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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

CovTransformer: A transformer model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting

With hundreds of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the global population, there is an ongoing need for predicting and forecasting lineage frequencies and thus identifying rapidly expanding lineages. Accurate prediction would allow for more focused experimental efforts to understand pathogenicity of future dominating lineages and characterize the extent of their immune escape. Here, we first show that the inherent noise and biases in lineage frequency data make a commonly-used regression-based approach unreliable. To address this weakness, we constructed a machine learning model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting, called CovTransformer, based on the transformer architecture. We designed our model to navigate challenges such as a limited amount of data with high levels of noise and bias. We first trained and tested the model using data from the UK and the USA, and then tested the generalization ability of the model to many other countries and US states. Remarkably, the trained model makes accurate predictions two months into the future with high levels of accuracy both globally (in 31 countries with high levels of sequencing effort) and at the US-state level. Our model performed substantially better than a widely used forecasting tool, the multinomial regression model implemented in Nextstrain, demonstrating its utility in SARS-CoV-2 monitoring. Assuming a newly emerged lineage is identified and assigned, our test using retrospective data shows that our model is able to identify the dominating lineages 7 weeks in advance on average before they became dominant. Overall, our work demonstrates that transformer models represent a promising approach for SARS-CoV-2 forecasting and pandemic monitoring.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

General Protocol for the Accurate Prediction of Molecular 13 C/ 1 H NMR Chemical Shifts via Machine Learning Augmented DFT

An accurate prediction of NMR chemical shifts at affordable computational cost is very important for different types of structural assignments in experimental studies. Density functional theory (DFT) and gauge-including atomic orbital (GIAO) are two of the most popular computational methods for NMR calculation, yet they often fail to resolve ambiguities in structural assignments. In this work, we present a new method that uses machine learning (ML) techniques (DFT + ML) that significantly increases the accuracy of 13 C/ 1 H NMR chemical shift prediction for a variety of organic molecules. The input of the generalizable DFT + ML model contains two critical parts: one is a vector providing insights into chemical environments, which can be evaluated without knowing the exact geometry of the molecule; the other one is the DFT-calculated isotropic shielding constant. The DFT + ML model was trained with a data set containing 476 13 C and 270 1 H experimental chemical shifts. For the DFT methods used here, the root mean square deviations (RMSDs) for the errors between predicted and experimental 13 C/ 1 H chemical shifts can be as small as 2.10/0.18 ppm, which is much lower than those from simple DFT (5.54/0.25 ppm), or DFT + linear regression (LR) (4.77/0.23 ppm) approaches. It also has a smaller maximum absolute error than two previously proposed NMR-predicting ML models. The robustness of the DFT + ML model is tested on two classes of organic molecules (TIC10 and hyacinthacines), where the correct isomers were unambiguously assigned to the experimental ones. Overall, the DFT + ML model shows promise for structural assignments in a variety of systems, including stereoisomers, that are often challenging to determine experimentally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Based Resilience Testing of an Address Randomization Cyber Defense

Moving target defenses (MTDs) are widely used as an active defense strategy for thwarting cyberattacks on cyber-physical systems by increasing diversity of software and network paths. Recently, machine Learning (ML) and deep Learning (DL) models have been demonstrated to defeat some of the cyber defenses by learning attack detection patterns and defense strategies. It raises concerns about the susceptibility of MTD to ML and DL methods. Here, in this article, we analyze the effectiveness of ML and DL models when it comes to deciphering MTD methods and ultimately evade MTD-based protections in real-time systems. Specifically, we consider a MTD algorithm that periodically randomizes address assignments within the MIL-STD-1553 protocol—a military standard serial data bus. Two ML and DL-based tasks are performed on MIL-STD-1553 protocol to measure the effectiveness of the learning models in deciphering the MTD algorithm: 1) determining whether there is an address assignments change i.e., whether the given system employs a MTD protocol and if it does 2) predicting the future address assignments. The supervised learning models (random forest and k-nearest neighbors) effectively detected the address assignment changes and classified whether the given system is equipped with a specified MTD protocol. On the other hand, the unsupervised learning model (K-means) was significantly less effective. The DL model (long short-term memory) was able to predict the future addresses with varied effectiveness based on MTD algorithm's settings.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hidden vibronic and excitonic structure and vibronic coherence transfer in the bacterial reaction center

