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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Requirements and Recommendations for a Physical Attack Characterization Framework

This study seeks to identify existing frameworks or develop requirements and recommendations for a new framework that can consistently characterize physical attacks, analogous to MITRE ATT&CK®. MITRE ATT&CK is widely used across government, research organizations, and the cyber security community to characterize cyber attack tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) in a consistent and commonly understood manner. While physical attack taxonomies, methodologies, and other tools for evaluating physical security do exist, many are sector and/or facility-type specific—and therefore not able to provide comparable scenarios across sectors—or are more focused on security assessment instead of the characterization of attacks themselves. A MITRE ATT&CK analog for physical attacks on critical infrastructure would provide a common language and structure for analysis of physical attacks. Existing attack characterization methodologies do not robustly address cyber-physical security risks. To fully understand a facility’s security needs, it is important to understand the entire vulnerability landscape from both a physical and a cyber perspective. To underscore this need, organizations such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are calling for a coordinated approach to cyber and physical security, which they refer to as cyber and physical security convergence. A physical attack characterization framework that could be used jointly with MITRE ATT&CK would help support a more robust analysis in support of convergence, enabling the consistent characterization of attacks that utilize both cyber and physical tactics and techniques. This could provide analysts and stakeholders with a clearer understanding of how security mitigations deployed in the physical realm impact security risks in the cyber realm, and vice versa. In this study, the project team evaluates existing physical security taxonomies and methodologies to assess whether an existing method can be used to create a “physical half” of MITRE ATT&CK. This study then provides requirements and recommendations for a framework that can leverage aspects of existing methodologies. The goal of the final framework is for it to be widely adopted and referenced, regardless of critical infrastructure sector, facility type, or facility components. This study also identifies applicable use cases for when and how a framework could be applied across the various critical infrastructure sectors for a variety of attack types or motivations. Through a literature review of existing security-focused methodologies and taxonomies, engagement with relative stakeholders, evaluation of potential physical attack framework use cases, and subsequent identification of requirements, this study identified the following key findings and recommendations: There is a need for a new physical attack characterization framework; A physical attack framework should be interoperable with the MITRE ATT&CK framework; A physical attack framework should be broadly applicable, but with detailed tactics, techniques, and procedures that encompass the entire attack path; A physical attack framework should be based on observed or feasible events; A physical attack framework should adapt features from existing methodologies, frameworks, and taxonomies; A physical attack framework should be owned, overseen, and maintained by one organization.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging graph clustering techniques for cyber‐physical system analysis to enhance disturbance characterisation

Abstract Cyber‐physical systems have behaviour that crosses domain boundaries during events such as planned operational changes and malicious disturbances. Traditionally, the cyber and physical systems are monitored separately and use very different toolsets and analysis paradigms. The security and privacy of these cyber‐physical systems requires improved understanding of the combined cyber‐physical system behaviour and methods for holistic analysis. Therefore, the authors propose leveraging clustering techniques on cyber‐physical data from smart grid systems to analyse differences and similarities in behaviour during cyber‐, physical‐, and cyber‐physical disturbances. Since clustering methods are commonly used in data science to examine statistical similarities in order to sort large datasets, these algorithms can assist in identifying useful relationships in cyber‐physical systems. Through this analysis, deeper insights can be shared with decision‐makers on what cyber and physical components are strongly or weakly linked, what cyber‐physical pathways are most traversed, and the criticality of certain cyber‐physical nodes or edges. This paper presents several types of clustering methods for cyber‐physical graphs of smart grid systems and their application in assessing different types of disturbances for informing cyber‐physical situational awareness. The collection of these clustering techniques provide a foundational basis for cyber‐physical graph interdependency analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the Useability of the IAEA's Physical Model: An Analysis of User Feedback

