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Panel Session 116: Waste Management from Remediation of Legacy Sites or Unplanned Releases

Past experiences have shown that there is often a disconnect between Indigenous societies and Western society. This disconnect can be attributed to different value systems between these two group and is not limited to the USA and Canada but also extends into Australia, New Zealand, and the Central Asia Republics (the 'five Stans'). The intent of this Panel Session to give voice to representatives from Indigenous communities, the challenges presented in remediation processes, and potential solutions. Standard risk assessment assumptions developed for Western societies often do not adequately address the cultural and spiritual values that may be unique to indigenous societies. This panel focused on the perspectives of Indigenous societies (e.g., Indian Tribes (US), First Nations (Canada)) related to risk assessment of environmental remediation challenges, including deep geological disposal of HLW and ILW, near-surface disposal of LLW and in-situ entombment of nuclear reactor components, and environmental remediation of abandoned uranium mines and historic wastes. Standard risk assessment assumptions often do not adequately address the cultural and spiritual values that may be unique to indigenous societies. Factoring those into a risk assessment that still meets regulatory requirements and policies such as reasonably anticipated land use at US EPA CERCLA sites can be challenging but has the potential to lead to a site or facility approach that is more accepted. Panelists with presentations: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Process - A Path for Indigenous Knowledge? (Francis Cameron); Local Community Perceptions and Remediation Projects (Michelle Roberts); Indigenous Perspectives on Risk Assessment (Bob Watts); Navajo Superfund Program: Fundamental Law and Traditional Ecological Knowledge (Dariel Yazzie); Risk Assessment: Two Indigenous Approaches (Whitney Fraser)

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Panel Session 128: Best Practices in Project Communications

This panel focused on a sustainable, holistic and integrated approach to structure nuclear waste management, disposal and remediation decisions. This panel had participation from internal and external stakeholders and demonstrate use of tools and techniques to effectively communicate factors that inform decisions. The desired outcome was to effectively communicate how risk is evaluated at complex sites, highlight holistic site level approaches that are protective of human health and the environment, and incorporate policy and technical concerns related to achieving alternative end points. This discussion included existing decision-making tools in conjunction with case studies. Panelists with presentations: Removing the Cloak of Secrecy from Legacy Cleanup at Los Alamos National Laboratory (David Nickless); Best Practice In Project Communications (Alan Paulley); Stakeholder and Public Engagement (Mark Lesinski); Stakeholder Engaged Structured Decision Making (Kelly Black)

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Panel Session 26: Risk-Based Approaches to Environmental Remediation and Adaptive Site Management

This panel discussed the needs and importance of developing risk-based approaches to environmental remediation that will enable complex sites to be adaptively managed by applying cost-effective remedies that are protective of human health and the environment. The discussion emphasized risk-based approaches within decision processes and subsequent incorporation into regulatory decision documents. Remedy approaches, remediation exit strategies, and long-term monitoring plans that support risk-based end-states for difficult-to-remediate sites were discussed Panelists with presentations: Risk-Informed Approaches to Environmental Remediation and Adaptive Site Management (Vicky Freedman); ITRC Adaptive Site Management Perspective (Michael Truex); Optimization During Operations and Maintenance Phase at the Hanford Site 200-ZP-1 Groundwater Operable Unit (Emerald Laija, Kate Amrhein, Michael Truex); Adaptive Management: EPA Overview (Benjamin Simes); Decommissioning and Environmental Remediation Section Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology (Horst Monken Fernandes)

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Panel Session 45: Savannah River National Laboratory Advancing the EM Mission Through Technology

This panel focused on Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) activities and addressed: 1) Initial development work that SRNL performed to develop the technologies and processes, as well as design the equipment for the DOE EM HLW tank waste treatment and soil and groundwater mission, 2) Implemented technology and process improvements to the EM systems, and 3) Current technologies being evaluated for future implementation to improve throughput and reduce cost/schedule. Panelists with presentations: Advancing the EM Mission: SRNL Technology Approach (Connie Herman); Nuclear Materials Management (William Bates); Adjust, Adapt, Attest, and Adjudicate (Bruce Wiersma); SRNL Research and Development for Technological Advancements in the Liquid Waste Mission at SRS (Frank Pennebaker); EM TD Applies Solutions at SRS (Andrew Fellinger); Remediation of Complex Groundwater Plumes: Three Decades of Cleanup Success (Carol Eddy-Dilek)

