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At least 127 records · Page 7

Modeling Demographic-Driven Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Biogeochemical Cycling in NASA GISS’s Earth System Model (ModelE-BiomeE v.1.0)

We developed a demographic vegetation model, BiomeE, to improve the modeling of vegetation dynamics and ecosystem biogeochemical cycles in the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies' ModelE Earth system model. This model includes the processes of plant growth, mortality, reproduction, vegetation structural dynamics, and soil carbon and nitrogen storage and transformations. The model combines the plant physiological processes of ModelE's original vegetation model, Ent, with the plant demographic and ecosystem nitrogen processes that have been represented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's LM3-PPA. We used nine plant functional types to represent global natural vegetation functional diversity, including trees, shrubs, and grasses, and a new phenology model to simulate vegetation seasonal changes with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Competition for light and soil resources is individual based, which makes the modeling of transient compositional dynamics and vegetation succession possible. Overall, the BiomeE model simulates, with fidelity comparable to other models, the dynamics of vegetation and soil biogeochemistry, including leaf area index, vegetation structure (e.g., height, tree density, size distribution, and crown organization), and ecosystem carbon and nitrogen storage and fluxes. This model allows ModelE to simulate transient and long-term biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks between the climate system and land ecosystems. Furthermore, BiomeE also allows for the eco-evolutionary modeling of community assemblage in response to past and future climate changes with its individual-based competition and demographic processes.

Biogeochemical cycles↗

Development of an Efficient Alternative to Recovery O2 From Metabolic CO2 Via Electrolysis Operated at Ambient Temperature and Driven By A Highly Selective Catalysis

The current State of Art (SOA) on oxygen recovery onboard the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) at the International Space Station (ISS) is complex, heavy, and power consuming system that recovers approximately 50% of the oxygen (O 2 ) from metabolic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). For future long duration beyond low earth orbit missions (LEO), O 2 recovery systems will need to be highly reliable, efficient, and recover a minimum of 75% O 2 from metabolic CO 2 . An alternative technology development effort currently underway at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has the potential to significantly increase O 2 recovery currently limited to 50% (Sabatier) and reduce the complexity of ECLSS O 2 recovery. MSFC and University of Texas in Arlington (UTA) have jointly designed and fabricated a microfluid electrochemical reactor (MFECR) that operates at ambient conditions and utilizes a proprietary catalysis highly selective on reducing CO 2 to ethylene (C 2 H 4 ) at the cathode while O 2 is generated at the anode. The MFECR would replace three pieces of hardware for future ECLSS architectures: the current CO 2 Reduction Assembly (CRA) (Sabatier reactor), the Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA), and the Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA). It is designed to interface directly with the CO 2 Removal Assembly (CDRA) and the Water Processing Assembly (WPA) to supply CO 2 reactant and water replenish respectively. This is expected to substantially improve sustainability of the ISS ECLSS and reduce requirement on power and weight. Here, we discuss the current development and evaluation efforts on different alternatives on not only the configuration and setup of the MFECR at an Engineering Design Unit (EDU) scale but also the selection of component materials.

Jesus A Dominguez↗

Lunar Surface Position Determination using Perceived Signal Strength

The purpose of this project is to evaluate the feasibility of transmitters and receivers on the lunar surface for Position Determination (PD) without any form of lunar Global Positioning System (GPS). The early Artemis program may lack GPS satellites orbiting the Moon, and it is critical that activities with the lander, rover, and crew EVA identify their position on the lunar surface at all times. This project creates a prototype system that trilaterates user position based upon the perceived signal from at least 3 nearby transmission towers, called “Lunar Access Points”. The application of perceived signal strength for surface PD has historically been used in terrestrial systems such as Long Range Navigation (LORAN), which was popular with the maritime industry prior to the Global Positioning System (GPS). The ease of installing such a local system for early Artemis missions provides a critical resource until satellite-based position determination systems are deployed. A surface-based PD can also be used in GPS-denied environments such as deep craters or lava tubes where satellite visibility is compromised. By demonstrating the basic capability of surface PD, this student team has learned about issues with power, distance, thermal, dust, radiation, data processing, and communication problems applicable to the lunar surface. This knowledge can feed into future NASA requirements to improve the capability of a LunaNET implementation for the Artemis program. This project follows 10 years of successful collaboration between NASA JSC/ARES, Texas Space, Technology, Applications and Research (T STAR) and Texas A&M University in a Public, Private, Academic (PPA) Partnership. NASA funds T STAR to mentor undergraduate Capstone teams in the College of Engineering Department to design, built, and test prototypes meeting NASA requirements. TAMU faculty lead the student teams in their academic class, and NASA Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) provide T STAR and students insight on requirements evolution, prior design projects, and future development goals.

