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At least 127 records · Page 7

NNREPAIR: Constraint-based Repair of Neural Network Classifiers

We present NNREPAIR, a constraint-based technique for repairing neural network classifiers by i) fixing the logic of the network at an intermediate layer, and ii) fixing the decision conditions of the network at the last layer. NNREPAIR first uses fault localization to find potentially faulty network parameters (specifically weights) and then performs repair using constraint solving to apply small modifications to remedy the defects. We present novel strategies to enable precise yet efficient repair such as inferring correctness specifications to act as oracles for intermediate layer repair, and generation of experts wrt each class. We demonstrate the technique in the context of three different scenarios: (1) Improving the over all accuracy of a model, (2) Fixing security vulnerabilities caused by poisoning of training data and (3) Improving the robustness of the network against adversarial attacks. Our evaluation on MNIST and CIFAR-10 models shows that NNREPAIR can improve the accuracy by 45.56% on poisoned data and 11.11% on adversarial data. NNREPAIR also provides improvement, albeit modest, in the overall accuracy of models, without requiring new data or re-training.

Repair↗

Recent studies of magnetic canopies

Two current studies are described which stem from Giovanelli's seminal studies of the spreading of chromospheric fields near active regions and active-region network. First, improved observational techniques are described for obtaining magnetograms in the Ca II 8542 A, Fe I 8688 A, and C I 9111 A lines which at least in principle allow for more accurate treatment of instrumental noise and allow better inference of field orientation. Second, a generalized response function is developed for calculating theoretical magnetograph signals from arbitrary line-of-sight variations of magnetic field, and initial applications to two-dimensional, potential-field models of network fields are described. Preliminary indications are that potential-field models can better explain the presence of low-lying, diffuse horizontal fields than can thin flux-tube models, but fail to predict a differential response between the different lines.

Jones, H. P.↗

The design and application of a Transportable Inference Engine (TIE1)

A Transportable Inference Engine (TIE1) system has been developed by the author as part of the Interactive Experimenter Planning System (IEPS) task which is involved with developing expert systems in support of the Spacecraft Control Programs Branch at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Unlike traditional inference engines, TIE1 is written in the C programming language. In the TIE1 system, knowledge is represented by a hierarchical network of objects which have rule frames. The TIE1 search algorithm uses a set of strategies, including backward chaining, to obtain the values of goals. The application of TIE1 to a spacecraft scheduling problem is described. This application involves the development of a strategies interpreter which uses TIE1 to do constraint checking.

Mclean, David R.↗

The design and application of a Transportable Inference Engine (TIE1)

A Transportable Inference Engine (TIE1) system has been developed by the author as part of the Interactive Experimenter Planning System (IEPS) task which is involved with developing expert systems in support of the Spacecraft Control Programs Branch at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Unlike traditional inference engines, TIE1 is written in the C programming language. In the TIE1 system, knowledge is represented by a hierarchical network of objects which have rule frames. The TIE1 search algorithm uses a set of strategies, including backward chaining, to obtain the values of goals. The application of TIE1 to a spacecraft scheduling problem is described. This application involves the development of a strategies interpreter which uses TIE1 to do constraint checking.

Mclean, David R.↗

Optimal Experimental Design With Fast Neural Network Surrogate Models

Designing optimal experiments minimizes the uncertainty of results and maximizes the efficient use of resources. Herein, machine learning surrogate models and the approximate coordinate exchange (ACE) algorithm are used to determine optimum experimental designs over large or arbitrarily restrictive design spaces. Optimal experimental design is particularly salient in materials science where experiments are expensive and material properties must often be inferred indirectly. The proposed framework is demonstrated by finding optimal experiments with which the hidden constituent properties of composite materials can be most efficiently inferred from observable experimental outcomes. The optimum experimental design is given by an information-theoretic criteria, which maximizes the conditional mutual information between the hidden properties and the expected experimental outcomes. To perform tractable optimization a neural network is trained as a surrogate model to mimic a physics based simulation, which can calculate the expected experimental outcome based on a candidate experimental design and sampled constituent properties. The ACE algorithm is used to optimize over large design spaces with many tests and controlled parameters where an exhaustive search would be intractable even with the surrogate model. Using this approach, optimal experimental designs that are consistent with those produced by heuristic knowledge and established best practices are found; then optimal designs in larger design spaces where heuristic knowledge is unavailable are examined.

