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At least 127 records · Page 7

Optimal Scales for Comparing Satellite and Rain-Gauge Rainfall Estimates for Verification Purposes

In spite of all their problems, rain gauges measure rainfall in such a direct way when compared with other methods of estimating rainfall that comparing their totals to satellite estimates remains an essential tool in the validation of satellite products. Some disagreement between averages of satellite data and rain-gauge data is expected because of the very different sampling patterns of the two systems--the satellite provides only occasional snapshots of large areas, whereas rain gauges provide continuous measurements over very small areas. The comparison of the two requires that some quantitative measure be supplied for the amount of disagreement that can be tolerated due to the differences in sampling. As part of an effort to determine the sampling error of satellite averages, a space-time model for rainfall statistics was developed and its parameters fit to radar data from a field experiment conducted near the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the eastern Atlantic (GATE). Although the model was intended to represent the statistics of relatively large scale fluctuations of rain, it is surprisingly consistent with the very different scales on which rain gauges observe. It can therefore be used to study some of the issues involved with comparing rain-gauge averages to satellite averages. Its implications for the best time and space scales for comparing the two will be discussed.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

Estimating the Uncertainty in Passive-Microwave Rain-Retrievals

Current passive-microwave rain-retrieval methods are largely based on databases built off-line using cloud models. The vertical distribution of hydrometeors within the cloud has a large impact on upwelling brightness temperatures ([31,[5]). Thus, a forward radiative transfer model can predict off-line the radiance associated with different rain scenarios. To estimate the rain from measured brightness temperatures, one simply looks for the rain scenario whose associated radiances are closest to the measurements. To understand the uncertainties in this process, we first study the dependence of the simulated brightness temperatures on different hydrometeor size distribution (DSD) models. We then analyze the marginal and joint distributions of the radiances observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and of those in the databases used in the TRMM rain retrievals. We finally calculate the covariances of the rain profiles and brightness temperatures in the TRMM passive-microwave database and derive a simple parametric model for the conditional uncertainty, given measured radiances. These results are used to characterize the uncertainty inherent in the passive-microwave retrieval.

Coppens, Dorothee↗

TRMM Observations of Polarization Difference in 85 GHz: Information About Hydrometeors and Rain Rate

Observations made by the Precipitation Radar (PR) and the Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite help us to show the significance of the 85 GHz polarization difference, PD85, measured by TMI. Rain type, convective or stratiform, deduced from the PR allows us to infer that PD85 is generally positive in stratiform rain clouds, while PD85 can be markedly negative in deep convective rain clouds. Furthermore, PD85 increases in a gross manner as stratiform rain rate increases. On the contrary, in a crude fashion PD85 decreases as convective rain rate increases. From the observations of TMI and PR, we find that PD85 is a weak indicator of rain rate. Utilizing information from existing polarimetric radar studies, we infer that negative values of PD85 are likely associated with vertically-oriented small oblate or wet hail that are found in deep convective updrafts.

Prabhakara, C.↗

On Utilization of NEXRAD Scan Strategy Information to Infer Discrepancies Associated With Radar and Rain Gauge Surface Volumetric Rainfall Accumulations

To evaluate the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) monthly Ground Validation (GV) rain map, 42 quality controlled tipping bucket rain gauge data (1 minute interpolated rain rates) were utilized. We have compared the gauge data to the surface volumetric rainfall accumulation of NEXRAD reflectivity field, (converting to rain rates using a 0.5 dB resolution smooth Z-R table). The comparison was carried out from data collected at Melbourne, Florida during the month of July 98. GV operational level 3 (L3 monthly) accumulation algorithm was used to obtain surface volumetric accumulations for the radar. The gauge records were accumulated using the 1 minute interpolated rain rates while the radar Volume Scan (VOS) intervals remain less than or equal to 75 minutes. The correlation coefficient for the radar and gauge totals for the monthly time-scale remain at 0.93, however, a large difference was noted between the gauge and radar derived rain accumulation when the radar data interval is either 9 minute, or 10 minute. This difference in radar and gauge accumulation is being explained in terms of the radar scan strategy information. The discrepancy in terms of the Volume Coverage Pattern (VCP) of the NEXRAD is being reported where VCP mode is ascertained using the radar tilt angle information. Hourly radar and gauge accumulations have been computed using the present operational L3 method supplemented with a threshold period of +/- 5 minutes (based on a sensitivity analysis). These radar and gauge accumulations are subsequently improved using a radar hourly scan weighting factor (taking ratio of the radar scan frequency within a time bin to the 7436 total radar scans for the month). This GV procedure is further being improved by introducing a spatial smoothing method to yield reasonable bulk radar to gauge ratio for the hourly and daily scales.

