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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Seafloor Seismic Noise from Sea Surface Wave Heights and Vice Versa

Seismic hazard monitoring and global seismic tomography efforts are improved by recording seismic signals close to sources and at a variety of azimuths surrounding the source. While seismic networks have been deployed at many locations on land, seafloor stations are still sparse. Inclusion of ocean-based data would greatly improve the global coverage of seismic networks. However, the use of seafloor seismic data to complement land-based detection and characterization of events is complicated by the fact that ambient noise on the seafloor is in general much higher than noise levels on land. This noise is driven primarily by sea surface waves and tides. In this project, I define an empirical relationship between wave height and seafloor seismic displacement, and tie this relationship to the microseism noise theory of Longuet-Higgins and Ursell (1948). I find that while there appears to be a linear relationship between wave height and seismic displacement, wave height values can only be used with low confidence to predict seismic displacement and vice versa, and furthermore, factors other than wave height are significant in determining the level of seismic noise at a particular site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Project Risk Assessment and Monitoring for CarbonSAFE Illinois - Macon County (Task 2)

A risk evaluation performed for CarbonSAFE Macon County included performing a risk assessment for the overall project and the identification of technical project risks. These tasks were accomplished through a combination of risk assessment meetings, workshops, expert solicitation, and identifying and implementing risk mitigation or prevention activities. Information from previous carbon storage projects and from the execution of the project (including drilling a test well and conducting 2D seismic survey) were assessed to identify future risks towards the development of a storage complex.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1979

A Geophysical Atlas for Interpretation of Satellite-derived Data

A compilation of maps of global geophysical and geological data plotted on a common scale and projection is presented. The maps include satellite gravity, magnetic, seismic, volcanic, tectonic activity, and mantle velocity anomaly data. The Bibliographic references for all maps are included.

Lowman, P. D., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rupture Jumping and Seismic Complexity in Models of Earthquake Cycles for Fault Stepovers with Off-Fault Plasticity

ABSTRACT Fault stepovers are prime examples of geometric complexity in natural fault zones that may affect seismic hazard by determining whether an earthquake rupture continues propagating or abruptly stops. However, the long-term pattern of seismicity near-fault stepovers and underlying mechanisms of rupture jumping in the context of earthquake cycles are rarely studied. Leveraging a hybrid numerical scheme combining the finite element and the spectral boundary integral methods, FEBE, we carry out fully dynamic simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip for both compressive and tensile stepovers with off-fault plasticity. We consider a rate-and-state friction law for the fault friction and pressure-sensitive Drucker–Prager plasticity for the off-fault bulk response. We observe that the accumulation of plastic deformation, an indication of off-fault damage, is significantly different in the two cases, with more plastic deformation projected in the overlapping region for the tensile stepover. The seismic pattern for a tensile stepover is more complex than for a compressive stepover, and incorporating plasticity also increases complexity, relative to the elastic case. A tensile stepover with off-fault plasticity shows rupture segmentation, temporal clustering, and frequent rupture jumping from one fault to another. These results shed light on possible mechanisms of rupture jumping in fault stepovers as well as the long-term evolution of the fault zone.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microseismic Monitoring Study to Assess the Potential for Induced Seismicity in a Depleted Oil Field in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. Microseismic monitoring is the passive recording of very small-scale seismic energy events occurring underground. Microseismic monitoring has been proposed as a monitoring technology for CCUS sites to monitor fracturing before it becomes sufficiently extensive to cause leakage. This study aimed to determine if CO 2 injection into the Niagaran pinnacle reefs in northern Michigan is likely to generate microseismic events. The Niagaran reefs are relatively small, closed features making it possible to observe a large pressure increase by injecting a relatively small volume of CO 2 . In this study, two microseismic monitoring events were conducted 39 months apart during re-pressurization of the Dover 33 reef to evaluate the potential for CO 2 -injection induced seismicity in Silurian-age carbonate reef depleted oil reservoirs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of Non-Nuclear Plowshare and Vela Uniform Sites - 20447

