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At least 127 records · Page 7

Exploring the Meteorological Impacts of Surface and Rooftop Heat Mitigation Strategies Over a Tropical City

Different heat mitigation technologies have been developed to improve the thermal environment in cities. However, the regional impacts of such technologies, especially in the context of a tropical city, remain unclear. The deployment of heat mitigation technologies at city-scale can change the radiation balance, advective flow, and energy balance between urban areas and the overlying atmosphere. We used the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a physically based single-layer urban canopy model to assess the impacts of five different heat mitigation technologies on surface energy balance, standard surface meteorological fields, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics for premonsoon typical hot summer days over a tropical coastal city in the month of April in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Results indicate that the regional impacts of cool materials (CMs), super-cool broadband radiative coolers, green roofs (GRs), vegetation fraction change, and a combination of CMs and GRs (i.e., “Cool city (CC)”) on the lower atmosphere are different at diurnal scale. Results showed that super-cool materials have the maximum potential of ambient temperature reduction of 1.6°C during peak hour (14:00 LT) compared to other technologies in the study. During the daytime hours, the PBL height was considerably lower than the reference scenario with no implementation of strategies by 700 m for super-cool materials and 500 m for both CMs and CC cases; however, the green roofing system underwent nominal changes over the urban area. During the nighttime hours, the PBL height increased by CMs and the CC strategies compared to the reference scenario, but minimal changes were evident for super-cool materials. The changes of temperature on the vertical profile of the heat mitigation implemented city reveal a stable PBL over the urban domain and a reduction of the vertical mixing associated with a pollution dome. This would lead to crossover phenomena above the PBL due to the decrease in vertical wind speed. Therefore, assessing the coupled regional impact of urban heat mitigation over the lower atmosphere at city-scale is urgent for sustainable urban planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Security Self-Assessment Toolkit for Nuclear Materials Facilities: Focus on Insider Threat Mitigation

Theft or sabotage of weapons-usable nuclear materials is a global concern. To minimize this threat, establishing and maintaining an effective nuclear security regime is required to protect against criminal or other negligent acts. Use of a formalized insider threat mitigation program is one such security measure. Individuals who have or held authorized access to an organization's critical assets, such as nuclear materials, are considered "insiders." Insider threats, or insider adversaries, are motivated individuals who possess access, authority, and knowledge to conduct a malicious act or facilitate that of an external party. To thwart insider threats (both intentional and unintentional), organizations can formalize an enterprise-wide approach to identify and mitigate the unique risks presented by insiders. This report provides an approach to evaluate an insider threat mitigation program at facilities with nuclear materials. Formal program evaluations serve many purposes and can be designed using several different methods and techniques. This report presents a self-assessment approach to program evaluation whereby an organization can assess its strengths, identify key gaps, and set priorities for ongoing improvement efforts to mitigate insider threats. Results of the self-assessment can provide critical information to contribute to the continuous improvement of an organization’s insider threat mitigation program within eight specific domain areas.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Interference Mitigation Using Cyclic Autocorrelation and Multi-Objective Optimization

Radio frequency interference on space-to-ground communications links can degrade performance and disrupt the transfer of critical data. These interference events become increasingly likely as more users enter the spectrum, due in part to shared spectrum allocations and scheduling conflicts. If this interference could be detected and mitigated by an automated system, then link performance and reliability in these scenarios could be improved. This report describes the implementation and evaluation of an automated interference mitigation system that provides this functionality. The system uses Cyclic Autocorrelation (CAC) signal processing techniques to monitor the spectrum and detect interfering signals, and it applies a multi-objective optimization approach to mitigate interference by changing link parameters to continuously optimize the link. The implementation was evaluated to characterize its signal detection capabilities for various link qualities and to compare its link management performance to Adaptive Coding and Modulation (ACM) and Constant Coding and Modulation (CCM) when in the presence of randomized interference. In the latter evaluation, the interference mitigation system achieved the highest average throughput in each tested scenario. With these results, the proposed solution provides the groundwork for further automated link management capabilities and continued investigation into interference mitigation approaches.

