) extreme events such as floods and droughts; (2) water supply and snow water resource monitoring and forecasting; (3) evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, and agricultural water management; (4) water quality and (5) global water sustainability.

Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing a Dashboard Interface to Display Assessment of Hazards and Risks to sUAS Flights

The Supplemental Data Services Provider-Consolidated Dashboard (SDSP-CD) is a graphical user interface (GUI) that displays the results of predictive tools in a single location. It is intended to be used in the preflight planning phase of an operation to allow users to proactively assess predicted flight hazards off-line; expanding an operator’s overall situational awareness of a flight plan and providing an opportunity for decision making and assessing the associated risks prior to flight. Hazard data and risk predictions are informative but can be complex to read and understand. However, presented visually and in relation to flight parameters (such as flight path), the nature and significance of hazards become much more evident. The SDSP-Consolidation Dashboard interface was designed to offer a means to present the results of hazard services in an easy to-use format. Two usability studies were run to explore what features might make a suite of hazard assessment services easy to use, and to assess the SDSP-CD interface. The first study evaluated the presentation of information on the GUI and the second evaluated users’ ability to understand and use the information. The studies gathered valuable information about how users approach a hazard assessment task and interpret information from the interface. Many suggestions were given for improving the interface’s information display, to allow users to more quickly understand and interpret the information being presented.

UAV display↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing a Dashboard Interface to Display Assessment of Hazards and Risks to sUAS Flights

The Supplemental Data Services Provider-Consolidated Dashboard (SDSP-CD) is a graphical user interface (GUI) that displays the results of predictive tools in a single location. It is intended to be used in the prefight planning phase of an operation to allow users to proactively assess predicted flight hazards off-line; expanding an operator’s overall situational awareness of a flight plan and providing an opportunity for decision making and assessing the associated risks prior to flight. Hazard data and risk predictions are informative but can be complex to read and understand. However, presented visually and in relation to flight parameters (such as flight path), the nature and significance of hazards become much more evident. The SDSP-Consolidation Dashboard interface was designed to offer a means to present the results of hazard services in an easy to-use format. Two usability studies were run to explore what features might make a suite of hazard assessment services easy to use, and to assess the SDSP-CD interface. The first study evaluated the presentation of information on the GUI and the second evaluated users’ ability to understand and use the information. The studies gathered valuable information about how users approach a hazard assessment task and interpret information from the interface. Many suggestions were given for improving the interface’s information display, to allow users to more quickly understand and interpret the information being presented

UAV display↗

NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 1: Introduction

While urban areas like New York City and its surrounding metropolitan region are key drivers of climate change through emissions of greenhouse gases, cities are also significantly impacted by climate shifts, both chronic changes and extreme events. These are already affecting the New York metropolitan region, including the five boroughs of New York City through higher temperatures, more intense precipitation, and higher sea levels, and will increasingly do so in the coming decades. The City of New York has embarked on a flexible adaptation pathway (i.e., strategies that can evolve through time as climate risk assessment, evaluation of adaptation strategies, and monitoring continues) to respond to climate change challenges. This entails significant programs to develop resilience in communities and critical infrastructure to observed and projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level. The first NPCC Report laid out the risk management framing for the city and region via flexible adaptation pathways. The second New York City Panel on Climate Change Report (NPCC2) developed the “climate projections of record” that are currently being used by the City of New York in its resilience programs . The NPCC3 2019 Report co-generates new tools and methods for the next generation of climate risk assessments and implementation of region-wide resilience. Co-generation is an interactive process by which stakeholders and scientists work together to produce climate change information that is targeted to decision-making needs. These tools and methods can be used to observe, project, and map climate extremes; monitor risks and responses; and engage with communities to develop effective programs. They are especially important at “transformation points” in the adaptation process when large changes in the structure and function of physical, ecological, and social systems of the city and region are undertaken.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2013

TPSAS-NF1676L-17243-DND

This presentation captures ERA Project's effort in using integrated cost-schedule-risk analysis tool, identifying and capturing explicit relationships between program funds, schedule, and discrete risks. The project team merged a myriad of cost and schedule data for timely, objective, uncertainty analysis of the ITD's budget and schedule. The project team conducted detailed schedule uncertainty analysis showing schedule activities and how their interrelationships were impacted, representing an impressive advance beyond routine Gantt charts. Furthermore, the ERA Project collected discrete risk events including their impacts to costs and/or schedule and interwove these risks into cost and schedule logic networks, providing the foundation to conduct cost and schedule analyses. The team integrated this data into the analysis model, providing probabilistic results that were then used by the ERA Project's senior management for decision-making purposes. The ERA Project management team, through technical and pathfinder expertise in integrating cost, schedule, risk, and technical content, consistently provided risk-informed recommendations to Implementing Centers and ISRP senior management which ultimately ensured the successful ARMD Key Decision Point (KDP) review of the ERA Phase 2 ITD Portfolio and increased the likelihood of achieving technical objectives within cost and schedule constraints.

