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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing earth system model calibration: a diffusion-based method

Understanding of climate impact on ecosystems globally requires site-specific model calibration. Here we introduce a novel diffusion-based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method for efficient model calibration. DBUQ is a score-based diffusion model that leverages Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the score function and evaluates a simple neural network to quickly generate samples for approximating parameter posterior distributions. DBUQ is stable, efficient, and can effectively calibrate the model given diverse observations, thereby enabling rapid and site-specific model calibration on a global scale. This capability significantly advances Earth system modeling and our understanding of climate impacts on Earth systems. We demonstrate DBUQ's capability in E3SM land model calibration at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Both synthetic and real-data applications indicate that DBUQ produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those generated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30X less computing time. This efficiency marks a significant stride in model calibration, paving the way for more effective and timely climate impact analyses.

Liu, Yanfang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Exploration of Phenomenological EoS of Neutron/Hybrid Stars with Recent Observations

The description of the stellar interior of compact stars remains as a big challenge for the nuclear astrophysics community. The consolidated knowledge is restricted to density regions around the saturation of hadronic matter ρ 0 =2.8 × 10 14 g cm -3 , regimes where our nuclear models are successfully applied. As one moves towards higher densities and extreme conditions up to the quark/gluons deconfinement, little can be said about the microphysics of the equation of state (EoS). Here, we employ a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) strategy to access the variability at high density regions of polytropic piecewise models for neutron star (NS) EoS or possible hybrid stars, i.e., a NS with a small quark-matter core. With a fixed description of the hadronic matter for low density, below the nuclear saturation density, we explore a variety of models for the high density regimes leading to stellar masses near to 2.5 M ⊙ , in accordance with the observations of massive pulsars. The models are constrained, including the observation of the merger of neutrons stars from VIRGO-LIGO and with the pulsar observed by NICER. In addition, we also discuss the possibility of the use of a Bayesian power regression model with heteroscedastic error. The set of EoS from the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) was used as input and treated as the data set for the testing case.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

First measurement in a magnetic confinement fusion experiment of the H 3 + H 3 → He 5 + n intermediate two-body resonant reaction

We report on the first experimental measurements made at a magnetic confinement fusion device of the tritium(T)-tritium(T) reaction T + T → He 4 + 2 n indicating the presence of the intermediate two-body resonant reaction T + T → He 5 + n . During the second deuterium-tritium campaign (DTE2) at the Joint European Torus, measurements of fusion plasmas with high tritium concentrations, n T / ( n T + n D ) ≈ 0.99 , heated with tritium neutral beam injection, were performed using the neutron time-of-flight (TOF) spectrometer TOFOR. We detect a peak in the neutron emission TOF spectrum consistent with the two-body resonant reaction. The TT neutron emission energy spectrum is modeled using an R -matrix framework where the distributions of the most likely model parameters given our experimental TOF data are determined utilizing a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. We compare our best estimate of the T + T neutron emission energy spectrum with results obtained at inertial confinement fusion experiments at the OMEGA facility and find a spectral shape that is consistent with the energy dependency in the neutron spectrum observed at OMEGA. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Planck constraints and gravitational wave forecasts for primordial black hole dark matter seeded by multifield inflation

Here, we perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of a simple yet generic multifield inflation model characterized by two scalar fields coupled to each other and nonminimally coupled to gravity, fit to Planck 2018 cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. In particular, model parameters are constrained by data on the amplitude of the primordial power spectrum of scalar curvature perturbations on CMB scales A s , the spectral index n s , and the ratio of power in tensor to scalar modes r, with a prior that the primordial power spectrum should also lead to primordial black hole (PBH) production sufficient to account for the observed dark matter abundance. We find that n s in particular controls the constraints on our model. Whereas previous studies of PBH formation from an ultraslow-roll phase of inflation have highlighted the need for at least one model parameter to be highly fine-tuned, we identify a degeneracy direction in parameter space such that shifts by ~10% of one parameter can be compensated by comparable shifts in other parameters while preserving a close fit between model predictions and observations. Furthermore, we find this allowed parameter region produces observable gravitational wave signals in the frequency ranges to which upcoming experiments are projected to be sensitive, including Advanced LIGO and Virgo, the Einstein Telescope, Cosmic Explorer, DECIGO, and LISA.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of a midband gravitational wave experiment on detectability of cosmological stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds

