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DOE OSTI2026

Direct Nonlinear Approximation for Security Region Boundary of Integrated Energy Systems: A Polynomial Chaos Expansion Solution

The strong interdependence of electricity, gas, and heating systems can facilitate fault propagation within integrated energy systems (IESs), posing significant challenges to secure operation. This paper proposes a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE)-based approximation method to accurately characterize the IES security region boundary (IES–SRB). By integrating the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions with PCE theory, the IES-SRB approximation problem is reformulated as a set of nonlinear equations concerning the approximation coefficients. Using the Galerkin projection method, these equations are further transformed into a system of projection equations that govern the polynomial approximation coefficients in the IES-SRB approximation. To reduce computational complexity while maintaining high approximation accuracy, a piecewise polynomial approximation method is proposed. Numerical studies on the E39-G20-H6 and E118-G96-H52 IES test systems demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately and effectively construct IES security regions.

Wu, Chenghao [Northeast Electric Power University]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recent Developments in Security-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow: Overview of Challenge 1 in the ARPA-E Grid Optimization Competition

In “Recent Developments in Security-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow: Overview of Challenge 1 in the ARPA-E Grid Optimization Competition,” we review the state of the art in practical algorithms for scheduling power-systems operations in the short term and the results of the recent competition organized by the U.S. Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy. We explain the mixed-integer nonlinear formulation used in the competition for nonspecialists in electrical engineering, the context and organization of the competition, and the performance of competitors. We find that the collective approaches and results of competitors provide support for efforts to move nonlinear optimization techniques into industrial applications, as they have proven to be a robust and efficient alternative to current linear approximation techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

GO Competition Challenge 1 Benchmark Approach and Validation Support

At the outset ARPA-e’s grid optimization competition sought to test a hypothesis that modern nonlinear optimization methods had reached a level of performance and reliability necessary to optimize energy grids using nonlinear power flow equations. The results demonstrated by this project and the other participants in the grid optimization competition have demonstrated beyond any shadow of doubt that this hypothesis is true. This result suggest that the mathematical optimization technology now exists to produce a revolution in power grid optimization software, which would improve the efficiency of energy grid operations to the broad benefit of society.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1980

Hyperstability in variable structure systems

A variable structure control law is a discontinuous feedback law whose coefficients switch on hypersurfaces defined in the state space. Feedback systems with variable structure control laws are often referred to as variable structure systems (VSS). The main feature of VSS is the sliding motion which can occur at the intersection of the switching surfaces. Demonstrating existence and reaching in the case of vector control in n-dimensional space is in general a problem in stability of nonlinear systems. The present investigation is concerned with the projection of motion on an m-dimensional subspace, taking into account aspects of the hyperstability concept in VSS design. The considered concepts are illustrated with the aid of an example.

Calise, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probalistic Finite Elements (PFEM) structural dynamics and fracture mechanics

The purpose of this work is to develop computationally efficient methodologies for assessing the effects of randomness in loads, material properties, and other aspects of a problem by a finite element analysis. The resulting group of methods is called probabilistic finite elements (PFEM). The overall objective of this work is to develop methodologies whereby the lifetime of a component can be predicted, accounting for the variability in the material and geometry of the component, the loads, and other aspects of the environment; and the range of response expected in a particular scenario can be presented to the analyst in addition to the response itself. Emphasis has been placed on methods which are not statistical in character; that is, they do not involve Monte Carlo simulations. The reason for this choice of direction is that Monte Carlo simulations of complex nonlinear response require a tremendous amount of computation. The focus of efforts so far has been on nonlinear structural dynamics. However, in the continuation of this project, emphasis will be shifted to probabilistic fracture mechanics so that the effect of randomness in crack geometry and material properties can be studied interactively with the effect of random load and environment.

Liu, Wing-Kam↗

NASA NTRS2000

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim↗

NASA NTRS2005

Linking Urban Air Pollution to Global Tropospheric Chemistry and Climate

The two major tasks of this project are to study: (a) the impact of urban nonlinear chemistry on chemical budgets of key pollutants in non-urban areas; and (b) the influence of air pollution control strategies in selected metropolitan areas, particularly of emerging economies in East and South Asia, on tropospheric chemistry and hence on regional and global climate.

Wang, Chien↗

NASA NTRS2017

Biologically-Inspired Control for a Planetary Exploration Tensegrity Robot

Tensegrity structures are becoming increasingly popular as mechanical structures for robots. Their inherent compliance makes them extremely robust to environmental disturbances, and their design allows them to have a high strength-to-weight ratio whilst being lightweight compared to traditional robots. For these reasons they would be of interest to the aerospace industry, particularly for planetary exploration. However, being such compliant structures thanks to their network of elastic elements also means that their control is not an easy task. Relying solely on traditional control strategies to generate efficient locomotion would surely be near impossible due to the complex oscillatory motions and nonlinear interactions of its members. The goal of this project was to use bio-inspired control techniques to generate locomotion for a tensegrity icosahedron, namely the SUPERball project of the Intelligent Robotics Group of NASA Ames Research Center.