The Plowshare Program was initiated by the Atomic Energy Commission, a predecessor agency to the US Department of Energy (DOE), to investigate peaceful uses of nuclear devices. 'Vela Uniform,' part of the broader Project Vela, was designed to use nuclear and other explosions to increase the capability of the United States to detect nuclear tests through seismicity. There were underground nuclear tests conducted off the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) as part of the Plowshare Program (e.g., the Gnome-Coach, New Mexico, Site) and the Vela Uniform Program (e.g., Project Shoal, Nevada, Site) at which the DOE Office of Legacy Management (LM) has been conducting long-term surveillance and maintenance since fiscal year (FY) 2006. There are many additional locations, particularly for the Plowshare Program, that were considered for nuclear tests or used for non-nuclear tests off the NNSS. Some were only named on paper, but at 30 sites, field work such as drilling test wells and conducting tests using conventional explosives was done. A Plowshare nuclear explosion had been proposed at Project Chariot but was canceled in 1962. In 1992, the discovery of soils contaminated with radionuclides from tracer experiments led to a cleanup by the DOE Office of Environmental Management (EM) of the Project Chariot, Alaska, Site, which was completed in 1994. Following the cleanup of the Project Chariot site, EM was concerned that there might be environmental liabilities at other Plowshare or Vela Uniform sites where field investigations were done, even if the nuclear test was never conducted. The EM Program at the Nevada Site Office began examining records and visiting selected locations that were evaluated for Plowshare and Vela Uniform non-nuclear tests. In total, 161 Plowshare and 14 Vela Uniform sites or proposed projects were identified. The Desert Research Institute (DRI) created summaries of the work carried out at these sites and developed a collection of unclassified documents for them. Preliminary investigations had been conducted at these sites by both LM and EM since the early 2000's. In 2016, in preparation for accepting responsibility for the sites, LM started a program to determine if there were any environmental or safety liabilities associated with them. In 2019, LM formally accepted responsibility for these sites off the NNSS where non-nuclear explosive tests were conducted or where underground nuclear tests were proposed as part of the Plowshare and Vela Uniform programs but were never conducted. LM responsibilities will include maintaining institutional knowledge of the sites, responding to public inquiries, and addressing any concerns at each site. To minimize risk associated with site management, LM has archived all historical records compiled by DRI and has performed limited investigations at sites identified by the prior studies as having a higher potential liability. Preserving records related to site operations reduces the risk of doing unnecessary site investigations in the future caused by the loss of institutional knowledge. During the investigations, some maintenance needs were identified and will be addressed by the end of FY 2021. At the end of FY 2021, investigations, maintenance, and archiving activities will be complete. Remnants of test activities found at sites include craters, mud pits, debris, and open boreholes. Open boreholes are being plugged and abandoned in accordance with state regulatory standards. Other issues are being addressed in accordance with land owner requests and preferences as well as state regulations. Archiving activities include the development of project summaries identifying key operational details and current condition to allow site managers to be easily briefed. The LM experience at non-nuclear Plowshare and Vela Uniform sites applies to other programs where there is the potential for liability associated with the non-nuclear aspects of nuclear programs. This may include support activities or early phases of planned nuclear projects. Preserving institutional knowledge enables land managers to adequately address any concerns associated with operations and lowers risk. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Azerbaijan

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) underpin the determination of seismic loads in most contemporary seismic provisions of building codes around the world. Modern building codes are migrating towards using the entire uniform hazard spectrum at a range of vibration periods (typically up to 4 s or 10 s) rather than a single peak value such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), thus requiring a larger range of PSHA outputs. The hazard maps in the current version of the building code of Azerbaijan (2011) are in terms of intensity and peak ground acceleration. Recognizing the need for an up-to-date seismic hazard assessment in the country, Seismic Cooperation Program (SCP) under the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) undertook, in coordination with the Republican Seismic Survey Center of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences and the Azerbaijan Scientific Research Institute of Construction and Architecture, a PSHA study that reflects new seismic data recorded locally and recent research conducted nationally and regionally since the last update to the building code. The PSHA framework for this project was designed to help develop a new earthquake catalogue, to incorporate a novel characterization of ground motions that specifically reflects the attenuation characteristics in the eastern Caucasus, and to generate hazard information in a form that is useful for an update of the current building code or the development of a new building code for Azerbaijan. The project also aimed to provide training and support for the local seismologists and engineers related to the seismic hazard models, probabilistic seismic hazard results and their use towards changes in the building code.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway

Significant efforts are underway to develop and implement a risk-informed performance-based licensing framework for advanced reactors built on the establishment of an affirmative safety case. Such approaches offer the benefits of increased flexibility regarding key design and licensing decisions based on a detailed assessment and understanding of plant risk. These methods include the comprehensive analysis of scenarios that have historically been addressed through conservative and deterministic licensing analysis approaches, such as the evaluation of event sequences at frequencies of occurrence beyond the design basis. While the detailed analysis of low frequency events provides insights that can help justify alternative treatments to past conservatism, the findings are dependent on the quality and confidence associated with the analyses. The assessment of external hazards presents a unique challenge, as their potential frequency of occurrence, especially of large magnitude events, is inherently uncertain given the long return periods in question. The current project seeks to further explore the regulatory treatment of low frequency external events as part of a risk-informed performance-based framework. The goals are to identify the benefits and challenges of such approaches for advanced reactor vendors and to aid in the development of consistent and appropriate methodologies. As part of this effort, the current report summarizes initial project findings, with a focus on the evaluation of the seismic hazard. This includes an exploration of the implementation of a risk-informed performance-based approach through an example analysis. Based on the identified challenges associated with the probabilistic treatment of low frequency event sequences, additional performance-based methods were explored as complementary tools for demonstrating regulatory compliance. The report highlights key challenges and opportunities associated with the methods and outlines recommendations and future activities to assist with their implementation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

EarthScope Seismic Station A21K (A21K-6) Field Campaign Report

Seismic station A21K has been successfully operating over the last five years. The station was constructed on 4/24/2014 by creating a borehole using an auger drill and inserting a PVC pipe casing. Roughly one month later, on 6/2/2014, the seismometer, weather station (Vaisala WXT520 meteorological sensor), enclosure, and electronics were installed. Collected data is being reported in real-time and is publicly available. On rare occasion, the station has required in-person service/maintenance visits, occurring on 4/29/2015 (fix faulty cable), 4/5/2016 (swap VIE), and 8/4/2017 (general check-up visit while in the area). This station is one in a 280-station seismic array/grid that make up the EarthScope: Transportable Array (USArray) project, funded by the National Science Foundation. USArray is operated by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), a nonprofit 503(c) Corporation founded in 1984, that is a consortium of over 100 US universities dedicated to the operation of science facilities for the acquisition, management, and distribution of seismological data.

North Slope of Alaska, seismology, Earth system↗
NASA NTRS2005

Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

Reilinger, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyclic Injection Leads to Larger and More Frequent Induced Earthquakes under Volume-Controlled Conditions

As carbon storage technologies advance globally, methods to understand and mitigate induced earthquakes become increasingly important. Although the physical processes that relate increased subsurface pore pressure changes to induced earthquakes have long been known, reliable methods to forecast and control induced seismic sequences remain elusive. Suggested reservoir engineering scenarios for mitigating induced earthquakes typically involve modulation of the injection rate. Some operators have implemented periodic shutdowns (i.e., effective cycling of injection rates) to allow reservoir pressures to equilibrate (e.g., Paradox Valley) or shut-in wells after the occurrence of an event of concern (e.g., Basel, Switzerland). Other proposed scenarios include altering injection rates, actively managing pressures through coproduction of fluids, and preinjection brine extraction. Here, in this work, we use 3D physics-based earthquake simulations to understand the effects of different injection scenarios on induced earthquake rates, maximum event magnitudes, and postinjection seismicity. For comparability, the modeled injection considers the same cumulative volume over the project’s operational life but varies the schedule and rates of fluid injected. Simulation results show that cyclic injection leads to more frequent and larger events than constant injection. Furthermore, with intermittent injection scenario, a significant number of events are shown to occur during pauses in injection, and the seismicity rate remains elevated for longer into the postinjection phase compared to the constant injection scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Play Fairway Analysis: Structurally Controlled Geothermal Systems in the Eastern Great Basin Extensional Regime, Utah

