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DOE OSTI2024

A Medium‐Sized Paleo‐Tsunami Reconstruction by a Deep Neural Network Processing Sedimentary Deposits

Abstract Reconstructing the magnitude and recurrence time of tsunamis, one of the most destructive and unpredictable natural hazards impacting coastal communities, is essential. While major tsunamis are the most studied due to their disastrous impact, small/medium tsunamis (SMTs) are much more frequent and can still significantly impact the coast. Therefore, SMTs potentially provide an extensive archive of information preserved in the geological record. Analyzing the deposits of small/medium paleo‐tsunamis (SMPTs) opens a window into when their direct observation was unavailable. However, deposits of SMPTs are often degraded, traditional sediment deposition inversion models might fail. Recent research has shown that Deep Neural Networks (DNN) can effectively reconstruct the flow conditions of major tsunamis from their deposits. We evaluate the effectiveness of this approach in reconstructing the characteristics of a recent medium size tsunami (2006 Java) and of a medium paleo‐tsunami (1929 Grand Banks). We successfully reconstruct the flow characteristics of the 2006 Java event and show that an inversion of comparable quality is possible for the 1929 Grand Banks tsunami, despite greater uncertainties due to the deposit degradation. Our research shows that Machine Learning has the potential to unseal the meaning of data of thousands SMPTs.

Batubo, P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regional and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric River Seasonality: Influences of Detection Algorithms and Moisture Transport Dynamics

Abstract Understanding the regional and temporal variability of atmospheric river (AR) seasonality is crucial for preparedness and mitigation of extreme events. While ARs were thought to peak in winter, recent research shows they exhibit region‐specific seasonality and are heavily influenced by the chosen detection algorithm. This study examines the link between the year‐to‐year consistency of peak‐AR activity to the presence of a dominant seasonal pattern, considering both location and algorithm choice. Regions are categorized by their temporal characteristics: consistent patterns (e.g., East Asia), patterns with occasional outliers (e.g., British Columbia coast), and regions lacking a clear dominant peak season (e.g., South Atlantic, parts of Australia). Hence, not all regions display a consistent seasonal cycle of AR activity. This study quantifies the extent to which a region experiences a dominant peak season of AR activity (or lacks one) and offers insights to enhance decision‐making in water management, natural hazard preparedness, and forecasting. Furthermore, given our finding that detection algorithms influence the peak season of AR activity, we also examine two diagnostic variables representative of moisture transport to corroborate our results. Integrated vapor transport, which captures meridional and zonal moisture transport, and Moist Wave Activity, representing moisture intrusions from lower to higher latitudes, are examined. Our analysis indicates that inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle of AR activity are not solely due to discrepancies in detection algorithms but also arise from changes in moisture transport. Plain Language Summary Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are critical weather phenomena that can cause extreme events like heavy rainfall and flooding. Understanding when and where ARs are most likely to occur throughout the year is essential for preparing and responding to these events. Traditionally, ARs were thought to peak in winter, but recent studies show this varies by region. Our study helps address the challenge decision‐makers face in anticipating and preparing for AR events by providing insights into the consistency of peak seasonal patterns across different areas. Some regions, like East Asia, and the British Columbia coast, show a consistent peak season, while others, like the South Atlantic and parts of Australia, have significant year‐to‐year variations, making it hard to identify a dominant season. To better understand these changes over time, the study also examines how moisture moves in the atmosphere, using Integrated Vapor Transport (which looks at moisture movement in various directions) and Moist Wave Activity (which tracks moisture shifts from lower to higher latitudes). The findings suggest that inconsistencies in AR patterns are due not only to detection methods but also due to changes in moisture transport. Key Points The peak season of atmospheric river activity can change depending on the year in some areas Interannual variations in the peak season can make identifying a dominant season challenging for some regions Frequent shifts in peak season across years reflect inconsistencies tied to detection algorithms and to underlying dynamics

Kamnani, Diya↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainties in Simulating Flooding During Hurricane Harvey Using 2D Shallow Water Equations

