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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal experimental design for prediction based on push-forward probability measures

Incorporating experimental data is essential for increasing the credibility of simulation-aided decision making and design. This paper presents a method which uses a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to produce data-informed predictions of quantities of interest (QoI). Many strategies for optimal experimental design (OED) select data that maximize some utility that measures the reduction in uncertainty of uncertain model parameters, for example the expected information gain between prior and posterior distributions of these parameters. In this paper, we seek to maximize the expected information gained from the pushforward of an initial (prior) density to the push-forward of the updated (posterior) density through the parameter-to-prediction map. The formulation presented is based upon the solution of a specific class of stochastic inverse problems which seeks a probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of this density through the parameter-to-observable map matches a target density on the observable data. While this stochastic inverse problem forms the mathematical basis for our approach, we develop a one-step algorithm, focused on push-forward probability measures, that leverages inference-for-prediction to bypass constructing the solution to the stochastic inverse problem. A number of numerical results are presented to demonstrate the utility of this optimal experimental design for prediction and facilitate comparison of our approach with traditional OED.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

A multi-step nucleation process determines the kinetics of prion-like domain phase separation

Compartmentalization by liquid-liquid phase separation (LLPS) has emerged as a ubiquitous mechanism underlying the organization of biomolecules in space and time. Here, we combine rapid-mixing time-resolved small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) approaches to characterize the assembly kinetics of a prototypical prion-like domain with equilibrium techniques that characterize its phase boundaries and the size distribution of clusters prior to phase separation. We find two kinetic regimes on the micro- to millisecond timescale that are distinguished by the size distribution of clusters. At the nanoscale, small complexes are formed with low affinity. After initial unfavorable complex assembly, additional monomers are added with higher affinity. At the mesoscale, assembly resembles classical homogeneous nucleation. Careful multi-pronged characterization is required for the understanding of condensate assembly mechanisms and will promote understanding of how the kinetics of biological phase separation is encoded in biomolecules.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Milling stability identification using Bayesian machine learning

This paper describes automated identification of the milling stability boundary using Bayesian machine learning and experiments. The Bayesian machine learning process begins with the user’s initial beliefs about milling stability. This “prior” is a distribution that uses all available information, which may be based only on experience or may be informed by physics-based model predictions. Experiments are then completed to update this prior by calculating the “posterior,” a modified probabilistic description of the milling stability limit based on the new information. The approach is demonstrated and results are presented for both numerical and experimental cases.

Karandikar, Jaydeep↗
DOE OSTI2021

ARENA: Asynchronous Reconfigurable Accelerator Ring to Enable Data-Centric Parallel Computing

The next generation HPC and data centers are likely to be reconfigurable and data-centric due to the trend of hardware specialization and the emergence of data-driven applications. In this work, we propose ARENA – an asynchronous reconfigurable accelerator ring architecture as a potential scenario on how the future HPC and data centers will be like. Despite using the coarse-grained reconfigurable arrays (CGRAs) as the substrate platform, our key contribution is not only the CGRA-cluster design itself, but also the ensemble of a new architecture and programming model that enables asynchronous tasking across a cluster of reconfigurable nodes, so as to bring specialized computation to the data rather than the reverse. We presume distributed data storage without asserting any prior knowledge on the data distribution. Hardware specialization occurs at runtime when a task finds the majority of data it requires are available at the present node. In other words, we dynamically generate specialized CGRA accelerators where the data reside. The asynchronous tasking for bringing computation to data is achieved by circulating the task token, which describes the dataflow graphs to be executed for a task, among the CGRA cluster connected by a fast ring network. Evaluations on a set of HPC and data-driven applications across different domains show that ARENA can provide better parallel scalability with reduced data movement (53.9 percent). Compared with contemporary compute-centric parallel models, ARENA can bring on average 4.37× speedup. The synthesized CGRAs and their task-dispatchers only occupy 2.93mm 2 chip area under 45nm process technology and can run at 800MHz with on average 759.8mW power consumption. ARENA also supports the concurrent execution of multi-applications, offering ideal architectural support for future high-performance parallel computing and data analytics systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2004