A research team with membership from the University of Utah/Energy & Geoscience Institute, the University of Utah/Dept. of Geology & Geophysics, and the Utah Geological Survey, undertook a play fairway analysis (PFA) for geothermal resources in the Eastern Great Basin (EGB) extensional tectonic regime of western Utah. This is a high-priority region for geothermal exploration because active Basin and Range (B&R) extension with volcanism having a N-S strike is superimposed upon pre-existing E-W belts of plutonic rocks and large-scale structural lineaments. Cumulative heat flow along the N-S strike of the state totals approximately 5 GWt above background stable interior. Three electricity producing power plants currently exist with substantial potential for increase. Succinctly, our PFA approach aims to resolve potential sources of heat and permeability in the region, which are the two principal criteria for establishing a geothermal resource. An initial Phase 1 was carried out using only existing geoscientific data in the area. Criteria selected for focusing heat potential include direct heat flow measurements in boreholes, magnetotelluric (MT) low resistivity anomalies, fluid/gas geochemistry, and proximity to recent volcanic eruptions. Permeability is established through geological structures (fault density, critically stressed areas, seismicity, gravity), and MT low resistivity anomalies. In Phase II of this PFA project, additional geological, geophysical and geochemical data were acquired and analysis carried out primarily over promising composite common risk (CCR) areas initially identified in Phase I in order to focus prospectivity and prepare for drilling recommendations. These prospects are near the Twin Peaks rhyolite field, high heat flow areas north of the producing Cove Fort system, and geophysical structure beneath the Crater Knoll area off the northeast flank of the Mineral Mountains. Additional data included MT site fill-in, structural mapping and analysis using high-resolution imagery, gravity and on-ground mapping, Nodal 3C passive seismic collection, and passive 3He surveying. Heat source and permeability potential are again expressed in terms of their individual common risk segment (CRS) maps, with a color scheme using green for most favorable (low risk) and red for least favorable (high risk). Diverse data types are united through the technique of probability kriging, which establishes prospectivity thresholds for each data type and then computes probability of exceeding that threshold over the PFA area. Modified CRS and CCRS maps are compared to those of Phase I to highlight tighter prospectivity focus. In doing so, the prospectivity threshold for heat was increased significantly to narrow the targeting. In the final Phase III of this project where a recommended deep thermal gradient hole was sited, additional geophysical, geochemical and geological field collection and analysis was carried out to refine drill hole targeting. This includes prospect-scale MT, gravity, structure, passive seismic deployment (Cove Fort area), and detailed 3He isotope profiling. It was the recommendation of the DOE Technical Monitoring Team (TMT) that one or more holes be sited in the north-ern Cove Fort area where legacy TG gradient holes showed high cumulative heat flow. These were to be of moderate depth, 2000-3000 feet, to reach the geothermal fluid table expected to start in excess of 1000 feet depth. The drilling organization stipulated by the DOE/GTO was that of the USGS Research Drilling Program (RDP) centered in Las Vegas, NV. A detailed well plan, appended to this report, was developed principally by Dr. Ben Barker consulting to University of Utah, Dr. Steve Pye on the DOE TMT, Mr. Steven Crawford of the USGS-RDP, and the project PI Phil Wannamaker. However, temperature and possible H 2 S at the systems lead to cancellation of the drilling last-minute as this appeared outside the experience base of the USGS-RDP. We hope to have the opportunity to revisit the test drilling and expand the Play Fairway Analysis of this region at some point in the future.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

CO 2 induced changes in Mount Simon sandstone: Understanding links to post CO 2 injection monitoring, seismicity, and reservoir integrity

The purpose of this study is to quantify geochemical reactions of CO 2 and brine with subsurface samples taken from the Mt. Simon sandstone and identify any potential alterations of the geomechanical rock properties that could lead to changes observable in seismic monitoring or result in changes of micro seismicity such as those observed at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) site. Two Mt. Simon sandstone samples from 6919.3 feet (2109.0 m) and 6926.1 feet (2111.1 m) depth were exposed to supercritical CO 2 (scCO 2 ) dissolved in brine at in-situ reservoir conditions for one month. Geochemical, spectral, scanning electron microscopy, and petrophysical methods were used to analyze the samples before and after the one-month exposure. Significant changes were observed. Multiple geomechanical properties were chosen to form the framework against which to interrogate the petrophysical data: Young’s modulus (E), Poisson’s ratio (ν), lambda·rho (λρ), and mu·rho (μρ). In this study we conclude that framework composition, porosity, heterogeneities, effective pressure, and reactive geochemistry are first order controls on trends in the E-μ and λρ-μρ cross plot spaces. Changes in porosity, permeability, dynamic moduli, and brittleness with exposure to these fluids were observed. No change in ultrasonic P-wave attenuation (Q P ) was observed. Geochemical alteration causes a distinct shift in λρ-μρ in both samples as well as changes in E, ν, and P and S wave seismic velocity values. Furthermore, these observations could provide insight into subsurface monitoring using seismic methods including amplitude variation with offset (AVO) classification.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wabash CarbonSAFE: Detailed Site Characterization Plan, Task 11.0, Technical Report

