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At least 127 records · Page 7

Digital Twin Empowered PV Power Prediction

The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is significant to ensure the economic and safe operation of power systems. To this end, the paper proposes a new digital twin (DT) empowered PV power prediction framework that is capable of ensuring reliable data transmission and employing the DT to achieve high accuracy of power prediction. With this framework, considering potential data contamination in the collected PV data, a generative adversarial network is employed to restore the historical data set, which offers a prerequisite to ensure accurate mapping from the physical space to the digital space. Further, a new DT empowered PV power prediction method is proposed. Therein, we model a DT that encompasses a digital physical model for reflecting the physical operation mechanism and a neural network model (i.e., a parallel network of convolution and bidirectional long-short-term memory model) for capturing the hidden spatial-temporal features. The proposed method enables the use of the DT to take advantages of the digital physical model and the neural network model, resulting in enhanced prediction accuracy. Finally, a real data set is conducted to access the effectiveness of the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Model Predictive Control-Based Dual-Mode Operation of an Energy-Stored Quasi-Z-Source Photovoltaic Power System

The energy-stored quasi-Z-source inverter (ES-qZSI) has attracted much attention for photovoltaic (PV) power generations, due to its capability to stabilize the PV power fluctuations with simple structure and other advantages of Z-source inverter. The improved dual-mode (DM) ES-qZSI is able to support all-weather operation even at night or cloudy days when PV power is extremely low. However, the traditional proportional–integral (PI) based control suffers from complicated controller design and poor dynamic response during mode transition, due to two sets of PI control required for the daytime and night operation modes. In order to overcome that, here in this article, we propose a model predictive control strategy for the DM-ES-qZSI PV power system. The system predictive models in both day and night operating modes are derived. The control strategy is disclosed to ensure high performance of the system, through calling the predictive models and defined cost functions of the two modes within a single control loop. Simulation and experiment are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hierarchical Control of Utility-Scale Solar PV Plants for Mitigation of Generation Variability and Ancillary Service Provision

This paper presents a hierarchical control system to mitigate the variability of solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant and provide ancillary services to the electric grid without the need for additional non-solar resources. With coordinated management of each inverter in the system, the control system commands the power plant to proactively curtail a small fraction of its instantaneous maximum power potential, which gives the plant enough headroom to ramp up production from the overall power plant, for a service such as regulation reserve. This control system is practical for continuously changing cloud cover conditions in partially cloudy days. A case study from a site in Hawaii with one-second resolution solar irradiance data is used to verify the efficacy of the proposed control system. The proposed control algorithm is subsequently compared with the alternative control technology from the literature, the grouping control algorithm; the results show that the proposed hierarchical control system is over 10 times more effective in reducing generator mileage to support power fluctuations from solar PV power plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

PV DMFA [SWR-21-105]

The Photovoltaic Dynamic Material Flow Assessment (PV DMFA) model (also referred to here as “The model”) is a computational framework written in Python based on utility-scale PV electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of PV materials primarily in crystalline silicon PV technologies. The model evaluates cradle-to-cradle life cycle of utility-scale solar PV systems in the United States in the period 2000-2100. PV DMFA serves as a sustainability analysis tool to assess the impacts of different material circularity practices (i.e., reduce, reuse/refurbish, remanufacture, and recycle), PV module design shifts and sensitivity of material processing and technology related parameters to material installations, waste creation and raw material depletion in PV material supply chains. This tool enables advanced planning for future material needs and informs sustainable pathways for PV material management in the circular economy. This tool could be helpful to a wide range of stakeholders; Particularly, researchers and manufacturers looking for technoeconomic and/or environmental life cycle analysis (LCA) feedback for renewable energy (RE) systems.