Interference mitigation↗

Passive Dust Mitigation Technologies Being Developed for Demonstration Under Patch Plate Materials Compatibility Analysis Task

With the Artemis program, we are planning longer stays on the surface, with more activities that have the potential to put the astronauts and equipment in contact with greater quantities of lunar dust. The success of these missions will depend on our understanding of material interactions with lunar dust and the development of ways to mitigate dust effects in cases where exposure to dust will lead to failure of components, unacceptable loss of power or thermal control, unacceptable loss of visibility, or health issues. Passive dust mitigation by coating or surface alteration is one method that is being developed and demonstrated under the Space Technology Mission Directorate’s Game Changing Technology, Dust Mitigation Program as part of the Patch Plate Materials Compatibility Assessment Task. The goal of the task is to alter the surfaces of materials in order to passively reduce the adhesion of dust, demonstrate their performance in relevant ground-based tests using lunar simulants, and prepare them for demonstration through experiment on the lunar surface. Optically transparent, sputter deposited, work function matching coatings are being developed to reduce adhesion of dust to windows, lenses and display panels by matching the minimum energy to remove an electron from the surface to that of lunar dust in order to reduce adhesion due to charge transfer. Low surface energy coatings and surfaces for thermal control are also being developed to reduce the bonding of dust with the surface enabling it to be removed more easily. Conductive coatings with the ability to shed dust more easily are being developed for use with the active Electrodynamic Dust Shield technology to help reduce the power needed to remove dust from the surface. Passive dust mitigation surfaces for metals such as aluminum, stainless steel, and titanium are being developed that reduce the area of dust contact with the surfaces through topographical modification using laser ablation patterning to impart hierarchical topographies with nanometer to micrometer length scales in a single step. Topographically modified polymeric materials, both those with extensive space heritage and those with lower technology readiness levels, are also being evaluated. Space suit fabric surfaces that can reduce dust penetration into and through the fabric are also being investigated as well as pristine and topographically modified ceramic materials that exhibit high wear resilience. An overview of the passive dust mitigation surfaces and coatings being developed under this task, ground testing being conducted using lunar simulants, characterization techniques, and materials preparation for flight sample delivery for integration into the Alpha Space Regolith Adherence Characterization experiment going to the lunar surface on a Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) lander in 2023 will be discussed.

Lunar dust, passive mitigation, lunar simulant, co↗

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗

Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective

Mitigating carbon emissions in the current energy system will require fundamental changes of both the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations, while the energy demand sector changes are less well understood. In this study, this knowledge gap is addressed by analysing in detail the projected future energy demand projections, and the required demand-side changes to reach stringent mitigation targets using a suite of integrated assessment models. We examine industry, transport and buildings sector pathways across four models and three different reference scenarios from the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway framework which is used as a set of common future perspectives by the climate research community. The demand side mitigation efforts are compared to a more detailed, sector-specific, technology-oriented assessments of abatement potential based on a literature review for the year 2030. The results indicate that strong emission growth in the industry and transport sector can be attributed to increasing final energy per capita and population growth. In the stringent mitigation scenarios energy efficiency, electrification and switching to low carbon fuel are all required in the short term. In the green growth SSP1 scenario the required emission reduction is significantly less than other scenarios showing that the demand growth and the technology development largely affects the sectors’ mitigation challenge. The technology assessment estimates that in particular in the transport and buildings sector there is a higher potential to reduce demand-side emissions through energy efficiency improvements than currently envisioned in the integrated assessment models.

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.↗

Field-based AFDD for refrigerant undercharge in residential HVAC systems: enhancing reliability through false alarm mitigation

This study evaluated rule-based and machine learning (ML) based automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) algorithms for detecting refrigerant undercharge faults in residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, using actual building data and a minimal set of features. The ML-based algorithms included Decision Tree (DT) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). Both the rule-based and ML-based algorithms demonstrated the capability to detect refrigerant undercharge faults of -30% or more. Both types of algorithms exhibited false alarms before the implementation of a false alarm mitigation algorithm, which motivated the development of such a mitigation strategy. After applying the mitigation, false alarms were substantially reduced, with the rule-based algorithm decreasing to 0.6% and the ML-based algorithms reaching 0%, while maintaining strong detection performance. Although the rule-based algorithm initially showed lower performance compared to the ML-based algorithms, its detection accuracy improved after mitigation to a level comparable to the ML-based algorithms. These results confirm that combining false alarm mitigation with both rule-based and ML-based AFDD algorithms significantly enhances practical reliability while preserving robust fault detection capabilities. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate the potential for field deployment of these algorithms in residential HVAC systems and highlight the importance of minimizing false alarms.

