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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Statistical modeling of software reliability

This working paper discusses the statistical simulation part of a controlled software development experiment being conducted under the direction of the System Validation Methods Branch, Information Systems Division, NASA Langley Research Center. The experiment uses guidance and control software (GCS) aboard a fictitious planetary landing spacecraft: real-time control software operating on a transient mission. Software execution is simulated to study the statistical aspects of reliability and other failure characteristics of the software during development, testing, and random usage. Quantification of software reliability is a major goal. Various reliability concepts are discussed. Experiments are described for performing simulations and collecting appropriate simulated software performance and failure data. This data is then used to make statistical inferences about the quality of the software development and verification processes as well as inferences about the reliability of software versions and reliability growth under random testing and debugging.

Miller, Douglas R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Statistical model selection for better prediction and discovering science mechanisms that affect reliability

Understanding the impact of production, environmental exposure and age characteristics on the reliability of a population is frequently based on underlying science and empirical assessment. When there is incomplete science to prescribe which inputs should be included in a model of reliability to predict future trends, statistical model/variable selection techniques can be leveraged on a stockpile or population of units to improve reliability predictions as well as suggest new mechanisms affecting reliability to explore. We describe a five-step process for exploring relationships between available summaries of age, usage and environmental exposure and reliability. The process involves first identifying potential candidate inputs, then second organizing data for the analysis. Third, a variety of models with different combinations of the inputs are estimated, and fourth, flexible metrics are used to compare them. As a result, plots of the predicted relationships are examined to distill leading model contenders into a prioritized list for subject matter experts to understand and compare. The complexity of the model, quality of prediction and cost of future data collection are all factors to be considered by the subject matter experts when selecting a final model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

A statistical model of a metallic inclusion in semiconducting media

The properties of an isolated multicharged atom embedded into a semiconducting medium are discussed. The analysis generalizes the results of the known Thomas–Fermi theory for a multicharged (Z ≫ 1) atom in vacuum when it is immersed into an electron–hole gas of finite temperature. The Thomas–Fermi–Debye (TFD) atom problem is directly related to the properties of donors in low-doped semiconductors and is alternative in its conclusions to the ideal scenario of dissociation of donors. In the existing ideal statistics, an individual donor under infinitely low doping is completely ionized (a charged center does not hold its neutralizing counter-ions). A Thomas–Fermi–Debye atom (briefly, a TFD donor) remains a neutral formation that holds its screening “coat” even for infinitely low doping level, i.e., in the region of n{sub d}λ{sub 0}{sup 3} ≪ 1, where n{sub d} is the concentration of the doping impurity and λ{sub 0} is the Debye length with the parameters of intrinsic semiconductor. Various observed consequences in the behavior of a TFD donor are discussed that allow one to judge the reality of the implications of the TFD donor model.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-82: Intra-Fraction Proton Beam-Range Verification with PET Imaging: Feasibility Studies with Monte Carlo Simulations and Statistical Modeling

Purpose: To study the feasibility of intra-fraction proton beam-range verification with PET imaging. Methods: Two phantoms homogeneous cylindrical PMMA phantoms (290 mm axial length, 38 mm and 200 mm diameter respectively) were studied using PET imaging: a small phantom using a mouse-sized PET (61 mm diameter field of view (FOV)) and a larger phantom using a human brain-sized PET (300 mm FOV). Monte Carlo (MC) simulations (MCNPX and GATE) were used to simulate 179.2 MeV proton pencil beams irradiating the two phantoms and be imaged by the two PET systems. A total of 50 simulations were conducted to generate 50 positron activity distributions and correspondingly 50 measured activity-ranges. The accuracy and precision of these activity-ranges were calculated under different conditions (including count statistics and other factors, such as crystal cross-section). Separate from the MC simulations, an activity distribution measured from a simulated PET image was modeled as a noiseless positron activity distribution corrupted by Poisson counting noise. The results from these two approaches were compared to assess the impact of count statistics on the accuracy and precision of activity-range calculations. Results: MC Simulations show that the accuracy and precision of an activity-range are dominated by the number (N) of coincidence events of the reconstructed image. They are improved in a manner that is inversely proportional to 1/sqrt(N), which can be understood from the statistical modeling. MC simulations also indicate that the coincidence events acquired within the first 60 seconds with 10{sup 9} protons (small phantom) and 10{sup 10} protons (large phantom) are sufficient to achieve both sub-millimeter accuracy and precision. Conclusion: Under the current MC simulation conditions, the initial study indicates that the accuracy and precision of beam-range verification are dominated by count statistics, and intra-fraction PET image-based beam-range verification is feasible. This work was supported by a research award RP120326 from Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Improved statistical models for limited datasets in uncertainty quantification using stochastic collocation