In this report we make forecasts for the impact a future “midband” space-based gravitational wave experiment, most sensitive to 10 -2 - 10Hz,could have on potential detections of cosmological stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds (SGWBs). Specific proposed midband experiments considered are TianGo, B-DECIGO, and AEDGE. We propose a combined power-law integrated sensitivity (CPLS) curve combining GW experiments over different frequency bands, which shows the midband improves sensitivity to SGWBs by up to two orders of magnitude at 10 -2 - 10 Hz . We consider GW emission from cosmic strings and phase transitions as benchmark examples of cosmological SGWBs. We explicitly model various astrophysical SGWB sources, most importantly from unresolved black hole mergers. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, we demonstrated that midband experiments can, when combined with LIGO A+ and LISA, significantly improve sensitivities to cosmological SGWBs and better separate them from astrophysical SGWBs. In particular, we forecast that a midband experiment improves sensitivity to cosmic string tension G μ by up to a factor of 10, driven by improved component separation from astrophysical sources. For phase transitions, a midband experiment can detect signals peaking at 0.1–1 Hz, which for our fiducial model corresponds to early Universe temperatures of T * ~10 4 – 10 6 GeV , generally beyond the reach of LIGO and LISA. The midband closes an energy gap and better captures characteristic spectral shape information. It thus substantially improves measurement of the properties of phase transitions at lower energies of T * ~ O(10 3 ) GeV , potentially relevant to new physics at the electroweak scale, whereas in this energy range LISA alone will detect an excess but not effectively measure the phase transition parameters. Our modeling code and chains are publicly available.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing rotational bands in odd-mass nuclei using effective field theory and Bayesian methods

We recently developed an Effective Field Theory (EFT) for rotational bands in odd-mass nuclei. Here we use EFT expressions to perform a Bayesian analysis of data on the rotational energy levels of 99 Tc, 155,157 Gd, 159 Dy, 167,169 Er, 167,169 Tm, 183 W, 235 U and 239 Pu. The error model in our Bayesian analysis includes both experimental and EFT truncation uncertainties. It also accounts for the fact that low-energy constants (LECs) at even and odd orders are expected to have different sizes. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to explore the joint posterior of the EFT and error-model parameters and show both the LECs and the breakdown scale can be reliably determined. We extract the LECs up to fourth order in the EFT and find that, provided we correctly account for EFT truncation errors in our likelihood, results for lower-order LECs are stable as we go to higher orders. LEC results are also stable with respect to the addition of higher-energy data. We extract the expansion parameter for all the nuclei listed above and find a clear correlation between the extracted and the expected value of the inverse breakdown scale, W, based on the single-particle and vibrational energy scales. However, the W that actually determines the convergence of the EFT expansion is markedly smaller than would be naively expected based on those scales.

EFT↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

hIPPYlib-MUQ: A Bayesian Inference Software Framework for Integration of Data with Complex Predictive Models under Uncertainty

Bayesian inference provides a systematic framework for integration of data with mathematical models to quantify the uncertainty in the solution of the inverse problem. However, the solution of Bayesian inverse problems governed by complex forward models described by partial differential equations (PDEs) remains prohibitive with black-box Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We present hIPPYlib-MUQ, an extensible and scalable software framework that contains implementations of state-of-the art algorithms aimed to overcome the challenges of high-dimensional, PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. These algorithms accelerate MCMC sampling by exploiting the geometry and intrinsic low-dimensionality of parameter space via derivative information and low rank approximation. The software integrates two complementary open-source software packages, hIPPYlib and MUQ. hIPPYlib solves PDE-constrained inverse problems using automatically-generated adjoint-based derivatives, but it lacks full Bayesian capabilities. MUQ provides a spectrum of powerful Bayesian inversion models and algorithms, but expects forward models to come equipped with gradients and Hessians to permit large-scale solution. By combining these two complementary libraries, we created a robust, scalable, and efficient software framework that realizes the benefits of each and allows us to tackle complex large-scale Bayesian inverse problems across a broad spectrum of scientific and engineering disciplines. To illustrate the capabilities of hIPPYlib-MUQ, we present a comparison of a number of MCMC methods available in the integrated software on several high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. These include problems characterized by both linear and nonlinear PDEs, various noise models, and different parameter dimensions. The results demonstrate that large (~ 50×) speedups over conventional black box and gradient-based MCMC algorithms can be obtained by exploiting Hessian information (from the log-posterior), underscoring the power of the integrated hIPPYlib-MUQ framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Commuter preferences for a first-mile/last-mile microtransit service in the United States

Transportation system models rely heavily upon value of time (VOT) estimates to predict customer behavior. Accurate VOT estimates are particularly vital for planning new services such as on-demand ride hailing or microtransit because customers’ sensitivity to wait time, walk time, and route detour time affects their likelihood of selecting these modes. If an incorrect VOT is assumed during service planning, then ridership will be depressed because of a mismatch between their preferences and how the system is designed. In this paper, we report on the measurement of VOT for microtransit, a shared first-mile/last-mile mobility service, obtained using stated preference microdata from four U.S. cities. Here, we found a median in-vehicle VOT for microtransit of $\$$18.63 (95% CI: $\$$13.39–$\$$24.46) and an access VOT of $\$$75.38 (95% CI: $\$$59.22–$\$$94.96). The former is practically equal to the VOT we found for respondents’ current modes ($\$$20.24, 95% CI: $\$$13.71–$\$$26.94). We also found that men, younger riders, the highly educated, and transit riders are more likely to be interested in microtransit. Since the disutility of time spent on microtransit is not higher than that of other modes, we believe this new service has the potential to attract riders, and particularly if the system is designed with low waiting and walking times.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Bayesian model for multivariate discrete data using spatial and expert information with application to inferring building attributes

