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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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120 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Mapping potentials and bridging regional gaps of renewable resources in China

Reasonable and effective use of renewable resources can reduce dependence on traditional fossil-based energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. This study mapped the spatial potentials of renewable resources (i.e., solar radiation, precipitation, wind, and geothermal resources) in China. The results showed that China's most abundant renewable resources are located in the southwestern regions, which are significantly different from the spatial distribution patterns of population and economic development. Four southwestern provinces (Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan) make up only 7% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) and 30% of the national land area but possess 58% of the renewable resources. Furthermore, we found a weak to moderate degree of negative correlation between the emergy density of renewable resources and GDP per capita on the administrative levels of the prefecture-level cities for the whole country and in its eastern, central, and western regions. This means that the socioeconomically underdeveloped Midwest has more abundant renewable resources. A distributed energy-economic system may help to bridge the regional gaps of renewable sources in China. These findings can support policy decisions for the better development and use of renewable resources in China.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. Here, at the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Thermal Scattering Law and Cross Sections of Hydrogen in Paraffin Wax

Paraffin wax is frequently used as a neutron moderator and shielding material. The main component of paraffin wax is straight-chain alkanes (n-alkanes). The deposition of paraffin wax is primarily attributed to the crystallization of n-alkanes. It is important to gain a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying the behavior of paraffin wax, which would impact the thermal scattering Law (TSL) and cross sections and affect the analysis of neutronic and critical systems. In this work, a classical molecular dynamics (CMD) simulation model was used in LAMMPS to create the TSL and cross sections at room temperature and pressure. To generate the required velocity autocorrelation functions (VACF), previously published data were used to validate the approach and models by comparing them with key model parameters. The phonon density of state (DOS) was calculated using Fourier transformation of the normalized VACF. This DOS was used as the primary input to estimate the TSL (S($a$, $β$)) and cross sections of hydrogen in paraffin wax. The TSL and cross sections of hydrogen were estimated using the Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub (FLASSH) code. The cross section of hydrogen in paraffin wax is consistent with other hydrocarbon materials such as polyethylene with deviations due to structure in the lowest energy region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Spectral and dynamical properties of single excitons, biexcitons, and trions in cesium-lead-halide perovskite quantum dots

Organic–inorganic lead-halide perovskites have been the subject of recent intense interest due to their unusually strong photovoltaic performance. A new addition to the perovskite family is all-inorganic Cs–Pb-halide perovskite nanocrystals, or quantum dots, fabricated via a moderate-temperature colloidal synthesis. While being only recently introduced to the research community, these nanomaterials have already shown promise for a range of applications from color-converting phosphors and light-emitting diodes to lasers, and even room-temperature single-photon sources. Knowledge of the optical properties of perovskite quantum dots still remains vastly incomplete. Here we apply various time-resolved spectroscopic techniques to conduct a comprehensive study of spectral and dynamical characteristics of single- and multiexciton states in CsPbX3 nanocrystals with X being either Br, I, or their mixture. Specifically, we measure exciton radiative lifetimes, absorption cross-sections, and derive the degeneracies of the band-edge electron and hole states. We also characterize the rates of intraband cooling and nonradiative Auger recombination and evaluate the strength of exciton–exciton coupling. The overall conclusion of this work is that spectroscopic properties of Cs–Pb-halide quantum dots are largely similar to those of quantum dots of more traditional semiconductors such as CdSe and PbSe. At the same time, we observe some distinctions including, for example, an appreciable effect of the halide identity on radiative lifetimes, considerably shorter biexciton Auger lifetimes, and apparent deviation of their size dependence from the “universal volume scaling” previously observed for many traditional nanocrystal systems. The high efficiency of Auger decay in perovskite quantum dots is detrimental to their prospective applications in light-emitting devices and lasers. Furthermore, this points toward the need for the development of approaches for effective suppression of Auger recombination in these nanomaterials, using perhaps insights gained from previous studies of II–VI nanocrystals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