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Session 097B - Panel: Pathway to End State at the East Tennessee Technology Park in Oak Ridge, TN (2/4) (R1.16b)

This panel was to focus on the 'Pathway to End State at the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP)'. It was to discuss the DoE's long-term vision for the ETTP site and the process for converting the site into a multi-use industrial park, historic preservation and national park, and conservation area. The Panelists were to discuss the challenges in executing a cleanup project of this magnitude, the waste management, and the monitoring efforts that supported the achievement of the Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management (OREM) Vision 2020. This session integrated with panel sessions 97A, 97C, and 97D. Panelists with presentations: Beginning with the End in Mind (Kevin Ironside); Project Execution (Daniel Macias); Waste Management (John Wrapp); Environmental Remediation (Samantha Pack); Waste Management (Josh Pemberton); DOE's Long-Range Vision (Laura Wilkerson)

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Session 097C - Panel: Reuse of Federal Land on the Oak Ridge Reservation, TN (3/4) (R.16c)

This panel was to focus on what is being done to enable federal reuse across the DOE's Oak Ridge Reservation, including how the Community Reuse Organization of East Tennessee (CROET) plays a critical role, how the community is benefiting, and the experience of the private sector companies now occupying the site. The Panelists were to discuss how resources from the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) are being transitioned to support cleanup efforts that enable critical NNSA and Office of Science missions. This session integrated with panel sessions 97A, 97B, and 97D. Panelists with presentations: Community Reuse Organization of East Tennessee (CROET) (Ryan Overton); Community Perspective (Ron Woody); ETTP Tenant Point of View (Bradley Spears); Enabling NNSA and Office of Science Missions (Stephen Phillips); Enabling Federal Land Reuse (David Adler)

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DEM and MELT: A Modular and Compact In-Can Melting Technology Dedicated to D and D and Remediation Waste - 20033

The DEM and MELT In-Can vitrification process is designed to process intermediate and high level waste coming for D and D and remediation operations. It is developed to treat liquid and solid waste, to produce a small amount of secondary waste and to minimize investment and operating costs. This In-Can vitrification process is also developed with a compact and modular design and can be adapted regarding nuclear operators' needs and requirements. Furthermore, this robust and simple process is flexible enough to accommodate most uncertainties on waste composition. The DEM and MELT process is developed through the French consortium coordinated by CEA which gathers Orano, ECM technologies and Andra. In the frame of this project, Orano has designed a compact and modular layout of the process allowing an efficient in situ implementation, close to the waste to be treated. This paper presents the compact and modular design of the DEM and MELT process and the way it can be used for a short duration, as a decommissioning tool aimed to be dismantled just after the treatment operation. (authors)

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Overview of the Long-Term Stewardship of the Remediated Uranium Mining and Milling Sites in Europe - 20079

Uranium mining in Europe began in the ' 40's for civil and military applications. The great majority of the uranium mines have now been closed and are going through the stages of decommissioning and/or rehabilitation. Today, the main uranium producers are outside the EU; only a few mines are still in operation inside the EU. In 2006, the situation of the uranium mines and mill tailings in Europe, identifying the tailings liabilities, their status, the plans for these sites and any associated hazards, was reported to the EC. The legacy of uranium mines and mill tailing disposals in the EU are located mainly in 12 Member States where, in total, 87 tailing objects were identified at 63 sites. The volume of each one of these tailings disposal varies from a few thousand to several tens of million m{sup 3}. The majority of these sites are no longer in operation. More than 40 tailing embankments have already been completely remediated. Approximately 20 are currently being remediated while for the remaining objects, remediation has yet to start. After ten years, and for a few cases where the respective projects have not yet been completed, it seems that most of Europe's uranium mines and milling legacies were remediated according to acceptable environmental standards. Nevertheless, Europe is about to face a new challenge that comes from the concluded remediation projects for which an effective set of measures for coordinated institutional control, known as 'long-term stewardship', is needed including, in most cases, continuous and active maintenance. Moreover, the uncertainty of what will happen to these sites if institutional control fails at some point in time is a major concern. This work presents a summary of the situation and current issues of the uranium mine and mill tailings in Europe and their remediation status. It addresses not only the management of existing uranium mine and mill legacies but also the methods and strategies that have been used to prevent the creation of new future legacy sites from uranium mines still in operation. (authors)