Abstract Flooding is one of the most impactful weather‐related natural hazards. Numerical models that solve the two dimensional (2D) shallow water equations (SWE) represent the first‐principles approach to simulate all types of spatial flooding, such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flooding, and their compound dynamics. High spatial resolution (e.g., () m) is needed in 2D SWE simulations to capture flood dynamics accurately, resulting in formidable computational challenges. Thus, relatively coarser spatial resolutions are used for large‐scale simulations of flooding, which introduce uncertainties in the results. It is unclear how the uncertainty associated with the model resolution compares to the uncertainties in precipitation data sets and assumptions regarding boundary conditions when channelized flows interact with other water bodies. In this study, we compare these three sources of uncertainties in 2D SWE simulations for the 2017 Houston flooding event. Our results show that precipitation uncertainty and mesh resolution have more significant impacts on the simulated streamflow and inundation dynamics than the choice of the downstream boundary condition at the watershed outlet. We point out the viability to confine the uncertainty of coarsening mesh resolution by using the variable resolution mesh (VRM) which refines critical topographic features with far fewer grid cells. Specifically, in simulations with VRM, the simulated inundation depths over the refined region are comparable to that use the finest uniform mesh. This study contributes to understanding the challenges and pathways for applying 2D SWE models to improve the realism of flood simulations over large scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal calibration of the end-cretaceous Chicxulub impact event

The end-Cretaceous Chicxulub impact triggered Earth’s last mass-extinction, extinguishing ~ 75% of species diversity and facilitating a global ecological shift to mammal-dominated biomes. Temporal details of the impact event on a fine scale (hour-to-day), important to understanding the early trajectory of mass-extinction, have largely eluded previous studies. This study employs histological and histo-isotopic analyses of fossil fish that were coeval with a unique impact-triggered mass-death assemblage from the Cretaceous-Paleogene (KPg) boundary in North Dakota (USA). Patterns of growth history, including periodicity of δ 18 O and δ 13 C and growth band morphology, plus corroborating data from fish ontogeny and seasonal insect behavior, reveal that the impact occurred during boreal Spring/Summer, shortly after the spawning season for fish and most continental taxa. The severity and taxonomic symmetry of response to global natural hazards are influenced by the season during which they occur, suggesting that post-impact perturbations could have exerted a selective force that was exacerbated by seasonal timing. Data from this study can also provide vital hindsight into patterns of extant biotic response to global-scale hazards that are relevant to both current and future biomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sustainable urban transformations based on integrated microgrid designs

The impacts of natural hazards on infrastructure, enhanced by climate change, are increasingly more severe emphasizing the necessity of resilient energy grids. Microgrids, tailored energy systems for specific neighbourhoods and districts, play a pivotal role in sustaining energy supply during main grid outages. These solutions not only mitigate economic losses and well-being disruptions against escalating hazards but also enhance city resilience in alignment with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11. However, disregarding socioeconomic factors in defining microgrid boundaries risks perpetuating inequalities and impeding progress towards other SDG 11 targets, including fair democratic participation. Our approach integrates social and technical indicators to bolster urban microgrid planning. Through a case study in a US county, we illustrate how integrated microgrid planning effectively intertwines urban resilience, well-being and equity while promoting sustainable development. This study underscores the importance of integrated microgrid planning for sustainable and resilient urban transformation amid environmental and societal challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Research to Develop Flood Barrier Testing Strategies for Nuclear Power Plants

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed regulations regarding the siting and design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) that are aimed at addressing various natural hazards, including flooding. Flood barriers are designed to prevent water from entering NPP areas containing structures, systems, and components (SSCs) important to safety. The barriers are used at NPPs along with drains, sumps, pumps, valves, plugs, and site grading as part of the plant flood protection features that protect SSCs from experiencing external or internal flooding and mitigate the effects of flooding on NPP operations. The performance of flood protection features, including flood barriers at NPPs, has been an ongoing concern. Domestic and international operational experience provides clear indications that flood barrier performance has significant safety implications, especially for aging NPPs. The observed deficiencies show that flood barriers should be designed and installed properly, then adequately tested, inspected, and maintained in order to ensure that they perform their intended functions during flooding events. Here, this paper reviews available information related to flood barriers employed at U.S. NPPs and provides an overview and categorization of NPP flood barriers. It identifies potential domestic and international flood barrier testing facilities, including operating and decommissioned U.S. NPPs. Finally, this paper presents the technical and logistical considerations that should be made when developing specific testing strategies and protocols for flood barriers, such as the selection of flood barriers, test locations, testing approach, performance criteria, and testing parameters.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance-based simulants for Hanford radioactive waste treatment process testing