Khalifa, SherifA.↗

Island Power Systems With High Levels of Inverter-Based Resources: Stability and Reliability Challenges

As many island power systems seek to integrate high levels of renewable energy, they face new challenges on top of the existing difficulties of operating an isolated grid. With their drastically declining cost, variable renewables, such as wind and photovoltaics (PVs), are increasingly being integrated into island grids to reduce the use of imported fuels. These deployments of renewable energy are dominated by PV and wind generators, which bring unique challenges of their own. While the integration issues span numerous timescales (from microseconds to many months), this article focuses on reliability and stability challenges on short timescales (microseconds to seconds). In other words, we seek to answer (to the extent that it is currently known) how to ensure the frequency and voltage stability in an island power system with very high instantaneous levels of wind and PVs. And because island power systems are often among the first to reach these very high instantaneous levels of wind and PV generation, we note that they are forging a path for larger interconnected power systems to follow.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Automatic Loss Factor Modeling and Attribution on Unlabeled PV Energy Data

We present a novel approach for modeling the loss factors of photovoltaic power generation systems (PV systems). This method is a white-box machine learning model built on convex optimization that is fast, interpretable, and auditable. It takes as an input the measured daily energy produced by the system, over a multi-year period, and returns a multiplicative decomposition model of the daily energy signal and full attribution of the total energy loss to each feature. The methods section of this paper has two major components: (1) the description of the signal decomposition (SD) model, expressed in the SD framework, and (2) the attribution of total energy losses via Shapley values. We validate the method on synthetic and open-source data sets and compare to similar methods from the literature.

artificial intelligence↗

Grid-Forming PV Inverter: Technology Development and Microgrid Applications

Presently, excluding residential backup power applications, grid-forming (GFM) inverters are commercially available for battery energy storage system (BESS) and some PV plus battery systems but not yet for stand-alone PV. This tech update investigates the control design for GFM PV inverter, especially the control required to provide active power reserve and to stabilize the dc link voltage. Subsequently, the use cases of GFM PV plants in utility-level microgrids are discussed considering fully inverter-based microgrids (i.e., with PV and BESS) as well as mixed-source microgrids (i.e., with PV and diesel generator). Scenarios where active power up-reserve from GFM PV plants is beneficial are illustrated. Moreover, requirements and specifications for GFM PV plant, especially for its active power reserve function are developed. In addition, stability of an example utility-level microgrid with two GFM PV plants and a diesel generator is analyzed to shed light on the potential unstable interaction between multiple GFM resources and the countermeasures. This research aims to advance GFM PV technology to offer more flexibility in microgrid design. With GFM PV available, depending on the level of reliability required, cost-benefit analysis, etc., the GFM BESS or diesel generator may be sized smaller while leveraging the full potential of PV generation inside the microgrid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Adaptive Volt-VAR to Mitigate PV Impacts [Slides]

Distributed generation (DG) sources like photovoltaic (PV) systems with advanced inverters are able to perform grid-support functions, like autonomous Volt-VAR that attempts to mitigate voltage issues by injecting or consuming reactive power. However, the Volt-VAR function operates with VAR priority, meaning real power may be curtailed to provide additional reactive power support. Since some locations on the grid may be more prone to higher voltages than others, PV systems installed at those locations may be forced to curtail more power, adversely impacting the value of that PV system. Adaptive Volt-VAR (AVV) could be implemented as an alternative, whereby the Volt-VAR reference voltage changes over time, but this functionality has not been well-explored in the literature. In this work, the potential benefits and grid impacts of AVV were investigated using yearlong quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations. After testing a variety of allowable AVV settings, we found that even with aggressive settings AVV resulted in <0.01% real power curtailment and significantly reduced the reactive power support required from the PV inverter compared to conventional Volt-VAR but did not provide much mitigation for extreme voltage conditions. The reactive power support provided by AVV was injected to oppose large deviations in voltage (in either direction), indicating that it could be useful for other applications like reducing voltage flicker or minimizing interactions with other voltage regulating devices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Bat activity at ecovoltaic solar energy developments in the Midwestern United States

