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At least 127 records · Page 7

Grid Strength Analysis for Integrating 30 GW of Offshore Wind Generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection: Preprint

Offshore wind is a key player in the transition to a decarbonized electric gird, and the United States has set ambitious goals of integrating 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. To facilitate this integration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are conducting the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study to assess transmission solutions. To achieve the 110-GW target by 2050, meticulous planning for network expansion and resource allocation is essential; however, meeting the 2030 goals requires integrating offshore wind power with minimal system upgrades, thus necessitating a careful study of grid strength and stability. The study team developed the Grid Strength Analysis Tool (GSAT) to assess system strength under various operating conditions and contingencies, focusing on the proposed integration of 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030. In this paper, we provide a summary of key features of the GSAT software and results of the grid strength analysis for integrating 30 GW of offshore wind generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection.

Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (AS↗

Capacity Density Considerations for Floating Offshore Wind Farms in Ultradeep Waters

Capacity density describes the concentration of wind energy development in an area and is often specified in terms of megawatts-per-square-kilometer (MW/km2). Understanding capacity density trends in wind energy projects helps to inform both energy system and spatial planning efforts. Borrman et al. (2018) and Mulas Hernando et al. (2023) analyze capacity density trends for fixed-bottom offshore wind farms in Europe and the United States, respectively, and Cooperman et al. (2022) explores how floating offshore wind mooring technology choices may impact wind plant layout through setbacks from lease area boundaries in waters up to 1,300 m deep. Technical challenges facing floating offshore wind development in ultradeep waters (beyond 1,300 m) could impact achievable capacity densities, with potential implications to marine spatial planning and project economics. When compared to fixed-bottom commercial-scale wind farms, mooring system footprints from floating offshore wind systems can constrain capacity density in some circumstances. In this study, we conduct an initial investigation of how taut mooring configurations may constrain floating offshore wind turbine placement and estimate capacity density for representative floating wind plants in generic lease areas. In addition, we explore floating wind plant capacity density drivers in ultradeep waters by characterizing area utilization for a range of lease area characteristics. This analysis highlights the primary challenges that floating offshore wind systems may encounter in achieving capacity densities comparable to commercial-scale fixed-bottom projects at ultradeep water depths, from a technical standpoint.

capacity density↗

Holistic Marine Energy Resource Assessments: A Wave and Offshore Wind Perspective of Metocean Conditions

Offshore wind and wave energy resources are possibly the last significantly untapped renewable energy resource, and could play a significant role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change via the generation of renewable electricity. However, offshore wind and wave energy resource assessments have been conducted as independent parallel processes, with little interaction with regard to best practices, lessons learnt, or opportunities to create compatible methodologies for future utilization by the broader marine energy sector. Based on the latest technical specifications from the International Electrotechnical Commission, and the highest fidelity publicly available datasets, the offshore wind and wave conditions at the PacWave site off Oregon, USA were quantified. The results clearly show a significant untapped energy resource an annual average wave energy flux of ~35kW/m and a mean average wind speed of 7.8m/s. The offshore wind and wave energy resources both show significant seasonal variation, with offshore wind also featuring a consistent daily profile during summer. Finally, opportunities and challenges associated with developing a holistic assessment of offshore marine energy resources were discussed and recommendations provided.

Robertson, Bryson↗

Analysis of Wind Speed Shear and Turbulence LiDAR Measurements to Support Offshore Wind in the Northeast United States

In this paper, we present wind speed measurements collected at 40m to 200m above sea-level to support the New England Aqua Ventus I 12 MW Floating Offshore Wind Farm to be located 17km offshore the Northeast United States. The high-altitude wind speed data are unique and represent some of the first measurements made offshore in this part of the country which is actively being developed for offshore wind. Multiple LiDAR measurements were made using a DeepCLiDAR floating buoy and LiDARs located on land on a nearby island. The LiDARs compared favorably thereby confirming the LiDAR buoy measurements. Wind speed shear profiles are presented. The measurements are compared against industry standard mesoscale model outputs and offshore design codes including the American Bureau of Shipping, American Petroleum Institute, and DNV-GL guides. Significant variation in the vertical wind speed profile occurs throughout the year. This variation is not currently addressed in offshore wind design standards which typically recommend the use of only a few values for wind shear in operational and extreme conditions. The mean wind shears recorded were also higher than industry recommended values. Additionally, turbulence measurements made from the LiDAR, although not widely accepted in the scientific community, are presented and compared against industry guidelines.