Distributed network scheduling

Distributed Network Scheduling is the scheduling of future communications of a network by nodes in the network. This report details software for doing this onboard spacecraft in a remote network. While prior work on distributed scheduling has been applied to remote spacecraft networks, the software reported here focuses on modeling communication activities in greater detail and including quality of service constraints. Our main results are based on a Mars network of spacecraft and include identifying a maximum opportunity of improving traverse exploration rate a factor of three; a simulation showing reduction in one-way delivery times from a rover to Earth from as much as 5 to 1.5 hours; simulated response to unexpected events averaging under an hour onboard; and ground schedule generation ranging from seconds to 50 minutes for 15 to 100 communication goals.

planning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report Summarizing the Mechanical Properties of a Large ODS Ferritic Alloy Ingot by Forging at High Temperatures for Future Mother Tube Production

Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) ferritic alloys are considered the benchmark fuel cladding and core structural material in advanced nuclear energy reactors that require high-temperature strength and creep properties and resistance to radiation damage. The ODS ferritic alloys including 14YWT are produced by mechanical alloying (MA), which is time-consuming and is associated with high manufacturing costs that are not beneficial to being used in advanced nuclear energy reactors. This report summarizes the accomplishments in FY24 in the INM program for producing an ODS ferritic alloy by high-deformation, high-temperature processing of reactive and ferritic alloy powders for advanced reactor fuel cladding applications. Following four hot forging experiments, it was concluded that several significant challenges were encountered that were difficult to overcome. These challenges were related to using high annealing temperatures for pressure assisted sintering processes to produce dense microstructures, but the high annealing temperatures result in long range diffusion of Ti through the bcc Fe lattice and react with the YIG particles that are distributed on the prior surfaces of the ferritic alloy powders. In addition, it was determined that the high deformations induced by forging at high temperatures were not very effective for fracturing the reactive YIG particles into smaller particles and distributing them into the interior of the ferritic alloy powders. Spark plasma sintering was attempted for shortening the time at high temperatures, which led to full densification but the microstructure characterization results still showed that Ti atoms diffused over long distances in the bcc Fe lattice and reacted with the YIG particles. Finally, a short 30 minute high intensity ball milling experiment was conducted on blended 14WT and YIG powders for inducing severe deformations that caused the initially spherical powders of 14WT decorated with the YIG particles on the surfaces to transform to flakes and fracturing of YIG particles into smaller particles that were incorporated into the bcc Fe lattice. Two forgings were performed with the high intensity milled powders: first annealing for 20 minutes at 850ºC followed by forging and second annealing for 20 minutes at 1,100ºC followed by forging. At 850ºC, Ti atoms are effectively immobile, thus allowing for densification albeit incomplete. The deformation by forging after annealing for 20 minutes at 1,100ºC favored dynamic recrystallization processes that led to nano-size grains with very high stored energy due to high dislocation density. The corresponding VH data showed significant hardening that correlated with estimated strengthening of ~1650 MPa. This hybrid processing approach combining high intensity ball milling of powder with annealing and forging showed the most promise for producing an oxide dispersing strengthened ferritic alloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1973

Bayesian estimation of life parameters in the Weibull distribution.

Development of a Bayesian analysis of the scale and shape parameters in the Weibull distribution and the corresponding reliability function with respect to the usual life-testing procedures. For the scale parameter theta, Bayesian estimates of theta and reliability are obtained for the uniform, exponential, and inverted gamma prior probability densities. Bhattacharya's results (1967) for the one-parameter exponential life-testing distribution are reduced to a special case of these results. A fully Bayesian analysis of both the scale and shape parameters is developed by assuming independent prior distributions; since in the latter case, analytical tractability is not possible, Bayesian estimates are obtained through a conjunction of Monte Carlo simulation and numerical-integration techniques. In both cases, a computer simulation is carried out, and a comparison is made between the Bayesian and the corresponding minimum-variance unbiased, or maximum likelihood, estimates. As expected, the Bayesian estimates are superior.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Influence of meteorological conditions on aerosol vertical distribution and composition off the northeast American coastline