As global photovoltaic (PV) solar electricity generation continues to increase, some PV sites are co-prioritizing electricity generation and ecosystem function (“ecovoltaics”) to align renewable energy development with biodiversity conservation. Thus far, positive responses of plant and insect communities to native habitats at ecovoltaic sites have been observed, but there has been little research on bat responses to ecovoltaic designs in the U.S. We conducted passive ultrasonic monitoring in 2023 and 2024 at 12 solar sites and paired reference sites (agricultural fields) to investigate bat activity responses to ecovoltaic facilities in the Midwestern U.S. We found that average weekly overall bat activity was approximately 50?% higher within ecovoltaic sites than reference sites in the first half of the monitoring season. We also found species-specific differences in bat responses to ecovoltaic sites, with Hoary Bats showing higher activity on ecovoltaic sites throughout most of the monitoring season, Big Brown Bats showing higher activity on ecovoltaic sites during the first one-third of the monitoring season, and Silver-haired Bats showing no difference in activity between ecovoltaic sites and reference sites. There were no weeks in which bat activity was statistically greater on reference sites, suggesting that bats in the Midwestern U.S. do not avoid ecovoltaic solar sites. Rather, our results suggest that ecovoltaic sites in this region may provide early season (May-June) habitat at a time of year when resources may be limited in the surrounding landscape. These findings support a growing body of evidence on the positive ecological outcomes of ecovoltaic designs. Further investigations of the types of bat calls being recorded at PV sites and relationships with insect prey abundance are needed to understand the underlying drivers of species-specific responses to PV developments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A unified large language model–based framework for heterogeneous PV image diagnosis

With advances in imaging technologies, modern photovoltaic (PV) systems generate large volumes of heterogeneous image data, including visible, electroluminescence (EL), and infrared (IR) images. Existing PV image analysis models, particularly deep learning approaches, are typically task-specific and lack cross-modality generalization. To address this limitation, this paper proposes an open-source large language model (LLM)–based unified framework for heterogeneous PV image diagnostics. Through task-aware diagnostic prompting, the framework enables analysis of visible, EL, and IR images within a single pipeline, supporting both zero-shot and few-shot inference and binary and multiclass classification. It is compatible with state-of-the-art multimodal LLMs, including ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Qwen, and CLIP. The framework is evaluated on PV module condition classification (clean, soiling, snow, hail, and bird droppings) using visible images, cell crack detection using EL images, and hotspot detection using IR images. GPT-5.1 in few-shot mode achieves the best performance, with classification accuracy exceeding 97.3%. Open-source models such as Qwen and CLIP also deliver competitive results on visible images (around 90% accuracy), though their performance is more limited on EL and IR modalities. On the full ELPV dataset, the framework achieves 83.5% zero-shot accuracy, within 2.8% of the supervised CNN baseline, confirming scalability to larger benchmarks. Practical aspects such as reproducibility, response latency, and confidence estimation are systematically analyzed. The framework operates across PV image modalities without modality- or task-specific training, making it well suited as a rapid pre-screening tool to support downstream detailed diagnostics. A benchmark dataset of diverse labeled PV images is also released.

Li, Baojie↗

Resilience and economics of microgrids with PV, battery storage, and networked diesel generators

Current designs and assessments of microgrids have ignored component reliability, leading to significant errors in predicting a microgrid’s performance while islanded. Existing life cycle cost studies on hybrid microgrids—which combine photovoltaics (PV), battery storage and networked emergency diesel generators—also have not identified all the potential economic opportunities. Reducing the number of emergency diesel generators through reliance on PV and battery, retail bill savings, and demand response and wholesale market revenue streams are all important. This paper provides a new statistical methodology that calculates the impact of distributed energy reliability and variability on a microgrid’s performance and a novel use of the optimization platform REopt to explore multiple cost savings and revenue streams. We examine the impacts for microgrids in California, Maryland, and New Mexico and show that a hybrid microgrid is a more resilient and cost-effective solution than a diesel-only system. Under realistic conditions, a hybrid microgrid can provide higher system reliability when islanded and have a lower life cycle cost under multiple market conditions than a traditional diesel generator-based system. The improved performance of the hybrid system is resilient to conditions experienced over the last 20 years in solar irradiance and sees little degradation in performance immediately after a hurricane. The cost savings to provide this more resilient backup power system as compared to a diesel-only microgrid are significant. The net present cost for a hybrid microgrid is 19% lower in New Mexico and 35% lower in Maryland than a diesel-only microgrid. In California, the net present cost of the hybrid microgrid is negative because, unlike a diesel-only microgrid, a hybrid microgrid has lower life cycle costs than the power costs without a microgrid.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Agrivoltaic Racking Design Optimization Based on Wind and Snow Loading Finite Element Analysis