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The TRANSCEND University Consortium: An Overview - 20106

The UK government is committed to nuclear energy having an important role in delivering a secure, low-carbon and affordable energy future. Projections indicate that between now and 2035, ∼14 GW of new nuclear generating capacity may be built. Successful delivery of this strategy recognises the need for research and development, skills development and international collaboration as key enablers. One key area is the decommissioning and clean-up of all civil nuclear licensed sites and the implementation of geological disposal of highly active wastes, with a central component being a joined-up approach to nuclear R and D across government, industry and academia which benefits the UK economy and ensures the security of supply. Essential to public acceptance of this strategy remains a demonstrable ability to safely manage and dispose of waste, with acceptance directly linked to having scientifically robust routes for its safe clean-up and disposal. There therefore remains an ongoing need for further research in the areas of decommissioning, immobilisation and management of nuclear waste, and there is significant government and stakeholder support for such research. Given the needs of both new nuclear power generation and legacy wastes, there is a requirement to develop innovative approaches to waste management and decommissioning. Following on from earlier, highly successful projects supported by UK Research and Innovation's Energy Programme, the work of the TRANSCEND (Transformative Science and Engineering for Nuclear Decommissioning) consortium is part of the response to these needs, providing support to a strong and internationally leading group of researchers in this key technology area. The consortium is a collaboration between 11 universities, supported by 8 key industry partners, with a total funding of UK Pounds 9.5 M from the UK Engineering and Physical Research Council, the universities and key project partners. The research being carried out is multidisciplinary and covers both fundamental and applied topics, with 40 research projects clustered in four technical themes: integrated waste management; site decommissioning and remediation; spent fuels; and nuclear materials. Key aims of the consortium are to extend and further develop a relevant academic skill base in the UK associated with the needs of nuclear waste management and decommissioning, to train the next generation of UK researchers, equipping them with skills and experiences relevant to nuclear waste management and decommissioning issues, and to carry out cutting-edge research that has the potential to provide new and innovative pathways to better management of both legacy and future nuclear wastes. (authors)

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Waste Management Project Success - Regulatory Assurance Systems - 20118

Waste management (WM) and remediation projects are essential within a restorative environmental culture. Despite years of experience, challenges and obstacles associated with efficient and effective WM project execution remain. Although some obstacles are project specific, a common challenge is navigating the regulatory landscape from planning through execution, particularly with first of a kind (FOAK) and first in a while (FIAW) projects. The absence of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy places significant hurdles in the path of project success. To clear a path for the successful execution of increasingly complex WM projects, this paper focuses on development of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy and implementation plan that effectively engages stakeholders, agencies, and performers to produce project plans that fully and cost effectively integrate applicable regulatory requirements. The most reliable way to align regulatory processes and decisions needed for mission success is through a regulatory assurance system. This system establishes a healthy interface with regulatory decision makers, to work in a collaborative manner, to create a common vision for regulatory decisions on an agreed upon schedule. A regulatory assurance system consists of several elements. Although the mission may vary from cleanup to site closure to nuclear component production, the elements of a regulatory assurance system remain essentially constant and must include: 1) identifying a common vision or end state, 2) developing a long-term, integrated strategy and schedule, 3) establishing a regulatory partnering team consisting of key decision-makers, 4) regular and frequent communication with decision-makers, 5) ensuring consistent surveillance for early identification of issues and changes that may impact the project, 6) quick resolution of emerging issues to prevent schedule impact, 7) identifying core compliance functions, 8) periodically assessing progress of the project as it relates to regulatory assurance and, 9) providing constructive feedback to improve the process. A regulatory assurance system provides a living, multi-faceted approach to planning, visioning, communicating and tracking to avoid surprises and ensure smooth and timely progress to the project. The overall success measures will be whether the system produces common sense regulatory decisions supporting the vision on time without appeal. Effective regulatory frameworks rarely happen on their own. Balanced, common-sense regulatory decisions stem from teams that are trained to work together to achieve shared goals. In this paper, particular attention is placed on the importance of starting with a shared vision for a regulatory assurance and execution strategy that leverages experience to establish optimal approaches. (authors)

