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DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing analytical merits of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy of hydrogen isotopes using an orthogonal double-pulsing scheme

Accurate detection and quantification of hydrogen isotopes in solid materials are vital for diverse applications, including fusion energy, hydrogen storage, and tritium production. Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a well established, rapid, standoff method for this purpose, but it faces challenges related to the analytical merits required for isotopic analyses. In this study, we enhance the analytical and detection capabilities of traditional single-pulse LIBS by implementing an orthogonal double pulsing approach, focusing on the analysis of a range of 2 H concentrations in Zircaloy-4 substrates (acting as a proxy for 3 H). The double-pulse experiments employed an orthogonal re-heating configuration with two nanosecond Nd:YAG lasers. We systematically evaluated critical parameters affecting the signal intensity in double-pulse LIBS, including interpulse delay, ambient gas pressure, and heating laser energy. Finally, our results demonstrate that employing an orthogonal double-pulse scheme significantly enhances 2 H α emission while minimizing line broadening and self-absorption, ultimately improving the technique’s analytical capabilities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electrochemical quantification of phosphonic acid passivated surface sites of NiO x for perovskite solar cells

Nickel oxide (NiO x ) is among the few p-type metal oxide semiconductors considered a strong candidate for hole transport layers in halide perovskite solar cells (PSCs). However, its reactivity with perovskite ions poses significant challenges to achieving high efficiency and long-term stability. Here, we investigate passivation of detrimental reactive surface sites on NiO x by carbazole phosphonic acids. We leverage electrochemical cyclic voltammetry (CV) of NiO x electrodes as a proxy measure for the redox activity that afflicts PSCs. From the CVs, we derive a metric, N (units cm −2 ), that relates to the number of redox active sites on NiO x surfaces. We observe a statistically significant negative correlation between PSC efficiency and N-value that indicates PSCs are more efficient on NiO x with lower electrochemical reactivity. The new mechanistic insight into NiO x passivation demonstrates it requires a reducing agent and Brønsted acid combination, providing a broadly applicable approach for evaluating and enhancing the stability and performance of NiO x -based interfaces in photovoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs: Preprint

Subsurface data analysis, reservoir modeling, and machine learning (ML) techniques have been applied to the Brady Hot Springs (BHS) geothermal field in Nevada, USA to further characterize the subsurface and assist with optimizing reservoir management. Hundreds of reservoir simulations have been conducted in TETRAD-G and CMG STARS to explore different injection and production fluid flow rates and allocations and to develop a training data set for ML. This process included simulating the historical injection and production since 1979 and prediction of future performance through 2040. ML networks were created and trained using TensorFlow based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures. These networks took as input selected flow rates, injection temperatures, and historical field operation data and produced estimates of future production temperatures. This approach was first successfully tested on a simplified single fracture doublet system, followed by the application to the BHS reservoir. Using an initial BHS dataset with 37 simulated scenarios, the trained and validated network predicted the production temperature for 6 production wells with the mean absolute percentage error of less than 8%. In a complementary analysis effort, the principal component analysis applied to 13 BHS geological parameters revealed that vertical fracture permeability shows the strongest correlation with fault density and fault intersection density. A new BHS reservoir model was developed considering the fault intersection density as proxy for permeability. This new reservoir model helps to explore under-exploited zones in the reservoir. A data gathering plan to obtain additional subsurface data was developed; it includes temperature surveying for three idle injection wells, at which the reservoir simulations indicate high bottom-hole temperatures. The collected data assist with calibrating the reservoir model and may lead to converting these wells to producers to access under-exploited zones in the reservoir. Data gathering activities are planned for the first quarter of 2021.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards multi-fidelity deep learning of wind turbine wakes

We report engineering wake models that accurately predict wake in a computationally efficient manner are very important for tasks such as layout optimization and control of wind farms. In this paper, we explore an application of deep learning (DL) to learn the wake model from hierarchies of physics-based approaches ranging from analytical models to an approximate form of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We first illustrate the application of principal component analysis to obtain a lower-dimensional representation that allows a computationally tractable training and deployment of DL models. Then, the DL model is trained to learn the mapping from input parameter space to the principal components, which are then used to reconstruct the three-dimensional flow field. Additionally, we investigate a composite framework consisting of two neural networks to learn the correlation between low- and high-fidelity data with Gauss and curl models treated as proxies for low- and high-fidelity models, respectively. The prediction from both DL models matches well with the high-fidelity data with a maximum relative percentage error for the kinetic energy flux of <1%. This work opens up possibilities for data-efficient construction of surrogate models for wake prediction that can be used to study the influence of wind speed and yaw angles on wind farm power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers

