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Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Waveform retrieval for ultrafast applications based on convolutional neural networks

Electric field waveforms of light carry rich information about dynamical events on a broad range of timescales. The insight that can be reached from their analysis, however, depends on the accuracy of retrieval from noisy data. In this article, we present a novel approach for waveform retrieval based on supervised deep learning. We demonstrate the performance of our model by comparison with conventional denoising approaches, including wavelet transform and Wiener filtering. The model leverages the enhanced precision obtained from the nonlinearity of deep learning. The results open a path toward an improved understanding of physical and chemical phenomena in field-resolved spectroscopy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Catastrophic Cooling Instability in Optically Thin Plasmas

The solar corona is the prototypical example of a low-density environment heated to high temperatures by external sources. The plasma cools radiatively, and because it is optically thin to this radiation, it becomes possible to model the density, velocity, and temperature structure of the system by modifying the MHD equations to include an energy source term that approximates the local heating and cooling rates. The solutions can be highly inhomogeneous and even multiphase because the well-known linear instability associated with this source term, thermal instability, leads to a catastrophic heating and cooling of the plasma in the nonlinear regime. Here we show that there is a separate, much simpler linear instability accompanying this source term that can rival thermal instability in dynamical importance. The stability criterion is the isochoric one identified by Parker (1953), and we demonstrate that cooling functions derived from collisional ionization equilibrium are highly prone to violating this criterion. If catastrophic cooling instability can act locally in global simulations, then it is an alternative mechanism for forming condensations, and due to its nonequilibrium character, it may be relevant to explaining a host of phenomena associated with the production of cooler gas in hot, low density plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Formation and Diagnostics of Collisionless Shocks in Laser-Produced Plasmas (Final Report)

Collisions of supersonic flows occur frequently in astrophysics, and the resulting shock waves are responsible for the properties of many astrophysical phenomena, such as supernova remnants, Gamma Ray Bursts and jets from Active Galactic Nuclei. Because of the low density of astrophysical plasmas, the mean free path due to Coulomb collisions is typically very large; therefore, most shock waves in astrophysics are “collisionless” and form due to plasma instabilities and self-generated magnetic fields. Laboratory experiments at DOE high energy density (HED) facilities can achieve the conditions necessary for the formation of collisionless shocks and will provide a unique avenue for studying the nonlinear physics of shock waves. This project investigates the parameters and experimental configurations needed for the creation of collisionless shocks in the laboratory experiments. This study is being performed with state of the art 3D kinetic plasma simulations. Recent advances in ab-initio particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of astrophysical shocks enable us to simulate shock formation on timescales and in geometries relevant to the laboratory experiments. The main goal of the proposal is to ascertain which signatures of shock physics can be extracted from the realistic experiments, accounting for limitations imposed by finite spatial and time scales in the lab. To aid the interpretation of current and future experimental data, PIC simulation data have been analyzed using the same diagnostic techniques as used in the laboratory, such as proton radiography and neutronics, to unambiguously predict the experimental signatures of relevant collisionless shock phenomena.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Gyrokinetic Simulations of Isotope Effects under Ambipolar Electric Fields and Advances Toward Whole-Volume Modeling

We review global gyrokinetic simulation studies on plasma transport in the Large Helical Device using XGC-S. XGC-S is an extended version of X-point Gyrokinetic Code for stellarators and has been progressively verified throughout the code development process. Verification tests of neoclassical transport successfully demonstrate the generation of an ambipolar electric field due to ripple-trapped particles. We perform quasi-linear analyses of the ion temperature gradient mode under the influence of the ambipolar electric field. The results reveal that the ambipolar electric field and the heavy hydrogen component in mixed isotope plasmas can lead to the favorable isotope effect observed in recent deuterium experiments. We also present recent efforts in code development toward whole-volume simulations, including the helical divertor region. A mesh generation scheme based on field-line tracing and the construction of curved surfaces perpendicular to the magnetic field would be promising for global field calculations in the whole-volume simulations.