Gaudy M Bezos-O'Connor↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Usability of Pre-Flight Planning Interfaces for Supplemental Data Service Provider Tools to Support Uncrewed Aircraft System Traffic Management

Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUASs) operate in low-altitude, uncontrolled airspace – where support services for their operators (UASOs) are not currently provided. NASA’s System-Wide Safety (SWS) project is identifying the potential risks and hazards to sUAS operations to provide, inform, and improve the designs of In-time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS). The IASMS will include a suite of data-driven tools that compile and analyze data collected from aviation systems and environmental sources to predict hazards, and provide information to allow operators to mitigate these risks (Young et al., 2020). These risk and hazard services can be run and displayed to operators on graphical user interfaces (GUIs), as they relate to a vehicle(s)’ route of flight. These interfaces offer both a means to present hazard service output and offer an opportunity to test user understanding of the information, user decision making, and the best ways to present such data to an operator. Based on these future technologies and intended missions, it is important to investigate interface requirements and evaluate how operators might use these tools. Presenting salient and meaningful risk assessment information to operators is necessary to increase situation awareness and ultimately safety. Building on previous research (Feldman et al., 2022), a usability study comparing two GUIs was conducted to explore how individuals interacted with different styles of information displays. A series of pre-flight hazard and risk-assessment tasks were developed to evaluate participant performance using the Supplemental Data Service Provider Consolidated Dashboard and the Human Automation Team Interface System interfaces. Participants were trained to use both GUIs and their performance was analysed across different scenarios involving multiple sUASs. Performance on simple tasks and the System Usability Scale scores were reported by Feldman et al., 2023. Additional analyses and evaluations on more complex tasks (e.g., risk assessment, prioritization), workload and response times are examined in this paper.

sUAV interfaces↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Usability of Pre-flight Planning Interfaces for Supplemental Data Service Provider Tools to Support Uncrewed Aircraft System Traffic Management

Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUASs) operate in low-altitude, uncontrolled airspace – where support services for their operators (UASOs) are not currently provided. NASA’s System-Wide Safety (SWS) project is identifying the potential risks and hazards to sUAS operations to provide, inform, and improve the designs of In-time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS). The IASMS will include a suite of data-driven tools that compile and analyze data collected from aviation systems and environmental sources to predict hazards, and provide information to allow operators to mitigate these risks (Young et al., 2020). These risk and hazard services can be run and displayed to operators on graphical user interfaces (GUIs), as they relate to a vehicle(s)’ route of flight. These interfaces offer both a means to present hazard service output and offer an opportunity to test user understanding of the information, user decision making, and the best ways to present such data to an operator. Based on these future technologies and intended missions, it is important to investigate interface requirements and evaluate how operators might use these tools. Presenting salient and meaningful risk assessment information to operators is necessary to increase situation awareness and ultimately safety. Building on previous research (Feldman et al., 2022), a usability study comparing two GUIs was conducted to explore how individuals interacted with different styles of information displays. A series of pre-flight hazard and risk-assessment tasks were developed to evaluate participant performance using the Supplemental Data Service Provider Consolidated Dashboard and the Human Automation Team Interface System interfaces. Participants were trained to use both GUIs and their performance was analysed across different scenarios involving multiple sUASs. Performance on simple tasks and the System Usability Scale scores were reported by Feldman et al., 2023. Additional analyses and evaluations on more complex tasks (e.g., risk assessment, prioritization), workload and response times are examined in this paper.

sUAV interfaces↗

NASA NTRS2013

Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular meningitis and malaria. In this paper, we present the new and improved products that have been developed for: (i) estimating dust aerosol for forecasting risks of meningitis and (ii) for monitoring temperature and rainfall and integrating them into a vectorial capacity model for forecasting risks of malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map Room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

parasitic diseases↗

NASA NTRS2001

Integrating Public Perspectives in Sample Return Planning

Planning for extraterrestrial sample returns, whether from Mars or other solar system bodies, must be done in a way that integrates planetary protection concerns with the usual mission technical and scientific considerations. Understanding and addressing legitimate societal concerns about the possible risks of sample return will be a critical part of the public decision making process ahead. This paper presents the results of two studies, one with lay audiences, the other with expert microbiologists, designed to gather information, on attitudes and concerns about sample return risks and planetary protection. Focus group interviews with lay subjects, using generic information about Mars sample return and a preliminary environmental impact assessment, were designed to obtain an indication of how the factual content is perceived and understood by the public. A research survey of microbiologists gathered information on experts' views and attitudes about sample return, risk management approaches and space exploration risks. These findings, combined with earlier research results on risk perception, will be useful in identifying levels of concern and potential conflicts in understanding between experts and the public about sample return risks. The information will be helpful in guiding development of the environmental impact statement and also has applicability to proposals for sample return from other solar system bodies where scientific uncertainty about extraterrestrial life may persist at the time of mission planning.

