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The feasibility of using the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP) and possible future machines with parallel architecture for weather prediction and climate simulation was studied. A shallow water model and a two-level primitive equations model were implemented.
The major objectives of this study are to test the validity of quasi-geostrophic (QG) dynamics, compared to primitive equation (PE) dynamics for modeling the effect of cyclone waves on the larger scale flow, and to study the formation of frontal cyclones and the dynamics of occluded frontogenesis. In order to extend the realism of the initial conditions over those used in earlier work of this nature and in order to include strong surface frontal zones in the initial conditions, a horizontal resolution on the order of 100 km between gridpoints is needed. In order to allow for integrations of up to two weeks simulated time and to keep the logistics and cost of the runs feasible, the horizontal domain of the models must be reduced. Based on work concerning polar lows, the tropospheric static stability was reduced and was also allowed to vary in different tropospheric layers. Previous work used a 'standard atmosphere' temperature lapse rate. Stratospheric stability remains unchanged. The use of one of these 'reduced stability' cases, with no surface frontal zone present resulted in the discovery of normal mode perturbations.
The GLA Fourth Order General Circulation Model was modified in 1984 to allow it to be run at a finer horizontal grid resolution. Previously the standard model versions integrated the primitive equations on a 4 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude grid. Forecasts made at this resolution are compared to others which were made using the finer 2 degree latitude by 2 1/2 degree longitude grid resolution. Three winter cases are included with initial conditions from 15 December 1978, 5 January 1979 and 21 January 1979. The 21 January 1979 initial conditions were taken from a GLAS analysis (experiment 2728) which incorporated the GLAS temperature retrievals. The other two cases used European Center Analysis for initial conditions. The forecasts were all verified against European Center Analysis.
The validity of quasi-geostrophic (QG) dynamics were tested on compared to primitive equation (PE) dynamics, for modeling the effect of cyclone waves on the larger scale flow. The formation of frontal cyclones and the dynamics of occluded frontogenesis were studied. Surface friction runs with the PE model and the wavelength of maximum instability is described. Also fine resolution PE simulation of a polar low is described.
A three-dimensional, spherical, primitive equation eigenvalue model is used to investigate the baroclinic stability properties of the wind and temperature fields in the Venus atmosphere as measured by Pioneer Venus. It is found that baroclinic instability occurs in the region of the middle cloud deck. The most unstable modes have growth times less than eight days and are vertically confined to the region near the middle cloud layer. The most unstable baroclinic mode at zonal wavenumber 2 has characteristics similar to those observed for the high latitude rotating dipole thermal feature. Certain planetary scale baroclinic modes can penetrate to relatively high altitudes under the right circumstances, and may therefore explain some of the wave features observed between 60 and 90 km. For example, thermal oscillations with periods between four and seven days occurring at middle latitudes have characteristics which appear to be consistent with computed properties of planetary scale baroclinic modes.
A multi-level, sigma coordinate, primitive equation atmospheric model has been utilized to study both the tropical and extratropical response to an isolated region of steady thermal forcing in the tropics. The nonlinear response during the first 28 days of the simulation is described. The response can be generally characterized by two distinct components. The first component is a quasi-stationary disturbance which extends eastward and poleward away from the source region along a 'great circle' path. The structure of this disturbance is essentially barotropic away from the source region. The second component is a growing baroclinic wave propagating zonally at mid-latitudes. Significantly, this disturbance is apparently the result of baroclinic instability induced by the quasi-stationary wavetrain. The discussion is predominantly heuristic in form and relies heavily on graphical presentation and quasi-geostrophic theory to interpret the response and individual components of the thermodynamic energy and momentum equations.
A linearized primitive equation model adapted to Venusian conditions was used to study thermal tidal anomalies in the Venus atmosphere exposed by Venus Orbiter IR sensors. The model received as input the IR data, mean zonal wind and solar input as functions of height and latitude, and the global mean static stability and Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction in relation to altitude. Basic state and forcing functions were defined for Venus, and the model generated brightness temperatures which could be compared with the IR data. The good correlations obtained suggest that the model accurately accounts for the low variation of phase with altitude and stronger semidiurnal oscillation features than diurnal oscillations. The model is concluded as a useful tool for assessing the role of thermal tides in maintaining Venus super rotation.