Position Determination↗

Using Mesh Networking for A Dynamic Lunar Internet of Things (Liot)

The purpose of this project is to evaluate the feasibility of an IEEE 802.11 mesh protocol for lunar surface computing. This standard for wireless networking boosts speed, dependability and range of wireless transmissions. The concept is to integrate sensors (such as deployed science instruments) or Astronaut tools (such as a handheld spectrometer) that communicate with a node on a common cell. The nodes can extend the range of the cell and can dynamically reconfigure the data routing in case of another node failure. All of the data in a cell pass through a modem that communicates with a distant base station across a 4G link. The application of mesh networking to a potential lunar surface network increases robustness and fault tolerance over a traditional single-point modem system. By demonstrating the basic capability of a mesh network, the student team has learned about issues with power, distance, thermal, dust, radiation, data processing, and communication problems applicable to the lunar surface. This knowledge can feed into future NASA requirements to improve the capability of a LunaNET implementation for the Artemis program. This project follows 10 years of successful collaboration between NASA ARES, Texas Space, Technology, Applications and Research (T STAR) and Texas A&M University in a Public, Private, Academic (PPA) Partnership. NASA funds T STAR to mentor undergraduate Capstone teams in the College of Engineering Department to design, built, and test prototypes meeting NASA requirements. TAMU faculty lead the student teams in their academic class, and NASA Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) provide T STAR and students insight on requirements evolution, prior design projects, and future development goals.

Lunar Mesh Networking↗

Method for producing PBI films without organic solvents

A novel process for making PBI films starting from gel PBI membranes polymerized and casted in the PPA process wherein acid-imbibed gel PBIs are neutralized in a series of water baths and undergo controlled drying in association with a substrate material, yielding a PBI film without the use of organic solvents.

Murdock, Laura A.↗

Distributions of the Mean for Lognormally Distributed Data - 19427

In environmental sciences, a distribution of the mean is often needed for right-skewed data. For example, risk assessments are often based on distributions of the mean to obtain upper confidence limits (UCLs) for analyte concentrations, and, in probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) models, parameters are given distributions rather than deterministic values, and they are usually given distributions of their mean rather than the population distributions to account for the large spatial and temporal domains to which they are applied. How this distribution of the mean is developed depends on the characteristics of the parameter's full distribution and how the parameter relates to its use. In this presentation, I will discuss the implications of a right skew in distribution development. Parameters may vary over orders of magnitude and/or may be right-skewed. The material property of saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, is a prime example of such a parameter. Right-skewed parameters are often assumed to follow lognormal distributions. If X follows a lognormal distribution, then log(X) follows a normal distribution. For some right-skewed parameters, practitioners go back and forth between the two forms of the data depending on their needs. For example, it may be preferred to use the untransformed version of X in a model or equation, but it is easier to visualize the parameter values on a logarithmic scale. However, distribution development for the average value of the parameter will differ depending on whether X or log(X) is modeled. This difference is due to Jensen's Inequality, a theorem which states that the expected value of a concave function of a variable is less than or equal to the same function of the expected value of the variable; a logarithm is a concave function. In other words, the mean of log(X) is always less than or equal to the log of the mean of X and therefore the mean estimated from a distribution based on log(X) is less than or equal to the mean estimated from a distribution based on X. If a parameter is naturally considered on a log scale by subject matter experts, then distributions developed for the mean of log(X) may be more consistent with the use of the parameters in the literature than distributions developed for X. The statistical decisions of distribution development will be discussed within the context of right-skewed, lognormal data. These issues include method-of-moments versus maximum likelihood estimation of the distribution parameters and the use of bootstrapping to aid in the visualization of a distribution of the mean. The details surrounding Jensen's Inequality will be explained and visualized within the context of distribution development of a right-skewed parameter such as saturated hydraulic conductivity. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distribution Development for Residual Inventory at the New York West Valley Site - 20400