False Alarm↗

Cellulosic biorefinery portfolio and diversification: Strategies to mitigate cellulosic biorefinery risks in US Corn Belt

Several studies have highlighted that one of the largest risks with cellulosic biorefinery investments are year-to-year variability in cellulosic biomass quantity available. Yet, strategies to mitigate these risks in biofuel development are less understood. In the absence of strategies to minimize the impact due to these variations, both biorefineries and farmers venturing into the cellulosic biofuel arena will be significantly exposed. Studies have been done on using engineering approaches, such as biomass pre- treatment and storage to address biomass supply variations. Recent studies have provided market structure and contracting strategies to manage biomass supply risks. However, storage, pre-treatment and similar engineering approaches lead to higher costs and has other limitations such as additional infrastructural requirements. There is a gap in understanding the use of feedstock (biomass) diversifi- cation and portfolio strategies to mitigate such risks. In this study a portfolio approach is developed and applied to the case of the US Corn Belt, considering various types of cellulosic biomass including corn stover, wheat straw, and switchgrass. It is found that feedstock diversification mitigates up to 40% of feedstock supply variations, while biorefinery diversification can mitigate up to 70% of feedstock supply variations although it is constrained by current cropland use patterns in the region. Altogether, diversification and portfolio strategies present an effective way for mitigating risks associated with feedstock supply variations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Nanoscale Protection Layers To Mitigate Degradation in High-Energy Electrochemical Energy Storage Systems

In the pursuit of energy storage devices with higher energy and power, new ion storage materials and high-voltage battery chemistries are of paramount importance. Yet, they invite—and often enhance—degradation mechanisms, which are reflected in capacity loss with charge/discharge cycling and sometimes in safety problems. Degradation mechanisms are often driven by fundamentals such as chemical and electrochemical reactions at electrode–electrolyte interfaces, volume expansion and stress associated with ion insertion and extraction, and profound inhomogeneity of electrochemical behavior. Although it is important to identify and understand these mechanisms at some reasonable level, it is even more critical to design strategies to mitigate these degradation pathways and to develop means to implement and validate the strategies. A growing set of research highlights the mitigation benefits achievable by forming thin protection layers (PLs) intentionally created as artificial interphase regions at the electrode–electrolyte interface. These advances highlight a promising—perhaps even generic—pathway for enabling higher-energy and higher-voltage battery configurations. In this Account, we summarize examples of such PLs that serve as mitigation strategies to avoid degradation in lithium metal anodes, conversion-type electrode materials, and alloy-type electrodes. Examples are chosen from a larger body of electrochemical degradation research carried out in Nanostructures for Electrical Energy Storage (NEES), our DOE Energy Frontier Research Center. Overall, we argue on the basis of experimental and theoretical evidence that PLs effectively stabilize the electrochemical interfaces to prevent parasitic chemical and electrochemical reactions and mitigate the structural, mechanical, and compositional degradation of the electrode materials at the electrode–electrolyte interfaces. The evidenced improvement in performance metrics is accomplished by (1) establishing a homogeneous interface for ion insertion and extraction, (2) providing mechanical constraints to maintain structural integrity and robust electronic and ionic conduction pathways, and (3) introducing spatial confinements on the electrode material matrix to alter the phase transformation (delaying the occurrence of the conversion reaction) upon Li insertion, which results in superior electrode performance, excellent capacity retention, and improved reversibility. Taken together, these examples portray a valuable role for thin protection layers synthesized over electrode surfaces, both for their benefit to cycle stability and for revealing insights into degradation and mitigation mechanisms. Furthermore, they underscore the impact of complex electrochemical behavior at nanoscale materials and nanostructure interfaces in modulating the behavior of energy storage devices at the mesoscale and macroscale.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

General Equilibrium Analysis of the Cobenefits and Trade-Offs of Carbon Mitigation on Local Industrial Water Use and Pollutants Discharge in China