Numerical simulations of July mean monsoon circulation in the tropics are described. The model used in the simulations was based on a series of primitive equations for the combined effects of variations of solar radiation, radiative diurnal warming, and large-scale and deep cumulus condensation, and the kinematic effects of topography. The initial states of the model were derived from the observed mean distributions of pressure and humidity. Analysis of the numerical results showed that the large-scale features of the mean July monsoon circulation in the tropics are created mainly by differential diabatic heating under the influence of the specific topography. The time necessary to establish the large scale features was only about 5 days when the diurnal variation of solar radiation was taken into account. Graphic illustrations of the simulated mean July flow conditions are provided.
High-resolution calculations of the wintertime stationary atmospheric response to planetary scale topographic and thermal forcings have been made using a numerical model that solves the spherical primitive equations linearized about observed zonal wind and temperature fields. The model equations are presented and their numerical implementation is discussed. The model inputs and parameters are presented and the model's response to relativistic forcing is analyzed. In middle latitudes the response to topographic forcing strongly dominates the response to thermal forcing. In the midlatitude troposphere, the topographic response is insensitive to changes in the zonal wind. In the stratosphere, both the variance and mean are dominated by the topographic response. In general, the sensitivity of the planetary waves to changes in the zonal wind is found to be much smaller than other recent calculations have indicated.
A numerical study was performed of a severe weather event (tornado) which occurred on May 10, 1973 in the Ohio region. The situation was modeled with a primitive equation mesoscale dynamic formulation. Account was taken of precipitation, the planetary boundary layer parameters as bulk quantities, the vertical pressure gradient, and lateral boundary conditions based on radiosonde data. Two 12-hr simulations, adiabatic and nondivergent, respectively, were analyzed for relationships between upper and lower level jets. In the adiabatic formulation, a transverse circulation with a low level jet formed at the exit region of the upper level jet. The nondivergent situation led to similar, but weaker, phenomena. Both forms suggest that indirect circulation in the exit zone of an upper level jet is strongly influenced by the initial structure of the jet.
A nongeostrophic theory of zonally averaged circulation is formulated using the nonlinear primitive equations on a sphere, taking advantage of the more direct relationship between the mean meridional circulation and diabatic heating rate which is available in isentropic coordinates. Possible differences between results of nongeostrophic theory and the commonly used geostrophic formulation are discussed concerning: (1) the role of eddy forcing of the diabatic circulation, and (2) the nonlinear nearly inviscid limit vs the geostrophic limit. Problems associated with the traditional Rossby number scaling in quasi-geostrophic formulations are pointed out and an alternate, more general scaling based on the smallness of mean meridional to zonal velocities for a rotating planet is suggested. Such a scaling recovers the geostrophic balanced wind relationship for the mean zonal flow but reveals that the mean meridional velocity is in general ageostrophic.
The work undertaken during this period included two primary efforts. The first is a continuation of theoretical development from the previous year of models and data analyses for NDE using the Optical Thermal Infra-Red Measurement System (OPTITHIRMS) system, which involves heat injection with a laser and observation of the resulting thermal pattern with an infrared imaging system. The second is an investigation into the use of the thermoelastic effect as an effective tool for NDE. As in the past, the effort is aimed towards NDE techniques applicable to composite materials in structural applications. The theoretical development described produced several models of temperature patterns over several geometries and material types. Agreement between model data and temperature observations was obtained. A model study with one of these models investigated some fundamental difficulties with the proposed method (the primitive equation method) for obtaining diffusivity values in plates of thickness and supplied guidelines for avoiding these difficulties. A wide range of computing speeds was found among the various models, with a one-dimensional model based on Laplace's integral solution being both very fast and very accurate.