The racking structure of photovoltaic (PV) systems plays a critical role in ensuring the PV panels generate power properly as it provides integral structural support and sometimes even solar tracking ability. Distinct applications of PV systems require variations of racking structure designs, which yield different mechanical performances under external loading conditions from the environment, such as heavy wind and snow. Past works, such as Reddy et al. [1], have analyzed the pressure effects of wind and snow loading on the racking structure of conventional rooftop and utility PV systems, but there is little knowledge of how various agrivoltaic racking systems perform, in terms of stress and strain, under the same loading conditions. There is also a knowledge gap in the industry on a set of optimized agrivoltaic racking design standards. This study investigates the mechanical performance of various existing racking systems and proposes novel designs that are optimized for agrivoltaics applications under wind and snow loading.

Liao, Quanhuan↗

Ecovoltaic solar energy development can promote grassland bird communities

Ecologically informed photovoltaic (PV) developments that co-prioritize PV electricity generation with ecosystem function (‘ecovoltaics’) have emerged as a promising land sharing strategy to minimize ecological conflicts associated with PV solar energy development. While habitat-focused ecovoltaic designs can conceptually benefit biodiversity by offsetting or enhancing impacts of PV development, foundational field research is needed to examine how wildlife respond to these novel ecosystems. We conducted passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) in 2023 and 2024 at 13 solar facilities and paired control sites to investigate avian community responses to ecovoltaic facilities in the Midwestern United States. Compared to control sites (row crop agricultural fields), we found that ecovoltaic sites supported more grassland bird species throughout a 17-week monitoring period between May and September. Grassland bird communities on ecovoltaic sites were also more stable than on agricultural controls, as measured by the Jaccard dissimilarity index. We also used PAM-based weekly species occurrences in an occupancy-modelling framework to investigate the influence of PV development and other landscape variables on grassland bird occupancy. 10 out of 13 modelled grassland bird species had greater predicted occupancy probabilities (ψ) on PV sites than control sites. Synthesis and applications. Our findings suggest that properly sited and developed ecovoltaic solar facilities in human altered landscapes can improve habitat for birds and other wildlife, but further research is needed to understand which species may benefit most from these novel ecosystems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Potential for Electrons to Molecules Using Solar Energy

Solar photovoltaics (PV) do and will continue to play an important role in the electric power sector and can potentially support other sectors that are in need of decarbonized energy sources. Chemicals such as hydrogen, ammonia, and hydrocarbons including ethylene are currently produced from natural gas and crude oil. Thus, processes to produce them emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases both directly and in upstream feedstock recovery processes. Electrons-to-molecules (E2M) technologies are being developed to convert carbon dioxide, water, and atmospheric nitrogen to desired chemical products and they are large electricity loads. Thus, they are emerging as a potential applications for PV. In its essence, they can act as electrochemical energy storage, thereby providing a means to further utilize the energy generated from PV and store it in molecular form. E2M systems offer an array of potential products and system designs that can be tailored to different end-uses and applications. It involves electrochemical conversion which uses electricity to break molecular bonds and produce new molecules. Various electrochemical conversion technologies split water into hydrogen and oxygen, reduce carbon dioxide into other hydrocarbon molecules, and several other possible combinations. While this Chapter does not attempt to provide an exhaustive summary or analysis of the potential products from E2M systems, it does provide an initial overview of the potential opportunities and challenges for PV and E2M systems in this space. This Chapter considers the potential for E2M to produce key chemicals and fuels that currently rely on hydrocarbons for production, either as a reactant or a source of high-grade heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Test and Evaluation of Solar Foil Directly Mounted on the Ground (Final Report)

HyET Solar (HyET), established in 2012, is a small business developing a thin-film silicon solar photovoltaic (PV) product called "Power Foil" that can be mounted directly on the constructed earthen dykes. HyET's goals are for low-cost, efficient, generation of PV electricity at utility scale. HyET has requested assistance from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the performance of the Power Foil product in several outdoor environments, with a particular focus on 1) heat effects on efficiency and 2) heat and UV effects on reliability and durability. NREL has been working on PV module testing at laboratory scale for more than 40 years, and has the equipment and facilities required to provide the PV material testing required.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