Carbon mitigation strategies have been developed without sufficient consideration of their impacts on the water system. Here, our study evaluates whether carbon mitigation strategies would decrease or increase local industrial water use and water-related pollutants discharge by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model coupled with a water withdrawals and pollutants discharge module in Shenzhen, the fourth largest city in China. To fulfill China’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets, Shenzhen’s GDP and welfare losses are projected to be 1.6% and 5.6% in 2030, respectively. The carbon abatement cost will increase from 56 USD/t CO2 in 2020 to 274 USD/t CO2 in 2030. The results reveal that carbon mitigation accelerates local industrial structure upgrading by restricting carbon-, energy-, and water-intensive industries, e.g., natural gas mining, nonmetal, agriculture, food production, and textile sectors. Accordingly, carbon mitigation improves energy use efficiency and decreases 55% of primary energy use in 2030. Meanwhile, it reduces 4% of total industrial water use and 2.2–2.4% of two major pollutants discharge, i.e., CODCr and NH3–N. Carbon mitigation can also decrease petroleum (2.2%) and V-ArOH (0.8%) discharge but has negative impacts on most heavy metal(loid)s pollutants discharge (increased by -0.01% to 4.6%). These negative impacts are evaluated to be negligible on the environment. This study highlights the importance of considering the energy–water nexus for better-coordinated energy and water resources management at local and national levels.

Su, Qiong↗

Enhanced sensitivity to target offset when using cross-beam energy transfer mitigation techniques in direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions

In direct-drive inertial confinement fusion, target offset from the target chamber center (or center of beam convergence) may lead to significant implosion asymmetry and fusion yield degradation. In addition, cross-beam energy transfer (CBET) has been shown to be a significant source of laser energy scattering and leads to a reduction in implosion velocity and yield. To improve energy coupling and implosion performance, several techniques for CBET mitigation have been proposed. Recent simulations, however, have shown that CBET also substantially mitigates the effect of target offset on implosion asymmetry and yield [Anderson et al., Phys. Plasmas 27, 112713 (2020)]. Furthermore, the inclusion of CBET models in radiation-hydrodynamics codes was shown to greatly improve agreement between simulations and experiments involving substantial target offset distances. This paper explores the intensity dependence of this CBET–offset effect. In addition, it is shown that enhanced sensitivity to target offset can be expected when CBET-mitigation techniques are used in direct-drive implosions. This is shown through simulations of two such CBET-mitigation techniques on the OMEGA laser: (1) decreased beam-to-target radius, and (2) beam-to-beam frequency detuning. For the typical target offset distances (<15 μm) observed in experiments on OMEGA, however, overall yield is still anticipated to be substantially higher when CBET-mitigation techniques are employed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Nonlinear modeling of ELM mitigation with RMP on HL-2A

Abstract Nonlinear modeling of mitigation of the edge localized mode (ELM) with resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) is performed for the HL-2A tokamak, utilizing the three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic code JOREK. Based on the 3D equilibrium established after application of the n = 1 ( n is the toroidal mode number) RMP at 4.9 kAt coil current with odd parity, ELM mitigation is successfully simulated consistent with the experimental result. Nonlinear simulations show strong mode coupling among toroidal Fourier harmonics, allowing redistribution of the magnetic energy such that the most unstable toroidal mode saturates at a lower level. This magnetic energy cascade offers an explanation of the RMP-induced ELM mitigation achieved in HL-2A. Detailed examination of the simulation results shows persistent resonant field screening even during the ELM mitigation phase. Finite plasma resistivity however does enable partial penetration of the resonant field thus modifying the edge magnetic topology and characteristics of the edge transport. Plasma radial profiles undergo pronounced changes around the pedestal region, when the magnetic energy of the most unstable toroidal mode reaches the maximum value. Systematic scans of the applied RMP coil current with the JOREK simulations find a threshold value of around 4.5 kAt required for achieving the ELM mitigation on HL-2A.

Physics↗

Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050

Policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring ancillary benefits of improved air quality and reduced premature mortality, in addition to slowing climate change. Here we study the co-benefits of global and domestic GHG mitigation on US air quality and human health in 2050 at fine resolution using dynamical downscaling, and quantify for the first time the co-benefits from foreign GHG mitigation. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG reductions in RCP4.5 avoid 16000 PM2.5-related all-cause deaths yr-1 (90% confidence interval, 11700-20300), and 8000 (3600-12400) O3-related respiratory deaths yr-1 in the US in 2050. Foreign GHG mitigation avoids 15% and 62% of PM2.5- and O3-related total avoided deaths, highlighting the importance of foreign GHG mitigation on US human health benefits. GHG mitigation in the US residential sector brings the largest co-benefits for PM2.5-related deaths (21% of total domestic co-benefits), and industry for O3 (17%). Monetized benefits, for avoided deaths from ozone, PM2.5, and heat stress from a related study, are $148 ($96-201) per ton CO2 at high valuation and $49 ($32-67) at low valuation, of which 36% are from foreign GHG reductions. These benefits likely exceed the marginal cost of GHG reductions in 2050. The US gains significantly greater co-benefits when coordinating GHG reductions with foreign countries. Similarly, previous studies estimating co-benefits locally or regionally may greatly underestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.