Basic Plasma Phenomena and Gas Discharges↗
DOE OSTI2024

Code-to-code comparison between FLASH and HYDRA in gas-puff Z-pinch modeling

The numerical modeling of gas-puff Z pinches involves the nonlinear coupling of a broad range of complex, multi-physics phenomena that makes such simulations challenging. The challenge is further compounded by nonlinear instabilities that can impact the dynamics of imploding gas-puff Z pinches, such as the magneto Rayleigh–Taylor instability (MRTI). If the growth rate and amplitude of the latter is comparable to the relevant timescales and properties of the imploding plasma, the MRTI can dramatically alter implosion dynamics, dictate pinch stability, and govern the plasma properties achievable in pulsed-power-driven laboratory experiments. National Laboratories and academic teams have developed numerical tools that can accurately model Z-pinch configurations and provide reliable design capabilities that can guide experimental choices and assist in interpreting experimental results. Most such tools, however, are not broadly available. Here, we present newly developed Z-pinch simulation capabilities of the publicly available FLASH code, applied in the study of MRTI growth and dynamical effects in gas-puff implosions. To verify the new implementations, we perform a comparison of FLASH gas-puff implosion simulations with previously published calculations with the HYDRA code from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which have been validated with experimental data from the CESZAR pulsed-power driver at the University of California, San Diego. The experiments involved double- and triple-nozzle configurations, in an experimental attempt to stabilize the pinch to the MRTI. The code-to-code comparison shows similar results between the FLASH and HYDRA simulations, supporting the use of FLASH in the modeling of future gas-puff Z-pinch experiments at CESZAR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of Causal Relationships of the Cross‐Scale Wave Coupling Through Information Theoretical Approach

On 2015 October 2, MMS spacecraft observed an electron micro-injection event near the southern hemispheric high-altitude cusp, coinciding with intense wave activity across several frequency bands. Here, we investigated the MMS magnetic field and plasma during this event to explore cross-scale coupling among the wave modes. Employing the Hilbert-Huang transform, we perform an empirical mode decomposition to extract frequencies and amplitudes of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In this analysis, we establish both linear and nonlinear relationships and examine the information transfer between the IMFs. Notably, the transfer entropy suggests that high frequency ion cyclotron waves may be driven by the mirror mode structures. Our case study effectively demonstrates the utility of the information theory based tools for studying cross-scale wave coupling phenomena.

Rivera, Elmer C. [Andrews University, Berrien Spri↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Analysis of Multipactor Dynamics via Dynamic Mode Decomposition

Multipactor effect is a performance-limiting kinetic plasma effect that can occur in high-power microwave and radio frequency (RF) devices. Multipactor effect is of special concern in vacuum or near-vacuum conditions such as those in particle accelerators and spaceborne devices. In this work, we present a data-driven reduced-order model (ROM) based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) for modeling of multipactor effects. We study multipactor effects and the resulting nonlinear harmonic generation by processing high-fidelity data generated from electromagnetic particle-in-cell (EMPIC) simulations using the DMD algorithm. We also investigate time-delay embedding extensions of DMD with improved generalizability and accuracy for modeling the electron plasma current density behavior. Here, the results show that DMD provides valuable insights into multipactor phenomena by extracting relevant modal spatiotemporal patterns and frequencies. In addition, DMD offers the potential to time extrapolate EMPIC simulations at a minimal cost, thereby reducing overall simulation time.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stability optimization of energetic particle driven modes in nuclear fusion devices: the FAR3d gyro-fluid code

