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DOE OSTI2025

AI Improves the Accuracy, Reliability, and Economic Value of Continental‐Scale Flood Predictions

Accurate flood early warnings are critical to minimize damage and loss of life. Current large‐scale operational forecasting systems, however, have limited accuracy, description of uncertainty, and computational efficiency. While Artificial intelligence (AI) can address these limitations in principle, the accuracy and reliability of AI forecasts have thus far proven insufficient. Here we present a novel hybrid framework that integrates AI‐based machinery termed Errorcastnet (ECN) with the National Water Model (NWM) to showcase the potential of ensemble AI flood forecasts over the contiguous U.S. ECN boosts prediction accuracy four‐ to six‐fold across lead times of 1–10 days, while providing uncertainty quantification. It also outperforms Google's state‐of‐the‐art global AI model. ECN‐based forecasts offer superior economic value (up to four‐fold) for decision‐making as compared to those from NWM alone. ECN performs well in varied ecoregions, physiography, and land management conditions. The framework is computationally efficient, enabling national‐scale ensemble forecasts in minutes.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Connected Thermostat Alternatives for Room Air Conditioners and Minisplit Heat Pumps

The availability of smart, connected thermostats has improved climate control, energy efficiency, and grid demand-response programs for central HVAC systems. However, a significant gap exists in addressing integrated control systems for point-source heating and cooling systems such as window air-conditioners (window ACs) and mini-split heat pumps (MSHPs). This report examines the emerging market of third-party connected thermostats tailored for these systems, focusing on their effectiveness, reliability, and potential barriers to adoption.This study evaluates several commercially available products designed for room ACs and MSHPs through a series of laboratory tests. While these infrared-based (IR-based) thermostats offer remote temperature control and scheduling via mobile apps, our findings reveal that none are seamless, with reliability of basic functions being a critical factor. Promising features include integration of indoor air quality metrics and time-of-use pricing, but the latter are not yet available in the U.S. Barriers to broad user acceptance include non-seamless setup processes, challenges in thermostat placement, and unclear product differentiation. There is a pressing need for research and development in enabling MSHPs and central thermostats to coordinate, enhancing energy savings and comfort in retrofit applications. This study underscores the importance of further innovation in connected thermostat technology to address the diverse needs of single-zone HVAC systems and promote efficient energy management in households.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility Capability eXpansion (DCX) Strategy

This document details the strategy proposed to meet the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) requirement for the Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility Sustainment and Modernization projects identified in multiple NNSA Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan (SSMP) reports to Congress [NNSA, 2020; 2021; 2022; 2023; 2024]. DARHT has become indispensable for the certification of the primaries of U.S. nuclear weapons since the current U.S. moratorium halted underground nuclear testing more than 30 years ago. However, aging facilities, evolving technology, and other issues are limiting or threatening the capability of DARHT to meet NNSA’s expanding mission needs now and into the future. This DARHT Capability eXpansion (DCX) strategy was developed to address NNSA needs by extending DARHT’s reliability and resilience, increasing the quality and quantity of DARHT data, and enabling hydrodynamic measurements in complex environments. The strategy can be implemented through integration of line-item projects, acquisition of major items of equipment, and other actions coordinated with the execution of the SSMP. This strategy document is intended for U.S. Government officials, particularly authorizers, appropriators, and program leaders. It may also be furnished to DARHT users, customers, collaborators, stakeholders, and visitors as needed

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of MOSCATO: A CFD-Level Electrochemistry and Corrosion Simulator for Molten Salt Systems

For both coolant and fueled variants of molten salt reactors (MSRs), the corrosion of structural materials is a significant challenge. The corrosion stems from chemical and electrochemical reactions initiated by fissile material, fission products, and impurities in the salt. Lower-fidelity models rely on empirical correlations for mass transfer, simplified lumped temperature profiles, and similar assumptions. They do not capture detailed spatial variations in complex geometries, creating the need for high-fidelity modeling to bridge this gap.As we approach the demonstration and possible deployment of MSRs in this decade, the development of a high-fidelity, high-performance simulator becomes imperative. To simulate the complex electrochemical environment and corrosion within molten salt systems, we have developed the Molten Salt Chemistry And TranspOrt (MOSCATO) code. This endeavor is comprised of three essential components. First, mass transfer equations are coupled with the Navier-Stokes equations in order to account for the transport of species in the salt. Second, the diffusion of alloy constituents, such as Cr, Fe, Ni, etc. is simulated within the structural metals. Third, the alloy and salt domains are coupled to account for the heterogeneous chemical and electrochemical reactions that occur at the salt-alloy interface.MOSCATO manages all three components within the framework of the highly scalable, open-source spectral element method computational fluid dynamics code Nek5000/NekRS. This integration enables MOSCATO to harness the immense computational power of modern high-performance computing resources, ensuring both high fidelity and computational speed.In addition to code development, we have initiated a comprehensive verification and validation campaign, utilizing data from diverse sources. First, MOSCATO's electrochemical solver was verified with reference numerical data. Then validation occurred against experiments: one of a thermal galvanic cell and the other for corrosion in flowing molten salt of FLiNaK (LiF-NaF-KF). This campaign verified and validated MOSCATO as a reliable tool for simulating electrochemical environments and corrosion in molten salt systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Controller Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of a Microgrid Controller for a Microgrid System with Multiple Grid-Forming Inverters