Wabash CarbonSAFE established that commercial-scale CO 2 storage in the Potosi Dolomite –Maquoketa Group storage complex associated with the Wabash Valley Resources (WVR) plant site near Terre Haute, IN is highly feasible. The CarbonSAFE project team performed this evaluation through extensive data acquisition and analysis including 2D seismic reflection data, wireline logs, well testing, and core/cuttings from the Wabash #1 stratigraphic test well (now plugged and abandoned). This document summarizes work detailed in separate Wabash CarbonSAFE reports and consolidates the geologic characterization, well testing, and storage complex modeling results for the Mt. Simon Sandstone and Potosi Dolomite, two distinct reservoirs characterized at the Wabash CarbonSAFE project site. The report then presents recommendations for the next steps for site characterization, identifies data gaps for future activities, and provides an overall assessment of site potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-Lapse Integration at FWU: Fluids, Rock Physics, Numerical Model Integration, and Field Data Comparison

We present the current status of time-lapse seismic integration at the Farnsworth (FWU) CO2 WAG (water-alternating-gas) EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) project at Ochiltree County, northwest Texas. As a potential carbon sequestration mechanism, CO2 WAG projects will be subject to some degree of monitoring and verification, either as a regulatory requirement or to qualify for economic incentives. In order to evaluate the viability of time-lapse seismic as a monitoring method the Southwest Partnership (SWP) has conducted time-lapse seismic monitoring at FWU using the 3D Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) method. The efficacy of seismic time-lapse depends on a number of key factors, which vary widely from one application to another. Most important among these are the thermophysical properties of the original fluid in place and the displacing fluid, followed by the petrophysical properties of the rock matrix, which together determine the effective elastic properties of the rock fluid system. We present systematic analysis of fluid thermodynamics and resulting thermophysical properties, petrophysics and rock frame elastic properties, and elastic property modeling through fluid substitution using data collected at FWU. These analyses will be framed in realistic scenarios presented by the FWU CO2 WAG development. The resulting fluid/rock physics models will be applied to output from the calibrated FWU compositional reservoir simulation model to forward model the time-lapse seismic response. Modeled results are compared with field time-lapse seismic measurements and strategies for numerical model feedback/update are discussed. While mechanical effects are neglected in the work presented here, complementary parallel studies are underway in which laboratory measurements are introduced to introduce stress dependence of matrix elastic moduli.

4D↗
DOE OSTI2021

Software Verification and Validation Guidelines for Non-Linear Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis

Seismic analysis of structures, systems, and components (SSCs), including the consideration of soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects, is an important and required step in the design and licensing of nuclear power plant SSCs important to safety. Historically, the SSI analysis of nuclear structures has been performed using equivalent linear methods. However, there has been considerable industry investment in alternative seismic design and analysis approaches to reduce the construction cost of new reactors. Toward that goal and in alignment with the Licensing Modernization Project (LMP) framework, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US NRC) has proposed a risk-informed, performance-based approach to seismic design that allows inelastic response in those nuclear plant structures not required for confinement. As a complementary effort, reactor designers are exploring nonlinear seismic analysis methods to optimize structural designs and reduce construction costs.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic monitoring of EGS fracture stimulations at Utah FORGE (Part 1): Time-lapse variations of b-values and Shear-wave Splitting Rates of induced microearthquakes

Characterizing geologic formations near geothermal wells is crucial for efficient extraction of subsurface geothermal energy resources. To monitor effective fracture stimulation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), we analyze a catalog of induced microearthquakes to characterize seismicity induced by Phase 2C fracture stimulations of the Utah FORGE project and derive the b-values for 424 induced microearthquakes in three stages of fracture stimulation. Here, we find the time-lapse variations of these b-values. We apply eigenvector rotation and waveform correlation to 3C geophone data to separate fast S 1 and slow S 2 waves, determine their directions, measure their lag time, and calculate the S-wave splitting rate (SSR) for six induced microearthquakes in Stage 1 and 21 in Stage 3. Both SSR values and b-values increase with time. The increase in these values may be related to heavily fractured zones created by fracture stimulations during Stage 2 injections. Large and highly variable SSR values in Stage 3 may reflect heterogeneities in the fracture zones. Time-lapse variations of SSR values and b-values may be one of the most useful approaches to monitoring and characterizing the effectiveness and efficiency of various types of fracture stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