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Improving PCM Waste Management Through New Approaches to Screening for LLW Treatment and Disposal - 20145

A major step forward in the management of Plutonium Contaminated Material (PCM) Waste has been taken at the Sellafield site with the introduction of new capabilities to enable wastes previously conservatively designated as PCM Intermediate Level Waste (ILW) to be re-classified for treatment as Low Level Waste (LLW). The Sellafield site, located in the North West of England, within the United Kingdom (UK), has operated plutonium processing plants and waste facilities for almost 70 years. During this time management of the raw PCM waste produced has presented a variety of challenges. The waste is currently processed by high force waste compaction in the Waste Treatment Complex (WTC). The WTC converts 200 litre drums of raw PCM waste into a compacted, grout encapsulated monolith form within stainless steel containment, ready for emplacement within the UK's Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) when it becomes available. To help progress some of the wastes waiting for treatment, recent improvements have been made with the introduction of new waste assay instrumentation which enables the identification of a 'candidate' waste potentially suitable for disposal via the LLW treatment route. Opening a new LLW route for previously designated PCM has been a major advance in PCM waste management policy. It has required a range of technical assessment arrangements to be developed, tested and commissioned and involved the engagement of a wide range of stakeholders. In particular, very detailed technical analysis methods have been developed to ensure that there is a robust and conservative approach to the final sentencing of waste. Following completion of commissioning tests, the first 86 m{sup 3} of previously designated PCM waste was successfully treated through the LLW route and consigned to LLW disposal in June 2019. The direct benefit of sentencing waste to the correct waste route (LLW) is the significant cost savings across the complete range of waste management activities. This work is also strategically important for demonstrating to a range of stakeholders including workforce and regulators, that waste previously designated as PCM can be re-classified in a systematic and justifiable way without increasing risk to personnel or the wider environment. By ensuring that waste is being managed appropriately it will be possible to carry out more remediation work safely, in less time, and at a lower cost. (authors)

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Development of a Convolutional Neural Network Classifier for Data Starved Spectra - 20199

The Institute for Clean Energy Technology (ICET) at Mississippi State University is exploring the utility of machine learning in augmenting its mobile radiation surveying platforms, which are currently being developed as means to survey depleted uranium contaminated areas in support of remediation and decommissioning efforts. Mobile survey platforms provide a means to efficiently scan large areas of interest while reducing human exposure to radiation and other hazards. The survey platforms can also be used for scanning for any gamma emitting isotope in addition to depleted uranium. The spectral data that the platforms collect may be data starved with relatively low counts and poorly defined spectral features depending on the speed of the platforms and scintillation detector selection. Such data-starved spectra are difficult to use for isotope identification, requiring advanced knowledge of the possible radionuclides that could be present and environmental factors that could attenuate signals or introduce background noise. These factors in combination with the volume of survey data increases the time it takes to perform analysis of survey data when the source type is unknown. There are a number of algorithms in the field of machine learning that can be used to classify data that would be challenging and time-consuming for a human to identify. Supervised machine learning algorithms train models based on extensive amounts of human-labeled training data. Once sufficiently trained, these models can be used to quickly make high-fidelity predictions on new data. Convolutional neural networks are machine learning algorithms that excel in learning representations of 'shapes'. They do this by taking numerical input data and convolving them with spatial feature detectors referred to as filters. These filters are incrementally adjusted to reduce the prediction error on the data during the backpropagation step of training. Discussed in this paper is the development of a convolutional neural network classifier (CNNC) that can utilize spectral survey data for source discrimination and isotope identification. Bench-top laboratory experiments data using LaBr{sub 3}(Ce) scintillation detectors were used to train and evaluate the performance of the developed CNNC. The CNNC is capable of discriminating a variety of gamma emitting source types, differentiating different forms of uranium (depleted vs. natural), and estimating the amount of uranium for a known geometry. The discussed CNNC may be useful in scenarios where survey systems are deployed in situations where hazardous radioactive material maybe present, but the type is unknown. When used in remediation applications the CNNC can be used to screen-out false positives, helping reduce remediation costs. (authors)