The development of reduced models provide efficient methods that can be used to perform short term experimental data analysis or narrow down the parametric range of more sophisticated numerical approaches. Reduced models are derived by simplifying the physics description with the goal of retaining only the essential ingredients required to reproduce the phenomena under study. This is the role of the gyro-fluid code FAR3d, dedicated to analyze the linear and nonlinear stability of Alfvén Eigenmodes (AE), Energetic Particle Modes (EPM) and magnetic-hydrodynamic modes as pressure gradient driven mode (PGDM) and current driven modes (CDM) in nuclear fusion devices. Such analysis is valuable for improving the plasma heating efficiency and confinement; this can enhance the overall device performance. The present review is dedicated to a description of the most important contributions of the FAR3d code in the field of energetic particles (EP) and AE/EPM stability. FAR3d is used to model and characterize the AE/EPM activity measured in fusion devices as LHD, JET, DIII-D, EAST, TJ-II and Heliotron J. In addition, the computational efficiency of FAR3d facilitates performing massive parametric studies leading to the identification of optimization trends with respect to the AE/EPM stability. This can aid in identifying operational regimes where AE/EPM activity is avoided or minimized. This technique is applied to the analysis of optimized configurations with respect to the thermal plasma parameters, magnetic field configuration, external actuators and the effect of multiple EP populations. In addition, the AE/EPM saturation phase is analyzed, taking into account both steady-state phases and bursting activity observed in LHD and DIII-D devices. The nonlinear calculations provide: the induced EP transport, the generation of zonal structures as well as the energy transfer towards the thermal plasma and between different toroidal/helical families. Finally, FAR3d is used to forecast the AE/EPM stability in operational scenarios of future devices as ITER, CFETR, JT60SA and CFQS as well as possible approaches to optimization with respect to variations in the most important plasma parameters.

Alfv én Eigenmodes↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics Guided Simulation of Electrostatic Discharge: Technical Report

Triboelectrically-charged objects may create threshold sparks, electrostatic discharge (ESD) events, to equilibrate charge between themselves and other relatively charged objects. ESD events exhibit many complex physical phenomena. They are a nexus of several fields of physics with disparate characteristic scales: plasma physics, chemical kinetics, hydrodynamics, circuit models, etc. These scales can span many orders of magnitude from the varied collisions thermalizing information within a plasma on the $\mathcal{O}(fs/ps)$ to the physical size of the plasma channel on the $\mathcal{O}(100µm)$, to the speed of a nonlinear hydrodynamic wave propagating at $\mathcal{O}(µm, ns)$. These threshold ESD events may occur in situations of programmatic importance, delivering energy and power profiles to a “victim load” generating deleterious consequences. To predict and mitigate these consequences we must answer questions about the spark’s energy budget: how much energy goes into producing the spark channel; how much gets radiated away; how much energy is advected away into the hydrodynamics; and how much energy is delivered to a victim load. An ESD simulation toolset has been created and evolved in order to answer these questions. An appropriate, physics guided implementation for simulation can be done by gaining insight into its constituent physics and leveraging that intuition to choose a suitable numerical operator. We examine in detail the chemical kinetics, circuit discharge, and hydrodynamics to deter mine dominant regimes, values, timescales, and interactions to uncover the underlying physical dynamics. We also examine and propose model reduction schemes for high-dimensional chemical kinetics. We use past and current work with experimentally validated and theoretically-verified hydrodynamics to calculate applicability limits of the non-ionizing strong shock limit. We quantify the energy budget from a hydrodynamic perspective and demonstrate that a significant fraction of the stored energy is “earmarked” for hydrodynamic advection as an energy terminus. Lastly, we combine the constituent physics of an ESD event (chemical kinetics, circuit model, and hydrodynamics) into a cohesive, actionable toolset and obtain promising results from an isothermal test case. We then propose a viable, modular evolution of the ESD toolset based upon the performed examination of the physics uncovering dominant physical scales and the stiffness of the compositional differential system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of the weak-to-strong transition in Alfvénic turbulence from space plasma