When modeling sparsely observed multivariate data, strong prior information elicited from experts can be used to bolster predictive accuracy and counteract sampling bias. Similarly, modeling autocorrelation in space can help make use of co-occurrence patterns present in many types of spatial data. To make use of both expert prior information and spatial structure, we propose a novel graphical model for a spatial Bayesian network developed specifically to address challenges in inferring the attributes of buildings from geographically sparse observational data. This model is implemented as the sum of a spatial multivariate Gaussian random field and a tabular conditional probability function in real-valued space prior to projection onto the probability simplex. This modeling form is especially suitable for the usage of prior information in the form of sets of atomic rules obtained from experts. To perform inference with missing data, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme composed of alternating steps of Gibbs sampling of missing entries and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for model parameters. A case study in building attribution is presented to highlight the advantages and limitations of this approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sparsifying priors for Bayesian uncertainty quantification in model discovery

We propose a probabilistic model discovery method for identifying ordinary differential equations governing the dynamics of observed multivariate data. Our method is based on the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) framework, where models are expressed as sparse linear combinations of pre-specified candidate functions. Promoting parsimony through sparsity leads to interpretable models that generalize to unknown data. Instead of targeting point estimates of the SINDy coefficients, we estimate these coefficients via sparse Bayesian inference. The resulting method, uncertainty quantification SINDy (UQ-SINDy), quantifies not only the uncertainty in the values of the SINDy coefficients due to observation errors and limited data, but also the probability of inclusion of each candidate function in the linear combination. UQ-SINDy promotes robustness against observation noise and limited data, interpretability (in terms of model selection and inclusion probabilities) and generalization capacity for out-of-sample forecast. Sparse inference for UQ-SINDy employs Markov chain Monte Carlo, and we explore two sparsifying priors: the spike and slab prior, and the regularized horseshoe prior. UQ-SINDy is shown to discover accurate models in the presence of noise and with orders-of-magnitude less data than current model discovery methods, thus providing a transformative method for real-world applications which have limited data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multimodal parameter spaces of a complex multi-channel neuron model

One of the most common types of models that helps us to understand neuron behavior is based on the Hodgkin–Huxley ion channel formulation (HH model). A major challenge with inferring parameters in HH models is non-uniqueness: many different sets of ion channel parameter values produce similar outputs for the same input stimulus. Such phenomena result in an objective function that exhibits multiple modes (i.e., multiple local minima). This non-uniqueness of local optimality poses challenges for parameter estimation with many algorithmic optimization techniques. HH models additionally have severe non-linearities resulting in further challenges for inferring parameters in an algorithmic fashion. To address these challenges with a tractable method in high-dimensional parameter spaces, we propose using a particular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which has the advantage of inferring parameters in a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian approach is designed to be suitable for multimodal solutions to inverse problems. We introduce and demonstrate the method using a three-channel HH model. We then focus on the inference of nine parameters in an eight-channel HH model, which we analyze in detail. We explore how the MCMC algorithm can uncover complex relationships between inferred parameters using five injected current levels. The MCMC method provides as a result a nine-dimensional posterior distribution, which we analyze visually with solution maps or landscapes of the possible parameter sets. The visualized solution maps show new complex structures of the multimodal posteriors, and they allow for selection of locally and globally optimal value sets, and they visually expose parameter sensitivities and regions of higher model robustness. We envision these solution maps as enabling experimentalists to improve the design of future experiments, increase scientific productivity and improve on model structure and ideation when the MCMC algorithm is applied to experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Note on the Effects of Linear Topology Preservation in Monte Carlo Simulations of Knotted Proteins

Monte Carlo simulations are a powerful technique and are widely used in different fields. When applied to complex molecular systems with long chains, such as those in synthetic polymers and proteins, they have the advantage of providing a fast and computationally efficient way to sample equilibrium ensembles and calculate thermodynamic and structural properties under desired conditions. Conformational Monte Carlo techniques employ a move set to perform the transitions in the simulation Markov chain. While accepted conformations must preserve the sequential bonding of the protein chain model and excluded volume among its units, the moves themselves may take the chain across itself. We call this a break in linear topology preservation. In this manuscript, we show, using simple protein models, that there is no difference in equilibrium properties calculated with a move set that preserves linear topology and one that does not. However, for complex structures, such as those of deeply knotted proteins, the preservation of linear topology provides correct equilibrium results but only after long relaxation. In any case, to analyze folding pathways, knotting mechanisms and folding kinetics, the preservation of linear topology may be an unavoidable requirement.

Especial, João N. C. (ORCID:0000000254765370)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach

Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