Radioactive wastes from nuclear fuel processing are stored in large underground storage tanks at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation. Treatment and remediation require that waste feed from the storage tanks be delivered to the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant continually for the duration of the treatment mission. Furthermore, the complex physical and chemical processes required for this mission, the significant scale, and the hazardous nature of the waste necessitate the use of simulants in process testing. A new class of simulants, “performance-based simulants,” has been developed to match the process performance of the simulant to actual waste performance data.

Hanford tank waste treatment↗

DOE OSTI2023

Smart Data Mapping for Connecting Power System Model and Geospatial Data

Knowing the geospatial locations of power system model elements is the foundation for analyzing system vulnerability to natural hazards and connecting loads with end users and their communities. However, power system models and geospatial data for power grid assets may have been developed asynchronously without close coordination. Creating a direct mapping between the two may be a challenging task, considering heterogeneous data structures, target uses, historical legacies, and human errors. This work aims to build an automatic data mapping workflow to connect power system model elements and geospatial data for transmission network, and to support energy grid resilience studies for Puerto Rico. The primary steps in this workflow include constructing graphs using geospatial data, and aligning them to the transmission networks defined in the power system data. The results have been evaluated against existing manual mapping practices for part of the Puerto Rico Power Grid model to illustrate the performance of such auto-mapping solutions.

Resilience, geospatial data, grid transmission net↗

DOE OSTI2023

Smart Mobility in the Cloud: Enabling Real-Time Situational Awareness and Cyber-Physical Control Through a Digital Twin for Traffic

This article presents the design, implementation, and use cases of the Chattanooga Digital Twin (CTwin) towards the vision for next-generation smart city applications for urban mobility management. CTwin is an end-to-end web-based platform that incorporates various aspects of the decision-making process for optimizing urban transportation systems in Chattanooga, Tennessee, to reduce traffic congestion, incidents, and vehicle fuel consumption. The platform serves as a cyberinfrastructure to collect and integrate multi-domain urban mobility data from various online repositories and Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, covering multiple urban aspects (e.g., traffic, natural hazards, weather, and safety) that are relevant to urban mobility management. The platform enables advanced capabilities for: (a) real-time situational awareness on traffic and infrastructure conditions on highways and urban roads, (b) cyber-physical control for optimizing traffic signal timing, and (c) interactive visual analytics on big urban mobility data and various metrics for traffic prediction and transportation performance evaluation. The platform is designed using a multi-level componentization paradigm and is implemented using modular and adaptive architecture, rendering it as a generalizable and extendable prototype for other urban management applications. We present several use cases to demonstrate CTwin's core capabilities for supporting decision-making in smart urban mobility management.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative approaches for including equity in risk and resilience infrastructure planning analyses

Risk and resilience assessments for critical infrastructure focus on myriad objectives, from natural hazard evaluations to optimizing investments. Although research has started to characterize externalities associated with current or possible future states, incorporation of equity priorities at project inception is increasingly being recognized as critical for planning related activities. However, there is no standard methodology that guides development of equity-informed quantitative approaches for infrastructure planning activities. Here, to address this gap, we introduce a logic model that can be tailored to capture nuances about specific geographies and community priorities, effectively incorporating them into different mathematical approaches for quantitative risk assessments. Specifically, the logic model uses a graded, iterative approach to clarify specific equity objectives as well as inform the development of equations being used to support analysis. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using case studies spanning aviation fuel, produced water, and microgrid electricity infrastructures. For each case study, the use of the logic model helps clarify the ways that local priorities and infrastructure needs are used to drive the types of data and quantitative methodologies used in the respective analyses. The explicit consideration of methodological limitations (e.g., data mismatches) and stakeholder engagements serves to increase the transparency of the associated findings as well as effectively integrate community nuances (e.g., ownership of assets) into infrastructure assessments. Such integration will become increasingly important to ensure that planning activities (which occur throughout the lifecycle of the infrastructure projects) lead to long-lasting solutions to meet both energy and sustainable development goals for communities.