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351 ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Operations led to contamination in a number of facilities and locations. Some of that contamination has migrated from waste disposal zones to other layers, formations, and features on and off the WNYNSC. Phase I decommissioning activities are ongoing and involve the removal of a number of areas and structures that have been associated with contamination. The purpose of this work is to outline the approach for characterizing contamination not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. In this work, the term, residual radiological activity, is used to describe environmental contamination that exists subsequent to the completion of Phase I decommissioning activities, that is not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. Contamination from the Site was quantified relative to data that characterize the concentrations of radionuclides that exist in background. Background concentrations are those present in the area but having no influence from Site related activities. The existence of residual radiological activity that is elevated relative to background has the potential to contribute to future risks to human health and the environment. As a consequence, the residual inventory information is used to inform the West Valley Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model to characterize potential future risks to human health and the environment. The centralized West Valley Data Management System (DMS) was the source of information for the data assembled in this analysis. The DMS is a fairly large compilation consisting of thousands of records from investigation studies, with sample dates ranging from 1990 to present. Samples from monitoring wells, boreholes, geoprobe studies, surface water, surface soils, storm water outfalls, ventilation stack filters, plant and animal tissues, and more are included in the DMS. Results are typically reported in units of activity per unit volume. For the purpose of the analyses presented here, all results were converted into consistent units of pCi per unit volume. Since 1990, data have been collected from various locations across the WNYNSC at different times with varying frequency over the course of several decades. As a consequence, a number of potential issues can arise with respect to the assembly of a dataset that is deemed adequate for the characterization of residual radiological activity. These issues were assessed and resolved to the extent possible through careful consideration of the properties of the distributions. The intent was to use data which characterize the current state of the Site. Radionuclides can be designated to one of several groups depending on their origin. In this work the groups considered were 1) Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM), 2) fallout, and 3) Other (including power plant, medical research, etc). This grouping is a useful construct with respect to the interpretation of fixed laboratory results. For example, NORM radionuclides that exist within a decay chain should have approximately equivalent distributions of concentrations if they are representative of background conditions. Insights such as these can be used as a check to identify sample results that need to be further investigated or omitted due to issues associated with reported results from fixed laboratory analyses. This type of analysis provided a foundation for the assessment of the adequacy of sample results for use in subsequent components of an assessment. The general process for the assessment of residual radiological contamination at the Site consists of a sequence of several steps. First, for each analyte, several statistical tests were performed to assess the weight of evidence against the null hypothesis that the mean of the distribution of concentrations was equal to zero. If the mean of the distribution of concentrations for a given radionuclide was not found to be greater than zero, then it was removed from consideration as a component of the residual radiological contamination. If there was significant evidence to reject the hypothesis of the mean being equal to zero, the second step was to compare the distribution of the data from the Site to that of the corresponding background. A suite of tests was used to compare the distributions of the site and background data. The results of these tests were collectively used to determine if site data are elevated relative to background. The third step was to develop distributions using a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of mean of the increment present above background for each of the radionuclides. The Bayesian model implemented allowed for the comparison of site-specific records to background concentrations to better approximate contamination attributed to the Site. A final screening step was employed for radionuclides that exceed background. This screening step compared 95% upper confidence limits (UCLs) from the increment distribution developed in the previous step to the risk screening levels. This approach yields a list of analytes that were determined to be elevated relative to background.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Incorporating the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology in a Performance Assessment Model - 20403

The evidence of climate change is increasingly well-documented and impacts should be incorporated in performance assessment studies. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. Probabilistic modeling is a core requirement for quantifying uncertainty and evaluating its impacts. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment because of the existence of uncertainty is contradictory to good modeling practices - the most uncertain issues and parameters require the most attention in effective probabilistic modeling. Excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. In this work we develop methods to use the output from hydrologic models and analysis of historical aerial imagery to quantify and implement the impacts of climate change on hydrologic processes at a nuclear waste site in West Valley, New York. Specifically, we used the HELP (Hydraulic Performance of Landfill Performance) model to characterize key hydrologic processes under both current and future climate conditions to assess the impacts of changing climate on hydrology. A suite of previous climatic models were reviewed and synthesized to produce a cohesive representation of the current state of knowledge of the impact of climate change on important model inputs such as precipitation. Output from the HELP simulations was coupled to the GoldSim model that was used to develop the Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) approach through the application of a novel 'nearest neighbor' technique. First, several thousand realizations were generated from the HELP model using a Latin Hypercube experimental design to ensure adequate coverage of the parameter space of explanatory variables used to drive HELP. For example, porosity is a physical parameter that is used as an input to both HELP and the GoldSim PA model. We then ran sensitivity analysis (SA) algorithms on the output of HELP for each of the responses of interest. For each predictor, each time we build an SA model we get a different value for the sensitivity index (SI). From the collection of all the SA models, the average was computed among all of the SIs to represent the predictor within the context of the nearest neighbor approach. That is, we conduct SA on each HELP outcome for each scenario. This gives us parameter sensitivity indices for the outcomes. We average the parameter sensitivity indices across the outcomes to get the average SI for a scenario. For each realization that is generated from the Goldsim PA model, Goldsim generates random values for physical/empirical parameters that HELP uses as well. For each vector of physical/empirical parameters that Goldsim generates, the vector from the 5,000 HELP runs that is most 'similar' to the Goldsim vector is computed using the nearest neighbor approach. In this context 'similar' means minimization of the SA-weighted sum of the absolute differences among the 5,000 values computed for this statistic, where each value corresponds to a different HELP realization. In order to account for the impacts of climate change, this process was repeated using the spatially downscaled future climate projections. For each of the key parameters of interest, it was assumed that a linear change depicted the relationship between the values for the present day and those for 2100. In this way, the climatically-driven changes in key parameters used to inform the GoldSim model are quantified and incorporated into the PA model output for the future. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