This study presents the results of Physical Model user interviews conducted with 12 people who have International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards experience. The goal of this report is to provide additional context for policy makers when prioritizing the needs of the IAEA regarding support for enhancements to the Physical Model. The interviews covered the general usability of the Physical Model, its effectiveness as a technical reference, and the scope and utility of the Physical Model's indicators and content. The key conclusions from these interviews are as follows: 1) The Physical Model is difficult to find and not well advertised. 2) The Physical Model can be difficult to use due to its format, which makes searching for information difficult, and lack of visual content. Therefore, the Physical Model should be supported in multiple formats (print, PDF, web) to maximize its usability for different stakeholders. 3) The scope of the Physical Model's content and indicators is likely sufficient, and translating indicators into other languages is unlikely to be worth the effort. 4) Despite its inefficiencies and other issues, the Physical Model in its current form is a vital (albeit under-utilized) resource for key stakeholders. 5) Despite its broad use case the Physical Model is not a catch-all tool and force-fitting the Physical Model into functions for which it has not been designed for would likely diminish its value. 6) It can be difficult to disentangle challenges related to the Physical Model and its usability from broader challenges at the Agency, such as general issues with communication and coordination. Based on these conclusions and considering the results of past studies on the Physical Model funded by NA-241, the analysis team developed a list of recommendations and associated actions for IAEA consideration. These recommendations are prioritized based on the assessed level of difficulty for the IAEA to implement a recommendation, emphasizing low hanging fruit then building to more ambitious changes to the Physical Model's format and content.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Progress in pedestal and edge physics: Chapter 3 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This paper describes the extensive progress that has been made in the understanding of tokamak pedestal physics since the 2007 publication of ‘Progress in the ITER Physics Basis’ (Ikeda 2007 Nucl. Fusion 47 E01–S500). It serves as Chapter 3 of the 2025 Nuclear Fusion Special Issue titled ‘On the Path to Tokamak Burning Plasma Operation’ (Campbell et al 2025 Nucl. Fusion ). This review was compiled by the pedestal and edge physics (PEP) community affiliated with the International Tokamak Physics Activity organization. It attempts to collect in one place citations to the majority of published literature on the pedestal physics topics that will be most important for the operation of a future power producing burning plasma tokamak. These include citations to publications describing the physics of the pedestal plasmas in many operating tokamaks worldwide and the pedestal physics projections for several near-term future devices including ITER. Descriptions of experimental results, interpretive modeling and predictive extrapolations are integrated together and comprehensive references are provided. This review is organized around four primary technical sections, viz.: pedestal structure, edge localized mode (ELM) characteristics, ELM control and regimes without large ELMs. Key results from many of the references are described briefly and set into the tokamak burning plasma power plant context. In addition, different perspectives on pedestal physics topics that are currently under debate within the community are also described, to provide guidance on needs for future research. Finally, attempts are made to describe conclusions from all of this progress consistent with discussions by the pedestal physics community at this time. The goal of this review is to provide a useful reference document for pedestal physics researchers going forward toward operation of a burning tokamak fusion plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Promoting Physical Activity During Pregnancy and the Postpartum Period

Introduction Physical activity is important for improving and maintaining overall health across the life span, including during and after pregnancy. Achieving recommended levels of physical activity can be challenging during pregnancy and the postpartum period. The US Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion sought to promote physical activity during and after pregnancy through the development of health education materials for the Move Your Way campaign. Research was conducted with pregnant and postpartum people to learn what types of messages and materials would encourage physical activity in these populations. Methods Participants were recruited from 3 regions of the United States to participate in 90‐minute virtual focus groups. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older and either pregnant or 6 weeks to 1 year postpartum. Participants were asked questions about their beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions about physical activity and prompted to provide feedback on health promotion messages and images. Sessions were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed for key themes. Results Twenty‐four focus groups were conducted with 48 pregnant participants and 52 postpartum participants. Sixteen sessions were conducted in English and 8 were conducted in Spanish. Most participants had questions about how much physical activity is recommended, and many cited their health care provider as a trusted source of information. Participants responded positively to materials that acknowledged the uniqueness of each pregnant or postpartum experience, referenced gradually increasing physical activity levels, highlighted the benefits of physical activity, focused on safety, addressed common barriers, and displayed realistic representations of physical activity. Discussion There is an opportunity to improve messaging about physical activity during and after pregnancy. To better promote physical activity, perinatal health care providers and other health professionals can share information about recommended amounts of physical activity, communicate the benefits, and promote realistic and achievable physical activity messages that address common barriers in these populations.