Abstract The hydrologic cycle is a fundamental component of the climate system with critical societal and ecological relevance. Yet gaps persist in our understanding of water fluxes and their response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. The stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in water provide a unique opportunity to evaluate hydrological processes and investigate their role in the variability of the climate system and its sensitivity to change. Water isotopes also form the basis of many paleoclimate proxies in a variety of archives, including ice cores, lake and marine sediments, corals, and speleothems. These records hold most of the available information about past hydrologic variability prior to instrumental observations. Water isotopes thus provide a ‘common currency’ that links paleoclimate archives to modern observations, allowing us to evaluate hydrologic processes and their effects on climate variability on a wide range of time and length scales. Building on previous literature summarizing advancements in water isotopic measurements and modeling and describe water isotopic applications for understanding hydrological processes, this topical review reflects on new insights about climate variability from isotopic studies. We highlight new work and opportunities to enhance our understanding and predictive skill and offer a set of recommendations to advance observational and model-based tools for climate research. Finally, we highlight opportunities to better constrain climate sensitivity and identify anthropogenically-driven hydrologic changes within the inherently noisy background of natural climate variability.

Dee, Sylvia (ORCID:000000022140785X)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Embedding Potential Optimization by Reconstructing the Pseudo-Valence Electron Density

Density functional embedding theory (DFET) enables use of electronic structure methods with higher accuracy than density functional theory in a local region, with applications thus far ranging from (photo/electro)catalysis to reactions in solution. DFET partitions a large collection of atoms into smaller groups that interact via a shared embedding (interaction) potential V emb , determined via functional optimization. The optimized effective potential (OEP) process used to optimize V emb is time-consuming and becomes a computational bottleneck due to sharp, oscillating features of V emb near nuclei. Here, similar to pseudopotential theory, by reconstructing electron densities used in the OEP process from smoother pseudo-valence-only (PVO) electron densities as proxies for total densities of the full system and subsystems, we can retain accuracy in the embedded electronic structure calculations while potentially reducing the overhead of V emb construction, within the projector augmented-wave (PAW) formalism. We explore three different chemical reactions as exemplars to test PVO–DFET, namely, H 2 dissociative adsorption on a Cu(111) surface, H 2 O adsorption on a Pt(111) surface, and aqueous [Ca 2+ –SO 4 2– ] ion-pair formation. The PVO approximation works well for all three systems with minimal loss of accuracy (∼10–70 meV error relative to the original exact-derivative (ED) approach) while accelerating V emb generation for the Cu and Pt systems respectively by 20× and 5×. Given proper numerical convergence parameters, the spatial distributions of differences between PVO- and ED-based V emb outside the core regions are small, explaining the exceptional agreement between the two approaches. Finally, we anticipate that this more efficient PVO–DFET approximation will be useful whenever computation of V emb is much more expensive than subsequent embedded high-level electron correlation calculations.

approximation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accurate model of the projected velocity distribution of galaxies in dark matter haloes

ABSTRACT We present a per cent-level accurate model of the line-of-sight velocity distribution of galaxies around dark matter haloes as a function of projected radius and halo mass. The model is developed and tested using synthetic galaxy catalogues generated with the UniverseMachine run on the Multi-Dark Planck 2 N-body simulations. The model decomposes the galaxies around a cluster into three kinematically distinct classes: orbiting, infalling, and interloping galaxies. We demonstrate that: (1) we can statistically distinguish between these three types of galaxies using only projected line-of-sight velocity information; (2) the halo edge radius inferred from the line-of-sight velocity dispersion is an excellent proxy for the three-dimensional halo edge radius; and (3) we can accurately recover the full velocity dispersion profile for each of the three populations of galaxies. Importantly, the velocity dispersion profiles of the orbiting and infalling galaxies contain five independent parameters – three distinct radial scales and two velocity dispersion amplitudes – each of which is correlated with mass. Thus, the velocity dispersion profile of galaxy clusters has inherent redundancies that allow us to perform non-trivial systematics checks from a single data set. We discuss several potential applications of our new model for detecting the edge radius and constraining cosmology and astrophysics using upcoming spectroscopic surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using automated machine learning for the upscaling of gross primary productivity

