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NASA NTRS2014

Constructing the Best Reliability Data for the Job

Modern business and technical decisions are based on the results of analyses. When considering assessments using "reliability data", the concern is how long a system will continue to operate as designed. Generally, the results are only as good as the data used. Ideally, a large set of pass/fail tests or observations to estimate the probability of failure of the item under test would produce the best data. However, this is a costly endeavor if used for every analysis and design. Developing specific data is costly and time consuming. Instead, analysts rely on available data to assess reliability. Finding data relevant to the specific use and environment for any project is difficult, if not impossible. Instead, we attempt to develop the "best" or composite analog data to support our assessments. One method used incorporates processes for reviewing existing data sources and identifying the available information based on similar equipment, then using that generic data to derive an analog composite. Dissimilarities in equipment descriptions, environment of intended use, quality and even failure modes impact the "best" data incorporated in an analog composite. Once developed, this composite analog data provides a "better" representation of the reliability of the equipment or component can be used to support early risk or reliability trade studies, or analytical models to establish the predicted reliability data points. Data that is more representative of reality and more project specific would provide more accurate analysis, and hopefully a better final decision.

Kleinhammer, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Second Generation RLV Program

During the time period covered by this report, SAIC: 1) Continued to develop and assess processes and approaches that can be applied to Second Generation Reuseable Launch Vehicles (RLV) technologies prioritization. An approach based on the use of analytic Saaty scale functions has been defined and is being investigated. 2) Planned and facilitated technologies prioritization workshops, supported development of systems program algorithms based on the concept of influence diagramming, and assessment of analogies between aircraft and space systems developments. 3) Video interviews held with X-37 personnel at Dryden. The CD-ROM is being concluded and a near-final review disc is expected soon. 4) CD-ROMS were produced by Engineered Multimedia, Inc. (EMI) under subcontract to SAIC. These two CD-ROM products, "Microgravity" and "New Horizons", were delivered to MSFS technical representatives at a briefing at SAID on January 18, 2001. 5) Presentation brochure, "Aviation/Space Analog Team Interim Report" was provided to Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) members and to NASA personnel. Wrap-up of effort will be a mid-April briefing to both MSFC and the full SPST membership. Support to Phase 2 of CCPD ends 3/31/01. Phase 3 continuation effort planned with emphasis on technical info content. 6) Recommended that eliminating the B-52 flights of the X-37 in favor of alternate approached be evaluated. Discovered that a required change to the thruster valves of the X-37 had not been made. Repair work continues on the lower fuselage section of the X-37, in the areas that experienced core collapse. The currently catalogued potential weight increases and decreases are about equal, but this does not include the impact of the cable weight underestimate reported earlier. The CFD for RCS testing correlates well with the wind tunnel data. 7) The Level IV CCB approved SCN-4 to the MC-1 Engine SPecification. Approved changes have been incorporated into the specification, and Revision D has been released to the Repository. Billy Gonterman, SAIC, traveled to SSC to perform a five-day readiness assessment on the progress of facilities activation. Implemented modifications to the MC-1 Engine TPA Component Database. 8) Replaced 25 Combined-Cycle Propulsion Database (CCPD) documents; modified the low-on screen to include a direct email link for user contact; prepared a summary presentation of current and proposed tasks.

Laue, Jay↗

NASA NTRS1982

Advanced reliability modeling of fault-tolerant computer-based systems

Two methodologies for the reliability assessment of fault tolerant digital computer based systems are discussed. The computer-aided reliability estimation 3 (CARE 3) and gate logic software simulation (GLOSS) are assessment technologies that were developed to mitigate a serious weakness in the design and evaluation process of ultrareliable digital systems. The weak link is based on the unavailability of a sufficiently powerful modeling technique for comparing the stochastic attributes of one system against others. Some of the more interesting attributes are reliability, system survival, safety, and mission success.