Leroy, Marc↗

NASA NTRS1996

The Development of Computational Techniques for the Nonlinear Analysis of Composite Structures at High Temperature

The objective of this research project was to develop robust and efficient computational tools for deformation and life analysis techniques. This included: development of viscoplastic continuum models, associated numerical integration techniques, suitable micromechanics models/methods, and coupled deformation and damage algorithms. The work was involved with models/methods applicable to composite structures on both microscale and macroscale levels. The microscale analysis utilized Aboudi's generalized method of cells (GMS) micromechanical model as well as finite element models of similar composite architectures, i.e., square and hexagonal fiber pack models.

Keith, Theo G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Importance of Internal Climate Variability in Climate Impact Projections

Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty, intermodel uncertainty, and internal variability. Although socioeconomic climate impact studies increasingly take into account the first two components, little attention has been paid to the role of internal variability, although underestimating this uncertainty may lead to underestimating the socioeconomic costs of climate change. Using large ensembles from seven coupled general circulation models with a total of 414 model runs, we partition the climate uncertainty in classic dose–response models relating county-level corn yield, mortality, and per-capita gross domestic product to temperature in the continental United States. The partitioning of uncertainty depends on the time frame of projection, the impact model, and the geographic region. Internal variability represents more than 50% of the total climate uncertainty in certain projections, including mortality projections for the early 21st century, although its relative influence decreases over time. We recommend including uncertainty due to internal variability for many projections of temperature-driven impacts, including early-century and midcentury projections, projections in regions with high internal variability such as the Upper Midwest United States, and impacts driven by nonlinear relationships.

climate impacts↗

NASA NTRS1996

Conversion-Integration of MSFC Nonlinear Signal Diagnostic Analysis Algorithms for Realtime Execution of MSFC's MPP Prototype System

NASA's advanced propulsion system Small Scale Magnetic Disturbances/Advanced Technology Development (SSME/ATD) has been undergoing extensive flight certification and developmental testing, which involves large numbers of health monitoring measurements. To enhance engine safety and reliability, detailed analysis and evaluation of the measurement signals are mandatory to assess its dynamic characteristics and operational condition. Efficient and reliable signal detection techniques will reduce the risk of catastrophic system failures and expedite the evaluation of both flight and ground test data, and thereby reduce launch turn-around time. During the development of SSME, ASRI participated in the research and development of several advanced non- linear signal diagnostic methods for health monitoring and failure prediction in turbomachinery components. However, due to the intensive computational requirement associated with such advanced analysis tasks, current SSME dynamic data analysis and diagnostic evaluation is performed off-line following flight or ground test with a typical diagnostic turnaround time of one to two days. The objective of MSFC's MPP Prototype System is to eliminate such 'diagnostic lag time' by achieving signal processing and analysis in real-time. Such an on-line diagnostic system can provide sufficient lead time to initiate corrective action and also to enable efficient scheduling of inspection, maintenance and repair activities. The major objective of this project was to convert and implement a number of advanced nonlinear diagnostic DSP algorithms in a format consistent with that required for integration into the Vanderbilt Multigraph Architecture (MGA) Model Based Programming environment. This effort will allow the real-time execution of these algorithms using the MSFC MPP Prototype System. ASRI has completed the software conversion and integration of a sequence of nonlinear signal analysis techniques specified in the SOW for real-time execution on MSFC's MPP Prototype. This report documents and summarizes the results of the contract tasks; provides the complete computer source code; including all FORTRAN/C Utilities; and all other utilities/supporting software libraries that are required for operation.

Jong, Jen-Yi↗

NASA NTRS2002

Waves in Turbulent Stably Stratified Shear Flow

Two approaches for the identification of internal gravity waves in sheared and unsheared homogeneous stratified turbulence are investigated. First, the phase angle between the vertical velocity and density fluctuations is considered. It was found, however, that a continuous distribution of the phase angle is present in weakly and strongly stratified flow. Second, a projection onto the solution of the linearized inviscid equations of motion of unsheared stratified flow is investigated. It was found that a solution of the fully nonlinear viscous Navier-Stokes equations can be represented by the linearized inviscid solution. The projection yields a decomposition into vertical wave modes and horizontal vortical modes.

Jacobitz, F. G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Waves in Turbulent Stably-Stratified Shear Flow

Two approaches for the identification of internal gravity waves in sheared and unsheared homogeneous stratified turbulence are investigated. First, the phase angle between the vertical velocity and density fluctuations is considered. It is found, however, that a continuous distribution of the phase angle is present in weakly and strongly stratified flow. Second, a projection onto the solution of the linearized inviscid equations of motion of unsheared stratified flow is investigated. It is found that a solution of the fully nonlinear viscous Navier-Stokes equations can be represented by the linearized inviscid solution. The projection yields a decomposition into vertical wave modes and horizontal vortical modes.