Roy, Biswadev↗

Optimal Strategies for Validating TRMM Rainfall Estimates with Rain-Gauge Data

In spite of all their problems, rain gauges measure rainfall in such a direct way when compared with other methods of estimating rainfall that comparing their totals to satellite estimates remains an essential tool in the validation of satellite products. Some disagreement between averages of satellite data and rain-gauge data is expected because of the very different sampling patterns of the two systems--the satellite provides only occasional snapshots of large areas, whereas rain gauges provide continuous measurements over very small areas. A quantitative estimate of the expected level of disagreement due to the differences in sampling is needed in order for comparisons of the two kinds of averages to be informative. As part of an earlier effort to determine the sampling error of satellite averages, a space-time model for rainfall statistics was developed. Sets of parameter values for the model have been obtained for which the model statistics are found to agree quite well with those of radar data taken over the Atlantic during GATE and the western Pacific during TOGA COARE. Although the model was intended to represent the statistics of relatively large scale fluctuations of rain, it is surprisingly consistent with the very different scales on which rain gauges observe. Implications for maximizing the benefit in comparisons of rain gauge averages and TRMM estimates are derived using the model predictions.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

Regional Variability in Convection and Rain Retrievals from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI)

Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite shows that the average height of 30 dBz in convective rain areas of the tropics varies significantly from one region to the other. When the convection is weak this height is shallow and when convection is strong this height extends deeper into the troposphere. The brightness temperature (Tb) measured by the microwave radiometer by itself does not reflect this nature of convection satisfactorily. Radiative transfer simulations of Tbs reveal that this could be due to the variations in the vertical distribution of optically active water and ice hydrometeors and their density, shape, and size. These variations are not coupled uniquely to the strength of the convective updrafts, and as a result the Tbs do not reflect properly the convective strength indicated by PR. Because of this deficiency in the Tbs the rain rate deduced from them differs from that of PR. For this reason, to improve the estimation of rain rate we have developed an empirical method. In this method a parameter based on the areal extent of the Tbs that exceed a certain magnitude is included along with the Tbs. Rain rate deduced with this approach is better correlated with that of PR when compared to the current Version 5 operational algorithm. The percentage of rain volume as a function of rain rate, for a given region of 5deg lat. X 5deg long. over a period of three months, deduced from this method, is also in better agreement with that of the PR.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Chiu, J. Christine↗

Distributed Disdrometer and Rain Gauge Measurement Infrastructure Developed for GPM Ground Validation

Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)retrieval algorithm validation requires datasets characterizing the 4-D structure, variability, and correlation properties of hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSD) and accumulations over satellite fields of view (FOV;<10 km). Collection of this data provides a means to assess retrieval errors related to beam filling and algorithm PSD assumptions. Hence, GPM Ground Validation is developing a deployable network of precipitation gauges and disdrometers to provide fine-scale measurements of PSD and precipitation accumulation variability. These observations will be combined with dual-frequency, polarimetric, and profiling radar data in a bootstrapping fashion to extend validated PSD measurements to a large coverage domain. Accordingly, a total of 24 Parsivel disdrometers(PD), 5 3rd-generation 2D Video Disdrometers (2DVD), 70 tipping bucket rain gauges (TBRG),9 weighing gauges, 7 Hot-Plate precipitation sensors (HP), and 3 Micro Rain Radars (MRR) have been procured. In liquid precipitation the suite of TBRG, PD and 2DVD instruments will quantify a broad spectrum of rain rate and PSD variability at sub-kilometer scales. In the envisioned network configuration 5 2DVDs will act as reference points for 16 collocated PD and TBRG measurements. We find that PD measurements provide similar measures of the rain PSD as observed with collocated 2DVDs (e.g., D0, Nw) for rain rates less than 15 mm/hr. For heavier rain rates we will rely on 2DVDs for PSD information. For snowfall we will combine point-redundant observations of SWER distributed over three or more locations within a FOV. Each location will contain at least one fenced weighing gauge, one HP, two PDs, and a 2DVD. MRRs will also be located at each site to extend the measurement to the column. By collecting SWER measurements using different instrument types that employ different measurement techniques our objective is to separate measurement uncertainty from natural variability in SWER and PSD. As demonstrated using C3VP polarimetric radar, gauge, and 2DVD/PD datasets these measurements can be combined to bootstrap an area wide SWER estimate via constrained modification of density-diameter and radar reflectivity-snowfall relationships. These data will be combined with snowpack, airborne microphysics, radar, radiometer, and tropospheric sounding data to refine GPM snowfall retrievals. The gauge and disdrometer instruments are being developed to operate autonomously when necessary using solar power and wireless communications. These systems will be deployed in numerous field campaigns through 2016. Planned deployment of these systems include field campaigns in Finland (2010), Oklahoma (2011), Canada (2012) and North Carolina (2013). GPM will also deploy 20 pairs of TBRGs within a 25 km2 region along the Virginia coast under NASA NPOL radar coverage in order to quantify errors in point-area rainfall measurements.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

Statistical Approaches for the Definition of Landslide Rainfall Thresholds and their Uncertainty Using Rain Gauge and Satellite Data

Models for forecasting rainfall-induced landslides are mostly based on the identification of empirical rainfall thresholds obtained exploiting rain gauge data. Despite their increased availability, satellite rainfall estimates are scarcely used for this purpose. Satellite data should be useful in ungauged and remote areas, or should provide a significant spatial and temporal reference in gauged areas. In this paper, the analysis of the reliability of rainfall thresholds based on rainfall remote sensed and rain gauge data for the prediction of landslide occurrence is carried out. To date, the estimation of the uncertainty associated with the empirical rainfall thresholds is mostly based on a bootstrap resampling of the rainfall duration and the cumulated event rainfall pairs (D,E) characterizing rainfall events responsible for past failures. This estimation does not consider the measurement uncertainty associated with D and E. In the paper, we propose (i) a new automated procedure to reconstruct ED conditions responsible for the landslide triggering and their uncertainties, and (ii) three new methods to identify rainfall threshold for the possible landslide occurrence, exploiting rain gauge and satellite data. In particular, the proposed methods are based on Least Square (LS), Quantile Regression (QR) and Nonlinear Least Square (NLS) statistical approaches. We applied the new procedure and methods to define empirical rainfall thresholds and their associated uncertainties in the Umbria region (central Italy) using both rain-gauge measurements and satellite estimates. We finally validated the thresholds and tested the effectiveness of the different threshold definition methods with independent landslide information. The NLS method among the others performed better in calculating thresholds in the full range of rainfall durations. We found that the thresholds obtained from satellite data are lower than those obtained from rain gauge measurements. This is in agreement with the literature, where satellite rainfall data underestimate the 'ground' rainfall registered by rain gauges.

landslide prediction↗

Evolution of Drop Size Distributions during Hurricane Harvey and Their Effects on Rain Intensity