community-based↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Disruption Resilience in Intermodal Transport Networks: Integrating Flow Weighting and Centrality Measures

Resilient intermodal freight networks are vital for sustaining supply chains amid increasing threats from natural hazards and cyberattacks. Transportation resilience has been widely studied; understanding how random and targeted disruptions affect structural connectivity and functional performance remains a key challenge. To address this, this study evaluates the robustness of the US intermodal freight network, which consists of rail and water modes, using a simulation-based framework that integrates graph-theoretic metrics with flow-weighted centrality measures. Disruption scenarios are examined, including random failures as well as targeted node and edge removals based on static and dynamically updated degree and betweenness centrality. To reflect more realistic conditions, flow-weighted degree centralities (WDC) and partial node degradation are considered. Two resilience indicators are used: (1) the size of the giant connected component to measure structural connectivity; and (2) flow-weighted network efficiency (NE) to assess freight mobility under disruption. The results show that progressively degrading nodes ranked by WDC to 60% of their original functionality causes a sharper decline in normalized NE, for up to approximately 45 affected nodes, than complete failure (100% loss of functionality) applied to nodes targeted by weighted betweenness centrality or selected at random. This highlights how partial degradation of high-tonnage hubs can produce disproportionately large functional losses. The findings emphasize the need for resilience strategies that go beyond network topology to incorporate freight flow dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Tomography 2024

Seismic tomography is the most abundant source of information about the internal structure of the Earth at scales ranging from a few meters to thousands of kilometers. It constrains the properties of active volcanoes, earthquake fault zones, deep reservoirs and storage sites, glaciers and ice sheets, or the entire globe. It contributes to outstanding societal problems related to natural hazards, resource exploration, underground storage, and many more. The recent advances in seismic tomography are being translated to nondestructive testing, medical ultrasound, and helioseismology. Nearly 50 yr after its first successful applications, this article offers a snapshot of modern seismic tomography. Focused on major challenges and particularly promising research directions, it is intended to guide both Earth science professionals and early-career scientists. The individual contributions by the coauthors provide diverse perspectives on topics that may at first seem disconnected but are closely tied together by a few coherent threads: multiparameter inversion for properties related to dynamic processes, data quality, and geographic coverage, uncertainty quantification that is useful for geologic interpretation, new formulations of tomographic inverse problems that address concrete geologic questions more directly, and the presentation and quantitative comparison of tomographic models. Finally, it remains to be seen which of these problems will be considered solved, solved to some extent, or practically unsolvable over the next decade.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Smart CO2 Transport-Route Planning Tool

NETL has developed the Smart CO2 Transport-Route Planning Tool to help inform energy transport planning and development. The stand-alone, open-source tool applies data-driven, geospatial and machine-learning informed logic to identify potential routes or evaluate existing corridors based on current legislation, best construction practices, and more. Underpinning the interactive tool, is NETL’s CO2 Transport Planning Database (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/ccs-pipeline-route-planning-database-v1). This geospatial resource contains more than 70 gigabytes of data representing more than 60 critical factors for the spatial routing of CO2 transport, including land use requirements, existing infrastructure, high consequence areas, and natural hazards.

Bipartisan Infrastructure Law↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deployment Readiness Framework Subtask 1.1 (Literature Review)