Estimating gross primary productivity (GPP) over space and time is fundamental for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climate change. Eddy covariance flux towers provide in situ estimates of GPP at the ecosystem scale, but their sparse geographical distribution limits larger-scale inference. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to address this problem by extrapolating local GPP measurements over space using satellite remote sensing data. However, the accuracy of the regression model can be affected by uncertainties introduced by model selection, parameterization, and choice of explanatory features, among others. Recent advances in automated ML (AutoML) provide a novel automated way to select and synthesize different ML models. In this work, we explore the potential of AutoML by training three major AutoML frameworks on eddy covariance measurements of GPP at 243 globally distributed sites. We compared their ability to predict GPP and its spatial and temporal variability based on different sets of remote sensing explanatory variables. Explanatory variables from only Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data and photosynthetically active radiation explained over 70 % of the monthly variability in GPP, while satellite-derived proxies for canopy structure, photosynthetic activity, environmental stressors, and meteorological variables from reanalysis (ERA5-Land) further improved the frameworks' predictive ability. We found that the AutoML framework Auto-sklearn consistently outperformed other AutoML frameworks as well as a classical random forest regressor in predicting GPP but with small performance differences, reaching an r 2 of up to 0.75. We deployed the best-performing framework to generate global wall-to-wall maps highlighting GPP patterns in good agreement with satellite-derived reference data. This research benchmarks the application of AutoML in GPP estimation and assesses its potential and limitations in quantifying global photosynthetic activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Beyond Thermodynamics: Assessing the Dynamical Softness of Hydrated Ions from First Principles

Ion (de)hydration is a key rate-determining step in interfacial processes from corrosion to electrochemical energy storage. However, predicting the kinetics of ion (de)hydration remains challenging, prompting the use of static proxies such as hydration energy and valence. While useful for assessing thermodynamic preferences, such descriptors cannot fully capture the dynamical softness of the hydration shell that dictates kinetics. Accordingly, we use first-principles molecular dynamics to analyze hydration shell softness for a diverse set of metal cations. Additionally, three dynamic metrics are introduced to intuitively describe the bond rigidity, shape deformability, and exchange fluidity of the solvation shell. Together, these metrics capture the relevant physics in the static descriptors, while offering a far more complete and efficient representation for the overall propensity for (de)hydration. Application to the hydrated ion set demonstrates a weak connection between dynamical softness and hydration energy, confirming that dynamical descriptors of hydration are key for correctly describing ion transfer processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stream water sourcing from high-elevation snowpack inferred from stable isotopes of water: a novel application of d-excess values

About 80 % of the precipitation at the Colorado River's headwaters is snow, and the resulting snowmelt-driven hydrograph is a crucial water source for about 40 million people. Snowmelt from alpine and subalpine snowpack contributes substantially to groundwater recharge and river flow. However, the dynamics of snowmelt progression are not well understood because observations of the high-elevation snowpack are difficult due to challenging access in complex mountainous terrain as well as the cost and labor intensity of currently available methods. We present a novel approach to infer the processes and dynamics of high-elevation snowmelt contributions predicated upon stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios observed in streamflow. We show that deuterium-excess (d-excess) values of stream water could serve as a comparatively cost-effective proxy for a catchment-integrated signal of high-elevation snowmelt contributions to catchment runoff. We sampled stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of the precipitation, snowpack, and stream water in the East River, a headwater catchment of the Colorado River, and the stream water of larger catchments at sites on the Gunnison River and Colorado River. The d-excess of snowpack increased with elevation; the upper subalpine and alpine snowpack (> 3200 m) had substantially higher d-excess compared to lower elevations (< 3200 m) in the study area. The d-excess values of stream water reflected this because d-excess values increased as the higher-elevation snowpack contributed more to stream water generation later in the snowmelt/runoff season. End-member mixing analyses based on the d-excess data showed that the share of high-elevation snowmelt contributions within the snowmelt hydrograph was on average 44 % and generally increased during melt period progression, up to 70 %. The observed pattern was consistent during 6 years for the East River, and a similar relation was found for the larger catchments on the Gunnison and Colorado rivers. High-elevation snowpack contributions were found to be higher for years with lower snowpack and warmer spring temperatures. Thus, we conclude that the d-excess of stream water is a viable proxy to observe changes in high-elevation snowmelt contributions in catchments at various scales. Inter-catchment comparisons and temporal trends of the d-excess of stream water could therefore serve as a catchment-integrated measure to monitor if mountain systems rely on high-elevation water inputs more during snow drought compared to years of average snowpack depths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cation-Specific Electrokinetic Separations Using Prussian Blue Intercalation Reactions