American Petroleum Institute↗

Wind Turbine/Radar Interference: Offshore Test Options

This paper attempts to describe the options to expand the scope of the current Interagency Field Test & Evaluation (IFT&E) objectives to include wind turbine encroachment on agency missions for offshore wind development in the United States. The options described here build on the recently completed IFT&E test campaigns that took place in 2012 and 2013. Those tests, which looked at the CARSR, ASR-11, ARSR-4, and eight proposed mitigation technologies, found that wind turbines can significantly impact the ability of radars to detect aircraft and meet mission requirements above and near wind farms. One of the more immediate successes of the IF&E Program is that today, several of the infill radar technologies which were tested, took the results of their IF&TE performance to move well beyond Technology Readiness Level 6/7 and some have been deployed and are operating at airports in the United Kingdom (UK). As well, the UK Ministry of Defense (MOD) has deployed the replacement radar which was tested to address specific concerns with especially concerning offshore wind farms. The UK MOD continues to test and hopes to refine these systems so that identified shortfalls in surveillance capability and operations which remain can be addressed. Wind energy has been steadily growing in the U.S. With a current capacity of over 60 GW today and the expectation that this capacity will need to grow to 300 GW to meet the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) goal of 20% wind energy in the future, offshore wind farms are gaining more attention. The specific impacts of wind turbine interference on maritime radars have not been determined at this time. However, the DOE did fund a study conducted by the University of Texas at Austin entitled, "Assessment of Offshore Wind Farm Effects on Sea Surface, Subsurface and Airborne Electronic Systems," that focused on identifying the broader Wind-Turbine/Radar Interference: Offshore Test Options SAND2014-17870 effects of electromagnetic interference expected to be caused by offshore wind farms.' A review of that study would be worth the reader's time. And while no comprehensive field studies have been accomplished, it is worth noting that many mitigation solutions that were tested I the IFT&E Program are derived from short-range maritime radar systems. The Wind and Water Power Technologies Office (WWPTO), within the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, supports the development, deployment, and commercialization of wind and water power technologies. This report is funded by the WWPTO.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Coupled Aerodynamic and Hydrodynamic Hybrid Simulation of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines

The development and innovation of floating offshore wind energy in the U.S. requires detailed high-fidelity observations and measurements of turbine and platform loading due to wind, waves, and currents. However, full-scale and quasi-full-scale experiments require significant financial and temporal investments for construction, experimental testing, and long-term field campaigns. To support the commercial advancement of the offshore wind energy industry, specialized wind tunnel and wave basin experimental facilities are critical to be able to test FOWT designs at small scale under controlled conditions prior to full-scale deployment. Oregon State University (OSU) is internationally known as a leader in water and energy research, development, and testing. The O.H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory (HWRL) and the Wallace Energy Systems and Renewables Facility (WESRF) at OSU have extensive experience building, modeling, monitoring, controlling, and actuating scaled systems. Experiments on wave-structure interaction have been performed at the HWRL since its establishment in 1972. Studies have included the interaction of waves with coastal structures (breakwaters, seawalls, buildings, cylinders, bridges, fixed foundations of offshore wind turbines, etc.) and with floating structures (e.g., wave energy converters, maneuvering of vessels, etc.). Hinsdale is actively used by marine energy technology developers, both for private testing and OSU-collaborative research projects. However, despite the availability of several large-scale facilities for hydrodynamic testing (at OSU and elsewhere in the U.S.), existing experimental laboratories are generally limited in their ability to accurately generate combined wind and wave conditions. The simulation of both wind and waves in experimental testing is complicated due to a number of constraints, including: [i] incompatible similitude laws governing the wind and waves for scaled experiments, [ii] producing accurate wind over a large enough control volume via fans, and [iii] generating wind that reasonably represents the atmospheric boundary layer in existing wave basins/flumes. Hence, physical test data providing insight into the simultaneous wave- and wind-structure response of floating offshore wind components can be difficult to generate. Given the aforementioned challenges in classic hydrodynamic experiments, the motivation of this project is to establish a real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) approach that can apply aero- and hydro-dynamic loading by augmenting wave-only experimental facilities with virtual aerodynamic forces through numerical models representing the remaining dynamic forces. RTHS is a physical-numerical approach that partitions a prototype system into physical and numerical sub-assemblies that interact with each other through actuators and sensors in real time. In coupling physical and numerical models, the hybrid simulation approach applied herein is ideal for problems with: (1) structures subjected to different scaling laws, such as floating offshore wind turbines subjected to combined aero/hydro-dynamic loading, (2) structures that are too large or complex to be tested entirely in a laboratory setting, such as deep-water mooring applications, and (3) component testing, where the behavior of a portion of the assembly is uncertain but still interacts with other portions of the structure, such as testing the fatigue life of turbine blades. Few U.S. experimental facilities are able to test simultaneous aero- and hydro-dynamic loading and none can accurately produce aero/hydro-dynamic response on scaled FOWT models due to conflicting similitude laws between the wind (commonly Reynolds) and the waves (commonly Froude). To aid in accelerating the development of the U.S. floating offshore industry, there is a significant need to develop a flexible, modular framework that can expand the capacities of existing wave-only laboratories. The project goal is to demonstrate a hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation (hydro-RTHS) framework that couples numerical wind and physical waves acting on a FOWT, thus representing simultaneous aero/hydro-dynamic loading. The FOWT is partitioned into a full-scale numerical sub-assembly associated with the aerodynamics and a model-scale physical sub-assembly associated with the hydrodynamics. The numerical-physical partition associated with hydro-RTHS mitigates scaling constraints by supplying different scaling laws to the physical and numerical sub-assemblies. Herein, length, force, and time are scaled and exchanged between the sub-assemblies using Froude scaling to represent the open-channel flow in the physical sub-assembly. Other similitude laws could also be utilized depending on the problem definition. It is envisioned that the ability to model FOWTs under waves and wind, with mitigation of similitude distortions, would result in reduced development costs (currently, FOWT concept development is performed with full-size pro- totypes at enormous expense and risk) and increase the reliability of the FOWT industry (since extreme wave and wind conditions and contingency events can be tested safely in a controlled environment).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NOW-23: the 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis. The NOW-23 data set is created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its output is available, as for its predecessor, at 5-minute time resolution and 2-kilometer horizontal spatial resolution. However, the NOW-23 data set improves upon the WIND Toolkit through: 1. A modeling period of at least 20 years (and as long as 23 years in selected regions), starting in 2000 (compared to the 7-year 2007–2013 modeling period in the WIND Toolkit). 2. For several offshore regions, a region-specific sensitivity analysis, driven by an ensemble of WRF simulations, to assess the most adequate region-specific WRF setup. 3. An updated WRF model, from Version 3.4 used in the WIND Toolkit to Version 4.2.1 used for the NOW-23 data set, which incorporates significant research advancements. 4. The use of the state-of-the-art reanalysis product ERA5 (which supersedes the older ERA-Interim used in the WIND Toolkit) to provide atmospheric forcing at the WRF domain boundaries. Figure 1 shows the NOW-23 mean wind speed at 160 m above sea level (asl), which we use as proxy for hub-height of a commercial offshore wind turbine in this report across all regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Noise Reduction Associated with Installation of Fixed-Bottom Foundations: Workshop Report

