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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable Valorization of CO2 through Nuclear Power-to-X Pathways

Some of the issues concerning energy security and climate change can be addressed by employing nuclear power (NP) to supply the energy required for the conversion of carbon dioxide (CO2) into chemicals, products, and materials. Nuclear energy represents a neutral carbon source that can be generated sustainably, reliably, and consistently. Nuclear power plants (NPPs) could supply energy in the form of heat, electricity, and ionizing radiation to drive CO2 chemical reactions underpinning NP-to-X type of pathways. CO2 conversion processes are either commercially available or emerging technologies at different developmental maturity stages. This work reviews the published literature (articles and patents) that reports R&D results and the understanding and development of chemical reactions and processes, as well as the efforts in integrating NPPs and chemical processes (CPs). As will be made evident, a new industrial era for the manufacturing of decarbonized chemicals, products, and materials will be possible by developing and implementing new (more energy- and carbon-efficient) processes responding to the NP-to-X pathways. This new decarbonizing platform not only contributes to achieving net zero goals but also broadens the NPP product beyond electricity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring Very Low Radiation Doses in PTFE for Nuclear Forensic Enrichment Reconstruction

Every country that has made nuclear weapons has used uranium enrichment. Despite the centrality of this technology to international security, there is still no reliable physical marker of past enrichment that can be used to perform forensic verification of historically produced weapons. We show that the extremely low radioactivity from uranium alpha emissions during enrichment leaves detectable and irreversible calorimetric signatures in the common enrichment gasket material PTFE, allowing for historical reconstruction of past enrichment activities at a sensitivity better than one weapon's quantity of highly enriched uranium. Fast scanning calorimetry also enables the measurement of recrystallization enthalpies of sequentially microtomed slices, confirming the magnitude and the type of radiation exposure while also providing a detection of tampering and a method for analyzing field samples useful for treaty verification. This work opens the door for common items to be turned into precise dosimeters to detect the past presence of radioactivity, nuclear materials, and related activities with high confidence.

Connick, Rachel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation-Induced Interfacial Hydroxyl Transformation on Boehmite and Gibbsite Basal Surfaces

Understanding the radiolytic reactivity of aluminum oxyhydroxide phases widely present in stored nuclear wastes is essential to develop reliable processing approaches. Recent experiments using vibrational sum frequency generation (VSFG), a surface sensitive technique, have shown that rehydration of γ-irradiated boehmite (010) and gibbsite (001) surfaces does not recover the initial hydroxyl density prior to irradiation. In this study, using density functional theory and nudged elastic band calculations, we examine dehydration and rehydration of these surfaces and attendant proton transfer mechanisms. While dehydration of both surfaces is predicted to be energetically unfavorable, rehydration of boehmite (010) is favorable after overcoming an energy barrier of 0.52 eV that relates to the orientation of surface hydroxyls controlling the hydrogen bonding network of adsorbed water. In the case of gibbsite (001), for which the experimental results suggest that rehydration mainly involves the reformation of interlayer hydroxyls, we found that a two-proton transfer mechanism is more likely than a one-proton transfer mechanism, and that it prevents the reorientation of interlayer hydroxyls into intralayer hydroxyls consistent with experimental VSFG findings. A detailed analysis of the effect of surface hydrogen vacancy on the strength of hydrogen bond interactions was performed, which indicates that H 2 and H 2 O are the energetically most favorable product species to form from radiation-induced surface H and/or OH defects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation and Modeling of Time-Resolved X-Ray Detector for the Saturn Accelerator