Plasma turbulence is a ubiquitous dynamical process that transfers energy across many spatial and temporal scales in astrophysical and space plasma systems. Although the theory of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has successfully described natural phenomena, its core prediction of an Alfvénic transition from weak to strong MHD turbulence when energy cascades from large to small scales has not been observationally confirmed. Here we report evidence for the Alfvénic weak-to-strong transition in small-amplitude, turbulent MHD fluctuations in Earth’s magnetosheath using data from four Cluster spacecraft. Our observations demonstrate the universal existence of strong turbulence accompanied by weak turbulent fluctuations on large scales. Moreover, we find that the nonlinear interactions of MHD turbulence are crucial to the energy cascade, as they broaden the cascade directions and fluctuating frequencies. The observed connection between weak and strong MHD turbulence systems may be present in many astrophysical environments, such as star formation, energetic particle transport, turbulent dynamos, and solar corona or solar wind heating.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of the weak-to-strong transition in Alfvénic turbulence from space plasma

Abstract Plasma turbulence is a ubiquitous dynamical process that transfers energy across many spatial and temporal scales in astrophysical and space plasma systems. Although the theory of anisotropic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has successfully described natural phenomena, its core prediction of an Alfvénic transition from weak to strong MHD turbulence when energy cascades from large to small scales has not been observationally confirmed. Here we report evidence for the Alfvénic weak-to-strong transition in small-amplitude, turbulent MHD fluctuations in Earth’s magnetosheath using data from four Cluster spacecraft. Our observations demonstrate the universal existence of strong turbulence accompanied by weak turbulent fluctuations on large scales. Moreover, we find that the nonlinear interactions of MHD turbulence are crucial to the energy cascade, as they broaden the cascade directions and fluctuating frequencies. The observed connection between weak and strong MHD turbulence systems may be present in many astrophysical environments, such as star formation, energetic particle transport, turbulent dynamos, and solar corona or solar wind heating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fascinating physics at the edge of magnetic fusion devices

Abstract The physics of the processes at the edge of magnetic fusion devices is multifaceted and exhibits complex, nonlinear synergistic effects. Even though this region occupies only a small portion of the whole device, it plays a crucial role in overall plasma confinement, heat exhaust, and plasma–wall interactions. The latter affects not only the performance but also the lifetime of plasma-facing components and therefore remains an outstanding challenge for future fusion reactors. At the edge of fusion devices, researchers are dealing with phenomena including classical and anomalous plasma transport, atomic physics effects, and physics of plasma-facing material under strong irradiation by particle and energy fluxes. The diversity of edge physics makes it particularly attractive for young scientists. Working in this field, they can find endless possibilities to demonstrate their talents and creativity. This short review describes just some of the basic scrape-off layer and divertor plasma phenomena including divertor plasma detachment, intermittent bursts of anomalous cross-field plasma transport, plasma–material interactions, and dust in fusion plasmas, which are of particular interest in relation to fusion reactors.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of the Alfvén Wave Parametric Decay Instability Growth Rate

Alfvén waves, a fundamental mode of magnetized plasmas, are ubiquitous in space and laboratory plasmas. The nonlinear behavior of these modes is thought to play a key role in important problems in space plasma, such as the heating of the solar corona and solar wind turbulence. In particular, theoretical predictions show that these Alfvén waves may be unstable to various parametric instabilities, but space observations of these processes are limited. We demonstrate the first measurement of the Alfvén wave parametric decay instability (PDI) growth rate. Experiments are conducted on the Large Plasma Device at UCLA in which a high amplitude 𝛿⁢𝐵/𝐵 0 ∼ 0.7% pump Alfvén wave is launched from one end of the device and a smaller seed Alfvén wave is launched from the other side. When the frequency of the seed wave is chosen to match the backward wave expected from PDI, damping of the seed wave is reduced. We compare this reduction in damping to the theoretically expected PDI growth rate while accounting for acoustic mode damping. Results show agreement between measurements and theoretical predictions. As a result, this not only provides critical validation for PDI theories and simulations that could help interpret future space observations but also suggests a new way of studying similar nonlinear wave phenomena.