The size distribution and composition of lower tropospheric aerosols were measured off the northeast American coastline under clear air and disturbed meteorological conditions. Under the clear air conditions observed on 5 August 1982, with air flow from west to east, sulfate-rich stratified layers are the dominant feature of aerosol distribution in the lowest 3000 m of the troposphere. The encroachment of a warm frontal system over the study area on 9 August 1982 resulted in dramatic changes in aerosol distribution and composition prior to any precipitation, probably due to increased vertical mixing and dilution of pollutant aerosols. Chloride becomes the dominant water soluble anion in the lower 3000 m, primarily due to a several fold decrease in sulfate. Although these results are limited to only two sets of measurements, the data indicate the variability which can occur in the tropospheric vertical aerosol distributions at remote locations. A knowledge of the structure and stability of these stratified layers is of particular importance to studies of the ocean-troposphere chemistry problem.

Sebacher, D. I.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Weakly Informed Priors for FLEX Data

On behalf of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has reviewed the development and use of “weakly informed prior” (WIP) probability distributions to obtain industry-wide failure probability and rate distributions for portable “FLEX” equipment, as documented in the Pressurized Water Reactor Owner’s Group (PWROG) report, FLEX Equipment Data Collection and Analysis (PWROG 18043-P) by MM Degonish. The review includes a description of the methods used by the PWROG analysts. It also includes an implementation of those methods for comparison purposes and an implementation of two constrained-noninformative (CN) distributions for further WIP comparisons. The report documents several issues that the review identified in the development of the WIP distributions. They relate to the quality and representativeness of the current portable “FLEX” component data, the choice of informed distributions for related installed components, and the lack of verification for the factors chosen to weaken the information from the installed components. Two errors occurred in the computations: the posterior distribution of the WIP was used to modify the WIP itself, resulting in a lack of independence between the WIP and the data; and an error was made in the conversion of WIP mean and variance values to beta distributions. The INL reviewers think the WIP distributions presented in the report are untenable for use in risk assessments at the present time because of these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alleviating prior dependencies for DESI DR1 clustering fits through reparameterization

Bayesian analyses of the full-shape clustering of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) exhibit prior-volume projection effects, whereby weakly constrained nuisance parameters of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) shift marginalized cosmological posteriors away from the posterior maximum. We reanalyze DESI DR1 power spectrum multipoles using two complementary mitigation strategies: (i) nonlinear orthogonalization to decorrelate nuisance and cosmological parameter priors, and (ii) a fully reparameterization-invariant Jeffreys prior over all EFTofLSS coefficients, evaluated on-the-fly via closed-form Jacobians. Including data from DESI, Big-Bang Nuclesynthesis and a constraint on $n_{\mathrm{s}}$, baseline priors lead to multi-$σ$ projection in the Hubble parameter $H_{0}$ and dark energy equation of state parameters $w_{0}$ and $w_{a}$; the Jeffreys prior successfully recenters these posteriors to enclose the maximum a posteriori estimate within the 68% credible regions, demonstrating clear mitigation of projection effects for these late-time expansion parameters. A hybrid Jeffreys+baseline-Gaussian configuration controls residual over-broad tails in the physical cold dark matter density $ω_{\mathrm{c}}$ while preserving the volume correction, and is our favoured approach. We compare the credible intervals derived using our methodology to those obtained using Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors and to confidence intervals derived using frequentist profile likelihood analyses, finding agreement in both central values and degeneracy directions in the $w_{0}$--$w_{a}$ plane. This demonstrates that, once projection effects are properly controlled, we can make robust inferences about the late-time cosmological expansion independent of the statistical framework adopted.

Bonici, M. [Waterloo U.; Perimeter Inst. Theor. Ph↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model

Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systematic engineering for production of anti-aging sunscreen compound in Pseudomonas putida

