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At least 127 records · Page 7

Miscalculation, Misperception and Risk Reduction

In the current security environment, the most likely wars for which the US and its allies must be prepared are wars against nuclear-armed states. Such wars bring unique risks of both vertical and horizontal escalation. Some are “accepted risks;” for example, the US may choose to escalate a conflict to clarify its commitment to an issue and defend its interest. Other are “unacceptable risks;” especially, the risk of miscalculation by the U.S. or an adversary. The focus here is on this latter category. Miscalculation is an error of judgment—the failure to accurately assess a situation. Miscalculation can result from hidden, incomplete, or ambiguous information, or from inaccurate processing of available information because of bias, overconfidence, denial, delusion, etc. Miscalculation is related to misperception. For some, they are synonymous. This paper characterizes the risks of miscalculation and introduces a discussion of a risk mitigation strategy.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

High Explosive Testing Capabilities at Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) [Slides]

LANL is a non-profit Federally Funded Research & Development Center (FFRDC). LANL’s Integrated Weapons Experiments (J) Division addresses national security challenges by executing largescale, integrated, focused experiments, and tests of engineered devices and systems. J-NV plans, fields, and executes dynamic high explosive experiments at NNSS. This includes sub-critical experiments involving special nuclear material, as well as small- and largescale non-nuclear experiments. J-NV generates, analyzes, and disseminates unique, high-quality data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Energetic Materials

Energetic materials comprise explosives, pyrotechnics, and propellants. The science of energetic materials is dedicated to developing a means to predict performance and safety characteristics with high fidelity. This is a particular challenge and is predicated on materials science and engineering, physics, chemistry, and dynamic response in extreme conditions. Fundamental elements of these complicated composite materials remain grand challenges—from the design of high-energy metastable molecules, to the engineering of composite formulations, to the processing parameters that link to safety and performance characteristics in as-yet undetermined ways. Key elements include crystalline mechanics, grain dynamics, multiphase interfaces, thermal and mechanical damage, and failure—all linked to multistep and high-rate chemistry and shock physics. A future revolution in our understanding and predictive capability for energetic materials behavior and responses is dependent upon sustained focus and advances in materials research and development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comprehensive Technology Readiness Assessment Report for LL20-ML-AIT-NE-1-PD3TB

This document ensures that technologies relevant to LL20-ML-AIT-NE-1-PD3TB “AIT-NEO” have been demonstrated to work as intended and at the appropriate technology readiness level. This assessment is intended to offer management tools for understanding and mitigating programmatic risks associated with new technologies being developed under the AIT-NEO effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

History of and Aftermath from the Withdrawal of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

On February 1, 2019, the United States and Russia withdrew from the three-decades old Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. Events precipitating the withdrawal were allegations by both the United States and Russia of a variety of treaty violations. Until that point, the treaty had been a centerpiece of arms control and a key agreement of the global security architecture. The absence of such a pillar has the potential destabilize the status quo of arms control, creating significant uncertainty in global nuclear stability and security. In this paper, we present a historical review as overture to an analysis on the impacts of this development on force structure. This analysis examines the changes in U.S., Russian, and Chinese nuclear forces which may occur as a result of the treaty's demise. The article concludes with commentary on potential actions to preserve stability in a post-INF world.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment

The National Science Foundation provided Antarctic logistical support to the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility from October 2015 through May 2017. Specific support included commercial and military cargo transportation, site preparation and facilities installation at McMurdo Station and at the WAIS Divide field camp in West Antarctica, power and data transmission, and personnel support. NSF provided continuous facility operation in McMurdo from November 2015 through decommissioning in January 2017, and at WAIS Divide during the 2015-2016 austral summer research season, from November 2015 through January 2016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space Strategy at a Crossroads: Opportunities and Challenges for 21st Century Competition

In its November 2018 report to Congress, the bipartisan National Defense Strategy Commission applauded the main themes of the Trump administration’s 2017 National Defense Strategy. But it was also deeply critical of the strategic thought so far done by the U.S. defense community about the requirements, operational and otherwise, of securing U.S. and allied interests in the types of conflicts we now face. Indeed, it assessed these shortfalls as crippling to the exercise of American power and as dangerous in crisis and war. Is the U.S. military space community exempt from such criticism? Should it be?

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Performance Comparison of Object Detection Networks for Shrapnel Identification in Ultrasound Images

Ultrasound imaging is a critical tool for triaging and diagnosing subjects but only if images can be properly interpreted. Unfortunately, in remote or military medicine situations, the expertise to interpret images can be lacking. Machine-learning image interpretation models that are explainable to the end user and deployable in real time with ultrasound equipment have the potential to solve this problem. We have previously shown how a YOLOv3 (You Only Look Once) object detection algorithm can be used for tracking shrapnel, artery, vein, and nerve fiber bundle features in a tissue phantom. However, real-time implementation of an object detection model requires optimizing model inference time. Here, we compare the performance of five different object detection deep-learning models with varying architectures and trainable parameters to determine which model is most suitable for this shrapnel-tracking ultrasound image application. We used a dataset of more than 16,000 ultrasound images from gelatin tissue phantoms containing artery, vein, nerve fiber, and shrapnel features for training and evaluating each model. Every object detection model surpassed 0.85 mean average precision except for the detection transformer model. Overall, the YOLOv7tiny model had the higher mean average precision and quickest inference time, making it the obvious model choice for this ultrasound imaging application. Other object detection models were overfitting the data as was determined by lower testing performance compared with higher training performance. In summary, the YOLOv7tiny object detection model had the best mean average precision and inference time and was selected as optimal for this application. Next steps will implement this object detection algorithm for real-time applications, an important next step in translating AI models for emergency and military medicine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Eight Levers of Coercive Conflict: No More, No Less