In this work, we report a new approach for forming ion depletion zones (IDZs) using intercalation reactions at an electrochemically controlled Prussian blue (PB) film. The experiments described here were performed using a microfluidic device, wherein a charged fluorophore in solution was used as a proxy to monitor IDZ formation. In the presence of K + , intercalation reactions proceed readily to form an IDZ, and thus enrich the fluorophore up to 37-fold. In the presence of the larger hydrated Li + or tetrabutylammonium (TBA + ) ions, however, ion intercalation proceeded less quickly than with K + . Slower ion intercalation resulted in a weaker IDZ and correspondingly lower enrichment factors of eight- and six-fold, respectively. These results are significant because they show that PB intercalation reactions selectively form an IDZ. Accordingly, we anticipate that these findings will lead to a better understanding and further interesting applications of intercalation materials like PB for efficient and selective enrichment and separations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Opinion: A critical evaluation of the evidence for aerosol invigoration of deep convection

Deep convective updraft invigoration via indirect effects of increased aerosol number concentration on cloud microphysics is frequently cited as a driver of correlations between aerosol and deep convection properties. Here, we critically evaluate the theoretical, modeling, and observational evidence for warm- and cold-phase invigoration pathways. Though warm-phase invigoration is plausible and theoretically supported via lowering of the supersaturation with increased cloud droplet concentration in polluted conditions, the significance of this effect depends on substantial supersaturation changes in real-world convective clouds that have not been observed. Much of the theoretical support for cold-phase invigoration depends on unrealistic assumptions of instantaneous freezing and unloading of condensate in growing, isolated updrafts. When applying more realistic assumptions, impacts on buoyancy from enhanced latent heating via fusion in polluted conditions are largely canceled by greater condensate loading. Many foundational observational studies supporting invigoration have several fundamental methodological flaws that render their findings incorrect or highly questionable. Thus, much of the evidence for invigoration has come from numerical modeling, but different models and setups have produced a vast range of results. Furthermore, modeled aerosol impacts on deep convection are rarely tested for robustness, and microphysical biases relative to observations persist, rendering many results unreliable for application to the real world. Without clear theoretical, modeling, or observational support, and given that enervation rather than invigoration may occur for some deep convective regimes and environments, it is entirely possible that the overall impact of cold-phase invigoration is negligible. Substantial mesoscale variability of dominant thermodynamic controls on convective updraft strength coupled with substantial updraft and aerosol variability in any given event are poorly quantified by observations and present further challenges to isolating aerosol effects. Observational isolation and quantification of convective invigoration by aerosols is also complicated by limitations of available cloud condensation nuclei and updraft speed proxies, aerosol correlations with meteorological conditions, and cloud impacts on aerosols. Furthermore, many cloud processes, such as entrainment and condensate fallout, modulate updraft strength and aerosol–cloud interactions, varying with cloud life cycle and organization, but these processes remain poorly characterized. Considering these challenges, recommendations for future observational and modeling research related to aerosol invigoration of deep convection are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Direct Ab Initio Simulation of the Synthesis of BaZrO 3 and the Microstructure Impacts on Proton Transport

Controlling and predicting the processing-structure-performance relationship in functional materials is a grand challenge in materials science, with important implications for a wide range of emerging applications; a high fidelity understanding of the performance impact of microstructures formed under synthesis conditions is required to develop advanced materials, such as solid-state fuel cells and electrolyzers. Using the ceramic BaZrO 3 as a case study, we directly simulate the synthesis and investigate how proton transport is dictated by microstructures. We develop a framework that couples density functional theory (DFT), machine-learning interatomic potential (MLIP) driven molecular dynamics, and grand canonical Monte Carlo to perform large-scale, microstructure-resolved, atomistic simulations of proton transport in experimentally representative polycrystalline structures. Our fully ab initio approach, using a MLIP as a proxy for DFT, allows us to quantify the competition between two distinct diffusion mechanisms: one associated with grain-boundary regions and another within grains. When the impacts of grain boundaries are taken into account, proton transport exhibits substantial deviation from the bulk oxide limit. This addresses long-standing discrepancies between theory and experiments. Our integrated approach provides atomistic insight into microstructure-dependent proton pathways in BaZrO 3 and establishes a general protocol for predicting processing-structure-performance relationships.