In this work, we present the technology-aided computer design (TCAD) device simulation and modeling of a silicon p-i-n diode for detecting time-dependent X-ray radiation. We show that the simulated forward and reverse breakdown current–voltage characteristics agree well with the measured data under nonradiation environment by only calibrating carrier lifetimes for the forward bias case and avalanche model critical fields for the reverse bias condition. Using the calibrated parameters and other nominal material properties, we simulated the radiation responses of the p-i-n diode and compared with experimental data when the diode was exposed to X-ray radiation at Sandia’s Saturn facility and the Idaho State University (ISU) TriMeV facility. For Saturn’s Gaussian dose-rate pulses, we show three findings from TCAD simulations. First, the simulated photocurrents are in excellent agreement with the measured data for two dose-rate pulses with peak values of 1.16×10 10 and 1.88×10 10 rad(Si)/s. Second, the simulation results of high dose-rate pulses predict increased delayed photocurrents with longer time tails in the diode electrical responses due to excess carrier generation. Third, simulated peak values of diode radiation responses versus peak dose rates at different bias conditions provide useful guidance to determine the dose-rate range that the p-i-n diode can reliably detect in experiment. For TriMeV’s non-Gaussian dose-rate pulse, our simulated diode response is in decent agreement with the measured data without further calibration. We also studied the effects of device geometry, recombination process, and dose-rate enhancement via TCAD simulations to understand the higher measured response in the time after the peak dose-rate radiation for the p-i-n diode exposed to TriMeV irradiation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Absolute cross section of the C 12 ( p , γ ) N 13 reaction

Solar neutrino measurements have recently reached a level of sensitivity such that CNO fluxes can now be experimentally determined. While these first measurements are still only sensitive to the higher energy neutrinos resulting from the β + decays of 15 Ο produced by the 14 Ν ⁡( p ,$\gamma$)⁢ 15 O reaction, future measurements will work towards detection of neutrinos from the β + decay of 13 N from the 12 C ⁡( p ,$\gamma$)⁢ 13 N reaction. Here, this paper reports on a recent measurement of the 12 C ⁡( p ,$\gamma$)⁢ 13 N reaction covering a broad laboratory energy range between 1.0 and 2.5 MeV. The measurement was made to better determine the overall normalization of the absolute cross section and to explore the interference effects between the two broad, overlapping resonances at proton energies of 0.460 and 1.689 MeV and the direct capture to the ground state of 13 N in the framework of a multichannel R -matrix analysis. This work takes into account previous radiative capture as well as elastic 12 C ( p , p ) 12 C scattering data, making uncertainty estimations using a Bayesian framework, to determine a reliable extrapolation of the low energy S factor towards the stellar energy range of CNO hydrogen burning. These new experimental results, and a detailed investigation of the past literature data, suggest that the resonant component of the cross section should be 30% lower than previously accepted.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring very low radiation doses in PTFE for nuclear forensic enrichment reconstruction

Every country that has made nuclear weapons has used uranium enrichment to do so. Despite the centrality of this technology to international security, there is still no reliable physical marker of past enrichment in the open literature that can be used to perform forensic verification of historically produced weapons on gas centrifuges. We show that the extremely low radioactivity from uranium alpha emissions during enrichment leaves detectable and irreversible calorimetric signatures in the common enrichment gasket material PTFE, allowing for historical reconstruction of past enrichment activities at a sensitivity better than one weapon’s quantity of highly enriched uranium. Fast scanning calorimetry also enables the measurement of recrystallization enthalpies of sequentially microtomed slices, confirming the magnitude and the type of radiation exposure while also providing detection of tampering and a method for analyzing field samples useful for treaty verification. Furthermore, this work opens the door for common items to be turned into precise dosimeters to detect the past presence of radioactivity, nuclear materials, and related activities with high confidence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning to characterize gas hydrate reservoirs in Mackenzie Delta (Canada) and on the Alaska north slope (USA)

Here, artificial neural network-trained models were used to predict gas hydrate saturation distributions in permafrost-associated deposits in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend on the Alaska North Slope (ANS), USA and at the Mallik research site in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. The database of Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) and wireline logs collected at five wells (Mount Elbert, Ignik Sikumi, and Kuparuk 7–11–12 wells at ANS, plus 2L-38 and 5L-38 wells at the Mallik research site) includes more than 10,000 depth points, which were used for training, validation, and testing the machine learning (ML) models. Data used in training the ML models include the well logs of density, porosity, electrical resistivity, gamma radiation, and acoustic wave velocity measurements. Combinations of two or three out of these five well logs were found to reliably predict the gas hydrate saturation with accuracy varying between 80 and 90% when compared to the gas hydrate saturations derived from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-based technique. The ML models trained on data from three ANS wells achieved high fidelity predictions of gas hydrate saturation at the Mallik site. The results obtained in this study indicate that ML models trained on data from one geological basin can successfully predict key reservoir parameters for permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations within another basin. A generalized approach for selecting a well log combination that can improve model accuracy is discussed. Overall, the study outcome supports earlier work demonstrating that ML models trained on non-NMR well logs are a viable alternative to physics-driven methods for predicting gas hydrate saturations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Solar Receiver Tube With Modified Surface Roughness for Enhanced and Selective Absorptivity in Concentrated Solar Power Tower