Bavuso, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Optimized Umkehr Profile Algorithm for Ozone Trend Analyses

The long-term record of Umkehr measurements from four NOAA Dobson spectrophotometers was reprocessed after updates to the instrument calibration procedures. In addition, a new data quality-control tool was developed for the Dobson automation software (WinDobson). This paper presents a comparison of Dobson Umkehr ozone profiles from NOAA ozone network stations (Boulder, OHP, MLO, Lauder) against several satellite records, including Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS; ver. 4.2), and combined SBUV and OMPS records (NASA AGG and NOAA COH). A subset of satellite data is selected to match Dobson Umkehr observations at each station spatially (distance less than 200 km) and temporally (within 24 hours). Umkehr Averaging Kernels (AKs) are applied to vertically smooth all overpass satellite profiles prior to comparisons. The station Umkehr record consists of several instrumental records, which have different optical characterizations, and thus instrument-specific stray light contributes to the data processing errors and creates step changes in the record. This work evaluates the overall quality of Umkehr long-term measurements at NOAA ground-based stations and assesses the impact of the instrumental changes on the stability of the Umkehr ozone profile record. This paper describes a method designed to correct biases and discontinuities in the retrieved Umkehr profile that originate from the Dobson calibration process, repair, or optical realignment of the instrument. The M2GMI and GMI CTM ozone profile model output matched to station location and date of observation is used to evaluate instrumental step changes in the Umkehr record. Homogenization of the Umkehr record and discussion of the apparent stray light error in retrieved ozone profiles are the focus of this paper. Homogenization of ground-based records is of great importance for studies of long-term ozone trends and climate change.

Umkehr↗

NASA NTRS1982

Silicon materials task of the Low Cost Solar Array Project: Effect of impurities and processing on silicon solar cells

The effects of impurities and processing on the characteristics of silicon and terrestrial silicon solar cells were defined in order to develop cost benefit relationships for the use of cheaper, less pure solar grades of silicon. The amount of concentrations of commonly encountered impurities that can be tolerated in typical p or n base solar cells was established, then a preliminary analytical model from which the cell performance could be projected depending on the kinds and amounts of contaminants in the silicon base material was developed. The impurity data base was expanded to include construction materials, and the impurity performace model was refined to account for additional effects such as base resistivity, grain boundary interactions, thermal processing, synergic behavior, and nonuniform impurity distributions. A preliminary assessment of long term (aging) behavior of impurities was also undertaken.

Hopkins, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Computing in space: Issues and answers

Future plans for space exploration call for scientific instruments whose data is increasingly voluminous, far exceeding constraints set by telemetry rates, and therefore, an increased role for spaceborne computing. Three issues that greatly influence the realization of spaceborne computing systems are addressed. The first involves the identification of those research problems which are unique to space computing. Resources must be expended on these problems if efforts are to add value to, and have impact on, the technology of computing in space. The second addresses the transfer of new technology from the research laboratory to use in space. What can be done to expedite this process and shrink the technology gap that separates Earth and space based systems must be assessed. The third issue involves the user's point of view of what is required of new space computing systems. That is, what are the driving forces that most influence customers' decisions to use or not use new technology? Issues of design environment for spaceborne computers, tools for modeling and evaluation of flight systems, and validation of space flight hardware and software are also discussed.

Davidson, John M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Climate Change and Food Security: The View from Space

Global satellite data provides information on land use, rainfall, soil moisture, vegetation vigor and crop yields. Process-based products allows transformation of these data into information that can be used to assess impact of weather on commodity prices and local economic health. Trends and impact of climate change

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Signal Processing Methods for Liquid Rocket Engine Combustion Spontaneous Stability and Rough Combustion Assessments

Liquid rocket engine combustion stability assessments are traditionally broken into three categories: dynamic stability, spontaneous stability, and rough combustion. This work focuses on comparing the spontaneous stability and rough combustion assessments for several liquid engine programs. The techniques used are those developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for the J-2X Workhorse Gas Generator program. Stability assessment data from the Integrated Powerhead Demonstrator (IPD), FASTRAC, and Common Extensible Cryogenic Engine (CECE) programs are compared against previously processed J-2X Gas Generator data. Prior metrics for spontaneous stability assessments are updated based on the compilation of all data sets.