Studies have linked elements of the stratospheric circulation with particular localized features in the tropospheric circulation. This suggests a study of the response of the stratosphere to forcing by localized disturbances in the troposphere. A multilevel, primitive equation model is used of the stratosphere and mesosphere the height of whose lower boundary at 300 mb can be prescribed. Localized height disturbances which grow to steady amplitude are applied at this lower boundary, and the response of the initially axially symmetric stratosphere is studied. The perturbation, centered at 45 deg N, has a Gaussian distribution with a half width of 15 deg., corresponding roughly to the size of persistent troughs and blocking ridges in the troposphere. The forcing is nearly at fully amplitude 10 days after being switched on, and thereafter remains steady. Two types of experiments are conducted: in one the forcing is of small amplitude (100 gpm) and in the other it is of large amplitude (600 gpm). These pairs of experiments are compared to determine how nonlinear processes affect the perturbation fields. This is done locally by defining the perturbation response to the forcing as an anomaly, i.e., as a departure from the response in a controlled experiment in which no asymmetric forcing was applied at the lower boundary of the model. Experiments have been conducted for a number of atmospheric states obtained as zonal means of observations made by a stratospheric sounding unit (SSU). In this summary, results for the zonal mean flow on January 19, 1982 are outlined.
The generation of mean zonal winds and planetary waves induced by internal gravity wave packets are investigated by numerical experiments. The numerical model is a 3-dimensional primitive equation model on the equatorial beta-plane with boundaries at the equator and North Pole. Because of equatorial boundary conditions, equatorial symmetric modes only are included in the model. Internal gravity wave packets are produced by thermal heating at the bottom boundary. Because of restriction of grid size, convective instability is parameterized by time-independent vertical and horizontal eddy viscosity. Other dissipation mechanisms (e.g., Newtonian cooling, ion drag, molecular viscosity etc.) are also included in the model.
Use of the residual circulation for stratospheric tracer transport has been compared to a fully three-dimensional calculation. The wind fields used in this study were obtained from a global, semispectral, primitive equation model, extending from 10 to 100 km in altitude. Comparisons were done with a passive tracer and an ozone-like substance over a two-month period corresponding to a Northern Hemisphere winter. It was found that the use of the residual circulation can lead to errors in the tracer concentrations of about a factor of 2. The error is made up of two components. One is fluctuating with a period of approximately one month and reflects directly the wave transience that occurs on that time-scale. The second part is increasing steadily over the integration period and results from an overestimate of the vertical transport by the residual circulation. Furthermore, the equatorward and upward mixing that occurs with transport by the three-dimensional circulation at low latitudes is not well reproduced when the residual circulation is used.
Profiles of retrieved satellite observed temperatures provided to the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) by the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service were used to enhance the specification of atmospheric conditions during three winter periods. Introduction of the satellite data was via three alternative schemes, and the enhanced specifications were used to initialize 48-hour numerical forecasts with the IMS five-layer primitive equation model; control forecasts were run in parallel from initial conditions without the satellite data. The study selects one forecast from each period for which discernible impacts on forecast synoptic fields can be attributed to the different initializations. The first two case studies examine the results of only one assimilation scheme and the third relates to all three schemes. Verification of the prognostics show the positive impact of including satellite temperatures in the initialization, but there were also examples of negative impact.
The quasi-geostrophic form of the Eliassen-Palm flux is calculated for steady linear planetary wave 1 in a realistic zonal flow with dissipation. This flux shows a region of divergence in the polar stratosphere that is similar to that found in time averages of observations. Comparison with the full primitive equation form of the Eliassen-Palm flux indicates that in the model this divergent region is spurious and results from the overestimation of the momentum flux divergence when it is calculated from geostrophic winds. An approximate expression for the Eliassen-Palm flux in terms of balanced winds is suggested as an alternative to the quasi-geostrophic form.
The research goal was a variational data assimilation method that incorporates as dynamical constraints, the primitive equations for a moist, convectively unstable atmosphere and the radiative transfer equation. Variables to be adjusted include the three-dimensional vector wind, height, temperature, and moisture from rawinsonde data, and cloud-wind vectors, moisture, and radiance from satellite data. This presents a formidable mathematical problem. In order to facilitate thorough analysis of each of the model components, four variational models that divide the problem naturally according to increasing complexity are defined. Each model is summarized.