Nursing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Final Technical Report for U.S.-Japan Hadronic Physics Exchange Program for Studies of Hadron Structure and QCD

Nuclear physics explores the fundamental properties of matter -- how protons and neutrons emerge as quantum systems of elementary particles, how they form the atomic nuclei, and how they give rise to the wide variety of phenomena and applications at biological, technical, and astronomical scales. It is a global scientific effort centered around large-scale experimental user facilities (particle accelerators and detectors), advanced theoretical methods and concepts, and computational techniques and resources. Exchange of knowledge and ideas, scientific collaboration, and workforce development on a global scale are essential for the future of the field. The nuclear physics program envisaged in the 2023 DOE/NSF NSAC Long-Range Plan and pursued at the U.S. National Labs has strong synergies with programs at other facilities worldwide and will realize significant benefits from international collaboration. Nuclear physics is also recognized for promoting international cooperation in the broadest sense through joint construction and operation of experimental equipment, personal contacts between scientists, and education and training. The U.S.-Japan Hadronic Physics Exchange Program (USJPHE) supported collaborative scientific research in hadronic physics and quantum chromodynamics. USJHPE focused on subject areas related to the programs at current and future experimental facilities in the U.S.\ and Japan and supported both experimental and theoretical studies. USJHPE particularly aimed to realize synergies between the hadronic physics programs at Jefferson Lab 12 GeV and J-PARC resulting from the complementarity of electromagnetic and hadronic probes in the multi-GeV energy range. Subject areas of common interest included the quark-gluon structure of hadrons and nuclei, meson and baryon spectroscopy, strangeness and hypernuclear physics, and other related topics. USJHPE also supported research in hadronic physics and nuclear-physics-enabled tests of fundamental symmetries related to the programs at Brookhaven National Lab, Fermilab, KEK, Spring-8, and university-based facilities in the U.S. and Japan. USJHPE especially promoted collaboration between the U.S. and Japanese nuclear physics communities in developing the physics program and instrumentation for the future Electron-Ion Collider. USJHPE was intended to provide travel grants to U.S.-based scientists (primary institutional affiliation with a U.S.\ university, national laboratory, or other research center) to visit Japanese institutions and conduct collaborative research there. The program supported senior researchers, postdoctoral fellows, and students. Continuing the setup of the preceding grant period, J-PARC served as the Japanese “hub” for U.S. physicists for short- and long-term visits, and JLab served as the corresponding U.S. “hub”. The program was officially managed through the U. of Connecticut in Storrs, CT. Support for Japanese physicists visiting the U.S. was provided through funds from Japanese funding agencies. The USJHPE program promoted the scientific exchange and the collaborative spirit in hadronic physics between the two countries.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly detection for cyber-physical systems

An anomaly detector is configured to construct cyber and/or physical features comprising information configured to characterize the cyber and/or physical state of a cyber-physical system. The physical features may be based on physical and/or physics-based relationships between a plurality of physical state attributes. A health of the cyber-physical system may be based on an error between estimates of one or more of the physical state attributes and measurements of the one or more physical state attributes. The relationships may be incorporated into machine learning membership functions used to classify cyber and/or physical behavior of the system.

Rieger, Craig G.↗

DOE OSTI2023

SCALE 6.2 Lattice Physics Performance Assessment

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relies on the lattice physics analysis capabilities of the SCALE code system to perform confirmatory licensing analyses. Either SCALE lattice physics code—TRITON/NEWT or Polaris—can be used to generate cross section data used by the PARCS nodal core simulator for full-core neutronics calculations. This report presents an assessment of the accuracy of SCALE lattice physics codes for preparation of lattice physics data that are used to support simulator codes such as the NRC’s PARCS, for UO 2 -mixed oxide (MOX)/Zr fueled light water reactor (LWR) analyses. Due to the nature of lattice physics calculations, critical reactor experiment benchmarks cannot be modeled in explicit detail in a lattice physics code. However, this limitation does not mean that these measurement data are not usable for lattice physics studies. Therefore, either geometry approximations or axial buckling must be implemented to determine the critical water height. These modeling limitations have led to development of a three-phase assessment strategy. In the first phase, selected critical experiment benchmarks are modeled using the SCALE 3D continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo (MC) code KENO, which is the most rigorous neutron transport method available in SCALE, with no approximations in the spatial, angle, or energy treatments. Biases and statistical uncertainties in quantities of interest such as k eff and pin power distributions are determined by comparing CE KENO results to experimental data. This first phase in the accuracy assessment is to demonstrate and establish the use of CE KENO as a reference solution for the second phase. In the second phase, 14 numerical test suites are used to compare SCALE lattice physics calculations with CE KENO as a reference solution. In the third phase, SCALE lattice physics depletion calculations are performed, and the spent fuel isotopic results are compared with available radiochemical assay measurements. Isotopic measurement comparisons provide quantitative assessment of isotopic density distribution predictions with the depletion models in SCALE lattice physics codes. This report documents results for all test suites. The assessment was performed using standard production techniques unless otherwise noted. Both TRITON/NEWT and Polaris exhibited acceptable accuracy for most test cases. For the few test cases in which acceptable accuracy criteria were not met, further code and data development are planned. The computer codes used in this assessment are as follows: SCALE 6.2 rev19189 (pre-release of 6.2.1) was used for CE KENO, TRITON/NEWT and Polaris (PWR only) calculations; SCALE 6.2.2 was used for Polaris calculations to address several updates in support of support boiling water reactor (BWR) lattice geometries. For this work, there is no difference between SCALE 6.2.1 and SCALE 6.2.2 beyond the inclusion of the Polaris BWR analysis capability; The ENDF/B-VII.1 continuous energy and 252 group libraries deployed in SCALE 6.2 were generated with AMPX 6.2 that is distributed with SCALE.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Floor and ceiling effects in the EORTC QLQ-C30 Physical Functioning subscale among patients with advanced or metastatic breast cancer