This paper presents a data-driven framework for performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) by choosing a stochastic model that accurately describes the sources of uncertainty in a system. This model is propagated through an appropriate response surface function that approximates the behavior of this system using stochastic collocation. Given a sample of data describing the uncertainty in the inputs, our goal is to estimate a probability density function (PDF) using the kernel moment matching (KMM) method so that this PDF can be used to accurately reproduce statistics like mean and variance of the response surface function. Instead of constraining the PDF to be optimal for a particular response function, we show that we can use the properties of stochastic collocation to make the estimated PDF optimal for a wide variety of response functions. We contrast this method with other traditional procedures that rely on the Maximum Likelihood approach, like kernel density estimation (KDE) and its adaptive modification (AKDE). We argue that this modified KMM method tries to preserve what is known from the given data and is the better approach when the available data is limited in quantity. We test the performance of these methods for both univariate and multivariate density estimation by sampling random datasets from known PDFs and then measuring the accuracy of the estimated PDFs, using the known PDF as a reference. Comparing the output mean and variance estimated with the empirical moments using the raw data sample as well as the actual moments using the known PDF, we show that the KMM method performs better than KDE and AKDE in predicting these moments with greater accuracy. This improvement in accuracy is also demonstrated for the case of UQ in electrostatic and electrothermomechanical microactuators. We show how our framework results in the accurate computation of statistics in micromechanical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Comparison of Statistically Modeled Contaminated Soil Volume Estimates and Actual Excavation Volumes at the Maywood FUSRAP Site - 13555

As part of the ongoing remediation process at the Maywood Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) properties, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) assisted the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) New York District by providing contaminated soil volume estimates for the main site area, much of which is fully or partially remediated. As part of the volume estimation process, an initial conceptual site model (ICSM) was prepared for the entire site that captured existing information (with the exception of soil sampling results) pertinent to the possible location of surface and subsurface contamination above cleanup requirements. This ICSM was based on historical anecdotal information, aerial photographs, and the logs from several hundred soil cores that identified the depth of fill material and the depth to bedrock under the site. Specialized geostatistical software developed by Argonne was used to update the ICSM with historical sampling results and down-hole gamma survey information for hundreds of soil core locations. The updating process yielded both a best guess estimate of contamination volumes and a conservative upper bound on the volume estimate that reflected the estimate's uncertainty. Comparison of model results to actual removed soil volumes was conducted on a parcel-by-parcel basis. Where sampling data density was adequate, the actual volume matched the model's average or best guess results. Where contamination was un-characterized and unknown to the model, the actual volume exceeded the model's conservative estimate. Factors affecting volume estimation were identified to assist in planning further excavations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Predicting error in detecting mammographic masses among radiology trainees using statistical models based on BI-RADS features