Abstract Concentrated solar power (CSP) is a reliable renewable energy source that is progressively lowering its cost of energy. However, the heat loss due to reflected and emitted radiation hinders the maximum achievable thermal efficiency for solar receiver tubes on the solar tower. Current solar selective coatings cannot withstand the high temperatures that come with state-of-the-art CSP towers often needing to be recoated soon after initial operation. We intend to use Inconel 718 with different additive manufacturing (AM) practices to construct surfaces that allow for more light-trapping to occur. By adjusting printing parameters, we can tailor a surface to allow for more absorption while diminishing emitted radiation heat loss. By using COMSOL Multiphysics, we can generate these theoretical surfaces to emulate a printed surface, and using the coupled Multiphysics we can simulate how the surface dictates radiation properties. Our results show that by having a rougher surface we can enhance the absorptivity of Inconel 718 (IN718) by 38.8%. We expect this work to transform how solar absorber tubes are manufactured without using selective coatings and supplement the US Department of Energy (DOE) 2030 SunShot Initiative.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ka-Band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) CloudSat Calibration (KAZRARSCL-CLOUDSAT) (Value-Added Product Report)

The Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar Active Remote Sensing of CLouds CloudSat-aligned (KAZRARSCL-CLOUDSAT) Value-Added Product (VAP) applies satellite-based reflectivity calibrations to KAZRARSCL data sets. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has primarily used radar subsystem calibration monitoring to track cloud radar reflectivity drift over time, since reliable external calibration sources or other absolute references (such as corner reflectors) have historically been unavailable or impracticable. A study by Kollias et al. (2019) examined cloud reflectivity profiles observed with a well-characterized spaceborne downward-pointing millimeter cloud radar, operating as part of NASA’s CloudSat satellite mission (Tanelli et al. 2008). The Kollias team derived monthly statistical reflectivity offsets between CloudSat and the various generations of ARM cloud radars (millimeter wavelength cloud radar [MMCR], W-Band ARM Cloud Radar [WACR[, and Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar [KAZR]) for many, but not all, months at most fixed and mobile ARM sites over the period 2007-2017. These offsets, when available, are applied to the existing KAZRARSCL VAP products using the KAZRARSCL-CLOUDSAT VAP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

This final report describes the methods and results of applying Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity (SSTDR) for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants for DE-EE0008169. The project created a new system for both detecting and locating electrical faults in photovoltaic systems. In this work, we address photovoltaic electric faults that are both common and costly. Based on interviews with photovoltaic power plant owners, operators, and maintainers, three types of faults are common and of significant interest: disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults. Disconnects can originate from many sources. They are often due to everyday events, such as lawnmowing (accidentally running over a cable), animals eating through the cables, or degradation that occurs over time due to corrosion or general degradation. Ground faults occur when the cables (for example, due to frayed insolation) connect to the ground, relaying current into the ground. These faults are particularly problematic since the ground faults are often intermittent. That is, ground faults commonly appear during rain storms due to a change in soil conductivity and then disappear when the rain ends. This makes the ground fault difficult to find because while current systems can detect the overall change in voltage and current associated with a ground fault, technicians are necessary to locate the fault. As a result, ground faults may disappear before the technician arrives at the power plant. Hence, locating and fixing ground faults often require multiple trips. We also study arc faults, which can result when nearby conductors create an arc of electrical current through the air. While less common, arc faults can be extremely dangerous. The energetic electrical arc can cause fires and destroy equipment, costing significant damage. Overall all three types of faults cost owners and operators money, either from the destruction of equipment or from technician time. Furthermore, while devices exist for detecting ground faults (ground fault circuit interrupters) and arc faults (arc fault circuit interrupter), these systems only search patterns of electrical current that correspond to each fault. This information cannot be used to locate the fault. In addition, these protection systems experience nuisance trips due to nearby electromagnetic interference, such as from a lawn mower or other motors that produce significant amounts of electromagnetic radiation. Hence, the overall goal of this project is to create an SSTDR tool that provides photovoltaic power plants with more reliable fault detection in addition to the localization of faults. SSTDR works by transmitting electrical signals into the photovoltaic string. Those signals reflect from impedance discontinuities (i.e., disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults). These faults are then detected by measuring the presence of a reflection at the SSTDR and can be located by identifying the location of that reflection in time. In addition, unlike current protection systems, these systems do not experience nuisance trips since their low amplitude, high frequency, and coded signal can by analyzed without interference from the regular operational voltage on the photovoltaic string.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermocouple and RTD Drift Due to Neutron Irradiation and Temperature for Space Nuclear Applications: A Review