We report two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy (2DES) experiments on the bacterial reaction center (BRC) from purple bacteria, revealing hidden vibronic and excitonic structure. Through analysis of the coherent dynamics of the BRC, we identify multiple quasi-resonances between pigment vibrations and excitonic energy gaps, and vibronic coherence transfer processes that are typically neglected in standard models of photosynthetic energy transfer and charge separation. We support our assignment with control experiments on bacteriochlorophyll and simulations of the coherent dynamics using a reduced excitonic model of the BRC. We find that specific vibronic coherence processes can readily reveal weak exciton transitions. While the functional relevance of such processes is unclear, they provide a spectroscopic tool that uses vibrations as a window for observing excited state structure and dynamics elsewhere in the BRC via vibronic coupling. Vibronic coherence transfer reveals the upper exciton of the “special pair” that was weakly visible in previous 2DES experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational investigation of hydrogen-induced phonon changes in carbon fiber

Optical vibrational spectroscopy has shown promise as a noninvasive means of monitoring the mechanical properties of carbon fiber (CF), which is increasingly used for industrial and consumer purposes. However, interpretation of optical vibrational spectra for solid materials is inferential, particularly when defects are present. Because inelastic neutron scattering (INS) spectroscopy is not subject to selection rules, the full vibrational spectra can be measured. And, identifying correlations between INS features and tensile properties can assist in the interpretation of spectra from more commonly used optical vibrational spectroscopic techniques, such as Raman and infrared (IR) spectroscopy. Recent INS experiments on high-performance commercial carbon fibers showed features near 900 and 1100 cm –1 in addition to a broad feature near 3000 cm –1 that increased in intensity with decreasing tensile strength. These features were assigned to hydrogen defects. Here, we use density functional theory to simulate the INS spectra of several hydrogen defect geometries in graphite as a model for carbon fiber structure units, confirming the experimental assignment of these peaks to hydrogen modes and providing insights into the structure and lattice dynamics of the defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep neural network for the dielectric response of insulators

In this work, we introduce a deep neural network to model in a symmetry preserving way the environmental dependence of the centers of the electronic charge. The model learns from ab initio density functional theory, wherein the electronic centers are uniquely assigned by the maximally localized Wannier functions. When combined with the deep potential model of the atomic potential energy surface, the scheme predicts the dielectric response of insulators for trajectories inaccessible to direct ab initio simulation. The scheme is nonperturbative and can capture the response of a mutating chemical environment. We demonstrate the approach by calculating the infrared spectra of liquid water at standard conditions, and of ice under extreme pressure, when it transforms from a molecular to an ionic crystal.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

DESI mock challenge: Halo and galaxy catalogues with the bias assignment method

We present a novel approach to the construction of mock galaxy catalogues for large-scale structure analysis based on the distribution of dark matter halos obtained with effective bias models at the field level. We aim to produce mock galaxy catalogues capable of generating accurate covariance matrices for a number of cosmological probes that are expected to be measured in current and forthcoming galaxy redshift surveys (e.g. two- and three-point statistics). The construction of the catalogues shown in this paper is part of a mock-comparison project within the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) collaboration. We use the bias assignment method ( BAM ) to model the statistics of halo distribution through a learning algorithm using a few detailed N-body simulations, and approximated gravity solvers based on Lagrangian perturbation theory. We introduce cosmic-web-dependent corrections to modelling redshift-space distortions at the N-body level – both in the halo and galaxy distributions –, as well as a multi-scale approach for accurate assignment of halo properties. Using specific models of halo occupation distributions to populate halos, we generate galaxy mocks with the expected number density and central-satellite fraction of emission-line galaxies, which are a key target of the DESI experiment. BAM generates mock catalogues with per cent accuracy in a number of summary statistics, such as the abundance, the two- and three-point statistics of halo distributions, both in real and redshift space. In particular, the mock galaxy catalogues display ~3%-10% accuracy in the multipoles of the power spectrum up to scales of k ~ 0.4 h -1 Mpc. We show that covariance matrices of two- and three-point statistics obtained with BAM display a similar structure to the reference simulation. BAM offers an efficient way to produce mock halo catalogues with accurate two- and three-point statistics and is able to generate a variety of multi-tracer catalogues with precise covariance matrices of several cosmological probes. We discuss future developments of the algorithm towards mock production in DESI and other galaxy-redshift surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

H-Atom Assignment and Sb–O Bonding of [Mes 3 SbOH][O 3 SPh] Confirmed by Neutron Diffraction, Multipole Modeling, and Hirshfeld Atom Refinement