machine learning↗

A Comparison of Solar p-Mode Parameters from MDI and Gong: Mode Frequencies and Structure Inversions

Helioseismic analysis of solar global oscillations allows investigation of the internal structure of the Sun. One important test of the reliability of the inferences from helioseismology is that the results from independent sets of contemporaneous data are consistent with one another. Here we compare mode frequencies from the Global Oscillation Network Group and Michelson Doppler Imager on board SOHO and resulting inversion results on the Sun's internal structure. The average relative differences between the data sets are typically less than 1 x 10(exp -5) substantially smaller than the formal errors in the differences; however, in some cases the frequency differences show a systematic behavior that might nonetheless influence the inversion results. We find that the differences in frequencies are not a result of instrumental effects but are almost entirely related to the data pipeline software. Inversion of the frequencies shows that their differences do not result in any significant effects on the resulting inferences on solar structure. We have also experimented with fitting asymmetric profiles to the oscillation power spectra and find that, compared with the symmetric fits, this causes no significant change in the inversion results.

Basu, S.↗

Algorithm Optimally Orders Forward-Chaining Inference Rules

People typically develop knowledge bases in a somewhat ad hoc manner by incrementally adding rules with no specific organization. This often results in a very inefficient execution of those rules since they are so often order sensitive. This is relevant to tasks like Deep Space Network in that it allows the knowledge base to be incrementally developed and have it automatically ordered for efficiency. Although data flow analysis was first developed for use in compilers for producing optimal code sequences, its usefulness is now recognized in many software systems including knowledge-based systems. However, this approach for exhaustively computing data-flow information cannot directly be applied to inference systems because of the ubiquitous execution of the rules. An algorithm is presented that efficiently performs a complete producer/consumer analysis for each antecedent and consequence clause in a knowledge base to optimally order the rules to minimize inference cycles. An algorithm was developed that optimally orders a knowledge base composed of forwarding chaining inference rules such that independent inference cycle executions are minimized, thus, resulting in significantly faster execution. This algorithm was integrated into the JPL tool Spacecraft Health Inference Engine (SHINE) for verification and it resulted in a significant reduction in inference cycles for what was previously considered an ordered knowledge base. For a knowledge base that is completely unordered, then the improvement is much greater.

James, Mark↗

The state of the atmosphere as inferred from the FGGE satellite observing systems during SOP-1

The statistical properties, and coverage, of satellite temperature sounding data are described. Tropical regions are observed every two days, extratropics from one to four times a day. Oceans are covered two to three times a day. Asynoptic coverage is comparable to the U.S. rawinsonde network twice daily coverage. Lack of ground truth for data sparse areas makes accuracy difficult to assess. The rms differences of layer mean temperatures obtained from collocating rawinsonde observations with satellite temperature profiles in space and time differ from rms differences of layer mean satellite temperature soundings. The FGGE satellite systems can infer the three dimensional motion field and improve the representation of the large scale state of the atmosphere.