As offshore wind energy development grows in the United States, solutions are needed to reduce the underwater noise and substrate vibration generated during fixed-bottom turbine installation to help protect marine life. Monopiles are currently the main turbine foundation type installed globally and impact pile driving, the primary installation method, can be a major source of noise and vibration generation during wind farm construction. Opportunities exist to reduce the amount of noise and vibration produced during future offshore wind farm development. The use of alternative foundation types and installation methods, as well as innovative noise abatement technologies, would help reduce the potential detrimental effects on sensitive marine species. To explore these opportunities, the Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office, in collaboration with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, funded the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to organize, host, and facilitate a virtual workshop in December 2022. The goal of the workshop was to gather input from the offshore wind energy community on noise reduction strategies for the installation of fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines in U.S. waters across multiple regions, including the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Gulf of Mexico, and Great Lakes to inform recommendations on future research. The joint lab team convened industry representatives, subject matter experts, and regulators to discuss potential pathways to reduce noise and vibration associated with fixed-bottom turbine installation, including the practicality of using alternative foundations and installation methods, the effectiveness of noise abatement technologies, as well as research and monitoring needs. In preparation for the workshop, the team invited experts to be part of a steering committee and worked with its members to help focus activities to meet the workshop goals. Additional pre-workshop activities included developing the invitee list and workshop agenda, reviewing existing Construction and Operations Plans (COP) for proposed offshore wind projects, distributing a brief questionnaire to industry representatives, and drafting the workshop discussion questions and Mural boards. In total, 128 workshop participants provided over 600 comments in response to the 17 group discussion questions used over two workshop sessions. Overarching recommendations highlighted across themes included future investments to provide data sharing, consistency, transparency, and opportunities for sharing best available science, knowledge, and expertise. The joint lab team synthesized the comments and identified four key research and development themes that could help advance the successful implementation of noise and vibration reduction strategies (see report). This report provides an overview of the workshop goals and scope, reviews the pre-workshop activities, presents brief summaries of participant feedback, and concludes with detailed research themes and recommendations for future investments. Appendix A includes the group discussion questions, Appendix B includes the results of the COP review, and Appendix C includes the results of the industry questionnaire. Overall, there was a high level of interest and engagement in the workshop. The sessions provided an opportunity for significant exchange of information between workshop participants from across sectors. Participants identified a variety of opportunities for next steps towards the noise reduction of offshore wind turbine installation in U.S. waters, including recommendations for future investments to provide certainty in the use of new technologies associated with alternative foundation types, noise abatement systems, and efficacy monitoring.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

International Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Story Map

The International Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Story Map provides an overview of offshore geologic carbon storage (GCS) project maturity on a global scale. This story map reviews the history of CO2 storage in offshore sedimentary basins, basic geologic requirements, project timelines and lessons learned through defined project stage progression, areas previously studied for potential future domestic offshore GCS development, and regulatory considerations within different global regions. This resource is a distillation of information collected and recorded in the Offshore Geologic Carbon Storage Inventory Version 1.0 (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/offshore-gcs-data-inventory).

Assessment↗

NREL/University of Delaware Offshore Wind R&D Collaboration: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-10-393

Specifically, the work under this CRADA includes, but is not limited to, the development of test procedures for an offshore test site in Delaware waters; testing of installed offshore wind turbines; performance monitoring of those turbines; and a program of research and development on offshore wind turbine blades, components, coatings, foundations, installation and construction of bottom-fixed structures, environmental impacts, policies, and more generally on means to enhance the reliability, facilitate permitting, and reduce costs for offshore wind turbines. This work will be conducted both at NREL's National Wind Technology Center and participant facilities, as well as the established offshore wind test sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Offshore Wind Resource, Cost, and Economic Potential in the State of Maine