Neutron wavelength-resolved Laue diffraction experiments permit accurate refinement of the H-atom positions and anisotropic displacement parameters of [Mes 3 SbOH][O 3 SPh]. A multipole-based charge density refinement and a topological analysis of the refined electron density were also performed. Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR) recovers the neutron-determined H-atom parameters, and the quantum-mechanical electron density used in HAR recovers the electron density topology from the refined multipole model. We report these results confirm that [Mes 3 SbOH][O 3 SPh] does indeed feature a hydroxystibonium cation with a nominal Sb–O single bond and not a stibine oxide with an Sb=O/Sb + –O – bond.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Classical combinatorial optimization scaling for random Ising models on 2D heavy-hex graphs

Motivated by near term quantum computing hardware limitations, combinatorial optimization problems that can be addressed by current quantum algorithms and noisy hardware with little or no overhead are used to probe capabilities of quantum algorithms such as the quantum approximate optimization algorithm. In this study, a specific class of near term quantum computing hardware defined combinatorial optimization problems, Ising models on heavy-hex graphs both with and without geometrically local cubic terms, are examined for their classical computational hardness via empirical computation time scaling quantification. Specifically the time-to-solution (TTS) metric using the classical heuristic simulated annealing is measured for finding optimal variable assignments (ground states), as well as the time required for the optimization software Gurobi to find an optimal variable assignment. Because of the sparsity of these Ising models, the classical algorithms are able to find optimal solutions efficiently even for large instances (i.e. 100 000 spin variables). The Ising models both with and without geometrically local cubic terms exhibit average-case linear-time or weakly quadratic scaling when solved exactly using Gurobi, and the Ising models with no cubic terms show evidence of exponential-time TTS scaling when sampled using simulated annealing. These findings point to the necessity of developing and testing more complex, namely more densely connected, optimization problems in order for quantum computing to ever have a practical advantage over classical computing. Our results are another illustration that different classical algorithms can indeed have exponentially different running times, thus making the identification of the best practical classical technique important in any quantum computing vs. classical computing comparison.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subhourly Clipping Correction Model Comparison

This work will compare the Allen method and Walker method of accounting for subhourly inverter clipping power losses in hourly PV performance models. The Allen method uses a matrix lookup based on DNI clearness and clipping potential to assign a clipping correction loss at each simulation timestep. The Walker method models the PV DC power input to the inverter as a distribution over the hourly timestep and uses integration over the timestep to determine the amount of clipping that occurs within the timestep. Both these models have been recently implemented in the System Advisor Model's (SAM) open-source code, and will be applied to hourly SURFRAD datasets to analyze the subhourly clipping loss predicted by each model for different system designs and inverter loading conditions. Both models will be compared to "true" 1-minute SURFRAD data simulations to see their accuracy against more accurate 1-minute clipping correction loss predictions. This model comparisons will be investigated in more detail at the PVSC conference in Seattle, Washington June 2024.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Planning of EV Fast Charging Stations and Power Distribution Systems With Balanced Traffic Flow Assignment

To tackle the challenges introduced by the fast-growing charging demand of electric vehicles (EVs), the power distribution systems (PDSs) and fast charging stations (FCSs) of EVs should be planned and operated in a more coordinated fashion. However, existing planning approaches generally aim to minimize investment costs in PDSs while ignoring the risk of worsening traffic conditions. To overcome this research gap, this article integrates the interests of traffic networks into PDS and FCS joint planning model to mitigate negative impacts on traffic conditions caused by installing FCSs. First, a novel microscopic method that is different from traditional assignment methods is proposed to simulate the influences of FCSs on traffic flows and EV charging loads. Then, a multiobjective joint planning model is developed to minimize both the planning costs and unbalanced traffic flows. A new bilayer Benders decomposition algorithm is designed to solve the proposed joint planning model. Numerical results on two practical systems in China validate the feasibility of our microscopic method by comparing the simulated results with real data. Compared with existing approaches, it is also demonstrated that the proposed joint planning approach helps to balance traffic flow assignments and relieve traffic congestion.

bilayer expanded Benders decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrostratigraphic Region 4 Model - with HSU3-4Pc

Farnsworth Unit (FWU) CO2EOR Eclipse compositional model: Hydrostratigraphic Region 4 model uses the Morrow2 (UNOCAL) relative permeability curve with HSU3-4 capillary pressure assigned homogeneously

Capillary Pressure↗