DYNAMICS OF TURBULENT CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE OVERSHOOT IN A MODERATE-MASS STAR

We present results of realistic three-dimensional (3D) radiative hydrodynamic simulations of the outer layers of a moderate-mass star (1.47 M {sub ⊙}), including the full convection zone, the overshoot region, and the top layers of the radiative zone. The simulation results show that the surface granulation has a broad range of scales, from 2 to 12 Mm, and that large granules are organized in well-defined clusters, consisting of several granules. Comparison of the mean structure profiles from 3D simulations with the corresponding one-dimensional (1D) standard stellar model shows an increase of the stellar radius by ∼800 km, as well as significant changes in the thermodynamic structure and turbulent properties of the ionization zones. Convective downdrafts in the intergranular lanes between granulation clusters reach speeds of more than 20 km s{sup −1}, penetrate through the whole convection zone, hit the radiative zone, and form an 8 Mm thick overshoot layer. Contrary to semi-empirical overshooting models, our results show that the 3D dynamic overshoot region consists of two layers: a nearly adiabatic extension of the convection zone and a deeper layer of enhanced subadiabatic stratification. This layer is formed because of heating caused by the braking of the overshooting convective plumes. This effect has to be taken into account in stellar modeling and the interpretation of asteroseismology data. In particular, we demonstrate that the deviations of the mean structure of the 3D model from the 1D standard model of the same mass and composition are qualitatively similar to the deviations for the Sun found by helioseismology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report (Q8)

As part of Task 1, we have started by testing our modeling capabilities by reproducing isothermal DFIT simulations presented in the literature. Once satisfied with the results we have started by targeting the modeling of the DFITs at conducted at well 58-32. We have a identified a specific test (cycle 4 in zone 2) as the most interesting to be model with GEOS hydraulic fracturing module. Thus, we have first produced results with an isothermal model and adjusted model parameters to get a satisfying match with field pressure data. The, we have added thermal effects and compared the modeling results with and without thermal effects to estimate how thermal effects may influence test interpretation. Models seem to suggest that, for small volumes of fluid, thermal effects are moderate. In Task 2, we have adapted GEOS phase-field formulation to be able to simulate near-wellbore hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation. We have devised a novel formulation that, compared to other existing ones, incorporates rock strengths. We have submitted a journal publication about our work. We are currently employing this phase-field formulation to model the experiments taking place at U Pitt and help us understand the effect of various parameters. In Task 3, we have built a model of the region surround well 16A and have started modeling stage 3 stimulation because of its simpler planar geometry. After calibrating simulation parameters using known analytical solutions, we have simulated the stage 3 stimulation using our isothermal hydraulic fracturing module, varying the permeability field, the stress conditions including different physics to get a better understanding of the numerical challenges and of the effects of varying these parameters on the simulation results. In Task 4 laboratory experimentation, a set of specialized drilling and injection tools has been customized and constructed to accommodate an inclined well with an orientation of up to 30 degrees relative to material anisotropy or principal stress axes. These inclined samples have also undergone thermal stress and hydraulic fracturing at a temperature of 190 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, both vertical and deviated sampling testing setups enable an extended analysis of post-peak pressure behaviors, facilitating post-test pressure analyses such as the G-function, step rate, and fracture reopening measurements. Thus, the key components of in-situ stress estimation can be extracted and validated through our experiment, providing a solid foundation for validating existing in-situ stress estimation theories or proposing new ones. Simultaneously, we are integrating computer vision techniques with traditional experimental fracture observation methods such as multi-overcore/slicing and water-penetration fracture observation. This combination will prove beneficial in populating the hydraulic fracture patterns database, generated under challenging EGS conditions. This approach aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities in EGS reservoirs and pave the way for future data-driven investigations. Additionally, PITT has also equipped the ELE International compression machine, which is now prepared for conducting indirect tensile and fracture toughness tests. These tests will aid in characterizing how rock fabrics influence the resulting fracture patterns. Additionally, we have completed the required personnel training and gained access to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) for conducting more detailed characterization and analysis of rock fabrics, as well as the examination of thermal and hydraulically induced fracture patterns. Thus, the PITT team has effectively demonstrated the capabilities of our experimental apparatuses in exploring the thermal effects, well deviation angles, material anisotropy, and operational choices (such as circulation rate, injection fluid viscosity, and injection rate) and their impact on pressure responses and fracture trajectories under the Utah FORGE conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling thermochemistry of fuel and coupling to fuel performance codes