Island and remote coastal communities face some of the most challenging environments for building, operating, and maintaining energy infrastructure, as well as the highest costs for electricity, fuels, and other essential energy sources. As sea-levels rise and storms become more intense and frequent, these communities and the energy infrastructure that supports coastal lives and livelihoods are also at increasing risk from natural hazards. To address these challenges, many coastal communities are envisioning energy solutions that will support the triple bottom line goals of the blue economy: economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social equity. Yet, island and remote coastal communities often face limited resources and capacity to tackle complex energy and coastal resilience issues. To support community-driven energy transitions in island and remote communities, and to better understand relationships between energy, community, and ecosystem resilience, the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) has initiated the development of a Deployment Readiness Framework (DRF). The objective of the work is to co-produce and test practical tools and approaches that assess the readiness of coastal communities for marine energy demonstration, deployment, and operation. The DRF aims to build on and support the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) and other community-oriented energy transition programs. This project is jointly led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The development of the DRF includes three main phases: 1) a learning phase involving stakeholder engagement and literature review to synthesize metrics of community readiness to advance through an energy transition and to understand the state of the research and practice of participatory science-policy processes in various sectors, 2) a design phase to define readiness approaches and tools that will be developed as part of the DRF, and 3) an implementation phase to create the applications and interfaces for WPTO and the national laboratories to interact with the DRF. All three phases include close collaboration with communities and end-users of the framework, first to identify gaps in the science and tools needed to achieve community-driven energy transition goals and second, to test and improve the framework iteratively. Through technical assistance programs like ETIPP and utilizing the completed DRF to understand the influencing factors which motivate or deter energy transitions, WPTO hopes to engage a number of near-term marine energy demonstration opportunities. Here we report on the results from the literature review (Subtask 1.1) to inform the stakeholder engagement (Subtask 1.2) and design phase (Task 2) of the project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

LBNL CRADA (FP00009949) with the American Public Power Association: Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (Final Technical Report)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (CRADA Final Report)

LBNL and APPA (the team) jointly examined the extent to which differences in distribution feeder characteristics are correlated with differences in their reliability performance when exposed to three different types of natural hazards (wildlife, weather, and vegetation). The team employed data-driven approaches to quantify the relationships between various measures of feeder reliability and a suite of feeder characteristics individually and jointly via a statistically-based clustering method. The team developed suggestions on how comparisons across groupings of feeders and review of the relative contributions of the constituents of SAIFI and SAIDI could be used to help prioritize utility actions to improve reliability. However, they also caution that their suggestions require further evaluation because they are based on only one year of information from a modest number of small utilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning and Data Science to Advance Laboratory Earthquake Prediction and Illuminate the Mechanics of Precursors to Failure

Earthquakes represent one of our greatest natural hazards and in recent years human induced seismicity is adding to the threat. Even a modest improvement in the ability to forecast devastating large earthquakes or smaller shallow events associated with fluid injection could save thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Current efforts to forecast earthquakes are limited by knowledge of earthquake physics and hampered by a lack of reliable lab or field observations. However, recent work has provided a critical opportunity for advancement. We have found: 1) clear and consistent precursors prior to earthquake-like failure in the laboratory and 2) that lab earthquakes can be predicted using machine learning (ML). These works show that stick-slip failure events –the lab equivalent of earthquakes– are preceded by a cascade of micro-failure events that radiate elastic energy in a manner that foretells catastrophic failure. Remarkably, ML predicts the fault zone stress state, the failure time and in some cases the magnitude of lab earthquakes. In addition, the observations include clear precursors to failure in the form of changes in fault zone properties prior to lab earthquakes. Precursors have been observed in previous laboratory studies but their origin is poorly understood and their possible connection to ML based earthquake prediction is unknown. The work conducted under our project has dramatically expanded these efforts. We have developed an integrated data science approach to illuminate the physics of earthquake precursors and lab earthquake prediction. Our work has accelerated the development of ML, artificial intelligence (AI), and related data science approaches by providing massive data sets that are tightly connected to critical scientific problems and by bringing together leading subject matter experts and data scientists. Earthquake physics involves phenomena that are far from equilibrium. Our work has leveraged data science methods to illuminate these phenomena and investigate how they relate to earthquake prediction. In addition to a large database with many types of labeled events that is available to everyone, our work has advanced the fundamental understanding of seismic forecasting, earthquake physics, and fault rheology

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Geodatabase Designed to Inform and Support Safe CO2 Transport-Route Planning

The National Energy Technology Laboratory developed the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Pipeline Route Planning Database to inform safe and sustainable CO2 transport planning in support of decarbonization efforts. This comprehensive Esri Geodatabase contains over 90 GBs of data and 60+ spatial layers representing key considerations including natural hazards, infrastructure, energy, and social justice. Leveraging ArcGIS Pro, nationwide raster, and vector datasets containing millions of features were processed to be easily digestible for users and complex modeling software.

Romeo, Lucy↗