Halem, M.↗

Variation in Global Chemical Composition of PM2.5: Emerging Results from SPARTAN

The Surface PARTiculate mAtter Network (SPARTAN) is a long-term project that includes characterization of chemical and physical attributes of aerosols from filter samples collected worldwide. This paper discusses the ongoing efforts of SPARTAN to define and quantify major ions and trace metals found in fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5). Our methods infer the spatial and temporal variability of PM (sub 2.5) in a cost-effective manner. Gravimetrically weighed filters represent multi-day averages of PM (sub 2.5), with a collocated nephelometer sampling air continuously. SPARTAN instruments are paired with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sun photometers to better understand the relationship between ground-level PM (sub 2.5) and columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD). We have examined the chemical composition of PM (sub 2.5) at 12 globally dispersed, densely populated urban locations and a site at Mammoth Cave (US) National Park used as a background comparison. So far, each SPARTAN location has been active between the years 2013 and 2016 over periods of 2-26 months, with an average period of 12 months per site. These sites have collectively gathered over 10 years of quality aerosol data. The major PM (sub 2.5) constituents across all sites (relative contribution plus or minus Standard Deviation) are ammoniated sulfate (20 percent plus or minus 11 percent), crustal material (13.4 percent plus or minus 9.9 percent), equivalent black carbon (11.9 percent plus or minus 8.4 percent), ammonium nitrate (4.7 percent plus or minus 3.0 percent), sea salt (2.3 percent plus or minus 1.6 percent), trace element oxides (1.0 percent plus or minus 1.1 percent), water (7.2 percent plus or minus 3.3 percent) at 35 percent relative humidity, and residual matter (40 percent plus or minus 24 percent). Analysis of filter samples reveals that several PM (sub 2.5) chemical components varied by more than an order of magnitude between sites. Ammoniated sulfate ranges from 1.1 microns per cubic meter (Buenos Aires, Argentina) to 17 microns per cubic meter (Kanpur, India in the dry season). Ammonium nitrate ranged from 0.2 microns per cubic meter (Mammoth Cave, in summer) to 6.8 microns per cubic meter (Kanpur, dry season). Equivalent black carbon ranged from 0.7 microns per cubic meter (Mammoth Cave) to over 8 microns per cubic meter (Dhaka, Bangladesh and Kanpur, India). Comparison of SPARTAN vs. coincident measurements from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network at Mammoth Cave yielded a high degree of consistency for daily PM (sub 2.5) (r squared equals 0.76, slope equals 1.12), daily sulfate (r squared equals 0.86, slope equals 1.03), and mean fractions of all major PM (sub 2.5) components (within 6 percent). Major ions generally agree well with previous studies at the same urban locations (e.g. sulfate fractions agree within 4 percent for 8 out of 11 collocation comparisons). Enhanced anthropogenic dust fractions in large urban areas (e.g. Singapore, Kanpur, Hanoi, and Dhaka) are apparent from high Zn to Al ratios. The expected water contribution to aerosols is calculated via the hygroscopicity parameter kappa (sub v (volume)) for each filter. Mean aggregate values ranged from 0.15 (Ilorin) to 0.28 (Rehovot). The all-site parameter mean is 0.20 plus or minus 0.04. Chemical composition and water retention in each filter measurement allows inference of hourly PM (sub 2.5) at 35 percent relative humidity by merging with nephelometer measurements. These hourly PM (sub 2.5) estimates compare favourably with a beta attenuation monitor (MetOne) at the nearby US embassy in Beijing, with a coefficient of variation r squared equals 0.67 (number equals 3167), compared to r squared equals 0.62 when v (volume) was not considered. SPARTAN continues to provide an open-access database of PM (sub 2.5) compositional filter information and hourly mass collected from a global federation of instruments.

Snider, Graydon↗

Maximum Rates of Olivine Dissolution on Mars

This work is a first step in constraining olivine alteration rates on Mars. By bounding dissolution rates of olivine, we can make inferences about the temporal extent of aqueous alteration on the surface. Several hypothesized low-temperature surface aqueous alteration processes include valley network formation from release of groundwater during impact or gully formation from snow melt, both of which may occur over a period of several thousand years. Outflow channels may have formed during brief floods lasting less than a year. If large bodies of water were present during a warm, wet period, large standing bodies of water may have been present for 104 to 109 years. High-temperature alteration processes include hydrothermal activity associated with impacts and magmatic features. These features may remain active for 104 to 106 years. Table 2 summarizes speculated duration times of these aqueous processes. For comparison, we have determined minimum olivine residence times (time until complete dissolution) for 1 mm diameter particles to range from much less than one year to approximately 5,000 years.

J D Stopar↗

Tracer Transport Differences: Challenges and Implications for Flux Inversions

This poster demonstrates that different chemistry transport models (CTMs), each extensively validated, can have significant differences in the predicted transport of long-lived trace gases. For carbon dioxide (CO2), this difference is 0.5 ppm or greater in the total column. The value exceeds the nominal retrieval error requirements of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), which were chosen based on the understanding of the accuracy necessary to infer surface fluxes of CO2 on regional and seasonal scales. This suggests that the transport errors of CTMs play a considerable role in the surface flux inversion of satellite-based measurements of long-lived trace gases and the interpretation of the inferred fluxes requires a careful understanding of this role.