This report provides information for decision-makers about floating offshore wind technologies in the state of Maine. It summarizes research efforts performed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory between 2015 and 2017 to analyze the resource potential, cost of offshore wind, and economic potential of offshore wind from four primary reports: Musial et al. (2016); Beiter et al. (2016, 2017); and Mone et al. (unpublished). From Musial et al. (2016), Maine's technical offshore wind resource potential ranked seventh in the nation overall with more than 411 terawatt-hours/year of offshore resource generating potential. Although 90% of this wind resource is greater than 9.0-meters-per-second average velocity, most of the resource is over deep water, where floating wind technology is needed. Levelized cost of energy and levelized avoided cost of energy were computed to estimate the unsubsidized 'economic potential' for Maine in the year 2027 (Beiter et al. 2016, 2017). The studies found that Maine may have 65 gigawatts of economic potential by 2027, the highest of any U.S. state. Bottom-line costs for the Aqua Ventus project, which is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Technology Demonstration project, were released from a proprietary report written by NREL in 2016 for the University of Maine (Mone et al. unpublished). The report findings were that economies of scale and new technology advancements lowered the cost from $300/megawatt-hour (MWh) for the two-turbine 12-megawatt (MW) Aqua Ventus 1 project, to $126/MWh for the commercial-scale, 498-MW Aqua Ventus-2 project. Further cost reductions to $77/MWh were found when new technology advancements were applied for the 1,000-MW Aqua Ventus-3 project in 2030. No new analysis was conducted for this report.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparing Offshore Wind Energy Procurement and Project Revenue Sources Across U.S. States

The pace of offshore wind energy procurement in the United States has rapidly accelerated in recent years. U.S. states along the Atlantic Coast have set procurement goals for offshore wind energy to meet renewable portfolio standards and serve state policy needs. By the end of 2019, projects with a total capacity of 6.4 gigawatts (GW) had established long-term contracts (or equivalent regulatory requirements) with utility off-takers. The prices established in these contracts since 2017 have been well below expectations from many industry observers, prompting stakeholders to compare price levels across U.S. states and globally. However, comparing procurement prices across projects and jurisdictions is often challenging because of differences in project parameters, support regimes, supply chains, and the applicable tax and regulatory environment. These characteristics provide critical context for understanding project revenue streams, delivery obligations, and risk allocation, which need to be accounted for when comparing across different projects. In combination, variation in these characteristics between projects results in measurable differences in project costs and revenues and, consequently, in different offer bids. In this report, we systematically analyze offshore wind energy support regimes across U.S. states. Because offshore wind energy procurement prices from U.S. projects are often compared not only among states but also with European tenders, this report also provides an overview of support regimes and taxonomy used in European offshore wind markets. The content of this report was derived from a literature review, primarily regulatory filings and summary reports, and 16 interviews with leading industry experts from state agencies, energy sector consultancies, and law practices. The comparison between U.S. states focuses on several dimensions, including statutory authority, solicitation procedures, procurement goals and awards, and the structuring of physical and transactional delivery of energy services.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Costs and Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in the O'ahu Region

The State of Hawai'i has set a target to achieve a 100% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by 2045, and is well suited to become the first state to achieve this goal due to its relatively small load, high electricity prices, heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, and favorable conditions for wind and solar. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management contracted NREL to conduct a cost and feasibility study to provide information to decision makers on Hawai'i about the viability of floating offshore wind to be a part of the 100% RPS. We used NREL's Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer (ORCA) spatial cost model to evaluate the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) in the region surrounding O'ahu as this is the island with the highest energy demand. The ORCA results showed that LCOE could range from around $\$$83 MWh to $\$$194 MWh for commercial operation dates in 2019 but has the potential to decrease to $\$$48 MWh - $\$$109 MWh by 2032 due to maturing global supply chains, increasing turbine rating, and new technological innovations. These costs are expected to be competitive with global floating wind costs in the early 2030s. The strong wind resource, proximity to infrastructure on land, and benign metocean conditions can potentially compensate for the logistical complexities of installing projects in Hawai'i far from mainland supply chains if sufficient investments are made to develop ports, grid infrastructure, and workforce on O'ahu to support the construction and operation of offshore wind projects. In addition to the cost results, this report also discusses the likely technologies that would comprise floating wind projects near O'ahu, the existing infrastructure available to projects, unique conditions facing offshore wind in the region such as exposure to hurricanes and limits on allowable export cable capacity, newly developed wind resource data sets for the region, and local stakeholder perspectives on offshore wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Capacity Density Considerations for Offshore Wind Plants in the United States