Temperature measurement is a key factor in the safe and reliable operation of nuclear reactors. Thermocouples and resistance temperature detectors (RTDs) are among the most common and reliable tools deployed for temperature measurement, and some are capable of operating in extreme environments such as very high temperature and neutron radiation fields anticipated in nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) or fission surface power. These devices are known to exhibit drifting behavior in their temperature readings throughout their operational lifetimes. Here, to help select appropriate instrumentation, it is important to identify the factors that influence drift as well as typical behavior in these environments. This work is focused on identifying contributing factors in the performance of thermocouples and RTDs. An extensive literature review is included that discusses several experimental results in different environments. Although individual instrument performance may vary with construction methods, materials selection, and vendors, this review aims to assist in the selection process and identify typical expected behaviors of several devices.

Chesser, Ryan J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field Emission Analysis in SRF Cavities for PIP-II Using GEANT4

Field emission (FE) remains a significant hurdle for achieving optimal performance and reliability in superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) cavities used in accelerator cryomodules. A thorough understanding of the generation and propagation of FE-induced radiation is therefore essential to mitigate this problem. The absence of standardized measurement protocols further complicates the comparison of radiation data across different testing phases and facilities. This highlights the need for a precise quantitative method to diagnose and analyze FE-induced radiation. Such efforts could prove beneficial for improving cavity preparation and cleanroom assembly techniques during the prototype and production stages of Fermilab's Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) project. This study presents the initial steps of detailed Geant4 simulations aimed at analyzing FE-induced radiation in the low-beta 650 MHz 5-cell elliptical (LB650) cavity. Our goal is to combine these results with radiation diagnostics to enhance diagnostic accuracy and optimize detector positioning. This integrated approach ultimately aims to improve the preparation, assembly, and testing procedures for PIP-II SRF cavities, ensuring the delivery of FE-free cryomodules.

Wijethunga, Sajini A.K. [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance characterization of 5×5×12 mm 3 virtual Frisch-grid TlBr detectors

Thallium bromide (TlBr) is a promising material for semiconductor gamma-ray detectors due to its high atomic number (Tl = 81, Br = 35), high density (7.56 g/cm 3 ), and relatively low melting point (460 °C). These properties give TlBr several competitive features, including high detection efficiency, good energy resolution, and lower fabrication costs, making it suitable for applications requiring compact, highly sensitive gamma-ray detection systems. Recent developments of TlBr detectors have progressed toward thicker crystals, up to 10–20 mm, configured as pixelated or virtual Frisch-grid (VFG) devices with volumes >1 cm 3 . Despite these advances, challenges remain in practical implementation, including material and fabrication issues that affect energy resolution, device stability, performance, and longevity. These challenges are similar to those faced by HgI 2 and lead-halide perovskite detectors. Here, this study presents results from characterizing over 100 position-sensitive 5×5×12 mm 3 virtual Frisch-grid detectors fabricated by Radiation Monitoring Devices Inc. For a prototype Radioisotope Identification Device (RIID). The work identified factors limiting the performance and longevity of TlBr detectors, including stochastic response variations that limit the energy resolution to 2–3 % (at 662 keV) for most devices, performance degradation associated with defect decoration, and contact delamination. Addressing these issues advances the use of TlBr and similar materials for reliable, high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