Few concepts are more important to our nation than the principle of deterrence. It is at the very core of our national security strategy. Despite its lasting import to our nation, and the rest of the world, we still lack a complete and explicit formulation of the calculus of deterrence. This has, at times, resulted in failed policies costing the Nation lives and wealth. With the ultimate objective of making the Nation more secure, we establish a complete and explicit formulation of deterrence calculus, which consists of eight levers. As it turns out this formulation also applies to the calculus of compellence, and is thus a unifying model of coercive conflict.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

On Theories of Change: Rethinking the Ban Treaty and Disarmament Strategies

A week before Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi had lunch with the Financial Times. In the interview, Grossi expressed both optimism and pessimism about the nuclear landscape: he was hopeful about prospects for diplomacy, including with Iran. But he also expressed longer-term concerns about a proliferation cascade and rising nuclear risks, in particular, Russia’s nuclear threats amidst the war in Ukraine. “In the past, this was quite taboo,” he said, “but now people talk about tactical nuclear weapons like something which could be contained or permissible.” Given subsequent events in Iran, along with the expiration of New START in 2026 and expanding nuclear arsenals in Russia and China, pessimism would seem to trump hope for prospects for nuclear disarmament.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Nuclear Weapons Theater Experience_V1

The theater experience is driven by the big message of nuclear deterrence through successful stockpile stewardship. This job enables other national and global security work with roots going back to the capabilities developed during the Manhattan Project and honed through the history of this successor scientific laboratory. The story that unfolds uses a narrative (traditional film-type approach), although the theater setup would offer immersion and decision-making (audience participation). The idea is to demonstrate how and why the Laboratory continues its mission in maintaining the nation’s stockpile while concurrently enabling the ever-evolving multi-disciplinary science and technology innovations developed for that purpose to take other scientists along vibrant paths.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Power of Invention: National Security Science and Beyond at Los Alamos National Laboratory

According to Webster, a genius is someone who possesses uncommon powers of intellect, particularly the power of invention. Those who call Los Alamos National Laboratory their professional home have a tremendous power of invention — their genius benefits from atomic power. Nuclear weapons are the heart of the Laboratory’s origin story. It is why we are here. They are also central to the multiple innovations inspired and driven by such atomic work — in ways that might surprise you. Our search for solutions outside the realm of nuclear security is nevertheless built on the incredible innovations and challenges driven by a defining moment in our world’s history — the advent of the nuclear weapon.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Evaluating the Long-Term Ecological Responses to Riparian Ecosystem Restoration at the Fort Benning, Georgia Military Installation

Riparian and instream restorations are commonly implemented to improve ecosystem condition. However, very few restoration activities are monitored for multiple years to assess long-term effectiveness. At the Department of Defense’s Fort Benning Military Installation (FBMI) in west-central Georgia, two experimental restoration projects (ephemeral drainage revitalization and instream habitat augmentation [i.e., coarse woody debris (CWD) additions]) were implemented ~14 years ago with the goal of reducing environmental impacts of military training activities. A SERDP project found that instream restoration improved some aspects of ecosystem function and community structure but not others. The objective of the current study was to re-evaluate the effect of these restoration practices on stream ecosystem processes ~14 years after implementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive Physical Activity Assessment During U.S. Army Basic Combat Training

Abstract Alemany, JA, Pierce, JR, Bornstein, DB, Grier, TL, Jones, BH, and Glover, SH. Comprehensive physical activity assessment during U.S. Army Basic Combat Training. J Strength Cond Res 36(12): 3505–3512, 2022—Physical activity (PA) volume, intensity, and qualitative contextual information regarding activity type and loads carried are limited during U.S. Army Basic Combat Training (BCT). The purpose of this study was to characterize daily (05:00–20:00 hours) PA during BCT using a comprehensive approach. During 2 10-week BCT cycles ( n = 40 trainees per cycle), pedometers, accelerometers, and direct observation were used to estimate daily step count, PA volume, and intensity. Physical activity intensity was categorized by metabolic equivalents (METs) such as “sedentary” (1–2 METs), “light” (2–3 METs), “moderate” (3–6 METs), or “vigorous” (≥6 METs). Daily PA data were analyzed longitudinally using linear mixed models, with significance set at p ≤ 0.05. The mean daily step count was 13,459 ± 4,376 steps, and the mean daily accelerometer-assessed PA volume and intensity were as follows: sedentary: 505 ± 98 minutes, light: 190 ± 78 minutes, moderate: 168 ± 51 minutes, and vigorous: 14 ± 14 minutes, with no differences between cycles for all measures ( p > 0.50). Cumulative time on feet (∼50%) and sitting (20–25%) accounted for most daily activity types during both cycles. Trainees, on average, carried between 3 and 9 kg, and ≥9 kg, for 60% and 10% of the monitored day, respectively. Basic Combat Training's physical demands are high, where trainees achieved 1.7 to 2.7 times greater daily ambulation and 6 times the recommended weekly moderate-to-vigorous PA compared with civilian counterparts and performed weight-bearing load carriage for nearly half of the day. Basic Combat Training-associated PA may increase injury risk among trainees unaccustomed to arduous PA and exercise. Implementing national PA policies to improve physical fitness and facilitate acclimatization to BCT's high physical demands could reduce public health burdens and military nonreadiness.

Sport Sciences↗

Testbeds for test Readiness: Strategic Snapshot

Test bed engineering, monitoring for underground explosive and nuclear testing will be needed if the United States returns to a test posture of nuclear device testing. To maintain and rebuild the capability of test readiness, agile cost-effective test beds are needed and LANL as well as NNSS are the perfect locations to do this. Shallow and deep boreholes should be created to research containment science, diagnostic placement and optimization, coupling and emplacement science, tracer use for fracture and cratering research, and validation of test article performance.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