Weir, B.↗

Diurnal Cycles in SST: Coupled Data Assimilation and Future Observational Requirements

Most operational centers are developing coupled (atmosphere-ocean) data assimilation systems as an alternative to uncoupled counterparts (atmosphere- or ocean-only). The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the key variables that tightly connects the atmosphere and ocean states and also air-sea fluxes. However, current prototype coupled data assimilation systems rely on external (L4) gridded SST or along-track (L3 or L2) SST retrievals as observed data or relaxation field. But in reality, SST are measurements are available from sparse in-situ network of ships, moorings, and buoys; all of them combined together are far less than those from satellites. However, satellites do not directly measure temperature, and inferring SST from satellite measured radiances requires a radiative transfer model, its calibration and also bias correction.The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is developing a coupled data assimilation system which assimilates SST directly from the raw observations, i.e., satellite radiances and in-situ observations. The methodology to directly assimilate radiances for SST became operational in Jan, 2017 in the GMAO's near-real time Weather Analysis and Prediction System. There were many modifications to the GMAO system in order to implement SST assimilation, most of which generally improved the predictability of the system. In order to maintain and further improve this system, we advocate for the availability of a microwave satellite radiometer in future beyond the currently operational GPM- GMI and AMSR-2 missions. For improved modeling of the near-surface temperature, salinity and mixing processes, we suggest adding more than one temperature sensor and salinity sensors to the drifting buoy network.

Akella, Santha↗

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity. The first research area – meteoroid ablation mechanisms – has focused on performing novel high-enthalpy wind tunnel experiments on meteorites and meteorite analogs, and utilizing the resulting data to develop high-fidelity models for impactor mass loss at scale. These efforts have resulted in several insights. Of note, these data suggest a differential vaporization process where volatiles are liberated preferentially when the asteroidal material is subject to high heat, while refractory components remain in the molten layer on the surface. A numerical model has been developed which considers this phenomena, and its effect on the bulk impactors effective heat of ablation is examined. The second research thrust that is discussed is focused on accurate modeling of impactor radiation phenomena. While another submission to the conference will discuss the application of our approach to thermal ground damage modeling, here, we present an overview of our extensive efforts to utilize available ground- and space-based observations of large bolides (~1m diameter, and above) to inform and validate our detailed modeling approaches. These methods have been shown to accurately reconstruct the detailed spectra for the Benesov bolide, as well as approximate the burn footprint for the Tunguska event. Recent effort has focused on reconciling light curve data from multiple sources (all-sky camera networks, GLM, US government sensors), using our validated model, and providing a calibrated model for luminous efficiency which can then be utilized to infer impactor properties such as shape, mass, and composition. This work will be demonstrated through an exemplar case study focusing on a large bolide event with observational data (e.g. Chelyabinsk, Flensburg, etc.). Finally, our team’s assessment on the current maturity of atmospheric entry models, and priorities for future research will be provided.

ATAP↗

Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

We implement a 2-time slice dynamic Bayesian network (2T-DBN) framework and make a 1-D state estimation simulation, an extension of the experiment in (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000) and compare different filtering techniques. Furthermore, we demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid DBN is possible by simulating fault detection in a watertank system, an extension of the experiment in (Koller & Lerner, 2000) using a hybrid 2T-DBN. In both experiments, we perform approximate inference using standard filtering techniques, Monte Carlo methods and combinations of these. In the watertank simulation, we also demonstrate the use of 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation. We show that the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and UKF in a particle filtering framework outperform the generic particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and EKF in a particle filtering framework with respect to accuracy in terms of estimation RMSE and sensitivity with respect to choice of network structure. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the watertank simulation using UKF and PFUKD and show that the algorithms are more sensitive to changes in the measurement noise level that the process noise level. Theory and implementation is based on (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000).

Andersen, Morten Nonboe↗

Estimation and Bias Correction of Aerosol Abundance using Data-driven Machine Learning and Remote Sensing

Air quality information is increasingly becoming a public health concern, since some of the aerosol particles pose harmful effects to peoples health. One widely available metric of aerosol abundance is the aerosol optical depth (AOD). The AOD is the integrated light extinction coefficient over a vertical atmospheric column of unit cross section, which represents the extent to which the aerosols in that vertical profile prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering. The comparison between the AOD measured from the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) system and the satellite MODIS instruments at 550 nm shows that there is a bias between the two data products. We performed a comprehensive analysis exploring possible factors which may be contributing to the inter-instrumental bias between MODIS and AERONET. The analysis used several measured variables, including the MODIS AOD, as input in order to train a neural network in regression mode to predict the AERONET AOD values. This not only allowed us to obtain an estimate, but also allowed us to infer the optimal sets of variables that played an important role in the prediction. In addition, we applied machine learning to infer the global abundance of ground level PM2.5 from the AOD data and other ancillary satellite and meteorology products. This research is part of our goal to provide air quality information, which can also be useful for global epidemiology studies.