A thermochemical library, Thermochimica, utilizes new algorithms and solvers designed for calculating equilibria of multicomponent and multiphase systems and has been coupled to the nuclear fuel performance code BISON. Thermochimica utilizes a generalized thermochemical database for urania-based fuels that has been under development for a number of years and continues to be expanded. One of the key motivations for use of thermodynamic models is that they can better represent the physics of oxygen migration. The coupling of the BISON code with Thermochimica and examples of its use in representing fuel phenomena are described. In the current implementation in BISON, fluxes are driven by the elemental concentration gradient. However, equilibrium is characterized by the absence of spatial variations of chemical potentials of the system species/components. The driving force to equilibrium (species flux) is proportional to the deviation from equilibrium, i.e., the gradient in chemical potential. It is therefore necessary to integrate chemical potential driven diffusion in the BISON representation of oxygen transport. The diffusion kernels based on thermodynamic models have been developed to simulate multicomponent transport in light water reactor (LWR) materials. The Thermochimica library was used to calculate various thermodynamics properties needed for transport calculations. The library also can calculate properties that are specific to various transport mechanisms for different fuel materials. For example, it can calculate defect site fractions among the sublattices in oxide fuels as a function of temperature, burnup, and stoichiometry. The transport and thermodynamic models are being integrated with other simulation efforts such as calculation of mobility functions that couple fluxes and chemical gradients. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2014

BRIGHTEST CLUSTER GALAXIES AT THE PRESENT EPOCH

We have obtained photometry and spectroscopy of 433 z ≤ 0.08 brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) in a full-sky survey of Abell clusters to construct a BCG sample suitable for probing deviations from the local Hubble flow. The BCG Hubble diagram over 0 < z < 0.08 is consistent to within 2% of the Hubble relation specified by a Ω {sub m} = 0.3, Λ = 0.7 cosmology. This sample allows us to explore the structural and photometric properties of BCGs at the present epoch, their location in their hosting galaxy clusters, and the effects of the cluster environment on their structure and evolution. We revisit the L{sub m} -α relation for BCGs, which uses α, the log-slope of the BCG photometric curve of growth, to predict the metric luminosity in an aperture with 14.3 kpc radius, L{sub m} , for use as a distance indicator. Residuals in the relation are 0.27 mag rms. We measure central stellar velocity dispersions, σ, of the BCGs, finding the Faber-Jackson relation to flatten as the metric aperture grows to include an increasing fraction of the total BCG luminosity. A three-parameter ''metric plane'' relation using α and σ together gives the best prediction of L{sub m} , with 0.21 mag residuals. The distribution of projected spatial offsets, r{sub x} of BCGs from the X-ray-defined cluster center is a steep γ = –2.33 power law over 1 < r{sub x} < 10{sup 3} kpc. The median offset is ∼10 kpc, but ∼15% of the BCGs have r{sub x} > 100 kpc. The absolute cluster-dispersion normalized BCG peculiar velocity |ΔV {sub 1}|/σ {sub c} follows an exponential distribution with scale length 0.39 ± 0.03. Both L{sub m} and α increase with σ {sub c}. The α parameter is further moderated by both the spatial and velocity offset from the cluster center, with larger α correlated with the proximity of the BCG to the cluster mean velocity or potential center. At the same time, position in the cluster has little effect on L{sub m} . Likewise, residuals from the metric plane show no correlation with either the spatial or velocity offset from the cluster center. The luminosity difference between the BCG and second-ranked galaxy, M2, increases as the peculiar velocity of the BCG within the cluster decreases. Further, when M2 is a close luminosity ''rival'' of the BCG, the galaxy that is closest to either the velocity or X-ray center of the cluster is most likely to have the larger α. We conclude that the inner portions of the BCGs are formed outside the cluster, but interactions in the heart of the galaxy cluster grow and extend the envelopes of the BCGs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

AUTOIGNITION DELAY TIMES FOR REFORMATE GAS MIXTURES FROM METHANE GAS ENGINES

Methane slip is a prominent issue in natural gas reciprocating engines that are used in transportation and marine applications. The incomplete combustion that results in methane slip can be resolved with the introduction of hydrogen within the combustion mixture to improve methane oxidation and further enable combustion within the engine crevices where methane has previously remained unreacted. Steam methane reforming (SMR) is a common method used to produce hydrogen and can be used to design an onboard device to reduce methane slip from reciprocating engines. The development of this reformer device requires the validation of high-fidelity chemical kinetic models at the low temperatures of the crevice volumes of these engines. In this work, auto-ignition data is obtained using a shock tube at lean (φ—0.714 or λ—1.4) and stoichiometric (φ, λ = 1) equivalence ratios spanning a temperature range of 1042–1234 K at the 80-bar operating pressure of the test engine. Blends of methane, hydrogen, and reformate products from the SMR reaction are shock-heated in synthetic air, with the ignition delay time measured using an OH* chemiluminescence detector at 310 nm and a CH* detector at 430 nm. The experimental results are compared to several state-of-the-art chemical kinetic mechanisms from the literature. In general, most of the mechanisms show very good agreement with experiments at higher temperatures, with simulation results showing little deviation from experiments at lower temperatures. A sensitivity analysis was conducted, and the results reveal that the reaction H2 + CH3O2 = H + CH3O2H has a very significant role in determining low-temperature ignition delay times (IDTs) of SMR mixtures. These findings provide valuable insights into the chemical kinetics governing methane reformate combustion and contribute to the optimization of onboard reformer designs aimed at mitigating methane slip in natural gas-fueled engines.