Zhang, Yuqiang (ORCID:0000000291617086)↗

Security Vulnerability and Mitigation in Photovoltaic Systems

Software and firmware vulnerabilities pose security threats to photovoltaic (PV) systems. When patches are not available or cannot be timely applied to fix vulnerabilities, it is important to mitigate vulnerabilities such that they cannot be exploited by attackers or their impacts will be limited when exploited. However, the vulnerability mitigation problem for PV systems has received little attention. This paper analyzes known security vulnerabilities in PV systems, proposes a multi-level mitigation framework and various mitigation strategies including neural network-based attack detection inside inverters, and develops a prototype system as a proof-of-concept for building vulnerability mitigation into PV system design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability

Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of biomass for bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We review the literature on bioenergy, including the modelling of bioenergy in integrated assessment models (IAMs) and bottom-up modelling and non-modelling studies on the implications of bioenergy use. We summarise the limitations of existing modelling studies and what is known about the potential co-benefits and adverse side-effects of bioenergy systems. We find that the implications of bioenergy supply on mitigation and other sustainability criteria are context dependent and influenced by feedstock, management regime, climatic region, scale of deployment and the counterfactual land use and energy system. However, due to limitations of the existing models, and uncertainty over the future context with respect to the many variables that influence availability of biomass and land resources, it is not possible to precisely quantify the sustainability implications for different scales of bioenergy implementation. Given these uncertainties, the dependence on large-scale deployment of bioenergy in mitigation scenarios carries risks. The deployment of bioenergy technologies and the evolution of biomass supply chains at a scale that achieves significant mitigation and carbon sequestration requires integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms. As a result, bioenergy, and the use of land to produce biomass, is an essential part of many climate mitigation strategies but there are limits to its use due to trade-offs with sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Update on Investigations of Viability of Cold Spray and FSW as a Spent Nuclear Fuel Dry Storage Canister Mitigation Tool

The purpose of this work is to investigate the use of cold spray and friction stir welding or processing (FSW/P) for repair and mitigation of chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC) in dry cask storage system (DCSS) canisters to ensure integrity far beyond their original license period. This report provides a viability analysis of cold spray and friction stir welding for repair and fabrication of DCSS canisters. This report presents experimental work and a research strategy to optimize and evaluate cold spray and FSW/P for CISCC resistance. The literature reports that the following three conditions must exist for CISCC to occur: tensile stress, corrosive environment, and susceptible material. These conditions must be understood and accounted for while evaluating CISCC susceptibility. Furthermore, non-obvious factors, such as surface conditions and geometric confinement, can dramatically increase the intensity of one or more of the three listed conditions for CISCC. Arc welding should be considered for either temporary or permanent repair when combined with a mitigation technology. It is known that alloys used in the existing inventory of spent nuclear fuel storage canisters become sensitized in areas around fusion welds. Technologies, such as cold spray or FSW, can mitigate the sensitization caused by fusion welds. FSW/P and cold spray, potential alternatives for fabrication and repair, are solid-phase processes. No melting occurs and the energy input can be controlled such that no harm is done to the base metal during these processes. FSW/P should be considered for use in new fabrication of canisters and repair of existing canisters. Low heat input and grain refinement result in material with improved mechanical properties and comparable generalized corrosion performance relative to base metal. FSW/P offers the potential of through-thickness CISCC resistance. Cold spray should be considered for production, mitigation, and repair of canisters. Cold spray has demonstrated the ability to deposit stainless steel, Inconel alloys, and other alloys on stainless steel 304L such that galvanic potential is matched and resistance to pitting is improved. The technical basis for cold spray mitigation and repair within the overpack using remote robotic equipment is established. A non-obvious application to the research community is the sealing of crevices. All reported instances of CISCC in the fielded nuclear applications were associated with crevice corrosion. This can be avoided by cold spraying to seal crevices. The bulk of the work planned for FY 2020 will be generating coupons for CISCC testing by collaborative projects at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. First an exploratory study will be executed that will include screening studies and process optimization. This task will identify the effect of process parameters on microstructure and CISCC resistance. Optimized parameters will be used to produce a smaller number of coupons for full testing and evaluation. Test methods for evaluating CISCC resistance must meet the following criteria: (1) normalized surface geometry and exposed process microstructure, (2) account for residual stresses, (3) be in a controlled and appropriate test environment, and (4) be numerically quantifiable and repeatable. Failure to meet these criteria could lead to results that cannot be used for comparative analysis of processes and materials.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Numerical Simulations of Geologic Storage Reservoir Management to Support Risk Mitigation Evaluation