The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 Physical Functioning subscale is a widely used patient-reported outcome measure that quantifies cancer patients' physical functioning. Strong floor/ceiling effects can affect a scale's sensitivity to change. The aim of this study was to characterize floor/ceiling effects of the physical functioning domain in patients with advanced/metastatic breast cancer enrolled in commercial clinical trials and a community-based trial. The clinical trial cohort comprised patients from 5 registrational trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration for review (2010-2017). The community cohort comprised a subgroup of patients from the Alliance Patient Reported Outcomes to Enhance Cancer Treatment (PRO-TECT) trial. The distribution of patient responses to Physical Functioning items and the summed score were assessed at the baseline and 3-month follow-up for both cohorts. Descriptive statistics were used to determine floor/ceiling effects at the item and scale levels. The clinical trial cohort and the community cohort consisted of 2407 and 178 patients, respectively. Twenty-four percent or more of the respondents reported “not at all” for having trouble/needing help with each Physical Functioning item across both cohorts and measurement time points. Fourteen to twenty percent of the patients scored perfectly (100 of 100) on the Physical Functioning subscale summary measure (where higher scores indicated better physical functioning) across both cohorts and time points. Minor floor effects and notable ceiling effects were found at the item and scale levels of the Physical Functioning subscale, regardless of cohort, and this creates some uncertainty about its ability to detect changes in physical functioning among high-functioning patients. In conclusion, investigators may consider adding additional high-functioning items from the EORTC's item library to more accurately describe the impact of anticancer treatment on patients' physical functioning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Wonders of Physics -- Public Outreach (Final Technical Report)

The mission of The Wonders of Physics (TWoP) outreach program is to generate interest in physics among people of all ages and backgrounds. The objective is to generate interest in physics, increase appreciation for the significance of physics in our lives, and encourage children to consider careers in science and plasma physics. The primary means for achieving that objective is to make entertaining presentations to audiences that would not normally be motivated to attend a lecture on physics or plasmas, while at the same time introducing some of the fundamental concepts and applications. During this reporting period, the students Michael Hall, Megan Tabbutt and Connor Sullivan, Director of Communications Sarah Perdue, Director of Undergraduate Program Jim Reardon, and Senior Information Processing Consultant Paul Wilhite worked to make outreach programs a success and prepare for the future of The Wonders of Physics, which will continue. Because of the curtailment of public events due to Covid-19, there will not be an in person Annual Show or Physics Fair in 2021, but a video competition has already been announced and planning continues for The Wonders of Physics in 2022 and beyond. The annual shows and Physics Fair are scheduled for February 12-13 and February 19-20, 2022. These continue to be our premier outreach events, engaging diverse audiences in real hands-on science. Further shows and exploration stations are planned.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics Guided Simulation of Electrostatic Discharge: Technical Report