Alfvén waves↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unveiling the Significance of Correlations in K-Space and Configuration Space for Drift Wave Turbulence in Tokamaks

Turbulence and transport phenomena play a crucial role in the confinement and stability of tokamak plasmas. Turbulent fluctuations in certain physical quantities, such as density or temperature fluctuations, can have a wide range of spatial scales, and understanding their correlation length is important for predicting and controlling the behavior of the plasma. The correlation length in the radial direction is identified as the critical length in real space. The dynamics in real space are of significant interest because transport in configuration space is primarily focused on them. When investigating transport caused by the E×B drift, the correlation length in real space represents the size of E×B whirls. It was numerically discovered that in drift wave turbulence, this length is inversely proportional to the normalized mode number of the fastest growing mode relative to the drift frequency. Considerable time was required before a proper analytical derivation of this condition was accomplished. Therefore, a connection has been established between phenomena occurring in real space and those occurring in k-space. Although accompanied by a turbulent spectrum in k-space with a substantial width, transport in real space is uniquely determined by the correlation length, allowing for accurate transport calculations through the dynamics of a single mode. Naturally, the dynamics are subject to nonlinear effects, with resonance broadening in frequency being the most significant nonlinear effect. Thus, mode number space is once again involved. Resonance broadening leads to the detuning of waves from particles, permitting a fluid treatment. It should be emphasized that the consideration here involves the total electric field, including the induction part, which becomes particularly important at higher beta plasmas.

Weiland, Jan (ORCID:0000000253496025)↗
NASA NTRS1972

Laser amplification in an inhomogeneous plasma

The propagation of an electromagnetic wave into an inhomogeneous plasma was studied. In a plasma with large density gradients a QTX mode propagating perpendicular to the magnetic field can encounter a resonance and a cutoff separated by a distance comparable to the incident wave length. In this region the wave is evanescent, and in general there will be a reflected and transmitted wave, and amplification will occur in the region near the resonance. The amplification is important for the study of nonlinear phenomena and for feedback stabilization applications.

White, R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Low-frequency ionization-driven instability of a discrete auroral arc model

The low-frequency (time scales of tens of seconds) dynamics of the auroral ionosphere differs from that of the nonauroral ionosphere by the presence of strong, unstable space- and time-dependent ionospheric ionization produced by precipitating auroral electrons. If recombination is relatively unimportant (as at high ionospheric heights), it is shown that, in general, transport processes cannot remove this ionization as fast as it is created, and no equilibrium is possible. These nonequilibrium phenomena are investigated in the context of a nonlinear adiabatic auroral model, which has previously been studied in static situations. A linearized local perturbation analysis is given of what amounts to a current-driven E x B gradient-drift instability with an ionization source, as well as some exact nonlinear solutions valid in a finite but limited spatial region. These solutions show continuing motion of auroral potential and plasma density, as the aurora tries to shift its ionization problems from one place to another. The analysis gives clues to the possibility of generation of chaos and of fine-scale spatial structure.

Cornwall, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Electrostatic Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in a radially injected plasma cloud

An elecrostatic finite-sized particle simulation model is used to study the early time-scale phenomena asociated with an impulsively injected plasma, expanding radially, normal to a strong ambient magnetic field. Results of the simulation show the early formation of a radial polarization electric field due to ion-electron charge separation which causes electrons to drift in the azimuthal direction. Velocity shear within this motion gives rise to a Kelvin-Helmholtz (dioxotron) instability, creating a radial fluted pattern as the plasma expands. In the nonlinear stage of instability, azimuthal variations in the electric field are observed which cause electrons to drift across the magnetic field, thereby reducing the space charge created by energetic ion expansion. The results of a linear stability analysis reveal that for a decreasing amount of charge separation in the plasma, the number of unstable azimuthal modes at maximum growth rate increases. Also, as the thickness of the electron ring increases, a fewer number of unstable modes develops for a given amount of charge separation. It is concluded that electrons become unstable at the very early time scale, within an ion gyroperiod, and that unstable electrons lead to modification of the ion dynamics.

Sydora, R. D.↗