This report provides a detailed description of a set of numerical simulations that represent reservoir behavior over time in response to different operational decision scenarios for detection of potential leakage and reduction or avoidance of leakage impact at a hypothetical geological carbon storage (GCS) site. These simulations serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), and a demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for evaluation of mitigation strategies based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming. Four injection scenarios were considered: a constant rate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection case (base case), a case with CO 2 injection rate adjustment, a case with early termination of injection operations, and a case with brine extraction. CO 2 injection operations were controlled to ensure that the pressure transient remains below the defined manageable reservoir fracture pressure, with consideration shown to hypothetical locations within the modeled spatial domain where the overburden was weaker and lower transient pressure increases were allowable. Additionally, a brine extraction alternative was considered as a reservoir management and risk mitigation option to reduce reservoir pressure, steer the plume away from any hypothetical geohazard such as fault as needed, and enhance storage capacity. Such operational actions contribute to risk management overtime. This study explores the potential utility of reservoir management for risk reduction at GCS sites. This study shows that the injection design may modify the time to CO 2 breakthrough at a legacy well; in particular, these results show that brine extraction can add value for mitigating risk both by delaying leakage and reducing pressure build-up. For the scenario considered, both pressure plots and pressure distributions demonstrate that pressure build-up was decreased by 3% with brine extraction. Additionally, extraction of brine afforded enhancement of CO 2 storage capacity by 5% compared to the base case. These findings suggest that brine extraction has substantial potential to steer the risk-related reservoir effects away from known geohazards (e.g., faults and legacy wells) by conducting pressure transient effects and CO 2 plume movement toward the production well. Injection rate adjustment scenarios considered in this study show potential value for managing both reservoir pressure transients and CO 2 plume behavior. Operational actions for reducing injection and/or early termination of injection (as compared to the base case), however, require careful design; tailoring both the extent and timing of injection rate adjustment over the injection and post-injection operational period must be thoroughly planned to balance maximizing storage and minimizing subsurface environmental risk. The study also gives preliminary consideration to the effectiveness that monitoring strategy may play in providing useful information to inform reservoir management decisions for risk reduction. Two types of monitoring were considered: 1) pressure build-up or pressure transient; and 2) potential leakage detection from a CO 2 mass or plume. Four hypothetical legacy wells, two plugged and two abandoned, were placed in the model domain. Monitoring along these wells was measured over time in individual stacked reservoir formations and shale formations to support risk mitigation decisions, especially operational decisions that assisted in risk reduction. These simulations will serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using NRAP’s Open-IAM, and demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for comparative assessment of mitigation alternatives based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Best Practices for Timing Attack Mitigation

GPS signals play essential roles in the electric subsector by providing precision timing used to synchronize and record measurements from a range of equipment. However, previous research has demonstrated that GPS signals can be spoofed or jammed relatively easily in order to interfere with timing-reliant equipment. This document outlines utility best practices for mitigating against timing attacks in the electric subsector based on an assessment of the difficulty and impact of realistic timing attacks and testing of the effectiveness of technologies capable of mitigating them. This analysis builds on research establishing the vulnerability of GPS-reliant timing equipment to jamming and spoofing by elaborating the difficulty, consequences, and mitigations for timing attacks that adversaries might realistically attempt. While timing attacks are relatively low-cost, low-sophistication, and capable of systemic consequences in the electric subsector, they can be effectively mitigated through well-targeted and diverse mitigations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