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Chemical-Biological Cyclic Process for Hexavalent Chromium Reduction to Trivalent Chromium in Aqueous Medium - 20224

Conventional treatment of chromium contamination focuses on immobilization of the highly toxic and water-soluble form Cr(VI), by reducing it to the relatively less toxic and less mobile trivalent form, Cr(III), using reducing compounds like ferrous sulfate or ferrous iron, Fe(II). The Cr(VI) also respond to biodegradation and subsequent reduction. During the reduction reaction, Fe(II) is oxidized to ferric, Fe(III), which, being at the highest oxidation state, has no ability to reduce Cr(VI), and therefore remediation process terminates. The good news is that metal-reducing bacteria, S. oneidensis MR-1, can regenerate Fe(II) from Fe(III) with the help of an organic electron donor in an appropriate bacterial media. Thus, in the Cr(VI) chemical remediation process, Fe(II) to Fe(III) conversion is reversed by the biological process, regenerating Fe(II) and the Cr(VI) chemical reduction process continues in a cyclic fashion. This study presents the results of regeneration of Fe(II) from fresh Fe(III) as well as from the reaction products of Cr(VI) and Fe(II). Both fresh Fe(III) and reaction product Fe(III) exhibited the same reduction behavior. Fe(II) production increased with the increase of initial concentration of Fe(III), resulting in 87.5% Fe(II) regeneration. The extent of Fe(III) reduction (Fe(II)t/Fe(III)0.hour) was 21 times higher than the extent of Cr(VI) reduction (Cr(VI)t/Cr(VI)0.hour) by S. oneidensis MR-1. In a cyclic process of sequential Cr(VI) addition, the amount of Fe(II) regeneration decreased with the increase in cycle number, a fixed quantity of starting S. oneidensis MR-1 could regenerate Fe(II) at least five times in a ten-hour period. More importantly, regenerated Fe(II) instantly reduced Cr(VI) to Cr(III). So, Fe(II) regeneration with metal-reducing bacteria has a good potential for application in groundwater and wastewater remediation in reducing Cr(VI) to Cr(III). As a comparison of chemical to biological transformation, chemical transformation of Cr(VI) by Fe(II) was almost 600 times greater than that of biological transformation. Therefore a chemical-biological cyclic process offers potential applications for remediation of groundwater and hexavalent chromium contaminated waste sites. (authors)

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The TRANSCEND University Consortium: Theme 2 - Site Decommissioning, Deconstruction and Remediation - 20329

This paper will discuss the aims, objectives and progress to-date under Theme 2 of the TRANSCEND consortium project: Site decommissioning, deconstruction and remediation. Decommissioning nuclear sites involves waste retrieval, decontamination, deconstruction and, where necessary, containment and/or remediation of the remaining structure and surrounding land. Critical to management of these processes is limiting radiation exposure for the workforce, restricting the spread of radionuclides in groundwater, surface water and airborne particulates, and minimising the volume of contaminated waste for disposal. The aim of Theme 2 research is to develop new technologies for monitoring, remediation and containment that serve to minimise the volume of radioactively contaminated waste for disposal, for application prior to, during and after retrieval, deconstruction and decontamination operations. Prior research, conducted under the previous DISTINCTIVE project, demonstrated that colloidal silica grout can penetrate low permeability materials (including cement) for hydraulic barrier formation, and improved sorption capacity. The silica grout can be injected at surface using extremely small (potentially gravity-driven) fluid pressures, without the need for borehole drilling. Current work is investigating the erodibility of silica-grouted soils for inhibition of airborne and water-borne particulates as well as enhancing the grout's sorption capacity by addition of other materials to provide a chemical, as well as hydraulic, barrier to subsurface migration. EK remediation uses low voltage DC current to control migration of contaminants in porous media as well as to remove or degrade them. Researchers in the consortium have already demonstrated that low-energy ex-situ EK techniques can be used to provide remediation and volume minimisation for AWE legacy wastes in the UK. Under the current project researchers are building EK test cells containing simulated site materials at laboratory and intermediate(m)-scales to: remove, focus or degrade contaminants (remediation or waste minimisation); and direct subsurface water, chemical and colloid flow (fencing/containment or forced migration). This lab-based research is being informed by numerical models of EK processes that can subsequently be used to design full-scale on-site applications by nuclear site holders. Research under theme 2 of TRANSCEND will ultimately combine novel non-invasive detection technologies with EK techniques and colloidal silica grout barriers, to optimise the containment of radionuclide contamination in soils. Thus, allowing us to detect in-situ contamination, mobilise it to a selected location and grout it in-situ, prior to the initiation of decommissioning and deconstruction operations. (authors)