Triboelectrically-charged objects may create threshold sparks, electrostatic discharge (ESD) events, to equilibrate charge between themselves and other relatively charged objects. ESD events exhibit many complex physical phenomena. They are a nexus of several fields of physics with disparate characteristic scales: plasma physics, chemical kinetics, hydrodynamics, circuit models, etc. These scales can span many orders of magnitude from the varied collisions thermalizing information within a plasma on the $\mathcal{O}(fs/ps)$ to the physical size of the plasma channel on the $\mathcal{O}(100µm)$, to the speed of a nonlinear hydrodynamic wave propagating at $\mathcal{O}(µm, ns)$. These threshold ESD events may occur in situations of programmatic importance, delivering energy and power profiles to a “victim load” generating deleterious consequences. To predict and mitigate these consequences we must answer questions about the spark’s energy budget: how much energy goes into producing the spark channel; how much gets radiated away; how much energy is advected away into the hydrodynamics; and how much energy is delivered to a victim load. An ESD simulation toolset has been created and evolved in order to answer these questions. An appropriate, physics guided implementation for simulation can be done by gaining insight into its constituent physics and leveraging that intuition to choose a suitable numerical operator. We examine in detail the chemical kinetics, circuit discharge, and hydrodynamics to deter mine dominant regimes, values, timescales, and interactions to uncover the underlying physical dynamics. We also examine and propose model reduction schemes for high-dimensional chemical kinetics. We use past and current work with experimentally validated and theoretically-verified hydrodynamics to calculate applicability limits of the non-ionizing strong shock limit. We quantify the energy budget from a hydrodynamic perspective and demonstrate that a significant fraction of the stored energy is “earmarked” for hydrodynamic advection as an energy terminus. Lastly, we combine the constituent physics of an ESD event (chemical kinetics, circuit model, and hydrodynamics) into a cohesive, actionable toolset and obtain promising results from an isothermal test case. We then propose a viable, modular evolution of the ESD toolset based upon the performed examination of the physics uncovering dominant physical scales and the stiffness of the compositional differential system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Cyber-Physical Situational Awareness for Energy Systems: A Secure Foundation for Next-Generation Energy Management

This document provides the final report for the CYPRES project. The purpose is (1) to highlight and summarize its major accomplishments and (2) to provide guidance on how its outcomes have informed and can inform important additional research and technology transfer. The goal of CYPRES was the research, development, and demonstration of a security-oriented next generation cyber-physical EMS for electric power systems that detects malicious and abnormal events through the fusion of cyber and physical data. To achieve this, the CYPRES project team researched, developed, and built a prototype of the solution, referred to as the CYPRES EMS. The CYPRES EMS is a proof-of-concept cyber-physical platform that demonstrates the management of the energy system, communications, security, and cyber-physical grid modeling and analytics. As part of the capabilities of the CYPRES EMS, the team designed and developed a suite of power system applications for monitoring, risk analyses, detection, and control that are inherently cyberaware. At its core, the project aimed to research, develop, and demonstrate a security-oriented next-generation cyber-physical Energy Management System (EMS) capable of detecting malicious and abnormal events through the innovative fusion of cyber and physical data. This approach represents a fundamental shift from traditional EMS, reimagining how critical infrastructure can be protected through unified cyber-aware and physics-aware secure data flow pipelines. The project’s cornerstone deliverable, the CYPRES EMS, serves as a proof-of-concept cyber-physical platform that revolutionizes the management of energy systems, communications, security, and cyber-physical grid modeling and analytics. This prototype implements a comprehensive suite of power system applications for monitoring, risk analyses, detection, and control, all designed with inherent cyber awareness. The system’s architecture extends from end-devices in the field through to control center applications, establishing a secure and resilient control framework that addresses the challenges posed by diverse devices of unknown trustworthiness connecting to modern power systems. Through this innovative approach to deep cyber-physical situational awareness, the CYPRES project not only advances the state-of-the-art in energy infrastructure protection but also establishes a new paradigm for how EMS can be designed, deployed, and operated in an increasingly complex threat landscape. The findings and developments from this project provide crucial insights for stakeholders across the energy sector, offering a blueprint for enhancing the reliability and resilience of our nation’s critical energy infrastructure in the face of evolving cyber threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying physical parameterization uncertainties associated with land-atmosphere interactions in the WRF model over Amazon