Kenny, R. Jeremy↗

NASA NTRS2013

Bayesian Revision of Residual Detection Power

This paper addresses some issues with quality assessment and quality assurance in response surface modeling experiments executed in wind tunnels. The role of data volume on quality assurance for response surface models is reviewed. Specific wind tunnel response surface modeling experiments are considered for which apparent discrepancies exist between fit quality expectations based on implemented quality assurance tactics, and the actual fit quality achieved in those experiments. These discrepancies are resolved by using Bayesian inference to account for certain imperfections in the assessment methodology. Estimates of the fraction of out-of-tolerance model predictions based on traditional frequentist methods are revised to account for uncertainty in the residual assessment process. The number of sites in the design space for which residuals are out of tolerance is seen to exceed the number of sites where the model actually fails to fit the data. A method is presented to estimate how much of the design space in inadequately modeled by low-order polynomial approximations to the true but unknown underlying response function.

DeLoach, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Degradation of Aluminum and Tantalum Wet Electrolytic Capacitors during High Temperature Storage

Aluminum electrolytic capacitors (AEC) are available to higher ranges of capacitance and voltage compared to tantalum electrolytic capacitors (TEC). However, evaporation of the electrolyte during operation or storage of conventional AEC that is accelerated with temperature does not allow use of these parts in space electronics. Instead, for systems requiring large value capacitors and high operating voltages, designers must use banks of TECs that increases substantially the size and weight of electronic modules. Development of hermetically sealed AECs might be beneficial for space systems provided the necessary reliability is assured. Increase in leakage current during storage of AEC is well known and is often explained by dissolution of aluminum oxide in electrolyte. However, other possible mechanisms of this effect have not been discussed. Although hermetically sealed TEC have been used in space systems for years, there is a lack of information about the effects of storage on their characteristics that is of great interest as a comparison for aluminum capacitors. This work explores degradation of AC characteristics (capacitance, dissipation factor, and equivalent series resistance) and DC characteristics (leakage and absorption currents) in different types of aluminum and tantalum hermetically sealed capacitors during long-term storage at high temperatures (100 °C, 125 °C, and 150 °C). It is shown that leakage currents are degrading in both types of capacitors, but this degradation is reversible after bias application. Mechanisms of degradation are discussed, and explanations based on the processes common for both types of capacitors are suggested. Problems associated with assessments of hermeticity and evaporation of the electrolyte in hermetically sealed capacitors are analyzed.

Alexander Teverovsky↗

NASA NTRS1991

Multiresponse imaging system design for improved resolution

Multiresponse imaging is a process that acquires A images, each with a different optical response, and reassembles them into a single image with an improved resolution that can approach 1/sq rt A times the photodetector-array sampling lattice. Our goals are to optimize the performance of this process in terms of the resolution and fidelity of the restored image and to assess the amount of information required to do so. The theoretical approach is based on the extension of both image restoration and rate-distortion theories from their traditional realm of signal processing to image processing which includes image gathering and display.