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017, before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding over southeast Texas with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain. The Houston NEXRAD radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event and is utilized in this study to better understand the evolution of the drop size distribution (DSD) in the lower (liquid) portions of the storm and how changes in the DSD were tied to observed and measured changes in rain intensities. From the KHGX dual-polarimetric radar data several DSD parameters were retrieved, including three different rain rate retrievals, as well as the mass-weighted mean-drop diameter Dm, and the normalized intercept parameter NW of the gamma distribution. Two of the rain retrievals are popular hybrid approaches, where reflectivity, differential and specific differential phase are used. The other is an attenuation-based retrieval. In a previous study, it was found that both hybrid retrievals significantly underestimated the rainfall during the heaviest rain periods, while the attenuation-based retrieval, with proper adjustment, agreed quite well with a large network of gauges from the Harris County Flood Warning System. Using Dm and NW as proxies for drop size and concentration, respectively, we will show that the heaviest rain intensities were associated in areas of the storm where there was a large concentration of large drops present. It is envisaged that results of this study can be used to develop a near-real-time tuning of the attenuation-based retrieval, thus providing timely, and possibly life-saving warnings during inundating rainfall.

David B. Wolff↗

Limitations of Separate Cloud and Rain Categories in Parameterizing Collision-Coalescence for Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Warm rain collision-coalescence has been persistently difficult to parameterize in bulk microphysics schemes. We use a flexible bulk microphysics scheme with bin scheme process parameterizations, called AMP, to investigate reasons for the difficulty. AMP is configured in a variety of ways to mimic bulk schemes and is compared to simulations with the bin scheme upon which AMP is built. We find that an important limitation in traditional bulk schemes is the use of separate cloud and rain categories. When the drop size distribution is instead represented by a continuous distribution, the simulation of cloud-to-rain conversion is substantially improved. We also find large sensitivity to the threshold size to distinguish cloud and rain in traditional schemes; substantial improvement is found by decreasing the threshold from 40 to 25 μm. Neither the use of an assumed functional form for the size distribution nor the choice of predicted distribution moments has a large impact on the ability of AMP to simulate rain production. When predicting four total moments of the liquid drop size distribution, either with a traditional two-category, two-moment scheme with a reduced size threshold, or a four-moment single-category scheme, errors in the evolution of mass and the cloud size distribution are similar, but the single-category scheme has a substantially better representation of the rain size distribution. Optimal moment combinations for the single-category approach are investigated and appear to be linked more to the information content they provide for constraining the size distributions than to their correlation with collision-coalescence rates.

autoconversion↗

Validation of Rain Rate Retrievals for the Airborne Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

On board of the NASA's Global Hawk (AV1) aircraft there are two microwave, namely: the passive microwave Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), and the active microwave High-altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP). This paper presents results from an unplanned rain rate measurement validation opportunity that occurred in 2013, when the Global Hawk aircraft flew over an intense tropical squall-line that was simultaneously observed, by the Tampa NEXRAD meteorological radar. During this experiment, Global Hawk flying at an altitude of 18 km made 3 passes over the rapidly propagating thunderstorm, while the TAMPA NEXRAD perform volume scans on a 5-minute interval. NEXRAD 2D images of rain rate (mm/hr) were obtained at two altitudes (3 km & 6 km), which serve as surface truth for the HIRAD rain rate retrievals. In this paper, results are presented of the three-way inter-comparison of HIRAD Tb, HIWRAP dbZ and NEXRAD rain rate imagery.

HIRAD↗

Multiple Sources of Riparian Wetland Suspended Solids during Episodic Rain Events: Influence on Uranium Transport

Suspended solids can be the primary vector for transporting contaminants in streams. The objective of this study was to determine whether changes in the properties of suspended solids during rain events impacted contaminant transport. Stream water was collected during five episodic events downstream from a U-contaminated wetland located in South Carolina, USA. The suspended particles were initially composed of Fe-flocs (particles formed in situ prior to the rain event) that had significantly greater Fe, Mn, organic-C, and U content than particles collected later during a sampling rain event. XANES and EXAFS revealed that U in the Fe-flocs was U(VI) and that it was not incorporated in a mineral structure but existed as inner- or outer-sphere adsorbed uranyl species associated with organic matter and Fe-oxides. The uranyl had an extraordinarily high affinity for the suspended solids, with solid to liquid U ratios of >72,000 (μg/kg)/(μg/L). After the initial flush of Fe-flocs, a greater fraction of the suspended solids had lower organic-C, Fe, Mn, and amorphous phases and were composed of more quartz, kaolinite, and gibbsite, resulting in lower U concentrations than those in the solids collected earlier in the rain event. This study highlights the importance of understanding suspended solids as transport vectors and their potential dynamic nature during rain events.