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explore Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) features as predictors of individual errors made by trainees when detecting masses in mammograms. Methods: Ten radiology trainees and three expert breast imagers reviewed 100 mammograms comprised of bilateral medial lateral oblique and craniocaudal views on a research workstation. The cases consisted of normal and biopsy proven benign and malignant masses. For cases with actionable abnormalities, the experts recorded breast (density and axillary lymph nodes) and mass (shape, margin, and density) features according to the BI-RADS lexicon, as well as the abnormality location (depth and clock face). For each trainee, a user-specific multivariate model was constructed to predict the trainee's likelihood of error based on BI-RADS features. The performance of the models was assessed using area under the receive operating characteristic curves (AUC). Results: Despite the variability in errors between different trainees, the individual models were able to predict the likelihood of error for the trainees with a mean AUC of 0.611 (range: 0.502–0.739, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.543–0.680,p < 0.002). Conclusions: Patterns in detection errors for mammographic masses made by radiology trainees can be modeled using BI-RADS features. These findings may have potential implications for the development of future educational materials that are personalized to individual trainees.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Statistical model of the stimulated forward Brillouin scattering driven by a randomized laser beam in plasma

The modeling of a spatially incoherent laser beam remains a central problem of the parametric instabilities in the context of inertial confinement fusion. This letter gives a simplified and comprehensive overview of the recent analytical developments regarding the modeling of these laser beams and a comparison with a dedicated experiment. Our model accounts for the first time for the statistical standard deviation of the gain and accurately captures the entanglement between wave mixing processes and the speckle correlations thus resolving the longstanding contradictions between the random phase approximation and the model of independent speckles. It is successfully compared to a recent laser beam spray experiment and the associated paraxial simulations, demonstrating that backscattering predictions require accounting for the beam spray. Furthermore, our framework thus provides a way to evaluate and guide the analysis of parametric instabilities in high laser energy experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Kinetics of State Switching in Quasi-One-Dimensional Nanosystems. Statistical Model of the Influence of Defects

The role of native and radiation-induced defects in the state switching kinetics for one-dimensional systems (nanowires, molecular single-chain magnets, biological macromolecules, and many others) has been studied. An analytical approach to the description of the influence of randomly located defects on the dynamics of new-phase domains is developed using an analogy with stochastic processes in queueing theory. This method makes it possible to calculate threshold phenomena and the dependence of switching fields on material parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Synchronized multiartifact reduction with tomographic reconstruction (SMART-RECON): A statistical model based iterative image reconstruction method to eliminate limited-view artifacts and to mitigate the temporal-average artifacts in time-resolved CT

Purpose: In x-ray computed tomography (CT), a violation of the Tuy data sufficiency condition leads to limited-view artifacts. In some applications, it is desirable to use data corresponding to a narrow temporal window to reconstruct images with reduced temporal-average artifacts. However, the need to reduce temporal-average artifacts in practice may result in a violation of the Tuy condition and thus undesirable limited-view artifacts. In this paper, the authors present a new iterative reconstruction method, synchronized multiartifact reduction with tomographic reconstruction (SMART-RECON), to eliminate limited-view artifacts using data acquired within an ultranarrow temporal window that severely violates the Tuy condition. Methods: In time-resolved contrast enhanced CT acquisitions, image contrast dynamically changes during data acquisition. Each image reconstructed from data acquired in a given temporal window represents one time frame and can be denoted as an image vector. Conventionally, each individual time frame is reconstructed independently. In this paper, all image frames are grouped into a spatial–temporal image matrix and are reconstructed together. Rather than the spatial and/or temporal smoothing regularizers commonly used in iterative image reconstruction, the nuclear norm of the spatial–temporal image matrix is used in SMART-RECON to regularize the reconstruction of all image time frames. This regularizer exploits the low-dimensional structure of the spatial–temporal image matrix to mitigate limited-view artifacts when an ultranarrow temporal window is desired in some applications to reduce temporal-average artifacts. Both numerical simulations in two dimensional image slices with known ground truth and in vivo human subject data acquired in a contrast enhanced cone beam CT exam have been used to validate the proposed SMART-RECON algorithm and to demonstrate the initial performance of the algorithm. Reconstruction errors and temporal fidelity of the reconstructed images were quantified using the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) and the universal quality index (UQI) in numerical simulations. The performance of the SMART-RECON algorithm was compared with that of the prior image constrained compressed sensing (PICCS) reconstruction quantitatively in simulations and qualitatively in human subject exam. Results: In numerical simulations, the 240{sup ∘} short scan angular span was divided into four consecutive 60{sup ∘} angular subsectors. SMART-RECON enables four high temporal fidelity images without limited-view artifacts. The average rRMSE is 16% and UQIs are 0.96 and 0.95 for the two local regions of interest, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding average rRMSE and UQIs are 25%, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively, for the PICCS reconstruction. Note that only one filtered backprojection image can be reconstructed from the same data set with an average rRMSE and UQIs are 45%, 0.71, and 0.79, respectively, to benchmark reconstruction accuracies. For in vivo contrast enhanced cone beam CT data acquired from a short scan angular span of 200{sup ∘}, three 66{sup ∘} angular subsectors were used in SMART-RECON. The results demonstrated clear contrast difference in three SMART-RECON reconstructed image volumes without limited-view artifacts. In contrast, for the same angular sectors, PICCS cannot reconstruct images without limited-view artifacts and with clear contrast difference in three reconstructed image volumes. Conclusions: In time-resolved CT, the proposed SMART-RECON method provides a new method to eliminate limited-view artifacts using data acquired in an ultranarrow temporal window, which corresponds to approximately 60{sup ∘} angular subsectors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
NASA NTRS2002