organic↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of modular expression across phylogenetically distinct diazotrophs

Diazotrophic bacteria can reduce atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia enabling bioavailability of the essential element. Many diazotrophs closely associate with plant roots increasing nitrogen availability, acting as plant growth promoters. These associations have the potential to reduce the need for costly synthetic fertilizers if they could be engineered for agricultural applications. However, despite the importance of diazotrophic bacteria, genetic tools are poorly developed in a limited number of species, in turn narrowing the crops and root microbiomes that can be targeted. Here, we report optimized protocols and plasmids to manipulate phylogenetically diverse diazotrophs with the goal of enabling synthetic biology and genetic engineering. Three broad-host-range plasmids can be used across multiple diazotrophs, with the identification of one specific plasmid (containing origin of replication RK2 and a kanamycin resistance marker) showing the highest degree of compatibility across bacteria tested. We then demonstrated modular expression by testing seven promoters and eleven ribosomal binding sites using proxy fluorescent proteins. Finally, we tested four small molecule inducible systems to report expression in three diazotrophs and demonstrated genome editing in Klebsiella michiganensis M5al.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Galaxy cluster profiles: a Gaussian mixture model approach to halo miscentering

Measurements of the galaxy density and weak-lensing profiles of galaxy clusters typically rely on an assumed cluster center, which is taken to be the brightest cluster galaxy or other proxies for the true halo center defined as the minimum in the potential well. Departure of the assumed cluster center from the true halo center bias the resultant profile measurements, an effect known as miscentering bias. Currently, miscentering is typically modeled in stacked profiles of clusters with a two parameter model. We use an alternate approach in which the profiles of individual clusters are used with the corresponding likelihood computed using a Gaussian mixture model. We test the approach using halos and the corresponding subhalo profiles from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamic simulations. We obtain significantly improved estimates of the miscentering parameters for both 3D and projected 2D profiles relevant for imaging surveys. We discuss applications to upcoming cosmological surveys. Our Python package for the Gaussian mixture model is publicly available at https://github.com/KyleMiller1/Halo-Miscentering-Mixture-Model.

Bayesian reasoning↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preserving isohydricity: vertical environmental variability explains Amazon forest water-use strategies

Abstract Increases in hydrological extremes, including drought, are expected for Amazon forests. A fundamental challenge for predicting forest responses lies in identifying ecological strategies which underlie such responses. Characterization of species-specific hydraulic strategies for regulating water-use, thought to be arrayed along an ‘isohydric–anisohydric’ spectrum, is a widely used approach. However, recent studies have questioned the usefulness of this classification scheme, because its metrics are strongly influenced by environments, and hence can lead to divergent classifications even within the same species. Here, we propose an alternative approach positing that individual hydraulic regulation strategies emerge from the interaction of environments with traits. Specifically, we hypothesize that the vertical forest profile represents a key gradient in drought-related environments (atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, soil water availability) that drives divergent tree water-use strategies for coordinated regulation of stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf water potentials (ΨL) with tree rooting depth, a proxy for water availability. Testing this hypothesis in a seasonal eastern Amazon forest in Brazil, we found that hydraulic strategies indeed depend on height-associated environments. Upper canopy trees, experiencing high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), but stable soil water access through deep rooting, exhibited isohydric strategies, defined by little seasonal change in the diurnal pattern of gs and steady seasonal minimum ΨL. In contrast, understory trees, exposed to less variable VPD but highly variable soil water availability, exhibited anisohydric strategies, with fluctuations in diurnal gs that increased in the dry season along with increasing variation in ΨL. Our finding that canopy height structures the coordination between drought-related environmental stressors and hydraulic traits provides a basis for preserving the applicability of the isohydric-to-anisohydric spectrum, which we show here may consistently emerge from environmental context. Our work highlights the importance of understanding how environmental heterogeneity structures forest responses to climate change, providing a mechanistic basis for improving models of tropical ecosystems.

Forestry↗