Alter-Gartenberg, Rachel↗

NASA NTRS2015

Dissemination of Earth Remote Sensing Data for Use in the NOAA/NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit

The National Weather Service has developed the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT), an application for smartphones and tablets that allows for the collection, geolocation, and aggregation of various damage indicators that are collected during storm surveys. The DAT supports the often labor‐intensive process where meteorologists venture into the storm‐affected area, allowing them to acquire geotagged photos of the observed damage while also assigning estimated EF‐scale categories based upon their observations. Once the data are collected, the DAT infrastructure aggregates the observations into a server that allows other meteorologists to perform quality control and other analysis steps before completing their survey and making the resulting data available to the public. In addition to in‐person observations, Earth remote sensing from operational, polar-orbiting satellites can support the damage assessment process by identifying portions of damage tracks that may be missed due to road limitations, access to private property, or time constraints. Products resulting from change detection techniques can identify damage to vegetation and the land surface, aiding in the survey process. In addition, higher resolution commercial imagery can corroborate ground‐based surveys by examining higher‐resolution commercial imagery. As part of an ongoing collaboration, NASA and NOAA are working to integrate near real‐time Earth remote sensing observations into the NOAA/NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit. This presentation will highlight recent developments in a streamlined approach for disseminating Earth remote sensing data via web mapping services and a new menu interface that has been integrated within the DAT. A review of current and future products will be provided, including products derived from MODIS and VIIRS for preliminary track identification, along with conduits for higher‐resolution Landsat, ASTER, and commercial imagery as they become available. In addition to tornado damage assessments, the team is also investigating the use of near real‐time imagery for identifying hail damage to vegetation, which also results in large swaths of damage, particularly in the central United States during the peak growing season months of June, July, and August. This presentation will present an overview of recent activities, challenges and successes, best practices, and opportunities for future work and collaboration

Molthan, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2005

Geospatial Analysis and Remote Sensing from Airplanes and Satellites for Cultural Resources Management

Cultural resource management consists of research to identify, evaluate, document and assess cultural resources, planning to assist in decision-making, and stewardship to implement the preservation, protection and interpretation of these decisions and plans. One technique that may be useful in cultural resource management archaeology is remote sensing. It is the acquisition of data and derivative information about objects or materials (targets) located on the Earth's surface or in its atmosphere by using sensor mounted on platforms located at a distance from the targets to make measurements on interactions between the targets and electromagnetic radiation. Included in this definition are systems that acquire imagery by photographic methods and digital multispectral sensors. Data collected by digital multispectral sensors on aircraft and satellite platforms play a prominent role in many earth science applications, including land cover mapping, geology, soil science, agriculture, forestry, water resource management, urban and regional planning, and environmental assessments. Inherent in the analysis of remotely sensed data is the use of computer-based image processing techniques. Geographical information systems (GIS), designed for collecting, managing, and analyzing spatial information, are also useful in the analysis of remotely sensed data. A GIS can be used to integrate diverse types of spatially referenced digital data, including remotely sensed and map data. In archaeology, these tools have been used in various ways to aid in cultural resource projects. For example, they have been used to predict the presence of archaeological resources using modern environmental indicators. Remote sensing techniques have also been used to directly detect the presence of unknown sites based on the impact of past occupation on the Earth's surface. Additionally, remote sensing has been used as a mapping tool aimed at delineating the boundaries of a site or mapping previously unknown features. All of these applications are pertinent to the goals of site discovery and assessment in cultural resource management.

Giardino, Marco J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Life insurance risk assessment using a fuzzy logic expert system

In this paper, we present a knowledge based system that combines fuzzy processing with rule-based processing to form an improved decision aid for evaluating risk for life insurance. This application illustrates the use of FuzzyCLIPS to build a knowledge based decision support system possessing fuzzy components to improve user interactions and KBS performance. The results employing FuzzyCLIPS are compared with the results obtained from the solution of the problem using traditional numerical equations. The design of the fuzzy solution consists of a CLIPS rule-based system for some factors combined with fuzzy logic rules for others. This paper describes the problem, proposes a solution, presents the results, and provides a sample output of the software product.