The United States is a rapidly emerging market for offshore wind energy, with a project pipeline estimated at over 52 GW as of May 31, 2023 (Musial et al. 2023). The capacity density, measured in megawatts per square kilometer (MW/km 2 ), is a crucial parameter for estimating the magnitude of the development pipeline and the nameplate potential of existing lease areas. The offshore wind energy industry is comprised of diversity of participants, including developers, governmental bodies, investors, environmental advocacy groups, and researchers. These various stakeholders use capacity density in different ways as a key metric for evaluating the potential of individual offshore wind lease area or even a section of ocean space. This report presents our assessment of capacity density values in the current pipeline of emerging U.S. offshore wind farms and a detailed list of the main factors that influence capacity density. This understanding is critical for planning of future lease areas, for estimating the technical resource potential for offshore wind on the U.S. outer continental shelf (OCS), and for estimating ocean space requirements needed for meeting state and national goals for a carbon neutral energy transition.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Offshore Wind Guide

The WINDExchange Offshore Wind Energy Guide is a foundational resource that introduces the major concepts and topics within offshore wind energy: project anatomy and component characteristics; the project development process; siting of turbines and other infrastructure; state and local involvement in offshore wind energy development; community impacts; public engagement in decision making and planning; Tribal considerations; economic impacts; supply chain, ports, and vessels, and workforce. This guide is intended to provide information and resources that can build a foundation of knowledge and understanding about offshore wind energy and create a launching point for readers to seek out additional information about the topics and issues of interest to them.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

On the predominance of unstable atmospheric conditions in the marine boundary layer offshore of the U.S. northeastern coast

Abstract The marine boundary layer of the northeastern U.S. is studied with focus on wind speed, atmospheric stability, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), the three most relevant properties in the context of offshore wind power development. Two long‐term observational data sets are analyzed. The first one consists of multilevel meteorological variables measured up to 60 m during 2003–2011 at the offshore Cape Wind tower, located near the center of the Nantucket Sound. The second data set comes from the 2013–2014 IMPOWR campaign (Improving the Modeling and Prediction of Offshore Wind Resources), in which wind and wave data were collected with new instruments on the Cape Wind platform, in addition to meteorological data measured during 19 flight missions offshore of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. It is found that, in this region: (1) the offshore wind resource is remarkable, with monthly average wind speeds at 60 m exceeding 7 m s −1 all year round, highest winds in winter (10.1 m s −1 ) and lowest in summer (7.1 m s −1 ), and a distinct diurnal modulation, especially in summer; (2) the marine boundary layer is predominantly unstable (61% unstable vs. 21% neutral vs. 18% stable), meaning that mixing is strong, heat fluxes are positive, and the wind speed profile is often nonlogarithmic (~40% of the time); and (3) the shape of the wind speed profile (log versus nonlog) is an effective qualitative proxy for atmospheric stability, whereas TKE alone is not.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating offshore legacy wells for geologic carbon storage: A case study from the Galveston and Brazos areas in the Gulf of Mexico

In this article, federal offshore waters in the Gulf of Mexico are of interest for large-scale geologic carbon storage (GCS). However, more than 80,000 offshore oil and gas wells exist in the region, which could impact the integrity of sealing intervals. In this study, we propose a screening methodology for ranking offshore legacy wells based on the challenge they may present to GCS. The methodology relies on the review of well regulatory records to 1) identify leakage pathways and assess the potential hazards that wells pose to planned GCS operations, 2) evaluate well features that impact the accessibility of wells to determine the feasibility of potential corrective actions, and 3) rank wells based on the overall challenge they may pose for GCS. We demonstrate our framework by evaluating the construction and abandonment of 156 wells across eight areas of interest (AOIs) in shallow federal waters along the Texas Gulf Coast. The majority (99.3 %) of wells considered were constructed and plugged in a manner that did not isolate prospective GCS targets in the Upper and Lower Miocene formations and may potentially require a challenging or uncertain corrective action prior to GCS. Dataset trends suggest that the observed well construction and plugging designs may be common in shallow offshore federal waters along the Texas Gulf Coast. Consequently, operators pursuing offshore GCS projects in the region may consider selecting areas that avoid challenging wells or performing robust evaluations of legacy well leakage risks to plan corrective action prior to CO 2 injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets

Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