This paper presents the laboratory evaluation of a commercial Microgrid Management System (MGMS) implemented in the real-world Bronzeville Microgrid which features a futuristic scenario with high renewable energy integration and the use of multiple Grid-Forming (GFM) inverters. The primary objective of the performance evaluation for the MGMS is to assess the MGMS's capability to dispatch GFM units, including a GFM PV unit and two GFM battery units, to maintain the system stability and ensure economic operation, thus guaranteeing the microgrid's resilience during prolonged outages and dynamic events. The laboratory controller hardware-in-the-loop provides realistic testing environment through detailed electromagnetic transient modeling of the microgrid system, hardware MGMS, and standard communication protocols (DNP3). The CHIL evaluation shows how the MGMS effectively manages the GFM inverters, highlighting its performance in maintaining stability, reliability, and survivability in a microgrid environment with a high penetration of renewable energy sources.

controller hardware-in-the-loop↗

DOE OSTI2024

Controller Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of a Microgrid Controller for a Microgrid System with Multiple Grid-Forming Inverters: Preprint

controller hardware-in-the-loop↗

DOE OSTI2024

Controller-Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of a Microgrid Controller for a Microgrid System With Multiple Grid-Forming Inverters

This paper presents the laboratory evaluation of a commercial Microgrid Management System (MGMS) implemented in the real-world Bronzeville Microgrid which features a futuristic scenario with high renewable energy integration and the use of multiple Grid-Forming (GFM) inverters. The primary objective of the performance evaluation for the MGMS is to assess the MGMS's capability to dispatch GFM units, including a GFM PV unit and two GFM battery units, to maintain the system stability and ensure economic operation, thus guaranteeing the microgrid's resilience during prolonged outages and dynamic events. The laboratory controller hardware-in-the-loop provides realistic testing environment through detailed electromagnetic transient modeling of the microgrid system, hardware MGMS, and standard communication protocols (DNP3). This CHIL evaluation shows how the MGMS effectively manages the GFM inverters, highlighting its performance in maintaining stability, reliability, and survivability in a microgrid environment with a high penetration of renewable energy sources.

controller hardware-in-the-loop↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pulsar’s Application in Energy Systems: Review of Current Status, Challenges, and Opportunities

To accelerate progress toward the realization of advanced energy systems, this review explores the potential of pulsar technology to create a more stable, economical, and environmentally friendly energy infrastructure. Pulsars, with their precise and reliable timing characteristics, have emerged as a promising tool for enhancing energy systems. This review begins by examining the development history of pulsar technology, shedding light on its evolution and the milestones achieved. It then provides a comprehensive summary of the current state of research, highlighting recent advancements and breakthroughs in this field. It also explores transformative pulsar applications in energy systems, including improved grid stability, advanced energy synchronization, and efficient energy storage management. However, implementing pulsar-related technologies presents significant technical, economic, and operational challenges. This review examines these hurdles and proposes strategies to overcome them, emphasizing the need for innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, and supportive policies to fully integrate pulsar technologies into sustainable energy systems.

application↗

DOE OSTI2026

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Demonstrating the Potential of Adaptive LMS Filtering on FPGA-Based Qubit Control Platforms for Improved Qubit Readout in 2D and 3D Quantum Processing Units

Advancements in quantum computing underscore the critical need for sophisticated qubit readout techniques to accurately discern quantum states. This abstract presents our research intended for optimizing readout pulse fidelity for 2D and 3D Quantum Processing Units (QPUs), the latter coupled with Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) cavities. Focusing specifically on the application of the Least Mean Squares (LMS) adaptive filtering algorithm, we explore its integration into the FPGA-based control systems to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of qubit state detection by improving Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR). Implementing the LMS algorithm on the Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoC Gen 3 devices (RFSoC 4x2 FPGA and ZCU216 FPGA) using the Quantum Instrumentation Control Kit (QICK) open-source platform, we aim to dynamically test and adjust the filtering parameters in real-time to characterize and adapt to the noise profile presented in quantum computing readout signals. Our preliminary results demonstrate the LMS filter's capability to maintain high readout accuracy while efficiently managing FPGA resources. These findings are expected to contribute to developing more reliable and scalable quantum computing architectures, highlighting the pivotal role of adaptive signal processing in quantum technology advancements.