computer simulations↗

Divergent responses of historic rain-on-snow flood extremes to a warmer climate

Global warming is altering flood risks induced by rain-on-snow events. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how rain-on-snow induced extreme floods could be altered with warming. Here, storyline analyses using a kilometer-scale land surface model reveal diverse responses of four historically-impactful, decision-relevant rain-on-snow induced extreme flood events over the contiguous U.S. to warming, due to alterations in their water budgets. For the 2017-Feb California floods, runoff first increases and then decreases with warming, peaking under the +3 K scenario, while runoff of the 2017-Jan California floods increases monotonically by ~53%/K. Contrastingly, runoff of the 1996-Jan Mid-Atlantic floods decreases gradually with warming. Despite these differences, warming generally shifts flood-generating regimes along elevation profiles. High elevations could experience notably increased runoff, while low elevations encounter a shift from rain-on-snow-driven to rainfall-dominated runoff. These findings underscore the need for flood control planning to quantify region- and elevation-specific changes in rain-on-snow events in a warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Weak influence of anthropogenic emissions on aerosol, cloud, and rain in the wet season of the Amazon rainforest

Anthropogenic emissions have been shown to affect new particle formation, aerosol concentrations, and clouds. Such effects vary with region, environmental conditions, and cloud types. In the wet season of Amazonia, anthropogenic emissions emitted from Manaus, Brazil, can significantly increase the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations compared to the background of mainly natural aerosols. However, the regional response of cloud and rain to anthropogenic emissions in Amazonia remains very uncertain. Here, we aim to quantify how aerosol concentration, cloud, and rain respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions through parameterized new particle formation and primary aerosol emission in the Manaus region and to understand the underlying mechanisms. We ran the atmosphere-only configuration of the HadGEM3 climate model with a nested regional domain that covers most of the rainforest region (720 km by 1200 km with 3 km resolution) under scaled regional emissions. The 7 d simulations show that, in the areas that are affected by anthropogenic emissions, when aerosol and precursor gas emissions are doubled from the baseline emission inventories, aerosol number concentrations increase by 13 %. The nucleation rate that involves sulfuric acid and biogenic compounds generally increases with pollution levels. However, nucleation is suppressed very close to the pollution source, resulting in lower nucleation and soluble Aitken mode aerosol number concentrations. We also found that doubling the anthropogenic emission can increase the cloud droplet number concentrations ( N d ) by 9 %, but cloud water and rain mass mixing ratios do not change significantly. Even very strong reductions in aerosol number concentrations by a factor of 4, which is an unrealistic condition, cause only a 4 % increase in rain over the domain. If we assume our simulation has a fine enough grid resolution and an accurate representation of the relevant atmospheric processes, the simulated weak and non-linear response of cloud and rain properties to linearly scaled anthropogenic emissions suggests that the interactions among aerosol, cloud, and precipitation in the Amazonian convective environment are buffered by microphysical processes. It also implies that the convective environment is resilient to the changes in Nd that occur in response to localized anthropogenic aerosol perturbations.

Wang, Xuemei [University of Leeds (United Kingdom)↗

The effect of heavy rain on windshear attributed accidents

In recent years several commercial aircraft accidents have occurred as an aircraft attempted landing in a thunderstorm cell. The horizontal and vertical windshear associated with the cell have been identified as the factors responsible for the accident. In addition to the wind shear encounter, several of these aircraft simultaneously penetrated a heavy rain cell. Heavy rain affects the aircraft by imparting a momentum penalty, and a drag penalty, due to the rain roughening of the airfoil. These penalties have been evaluated by a computer model that, when incorporated with a landing simulation program, was used to assess the relative influence of heavy rain versus wind shear. Using this model, an assessment was made of the influence of heavy rain on several wind shear attributed accidents.

Luers, J. K.↗