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations but subjected to uncertainties associated with model physical parameterizations. In this study, we propose a framework to quantify and reduce model physical parameterization uncertainties associated with surface fluxes and L-A coupling. An ensemble of WRF simulations with different physical schemes is used to simulate surface fluxes and land-atmosphere coupling strength over the Amazon region. The physical parameterizations investigated include cloud microphysics (MP), land surface processes (LSM), planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface layer (SL), and cumulus (CU). We perform 120 ensemble simulations using the WRF model and different combinations of six MPs, three LSMs, six PBLs and SLs and three CUs. The measurements from the GoAMAZON field campaign and satellite data are used to evaluate model performance. A Multi-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is applied to quantify the relative importance of different physics processes on L-A coupling. The Tukey’s test is used to sort schemes that have no significant differences into one group. The suite of physics that result in the best simulations of the corresponding variables are selected based on the Taylor skill score. Results show that the relative importance of processes and their interaction vary with the variables of interest. For example, CU was the most important process in modulating soil moisture, 2 m-humidity, latent heat, and net radiation. LSM showed dominant effects on 2 m-temperature and also has the largest impact on sensible heat and the lifting condensation level. The best physical parameterization ensembles show much narrower ranges of the variables of interest than the priori ensemble. Results of this study show the roles of different physical processes in modulating L-A interactions, quantify model uncertainties from physical processes, and provide insights for improving the model physics parameterizations.

Wang, Chen↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Physics Representation of Deep Learning Models in Environmental Applications

Deep learning (DL) models have been popular in earth and environmental modeling and analysis, which exhibit huge potential in capturing and reconstructing the non-linearity of relevant environmental processes. They are extensively used as analytical tools or emulators for multiple domains (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and biogeochemistry). Despite their success, their internal working mechanism remains largely unknown. Such a lack of knowledge hinders the identification of physically consistent models that are fully adaptive to non-stationary climate, as well as the development of physics-informed machine learning such as physics-informed neural network (PINN). To establish preliminary knowledge and framework of such physics representation evaluation, this project focuses on an improved understanding of DL models in the environmental applications. DL models are increasingly applied to environmental modeling and prediction. However, they have been evaluated mostly from a performance perspective, and there is a gap in understanding how they represent the known physics internally. Such knowledge is especially critical when applying DL models under climate change conditions, where new inputs are likely outside the ranges of the training datasets. In this project, we reveal how the known physical processes are represented within DL models from both statistical and mechanistic perspectives. Leveraging the traditional model evaluations that focus more on the accuracies of predictions, we establish a framework that examines both the accuracy and physics representation of DL models. This analysis framework can identify DL models that make the correct predictions based on correct physics, thus enhancing the existing explainable artificial intelligence (explainable-AI) portfolio. It lays a foundation for developing novel metrics to evaluate the emerging DL models in environmental applications. This knowledge also informs the development of physics-informed DL models by revealing the direct connections between the known physical processes and specific model components or structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncovering New Physics in the Cosmic Microwave Background: Developing Novel Theoretical Models and Machine-Learning-Powered Constraints