Physical and statistical modeling of Saturn's troposphere

We analyze the 5.2-pm spectra of Saturn by utilizing two independent methods: (a) physical models based on the relevant atmospheric parameters and (b) statistical analysis, based on principal components analysis (PCA), to determine the influence of the variation of phosphine and the opacity of clouds deep within Saturn's atmosphere to understand the dynamics in its atmosphere.

Saturn↗
DOE OSTI2019

Accurate spatiotemporal predictions of daily stream temperature from statistical models accounting for interactions between climate and landscape

Spatial and temporal patterns in stream temperature are primary factors determining species composition, diversity and productivity in stream ecosystems. The availability of spatially and temporally continuous estimates of stream temperature would improve the ability of biologists to fully explore the effects of stream temperature on biota. Most statistical stream temperature modeling techniques are limited in their ability to account for the influence of variables changing across spatial and temporal gradients. We identified and described important interactions between climate and spatial variables that approximate mechanistic controls on spatiotemporal patterns in stream temperature. With identified relationships we formed models to generate reach-scale basin-wide spatially and temporally continuous predictions of daily mean stream temperature in four Columbia River tributaries watersheds of the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models were validated with a testing dataset composed of completely distinct sites and measurements from different years. While some patterns in residuals remained, testing dataset predictions of selected models demonstrated high accuracy and precision (averaged RMSE for each watershed ranged from 0.85–1.54 °C) and was only 17% higher on average than training dataset prediction error. Aggregating daily predictions to monthly predictions of mean stream temperature reduced prediction error by an average of 23%. The accuracy of predictions was largely consistent across diverse climate years, demonstrating the ability of the models to capture the influences of interannual climatic variability and extend predictions to timeframes with limited temperature logger data. Results suggest that the inclusion of a range of interactions between spatial and climatic variables can approximate dynamic mechanistic controls on stream temperatures.

Siegel, Jared E.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The beta distribution: A statistical model for world cloud cover

Much work has been performed in developing empirical global cloud cover models. This investigation was made to determine an underlying theoretical statistical distribution to represent worldwide cloud cover. The beta distribution with probability density function is given to represent the variability of this random variable. It is shown that the beta distribution possesses the versatile statistical characteristics necessary to assume the wide variety of shapes exhibited by cloud cover. A total of 160 representative empirical cloud cover distributions were investigated and the conclusion was reached that this study provides sufficient statical evidence to accept the beta probability distribution as the underlying model for world cloud cover.

Falls, L. W.↗