Sunscreen has been used for thousands of years to protect skin from ultraviolet radiation. However, the use of modern commercial sunscreen containing oxybenzone, ZnO, and TiO 2 has raised concerns due to their negative effects on human health and the environment. In this study, we aim to establish an efficient microbial platform for production of shinorine, a UV light absorbing compound with anti-aging properties. First, we methodically selected an appropriate host for shinorine production by analyzing central carbon flux distribution data from prior studies alongside predictions from genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs). We enhanced shinorine productivity through CRISPRi-mediated downregulation and utilized shotgun proteomics to pinpoint potential competing pathways. Simultaneously, we improved the shinorine biosynthetic pathway by refining its design, optimizing promoter usage, and altering the strength of ribosome binding sites. Finally, we conducted amino acid feeding experiments under various conditions to identify the key limiting factors in shinorine production. The study combines meta-analysis of 13 C-metabolic flux analysis, GEMs, synthetic biology, CRISPRi-mediated gene downregulation, and omics analysis to improve shinorine production, demonstrating the potential of Pseudomonas putida KT2440 as platform for shinorine production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of RF Sheath-Driven Tungsten Erosion at RF Antenna in the WEST Tokamak

This study applies the newly developed STRIPE (Simulated Transport of RF Impurity Production and Emission) framework to analyze tungsten (W) erosion at RF antenna structures in the WEST tokamak. STRIPE integrates SolEdge3x for edge plasma backgrounds, COMSOL for 3D RF sheath potentials, RustBCA for sputtering yields, and GITR for impurity transport and ion energy–angle distributions. Building on prior work by Kumar et al. (2025) Nuclear Fusion, 65, 076039, which validated STRIPE for WEST ICRH discharge #57877, the present study provides a spatially resolved assessment of gross W erosion at both Q2 antenna limiters under ohmic and ICRH conditions. Simulations using 2D SolEdge3x profiles in COMSOL capture rectified sheath potentials exceeding 300 V, leading to strong upper-limiter localization. Both poloidal and toroidal asymmetries are observed and attributed to RF sheath effects, with modeled erosion patterns deviating from experiment—highlighting sensitivity to sheath geometry and plasma resolution. Erosion is driven primarily by high-charge-state oxygen ions (O6+–O8+), while D+ plays a negligible role. Assuming a plasma composition of 1% oxygen and 98% deuterium, STRIPE predicts a 30-fold increase in gross W erosion from ohmic to ICRH phases, consistent with a >25-fold rise in W-I (400.9 nm) brightness. Quantitative agreement is within 5% in the ohmic phase and 30% under ICRH, demonstrating predictive capability. Importantly, the study shows that the magnitude of ICRH-driven W erosion depends strongly on the concentration of light impurities (O, B, N, C), which drive sputtering through high charge states. Cleaner plasma conditions with reduced impurity content are therefore expected to substantially mitigate antenna W sources in WEST and other toroidal fusion devices. These findings establish STRIPE as a predictive framework for RF-induced plasma–material interactions and support its application to reactor-scale antenna design.

Kumar, Atul [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000277475210)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning to Unknot

We introduce natural language processing into the study of knot theory, as made natural by the braid word representation of knots. We study the UNKNOT problem of determining whether or not a given knot is the unknot. After describing an algorithm to randomly generate N-crossing braids and their knot closures and discussing the induced prior on the distribution of knots, we apply binary classification to the UNKNOT decision problem. We find that the Reformer and shared-QK Transformer network architectures outperform fully-connected networks, though all perform at 95% accuracy. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that accuracy increases with the length of the braid word, and that the networks learn a direct correlation between the confidence of their predictions and the degree of the Jones polynomial. Finally, we utilize reinforcement learning (RL) to find sequences of Markov moves and braid relations that simplify knots and can identify unknots by explicitly giving the sequence of unknotting actions. Trust region policy optimization (TRPO) performs consistently well, reducing 80% of the unknots with up to 96 crossings we tested to the empty braid word, and thoroughly outperformed other RL algorithms and random walkers. Studying these actions, we find that braid relations are more useful in simplifying to the unknot than one of the Markov moves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving qubit readout with hidden Markov models

We demonstrate the application of pattern recognition algorithms via hidden Markov models (HMM) for qubit readout. This scheme provides a state-path trajectory approach capable of detecting qubit-state transitions and makes for a robust classification scheme with higher starting-state assignment fidelity than when compared to a multivariate Gaussian or a support vector machine scheme. Therefore, the method also eliminates the qubit-dependent readout time optimization requirement in current schemes. Using a HMM state discriminator we estimate fidelities reaching the ideal limit. Unsupervised learning gives access to transition matrix, priors, and IQ distributions, providing a toolbox for studying qubit-state dynamics during strong projective readout.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