Jacobitz, F. G.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi-Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change

Numerical, process-based simulations of tidewater glacier evolution are necessary to project future sea-level change under various climate scenarios. Previous work has shown that nonlinearities in tidewater glacier and ice stream dynamics can lead to biases in simulated ice mass change in the presence of noisy forcings. Ice sheet modeling projections that are used in the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) utilize atmospheric and oceanic forcings at annual temporal resolution, omitting any higher frequency forcings. Here, we quantify the effect of seasonal (<1 year) tidewater glacier terminus oscillations on decadal-scale (30 years) mass change. We use an idealized geometry to mimic realistic tidewater glacier geometries and investigate the impact of the magnitude of seasonal oscillations, bed slope at the glacier terminus, and basal friction law. We find that omitting seasonal terminus motion results in biased mass change projections, with up to an 39% underestimate or 25% overestimate of mass loss when seasonality is neglected, depending on bed slope and magnitude of oscillations. The bias is most sensitive to the magnitude of the seasonal terminus oscillations and exhibits very little sensitivity to choice of friction law. Although omitting seasonal terminus motion may bias mass change projections of individual glaciers, further work is needed to investigate the impact on ice sheet mass change projections. In order to achieve this, seasonality in atmospheric and oceanic forcings must be adequately represented and observations of seasonal terminus positions and tidewater glacier thickness changes must be acquired to evaluate numerical models. Note: Zip folder contains all videos listed in the supplemental document and can be downloaded for viewing.

D. Felikson↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rates of Sea‐Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks

Glacier flow plays a major role in current and future rates of globally averaged sea-level rise. The viscosity of glacial ice, controlling the rate of flow, decreases as stress increases and is highly sensitive to the value of the stress exponent, $n$, in the constitutive equation for viscous flow. Glaciologists and climate modelers almost exclusively assume $n=3$ when modeling ice flow and projecting sea-level rise through forward modeling. However, recent work suggests that $n\approx 4$ better fits observations, prompting the question: How sensitive are projections of sea-level rise to the value of $n$? We use an established community ice flow model and standard benchmark experiments designed as an idealized representation of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. While initializing an $n=3$ model to match observations of an $n=4$ ice sheet is possible, we find that incorrectly assuming $n=3$ when in fact $n=4$ dramatically underestimates rates of sea-level rise. The scale of this error grows nonlinearly with the magnitude of the climate forcing, acting to increase projection uncertainties. Additionally, we find that models often account for this stress-dependent rheology mismatch during model initialization in a way that masks this rheological effect in the short term while leaving model outputs vulnerable to larger biases in longer-term projections. Initializations to observations of Pine Island Glacier display similar rheology-mismatch fingerprints to our idealized example.

climate sensitivity↗

NASA NTRS1994

Multigrid techniques for nonlinear eigenvalue probems: Solutions of a nonlinear Schroedinger eigenvalue problem in 2D and 3D

This paper presents multigrid (MG) techniques for nonlinear eigenvalue problems (EP) and emphasizes an MG algorithm for a nonlinear Schrodinger EP. The algorithm overcomes the mentioned difficulties combining the following techniques: an MG projection coupled with backrotations for separation of solutions and treatment of difficulties related to clusters of close and equal eigenvalues; MG subspace continuation techniques for treatment of the nonlinearity; an MG simultaneous treatment of the eigenvectors at the same time with the nonlinearity and with the global constraints. The simultaneous MG techniques reduce the large number of self consistent iterations to only a few or one MG simultaneous iteration and keep the solutions in a right neighborhood where the algorithm converges fast.

Costiner, Sorin↗

NASA NTRS1991

Solution of geometrically nonlinear statics problems by the p-version of the finite element method

This project is concerned with the possibility of using computers for the simulation of structural systems with the same degree of reliability as full scale physical experiments. Reliable numerical simulation will make it possible to reduce the costs of engineering and improve the quality of engineering decisions based on computed information. An error of idealization is an error between the actual physical quantities on which engineering decisions are based (e.g., maximum principal stress, first natural frequency, etc.) and the same data corresponding to the exact solution of the mathematical model. An error of discretization is an error between the quantities of interest corresponding to the exact and approximate solutions of a mathematical model. A high degree of reliability can be achieved in numerical simulation only if both the errors of idealization and errors of discretization can be shown to be small.

Szabo, Barna A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Process Control and Dynamic Optimization of Reversible Solid Oxide Cell Systems for Performance and Long-Term Health

This presentation was delivered at the 2024 Hydrogen Annual Merit Review Meeting. It focuses on three aspects of projects focusing on solid oxide cell systems- advanced control including nonlinear model predictive control and traditional control, dynamic optimization with due consideration of chemical degradation over the cell lifetime, dynamic optimization considering physical degradation.

Allan, Douglas↗