Fraze, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2018

Mechanical Behavior of UO 2 at Sub-grain Length Scales: Quantification of Elastic, Plastic and Creep Properties via Microscale Testing

Techniques were developed to measure properties at sub-grain scales using depleted Uranium Oxide (d-UO2) samples heat-treated to obtain different grain sizes and oxygen stoichiometries, through three main tasks: 1) sample processing and characterization, 2) microscale and conventional testing and 3) modeling. Grain size and crystallography were characterized using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), in conjunction with Electron Backscattering Diffraction (EBSD) and Electron Channeling Contrast Imaging (ECCI). Grains were then carefully selected based on their crystallographic orientations to perform ex-situ micromechanical tests with samples machined via Focused Ion Beam (FIB), with emphasis on micro-cantilever bending. These experiments were performed under controlled atmospheres, to insure stoichiometry control, at temperatures up to 700 °C and allowed measurements involving elastic (effective Young’s modulus), plastic (critical resolved shear stresses) and creep (creep strain rates) behavior. Conventional compression experiments were performed simultaneously to compare with the ex-situ measurements and study potential size effects. Modeling was implemented using anisotropic elasticity and inelastic constitutive relations for plasticity and creep based on kinematics and kinetics of dislocation glide that account for the effects of crystal orientation, and stress. The models will be calibrated and validated using the experimental data. This project provided insight on correlations among stoichiometry, crystallography and mechanical behavior in advanced oxide fuels, provided valuable experimental data to validate and calibrate mesoscale fuel performance codes and also a framework to measure sub-grain scale mechanical properties that should be suitable for use with irradiated samples due to small volumes required. The goals and metrics of the ongoing study of thermo-mechanical behavior in depleted uranium dioxide (d-UO 2 ) outlined in this project have been concluded successfully, resulting in: 1) the successful fabrication, processing, and characterization of large-grained samples with various orientations (up to and including single crystals) having stoichiometric and hyper-stoichiometric O/U ratios; 2) formulation, calibration, and validation of a crystal plasticity constitutive model to describe the creep deformation of UO 2 at the sub-grain length scale (single crystal level) at intermediate temperatures; 3) the successful calibration of a crystal plasticity constitutive model to describe the elasto-plastic deformation of microcantilever beams, also at moderate temperatures. Samples were prepared from natural uranium oxide powder of production-quality provided by Areva. The powder was pressed in a die to a pressure of 100 MPa to produce green pellets with no sintering aids, lubricants, or any other additives. The green pellets were then heated up to 1700 °C under ultra-high purity argon atmosphere (~1 ppm O2). The atmosphere was then changed to 79% Argon, 21% O 2 and the temperature was held at 1700 °C for 2 hours to sinter the pellets under oxidative conditions [1] that are known to increase grain growth kinetics in UO 2 [2]. Samples were then cooled down under Ar-4%H2 atmosphere to reduce the samples back to stoichiometric UO 2 . For macro-scale procedures, testing of UO 2 samples with large grains was performed at 1200 °C using a modified load frame capable of applying dead-weight loads to ensure constant stress conditions, while displacement of the sample produced by the applied load was measured with high precision micrometers to obtain strains. Stress steps were used during testing and the strains were monitored to measured creep strain rates under steady state for each level of stress used, so that stress exponents could be obtained. The results of the mechanical testing, along with sample geometry and crystal orientation of the grains in the samples, as well as post-test sample characterization were used to formulate a viscoplastic model to account for steady state (stage II) creep behavior, along with basic assumptions from crystal plasticity and kinematic constraints due to testing fixtures. In the micro-scale, testing of microcantilever beams at temperatures ranging from 25 to 570 °C was performed in-situ with a scanning electron microscope with a special attachment to apply load and measure displacement while the samples were at temperature. The load-displacement curves obtained showed linear behavior before fracture for all temperatures attempted except 570 °C, where clear deviations from non-linearity were observed before fracture. These deviations were consistently observed for all samples tested for a given orientation. A viscoplastic model was used to account for the presence of inelastic strain, along with basic assumptions from crystal plasticity and beam theory. These models were kept as simple as possible, and results from tests performed in a set of samples with a given crystal orientation were used to calibrate the material constants for the model, while results from a different sample set were then used for validation, thus satisfying the conditions of all main tasks within the parameters of this project. Details of these efforts are outlined in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluation of image guided motion management methods in lung cancer radiotherapy

Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy and reliability of three target localization methods for image guided motion management in lung cancer radiotherapy. Methods: Three online image localization methods, including (1) 2D method based on 2D cone beam (CB) projection images, (2) 3D method using 3D cone beam CT (CBCT) imaging, and (3) 4D method using 4D CBCT imaging, have been evaluated using a moving phantom controlled by (a) 1D theoretical breathing motion curves and (b) 3D target motion patterns obtained from daily treatment of 3 lung cancer patients. While all methods are able to provide target mean position (MP), the 2D and 4D methods can also provide target motion standard deviation (SD) and excursion (EX). For each method, the detected MP/SD/EX values are compared to the analytically calculated actual values to calculate the errors. The MP errors are compared among three methods and the SD/EX errors are compared between the 2D and 4D methods. In the theoretical motion study (a), the dependency of MP/SD/EX error on EX is investigated with EX varying from 2.0 cm to 3.0 cm with an increment step of 0.2 cm. In the patient motion study (b), the dependency of MP error on target sizes (2.0 cm and 3.0 cm), motion patterns (four motions per patient) and EX variations is investigated using multivariant linear regression analysis. Results: In the theoretical motion study (a), the MP detection errors are −0.2 ± 0.2, −1.5 ± 1.1, and −0.2 ± 0.2 mm for 2D, 3D, and 4D methods, respectively. Both the 2D and 4D methods could accurately detect motion pattern EX (error < 1.2 mm) and SD (error < 1.0 mm). In the patient motion study (b), MP detection error vector (mm) with the 2D method (0.7 ± 0.4) is found to be significantly less than with the 3D method (1.7 ± 0.8,p < 0.001) and the 4D method (1.4 ± 1.0, p < 0.001) using paired t-test. However, no significant difference is found between the 4D method and the 3D method. Based on multivariant linear regression analysis, the variances of MP error in SI direction explained by target sizes, motion patterns, and EX variations are 9% with the 2D method, 74.4% with the 3D method, and 27% with the 4D method. The EX/SD detection errors are both < 1.0 mm for the 2D method and < 2.0 mm for the 4D method. Conclusions: The 2D method provides the most accurate MP detection regardless of the motion pattern variations, while its performance is limited by the accuracy of target identification in the projection images. The 3D method causes the largest error in MP determination, and its accuracy significantly depends on target sizes, motion patterns, and EX variations. The 4D method provides moderate MP detection results, while its accuracy relies on a regular motion pattern. In addition, the 2D and 4D methods both provide accurate measurement of the motion SD/EX, providing extra information for motion management.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of global simulations of aerosol particle and cloud condensation nuclei number, with implications for cloud droplet formation

A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 model shave been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011–2015 are compared with aerosol measurements(aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan.The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal andshort-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where dataare available, of –24% and –35% for particles with dry diameters <50 and <120 nm, as well as –36% and –34% for CCNat supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. Yet, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (<0.1%) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N 3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN 0.2 ) compared to that for N 3 , maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120 nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated o naverage by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB –13% and –22% for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6m s –1 , respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally derived values at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index of agreement 0.64 vs. 0.65). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration( ∂ N d / ∂ N a ) and to updraft velocity ( ∂ N d / ∂ w ). Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high. Discrepancies are found in sensitivities ∂ N d / ∂ N a and ∂ N d / ∂ w ; models may be predisposed to be too“aerosol sensitive” or “aerosol insensitive” in aerosol–cloud–climate interaction studies, even if they may capture average droplet numbers well.This is a subtle but profound finding that only the sensitivities can clearly reveal and may explain inter-model biases on the aerosol indirect effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