Race, Margaret S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Tool Use Within NASA Software Quality Assurance

As space mission software systems become larger and more complex, it is increasingly important for the software assurance effort to have the ability to effectively assess both the artifacts produced during software system development and the development process itself. Conceptually, assurance is a straightforward idea - it is the result of activities carried out by an organization independent of the software developers to better inform project management of potential technical and programmatic risks, and thus increase management's confidence in the decisions they ultimately make. In practice, effective assurance for large, complex systems often entails assessing large, complex software artifacts (e.g., requirements specifications, architectural descriptions) as well as substantial amounts of unstructured information (e.g., anomaly reports resulting from testing activities during development). In such an environment, assurance engineers can benefit greatly from appropriate tool support. In order to do so, an assurance organization will need accurate and timely information on the tool support available for various types of assurance activities. In this paper, we investigate the current use of tool support for assurance organizations within NASA, and describe on-going work at JPL for providing assurance organizations with the information about tools they need to use them effectively.

software assurance↗

NASA NTRS2019

Space Program Advocacy Can Distort Project Management and Damage Systems Engineering

Over-optimistic project advocacy often causes exaggerated performance claims and underestimated costs and schedules. This can distort project management and damage systems engineering. NASA projects such as the space shuttle and Hubble are extreme examples. NASA's spectacular success in the Apollo moon landings seems to have produced overconfidence and carelessness, but also to have gained tolerance for unrealistic claims and forgiveness when they were proven wrong. Apollo risk analysis predicted many astronaut fatalities. This was believed but was potentially damaging to the Apollo program, so risk analysis was discontinued. The moon landings beat bad odds because Apollo obsessively reduced risk. Its success seemed to confirm that risk analysis was unreasonably pessimistic and that risk could be overcome by good engineering. This understanding caused risk to be increased during space shuttle engineering and led to an unnecessarily dangerous approach. The shuttle design placed a fragile spacecraft next to the fuel tanks and failed to provide crew escape or launch abort. These design decisions directly caused the Challenger and Columbia tragedies. After Challenger, risk analysis was re-established. The current rocket and capsule design does consider risk and the result strongly resembles Apollo. Apollo advocacy led NASA to abandon risk analysis and this was ultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies. Excessive advocacy that distorts risk, cost, and schedule could be prevented in an ideal organization that used systems engineering to make rational and fair decisions. However, most real organizations accommodate human and group needs using informal methods often described as "the system." Humans have biases, use innate decision making heuristics, instinctively rely on "gut feel," and establish deviant groups through groupthink. Expecting organizations to become totally rational is impractical, but specific problems such as neglecting risk and underestimating cost and schedule can be directly challenged with some hope of success.

Jones, Harry W.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Development of Risk Assessment Matrix for NASA Engineering and Safety Center

This paper describes a study, which had as its principal goal the development of a sufficiently detailed 5 x 5 Risk Matrix Scorecard. The purpose of this scorecard is to outline the criteria by which technical issues can be qualitatively and initially prioritized. The tool using this score card has been proposed to be one of the information resources the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) takes into consideration when making decisions with respect to incoming information on safety concerns across the entire NASA agency. The contents of this paper discuss in detail each element of the risk matrix scorecard, definitions for those elements and the rationale behind the development of those definitions. This scorecard development was performed in parallel with the tailoring of the existing Futron Corporation Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) software tool. IRMA was tailored to fit NESC needs for evaluating incoming safety concerns and was renamed NESC Assessment Risk Management Application (NAFMA) which is still in developmental phase.

Malone, Roy W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study. Volume 1: Executive summary

The technical and economic aspects of satellite solar power systems are presented with a focus on the current configuration 5000 MW system. The technical studies include analyses of the orbital system structures, control and stationkeeping, and the formulation of program plans and costs for input to the economic analyses. The economic analyses centered about the development and use of a risk analysis model for a system cost assessment, identification of critical issues and technologies, and to provide information for programmatic decision making. A preliminary economic examination of some utility interface issues is included. Under the present state-of-knowledge, it is possible to formulate a program plan for the development of a satellite solar power system that can be economically justified. The key area of technological uncertainty is man's ability to fabricate and assemble large structures in space.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Overview of NASA's IM&S Verification and Validation Process Plan and Specification for Space Exploration

NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model's fidelity, credibility, and quality. This information will allow the decision-maker to understand the risks involved in using a model's results in the decision-making process. This presentation will discuss NASA's approach for verification and validation (V&V) of its models or simulations supporting space exploration. This presentation will describe NASA's V&V process and the associated M&S verification and validation (V&V) activities required to support the decision-making process. The M&S V&V Plan and V&V Report templates for ESMD will also be illustrated.

Gravitz, Robert M.↗