The search for evidence of new physics via its signatures in the cosmos is a cornerstone goal of the Office of High Energy Physics in the DOE Office of Science. Indeed, the current concordance cosmological model provides intriguing hints for beyond-the-standard-model (BSM) physics, such as dark matter and dark energy. Recently, a potential breakdown has appeared in this model, which could be initial evidence toward a further important revision in our fundamental theoretical understanding of cosmology. This breakdown is reflected in disagreements between inferences of the current expansion rate of the universe, H 0 (the Hubble constant), based on indirect, cosmological data (e.g., from the early universe) and based on direct, local measurements. Despite significant effort, a compelling new concordance cosmological model has yet to be found; achieving significant progress on this front was the first major focus of the project. Theoretical considerations indicate that if the observational discrepancies are not due to systematic errors, they strongly suggest new physics operating in the redshift range just prior to recombination, when cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons last scattered. Crucially, almost all such models produce unique signatures in the CMB temperature and polarization power spectra, which will be measured with unprecedented precision by ongoing and upcoming experiments, including the DOE-supported CMB-S4 project. However, these subtle hints of new physics must be uncovered from beneath a swath of Galactic and extragalactic foreground contamination. Current CMB analysis methods, although powerful, do not optimally infer the CMB power spectrum in the presence of non-Gaussian foregrounds. There is thus scope for theoretical improvement in this foundational challenge of cosmological inference, which formed the second major focus of the project. The primary objectives of the project were two-fold: (1) to develop new theoretical models in cosmology that can restore concordance amongst the full suite of cosmological data sets, thereby potentially providing evidence of novel BSM physics; (2) to develop new theoretical machinery to enable significant sensitivity improvements in searches for new physics in cosmology, particularly via the CMB power spectrum. The two objectives are intertwined, as the analysis methodology improvements in (2) will enable the tightest possible constraints on the signatures of new physics predicted by the novel scenarios in (1). The theoretical approaches to restore concordance focused on models involving novel scalar field dynamics in the pre-recombination universe (the “early dark energy” scenario and modifications thereof), as well as couplings between this field and other components in the standard cosmological model, such as dark matter. We also studied a model featuring a generalization of the decaying dark matter scenario, in which a sub-component of dark matter converts into dark radiation at late times in cosmic history. While these ideas are mostly driven by phenomenological considerations, this tactic has proven extremely successful in cosmology throughout the past few decades, including in the early history of evidence for dark matter and dark energy. The new theoretical machinery envisioned in (2) is undergirded by developments in signal processing and machine learning, which will enable improvements in CMB power spectrum estimation in the presence of non-Gaussian foreground contaminants. In turn, this will yield optimal sensitivity in searches for new physics in the CMB, by maximizing the cosmological information that is extracted from this observable. The most ambitious outcome of this work would be the construction of a new cosmological model that restores concordance amongst data sets. Although the individual models studied here did not fully achieve that goal, significant progress in narrowing down the model space was made, as described below. Moreover, the outcome of the methodological improvements in (2) will significantly impact a wide range of theoretical cosmology, by enabling the tightest possible constraints on any model that leaves novel signatures in the CMB temperature and polarization power spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Report of the 2021 U.S. Community Study on the Future of Particle Physics (Snowmass 2021) Summary Chapter

The 2021-22 High-Energy Physics Community Planning Exercise (a.k.a. ``Snowmass 2021'') was organized by the Division of Particles and Fields of the American Physical Society. Snowmass 2021 was a scientific study that provided an opportunity for the entire U.S. particle physics community, along with its international partners, to identify the most important scientific questions in High Energy Physics for the following decade, with an eye to the decade after that, and the experiments, facilities, infrastructure, and R&D needed to pursue them. This Snowmass summary report synthesizes the lessons learned and the main conclusions of the Community Planning Exercise as a whole and presents a community-informed synopsis of U.S. particle physics at the beginning of 2023. This document, along with the Snowmass reports from the various subfields, will provide input to the 2023 Particle Physics Project Prioritization Panel (P5) subpanel of the U.S. High-Energy Physics Advisory Panel (HEPAP), and will help to guide and inform the activity of the U.S. particle physics community during the next decade and beyond.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Plasma proteomic biomarkers of physical frailty in heart failure: a propensity score matched discovery-based pilot study

Background: Physical frailty is highly prevalent in heart failure (HF), but we lack an understanding of the underlying pathophysiology. Proteomics evaluation of plasma samples may elucidate potential mechanisms and biomarkers of physical frailty in HF. We aimed to identify plasma proteomic biomarkers that are differentially expressed between physically frail and non physically frail adults with HF. Methods: This was a secondary analysis of a subset of data and plasma samples from a study of frailty among patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) Functional Classification I-IV HF. Physical frailty was measured using the Frailty Phenotype Criteria. Propensity score matching was used to match pairs of physically frail (n = 20) vs. non-physically frail (n = 20) patients on clinical characteristics. Plasma samples were processed using a sensitive liquid chromatography mass spectrometry platform, utilizing a multiplexed tandem mass tag-labeled quantitative proteomics approach. Differentially expressed proteins were quantified individually using paired t tests with associated log fold change of 0.3 and Fisher’s combined p values. Results: The sample (n = 40) was 62.8±16.9 years old, 58% female, and 55% NYHA Class III/IV. Proteomics analysis revealed 7 proteins differentially expressed using full differential criteria: matrix metalloproteinase-14 was downregulated in frailty, and copine-1, low affinity immunoglobulin gamma Fc region receptor III-A and III-B, probable non-functional immunoglobulin kappa variable 2D-24, glutathione S-transferase Mu 1, and argininosuccinate lyase were upregulated in frailty. Conclusions: Proteomic biomarkers related to the immune system, stress response, and detoxification were differentially expressed between physically frail and non-physically frail adults with HF.

Biomarkers↗