Johnson, Hans↗

DOE OSTI2024

Demonstrating the Potential of Adaptive LMS Filtering on FPGA-Based Qubit Control Platforms for Improved Qubit Readout in 2D and 3D Quantum Processing Units

Johnson, Hans↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Impact of Managed EV Charging for Reliable Operation of Bulk Power Systems with High Non-Dispatchable Generation

The growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and variable-generation (VG) sources introduces new challenges for power-system operations. This study introduces a modeling framework and evaluates five EV charging strategies under projected 2040 grid conditions in the Evergy service territory with high non-dispatchable generation. Using realistic EV behavior and generation models, their impacts on system peak demand, ramp rate, and reserve capacity are evaluated. Results show that only the peak-avoidance strategy effectively reduces system peak demand, while decentralized strategies-particularly cost based dynamic charging-can exacerbate peaks due to synchronized user behavior. However, ramp-rate minimization strategy significantly reduce the stress on dispatchable generation achieving the lowest maximum absolute ramp rate (MARR) (56.81 MW) and lowest reserve requirement (2.39 GW). In contrast, unmanaged and TOU random strategies increase the stress on dispatchable generation sources with increased MARR and reserve requirements. These findings highlight the importance of coordinated, system-aware managed charging strategies to ensure reliable and affordable grid operation in the presence of EVs and VG sources.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Risk-informed Hierarchical Control of Behind-the-Meter DERs with AMI Data Integration (Final Technical Report)

This project addresses several key barriers to implement the next generation demand response applications and provides a clear understanding of implementing hierarchical and standalone control using AMI data. Through this program, Eaton has developed and tested a meter-as-a-controller prototype with the help of other partners--- National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Pecan St Inc. (PSI), and Delaware Electric Cooperative (DEC). The controller can utilize residential controllable loads such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioner (HVAC), electric water heater and distributed energy resources like solar PV and battery energy storage systems for off-setting the demand that is required from the grid, thus providing reliable grid-services for demand reduction or peak shaving. The controller is also capable of coordinating the resources of the premises for better management and energy efficiency while meeting the comfort bound of the premises owner as quality-of-service. The development has been demonstrated in a three virtual-home setup at system performance lab of NREL with real appliances (HVAC, electric water heater, solar PV, and battery). The technology has also been proved through laboratory and field demonstration with successful interconnectivity (e.g., end-to-end communication and data exchange) between the residential appliances and utility through the RF network at Delaware Electric Co-op (DEC) in Delaware.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Assessment of Deployed Sensors and Technologies Supporting Molten Salt Loop Operations

During FY24, Argonne conducted a variety of activities to develop and assess new monitoring and control technologies towards enabling long-duration operations of molten salt reactor systems. The first objective of the work completed this year was to deploy technologies capable of reliably and rapidly monitoring the operational health of a molten salt loop. To achieve this, the project focused on specific tasks, including: (1) electroanalytical technique development for use in deployed sensors, and (2) operations of sensors on the Facility to Alleviate Salt Technology Risks (FASTR) loop at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The second objective of the work this year focused on creating a pumped actinide flow loop to enable long-duration salt chemistry and corrosion studies using uranium-bearing fuel salts. Toward that end, we designed and procured a loop capable of being installed into a radiological glovebox at Argonne. A corrosion control system was also designed for integration into this loop. These combined systems will enable the feasibility of corrosion control and management systems to be investigated with complex chloride fuel salt mixtures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

FERC order 2222 & DER policy and implementation report - January 2026

The January 2026 FERC 2222 Tracker Report provides an overview of the progress and challenges in the implementation of FERC Order 2222, emphasizing the critical need for state-level action to address gaps in DERA/EDC communication protocols. The report highlights the importance of reliable communication between electric distribution companies (EDCs) and DER aggregators (DERAs) for seamless market operations, noting the absence of specific directives from FERC and RTO/ISO compliance filings. Key discussions include the operational coordination required to manage DER operations within aggregated markets, the potential use of tools like DER Registries for efficient data exchange, and the implications of non-performance due to communication issues. While steps are being taken at the state level, such as ongoing policy development and bi-monthly webinars for stakeholder education, no states have fully developed coordination frameworks as of early 2026. The report underscores the growing role of states and local regulators in defining these protocols and ensuring effective coordination amidst the complex dynamics of distributed energy resources (DERs) integration into wholesale markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

mzPeak: Designing a Scalable, Interoperable, and Future-Ready Mass Spectrometry Data Format