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US EPA Superfund Radon Vapor Intrusion Screening Level (RVISL) Electronic Calculator - 20340

Currently, there is no U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidance on correlating soil or groundwater levels of radon with indoor radon concentrations at Superfund sites. EPA is developing the Radon Vapor Intrusion Level Calculator (RVISL) Calculator which is an online tool. The RVISL calculator: (1) lists three radon isotopes (Rn-219, Rn-220 and Rn-222) known to pose a potential cancer risk through the inhalation pathway; (2) provides generally recommended risk and Applicable or Relevant and Appropriate Requirements (ARAR) based preliminary remediation goals (PRG) for groundwater, soil gas (exterior to buildings and sub-slab) and indoor air for default target risk and ARAR based levels and exposure scenarios; and (3) allows calculation of site-specific PRGs based on user-defined target risk and ARAR based levels and exposure scenarios. EPA developed the RVISL calculator to help risk assessors, remedial project managers, and others involved with risk assessment and decision making at radioactively contaminated sites. (authors)

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Evaluating Remediation Options for a Perched-Water Unit at the Hanford Site - 20378

At the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site, liquid-phase waste was discharged using surface disposal features such as ponds, trenches, and cribs. These practices distributed contaminants in the subsurface, some of which are currently in the vadose zone above the groundwater. At the 200-DV-1 operable unit (OU) at the Hanford Site, a key feature is a perched-water zone. This perched-water zone contains several million liters of water contaminated with high concentrations of uranium, technetium-99 (Tc-99), and nitrate that serves as a continuing source of contamination to the underlying aquifer. Currently, a pumping system is used to remove contaminant mass from the perched-water zone. However, water extraction will become more challenging as the perched unit dewaters. As a result, residual contaminants remaining after pumping is no longer effective needs to be addressed with post-extraction mitigation approaches, appropriate monitoring, and selection of suitable remediation endpoints. Thus, a remedy evaluation needs to include the unique conditions of this perched-water zone. As part of the initial evaluation, a set of technologies have been preliminarily identified as potentially applicable to the perched-water zone, including in situ remediation technologies to sequester uranium and Tc-99 and to degrade nitrate. While there is sufficient information available for direct consideration of some of the reviewed technologies in a feasibility study, five in situ remediation technologies were identified as needing additional information on their effectiveness under the geochemical and contaminant conditions of the perched-water zone. (authors)

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Novel Remediation of Mercury-Contaminated Sediments Using Manganese Oxide and Activated Carbon Amendments - 20394

Mercury contamination in sediments poses a challenging remediation problem because of its ability to biogeochemically cycle and biomagnify in the food chain as methylmercury from low resident sediment and porewater concentrations. One mitigation approach is to lower the overall rate of net methylmercury production by creating conditions unfavorable for sulfate and iron reduction or methanogenesis, the primary pathways for methylation of inorganic mercury. Manganese oxides and other redox-active amendments are a promising and novel in situ amendment technology aimed at reducing net methylation of mercury though control of redox conditions in mercury-contaminated sediment-water systems. This paper reviews the thermodynamic and kinetic framework for this remediation technology, presents experimental and spectroscopic data illustrating the approach using solid manganese oxides, and discusses potential advantages, disadvantages, and applications. (authors)

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Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

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