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PBI films formed without use of organic solvents

A novel process for making PBI films starting from gel PBI membranes polymerized and casted in the PPA process wherein acid-imbibed gel PBIs are neutralized in a series of water baths and undergo controlled drying in association with a substrate material, yielding a PBI film without the use of organic solvents.

Murdock, Laura A.↗

Model results and data for Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Development

Data included in this submission support the analysis conducted for the report "Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Development" which is linked bellow. These data include information about the power purchase agreements (PPAs) analyzed for the report, inputs and model results for the pro forma economic analysis, and outputs from the regression analysis conducted on PPAs comparing geothermal and other power generation technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Comparing Offshore Wind Energy Procurement and Project Revenue Sources Across U.S. States

The pace of offshore wind energy procurement in the United States has rapidly accelerated in recent years. U.S. states along the Atlantic Coast have set procurement goals for offshore wind energy to meet renewable portfolio standards and serve state policy needs. By the end of 2019, projects with a total capacity of 6.4 gigawatts (GW) had established long-term contracts (or equivalent regulatory requirements) with utility off-takers. The prices established in these contracts since 2017 have been well below expectations from many industry observers, prompting stakeholders to compare price levels across U.S. states and globally. However, comparing procurement prices across projects and jurisdictions is often challenging because of differences in project parameters, support regimes, supply chains, and the applicable tax and regulatory environment. These characteristics provide critical context for understanding project revenue streams, delivery obligations, and risk allocation, which need to be accounted for when comparing across different projects. In combination, variation in these characteristics between projects results in measurable differences in project costs and revenues and, consequently, in different offer bids. In this report, we systematically analyze offshore wind energy support regimes across U.S. states. Because offshore wind energy procurement prices from U.S. projects are often compared not only among states but also with European tenders, this report also provides an overview of support regimes and taxonomy used in European offshore wind markets. The content of this report was derived from a literature review, primarily regulatory filings and summary reports, and 16 interviews with leading industry experts from state agencies, energy sector consultancies, and law practices. The comparison between U.S. states focuses on several dimensions, including statutory authority, solicitation procedures, procurement goals and awards, and the structuring of physical and transactional delivery of energy services.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

West Valley Demonstration Project Annual Site Environmental Report (CY2019)

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2019. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2019 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2020

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2020. The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2020. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2020 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

Resource Conservation and Recovery Act↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER) for Calendar Year 2021

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2021. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2021 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) (Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER), Calendar Year 2022)

The report, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy West Valley Demonstration Project office (DOE-WVDP), summarizes the environmental protection program at the WVDP for calendar year (CY) 2022. Monitoring and surveillance of the facilities used by the DOE are conducted to verify protection of public health and safety and the environment. The report is a key component of DOE’s effort to keep the public informed of environmental conditions at the WVDP. The quality assurance protocols applied to the environmental monitoring program ensure the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data. In addition to demonstrating compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and directives, evaluation of data collected in 2022 continued to indicate that WVDP activities pose no threat to public health or safety, or to the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

SPECs Early-Stage Decision Model: User Manual

The SPECs Early-Stage Decision (ESD) model is central to the SPECs procurement solutions toolkit. The ESD model is an Excel-based spreadsheet model, which provides information about the economic and strategic value of a proposed battery-storage project or solar-plus-storage (solar-plus) project. The model can be used to explore combinations of storage-related project value streams in order to define a potential project, while educating co-op decision-makers about project benefits and costs. A sensitivity analysis function speeds the development of "what-if" scenarios. A gap analysis function solves for top-priority metrics and supports the inclusion of hard-to-monetize strategic values, such as the value of storage to defer costly system upgrades in light of increasing distributed solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs). Model outputs include the utility data, assumptions, and use-case scenarios that are recommended content for the requests for proposals (RFPs). The model may also provide an initial "sanity check" for RFP responses, supporting further discussions among utility staff, vendors and stakeholders. The ESD is not a "finance-grade" modeling tool, and users are cautioned to be mindful of its limitations, but the model has been reviewed by users, who recommend it as a way to drive faster and better project design and planning, as well as to facilitate better communications with vendors, grid partners, and stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