Advances in mass spectrometry (MS) instrumentation, such as higher resolution, faster scan speeds, and improved sensitivity, have significantly increased the volume and complexity of data. The growing adoption of imaging and ion mobility further amplifies these challenges across MS-based omics fields, including proteomics, metabolomics, and lipidomics. While these technologies unlock new possibilities, they also present significant challenges in data management, storage, and accessibility. Existing open formats, such as the XML-based community standards mzML and imzML, struggle to meet the demands of modern MS workflows due to their large file sizes, slow data access, and limited metadata support. Vendor-specific formats, while optimized for proprietary instruments, lack interoperability, comprehensive metadata support and long-term archival reliability. This white paper lays the groundwork for mzPeak, a next-generation community data format designed to address these challenges and support high-throughput, multi-dimensional MS workflows. By adopting a hybrid model that combines efficient binary storage for numerical data and both human and machine-readable metadata storage, mzPeak will reduce file sizes, accelerate data access, and offer a scalable, adaptable solution for evolving MS technologies. For researchers, mzPeak will enable enhanced interoperability across platforms, seamless support for complex workflows including ion mobility and MS imaging, and faster data access compared to existing community formats such as mzML. Its design will ensure data is managed in compliance with regulatory standards, essential for applications such as precision medicine and chemical safety, where long-term data integrity and accessibility are critical. For vendors, mzPeak provides a streamlined, open alternative to proprietary formats, reducing the burden of regulatory compliance while aligning with the industry's push for transparency and standardization. By offering a high-performance, interoperable solution, mzPeak positions vendors to meet customer demands for sustainable data management tools which will be able to handle emerging and future data types and workflows. mzPeak aspires to become the cornerstone of MS data management, empowering researchers, vendors, and developers to innovate and collaborate more effectively.

data formats↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the role of Battery Energy Storage Systems in the day-ahead Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment problem under renewable penetration

The integration of variable Renewable Energy Sources (vRES) to alleviate greenhouse gas emissions has introduced significant challenges for power systems operations. These challenges include high levels of uncertainty due to the intermittence associated with vRES and therefore impose the need to devise a reliable and cost-effective day-ahead unit commitment and power and reserves scheduling for real-time operations. Also, this increasing penetration of vRES requires higher ramping capabilities from units originally designed for other purposes (e.g., base-load generation), which might be exacerbated during contingency states. Hence, in this work, we propose a methodology to address the day-ahead Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment (CCUC) problem that leverages the participation of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSs) to address load-following and post-contingency management, therefore alleviating the ramping burden on conventional thermal generators. To do so, we formulate a three-level optimization problem that represents the decision-making process of obtaining the least-cost commitment, generation and reserves scheduling, while restricting the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of the system imbalance at real-time operations to user-defined tolerance levels. In addition, we devise a computationally efficient solution approach for the proposed problem based on the Column-and Constraint Generation (CCG) algorithmic framework. Two numerical experiments are conducted to empirically illustrate the benefits of the proposed methodology. Key results indicate a reduction in real-time ramping needs and a better usage of the system resources, with a reduction in the overall system commitment levels and reserve scheduling costs when compared to a benchmark case in which storage is not available.

Moreira, Alexandre↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel Deep Learning Transformer Model for Short to Sub‐Seasonal Streamflow Forecast

Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are becoming crucial for effective water management in an increasingly variable climate. However, streamflow forecast remains challenging over extended lead times, uncertainty in meteorological inputs, and increased frequency and variability in extreme weather and climate events. We implemented a Future Time Series Transformer (FutureTST) model for streamflow forecasting that separately integrates past meteorological and streamflow data while incorporating future weather conditions. FutureTST achieves a mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.82 to 0.67 for 1- to 30-day streamflow forecasts. Incorporating upstream streamflow information improved forecast accuracy by up to 10%. During real-time forecast, FutureTST maintains higher forecast skills of 9.03 for 1-day and 5.74 for 14-day forecasts. In contrast, calibrated process-based hydrological model forecasts become unreliable beyond a 4-day lead time. Our findings demonstrate the potential of FutureTST as a reliable streamflow forecasting tool that offers a valuable addition to operational flood monitoring systems and climate-resilient decision-making.

Ambika, Anukesh Krishnankutty [Oak Ridge National ↗