Malakar, Nabin K.↗

Planning in time - Windows and durations for activities and goals

The present general purpose automated planner/scheduler generates parallel plans aimed at the achievement of goals having imposed time constraints, with both durations and start time windows being specifiable for sets of goal conditions. Deterministic durations of such parallel plan activities as actions, events triggered by circumstances, inferences, and scheduled events entirely outside the actor's control, are explicitly modeled and may be any computable function of the activity variables. The final plan network resembles a PERT chart. Examples are given from the traditional 'blocksworld', and from a realistic 'Spaceworld' in which an autonomous spacecraft photographs objects in deep space and transmits the information to earth.

Vere, S. A.↗

Contact Graph Routing

Contact Graph Routing (CGR) is a dynamic routing system that computes routes through a time-varying topology of scheduled communication contacts in a network based on the DTN (Delay-Tolerant Networking) architecture. It is designed to enable dynamic selection of data transmission routes in a space network based on DTN. This dynamic responsiveness in route computation should be significantly more effective and less expensive than static routing, increasing total data return while at the same time reducing mission operations cost and risk. The basic strategy of CGR is to take advantage of the fact that, since flight mission communication operations are planned in detail, the communication routes between any pair of bundle agents in a population of nodes that have all been informed of one another's plans can be inferred from those plans rather than discovered via dialogue (which is impractical over long one-way-light-time space links). Messages that convey this planning information are used to construct contact graphs (time-varying models of network connectivity) from which CGR automatically computes efficient routes for bundles. Automatic route selection increases the flexibility and resilience of the space network, simplifying cross-support and reducing mission management costs. Note that there are no routing tables in Contact Graph Routing. The best route for a bundle destined for a given node may routinely be different from the best route for a different bundle destined for the same node, depending on bundle priority, bundle expiration time, and changes in the current lengths of transmission queues for neighboring nodes; routes must be computed individually for each bundle, from the Bundle Protocol agent's current network connectivity model for the bundle s destination node (the contact graph). Clearly this places a premium on optimizing the implementation of the route computation algorithm. The scalability of CGR to very large networks remains a research topic. The information carried by CGR contact plan messages is useful not only for dynamic route computation, but also for the implementation of rate control, congestion forecasting, transmission episode initiation and termination, timeout interval computation, and retransmission timer suspension and resumption.

Burleigh, Scott C.↗

Middleware Evaluation and Benchmarking for Use in Mission Operations Centers

Middleware technologies have been promoted as timesaving, cost-cutting alternatives to the point-to-point communication used in traditional mission operations systems. However, missions have been slow to adopt the new technology. The lack of existing middleware-based missions has given rise to uncertainty about middleware's ability to perform in an operational setting. Most mission architects are also unfamiliar with the technology and do not know the benefits and detriments to architectural choices - or even what choices are available. We will present the findings of a study that evaluated several middleware options specifically for use in a mission operations system. We will address some common misconceptions regarding the applicability of middleware-based architectures, and we will identify the design decisions and tradeoffs that must be made when choosing a middleware solution. The Middleware Comparison and Benchmark Study was conducted at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center to comprehensively evaluate candidate middleware products, compare and contrast the performance of middleware solutions with the traditional point- to-point socket approach, and assess data delivery and reliability strategies. The study focused on requirements of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, validating the potential use of middleware in the GPM mission ground system. The study was jointly funded by GPM and the Goddard Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC), a virtual organization for providing mission enabling solutions and promoting the use of appropriate new technologies for mission support. The study was broken into two phases. To perform the generic middleware benchmarking and performance analysis, a network was created with data producers and consumers passing data between themselves. The benchmark monitored the delay, throughput, and reliability of the data as the characteristics were changed. Measurements were taken under a variety of topologies, data demands, and data characteristics, using several middleware products. All results were compared to systems using traditional point-to-point socket communication. By comparing performance results under Merent settings, inferences could be made about each middleware's ability to meet certain requirements of the GPM mission. The second phase simulated a middleware-based mission operations center. Actual mission support tools were either used or simulated to create real world demands on the middleware. Network and computer demands were watched closely to verify that no specific idiosyncrasies of mission operations activities would prove unsupportable by the middleware. In our presentation, we will address some commonly accepted misconceptions concerning middleware in mission support architectures. Specifically, we will focus on the perception that middleware solutions are too slow or impose too much overhead for real-time mission operations, and that middleware solutions are too expensive for small

Antonucci, Rob↗