Carreno, Luis A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Reliability Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering, with Model- Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) leading the way, is transforming design and analysis methodologies. The recognized benefits to systems development include moving from document-centric information systems and document-centric project communication to a model-centric environment in which control of design changes in the life cycles is facilitated. In addition, a “single source of truth” about the system, that is up-to-date in all respects of the design, becomes the authoritative source of data and information about the system. This promotes consistency and efficiency in regard to integration of the system elements as the design emerges and thereby may further optimize the design. Therefore Reliability Engineers (REs) supporting NASA missions must be integrated into model-based engineering to ensure the outputs of their analyses are relevant and value-needed to the design, development, and operational processes for failure risks assessment and communication.

Reliability prediction↗

NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System Modeling of a Lunar Molten Regolith Electrolysis Plant

Introduction: In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) is the process of extracting local resources to produce commodities for propulsion, life support systems, and off-planet construction rather than transporting consumables from Earth. Molten Regolith Electrolysis (MRE) is a novel ISRU method of extracting oxygen gas and metal alloy from lunar regolith. The MRE process involves placing lunar regolith between two electrodes, through which current is passed, to melt the regolith and reduce the metal oxide constituents by direct electrolysis (e.g. FeO, SiO2, MgO, Al2O3) into oxygen gas and metal alloys. The oxygen is liquefied and used as propellant for landers, while the metals (e.g. Ferro-alloys) are further processed and used in structural building materials and parts manufacturing. A system model was developed that accounted for the major processes of an MRE plant (from excavation of raw materials to storage of products) to assess the feasibility of a lunar MRE plant. The System Engineering and Integration (SE&I) ISRU Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) team utilized its previously documented system sizing model, the Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) [1] as framework of the system model. MAIT uses MATLAB/Simulink to integrate subsystem models into a complete system model of the MRE plant. Total mass, volume, and power requirements were computed for numerous iterations of a MRE plant. System Model: Figure 1: MRE Plant Block Diagram The regolith excavation model determines the mass and power needed to excavate sufficient regolith. The preheating auger initiates the regolith heating process before regolith enters the MRE re-actor to reduce the energy required to turn the solid into a molten liquid. The MRE reactor is modeled in COMSOL Multiphysics and based on the research by Dominguez, Sibille, and Schreiner [2, 3, 4]. This preliminary reactor model provides an accurate calculation of thermal equilibrium during electrochemical operation of the reactor system to assess the optimal mass and power required to process the inlet flow of regolith. The model also computes the outlet flowrates of oxygen and molten products. For this analysis, the primary components of the metal alloy considered were iron and silicon. The oxygen is then purified using an Yttrium Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) electrode, followed by liquefaction using a 90K cryocooler to be stored as liquid oxygen in insulated cylindrical tanks. In future iterations of the system model, the molten metal tapped from the MRE reactor will undergo additional processing or refinement. However, downstream handling of metals is currently a technology gap that is missing a high TRL subsystem model. Therefore, for this analysis, the accumulated metal alloy stream terminates after leaving the MRE reactor. Study Goals: This analysis investigates multiple input variables to the system to determine the sensitivity of a (near) complete plant at full-scale. This preliminary investigation ran parametric sweeps on the MRE reactor geometry, electrical current supply, layers of multi-layer insulation (MLI) on the reactor, size of the electrodes in the oxygen purification model, and regolith composition (based on landing site location). Three production targets of oxygen (1,000, 10,000, and 50,000 kg/yr) were investigated for this analysis. The parametric sweeps conducted in this analysis provide valuable insight into the expected impact of the various model inputs on plant size. This information can be used to identify the most critical components of the plant and guide future decisions on allocating funding for research and development, providing subsystem developers with appropriate interfaces with downstream and upstream processes, and assessing the overall feasibility of MRE when compared to other ISRU plants. References: [1] Carlson, A. et al. (2024) ICES, ICES-2024-53. [2] Dominguez, D.A., and Sibille, L. (2011) AIAA, AIAA-2011-700. [3] Schreiner, S.S. (2015) MIT, Dissertation. [4] Schreiner, S.S. et al. (2016) ASR, 57(7), pp.1585-1603.

ISRU↗