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At least 127 records · Page 7

Aeolian Sediment Transport Pathways and Aerodynamics at Troughs on Mars

Interaction between wind regimes and topography can give rise to complex suites of aeolian landforms. This paper considers aeolian sediment associated wit11 troughs on Mars and identifies a wider range of deposit types than has previously been documented. These include wind streaks, falling dunes, "lateral" dunes, barchan dunes, linear dunes, transverse ridges, sand ramps, climbing dunes, sand streamers, and sand patches. The sediment incorporated into these deposits is supplied by wind streaks and ambient Planitia sources as well as originating within the trough itself, notably from the trough walls and floor. There is also transmission of sediment between d~~neTsh. e flow dynamics which account for the distribution of aeolian sediment have been modeled using two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics. The model predicts flow separation on the upwind side of the trough followed by reattachment and acceleration at the downwind margin. The inferred patterns of sediment transport compare well with the distribution of aeolian forms. Model data indicate an increase of wind velocity by approx. 30 % at the downwind trough margin. This suggests that the threshold wind speed necessary for sand mobilization on Mars will be more freq~~entmlye t in these inclined locations.

Bourke, Mary C.↗

Stimulated emission of AKR in regions of a weakly unstable electron velocity distribution

While, according to the cyclotron maser theory, auroral kilometric radiation generates auroral zone instability whose consequent radiation is in many respects consistent with observations, in situ velocity distribution measurements by satellites show only moderate positive gradients which would be only marginally unstable, implying a low radiation level. Numerical simulations are conducted alternatively using an observed electron-velocity distribution and an idealized loss-cone distribution. The expected amplification of X-mode radiation, as well as effects which go beyond the behavior of a simple amplifying medium, emerge in the results.

Kainer, S.↗

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Prediction of grain structure after thermomechanical processing of U-10Mo alloy using sensitivity analysis and machine learning surrogate model

Abstract Hot rolling and annealing are critical intermediate steps for controlling microstructures and thickness variations when fabricating uranium alloyed with 10% molybdenum (U-10Mo), which is highly relevant to worldwide nuclear non-proliferation efforts. This work proposes a machine-learning surrogate model combined with sensitivity analysis to identify and predict U-10Mo microstructure development during thermomechanical processing. Over 200 simulations were collected using physics-based microstructure models covering a wide range of thermomechanical processing routes and initial alloy grain features. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we determined that an increase in rolling reduction percentage at each processing pass has the strongest effect in reducing the grain size. Multi-pass rolling and annealing can significantly improve recrystallization regardless of the reduction percentage. With a volume fraction below 2%, uranium carbide particles were found to have marginal effects on the average grain size and distribution. The proposed stratified stacking ensemble surrogate predicts the U-10Mo grain size with a mean square error four times smaller than a standard single deep neural network. At the same time, with a significant speedup (1000×) compared to the physics-based model, the machine learning surrogate shows good potential for U-10Mo fabrication process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Constraining ΛCDM cosmological parameters with Einstein Telescope mock data

ABSTRACT We investigate the capability of Einstein Telescope to constrain the cosmological parameters of the non-flat ΛCDM cosmological model. Two types of mock data sets are considered depending on whether or not a short gamma-ray burst is detected, and associated with the gravitational wave emitted by binary neutron stars merger, using the THESEUS satellite. Depending on the mock data set, two statistical estimators are applied: one assumes that the redshift is known, while the other marginalizes over it assuming a specific redshift prior distribution. We demonstrate that (i) using mock catalogues collecting gravitational wave signals emitted by binary neutron stars systems to which a short gamma-ray burst has been associated, Einstein Telescope may achieve an accuracy on the cosmological parameters of $\sigma _{H_0}\approx 0.40$ km s−1 Mpc−1, $\sigma _{\Omega _{k,0}}\approx 0.09$, and $\sigma _{\Omega _{\Lambda ,0}}\approx 0.07$; while (ii) using mock catalogues collecting all gravitational wave signals emitted by binary neutron stars systems for which an electromagnetic counterpart has not been detected, Einstein Telescope may achieve an accuracy on the cosmological parameters of $\sigma _{H_0}\approx 0.04$ km s−1 Mpc−1, $\sigma _{\Omega _{k,0}}\approx 0.01$, and $\sigma _{\Omega _{\Lambda ,0}}\approx 0.01$, once the redshift probability distribution of GW events is known from from population synthesis simulations and/or the measure of the tidal deformability parameter. These results show an improvement of a factor 2–75 with respect to earlier results using complementary data sets.

Califano, Matteo↗

Structural tailoring using the SSME/STAEBL code

Space Shuttle Main Engine/Structural Tailoring of Engine Blades (SSME/STAEBL) was developed by systematically modifying and enhancing the STAEBL code developed by Pratt and Whitney under contract to NASA Lewis Research Center. STAEBL was designed for application to gas turbine blade design. Typical design variables include blade thickness distribution and root chord. Typical constraints include resonance margins, root stress, and root to chord ratios. In this program, the blade is loaded by centrifugal forces only. Additions and modifications of STAEBL included in SSME/STAEBL include (1) thermal stress analysis; (2) gas dynamic (pressure) loads; (3) temperature dependent material and thermal properties; (4) forced vibrations; (5) tip displacement constraints; (6) single crystal material analysis; (7) blade cross section stacking offsets; and (8) direct time integration algorithm for transient dynamic response. Capabilities are also included which permit data transfer from finite element models and stand-alone analysis.

Rubinstein, Robert↗

Investigate the height dependency of the micro-/defect-structure and mechanical properties of additively manufactured AlF357 aluminum alloy

When the laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing method is employed to build parts with increased heights, there is a possibility that defects are increased in part. This study investigates the effect of build height on the micro-/defect-structure and, consequently, the mechanical properties of L-PBF AlF357, an Al-Si-Mg alloy family. Tall vertical cylinders of 316 mm with 15 mm diameter were fabricated and cut into specimens at different heights. Although not much difference is observed in the microstructure (grain size and morphology), the defects' size and population slightly vary with height. Nonetheless, the tensile properties of the L-PBF AlF357 are found to be independent of height. This is ascribed to the approximately identical microstructure and marginal difference in the defect's size and distribution along the heights.

Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF)↗

Global organization of tectonic deformation on Venus

The geographic organization of surface deformation on Venus as on Earth is a key to understanding the global tectonic system. To date we have mapped the distribution of three unambiguous tectonic land forms on Venus: (1) linear foldbelts analogous to those at plate margins of the Earth; (2) linear rift zones, analogous to continental rifts on the Earth; and (3) distributed plains deformation in the form of wrinkle ridges and extensional faults and fractures. The linear foldbelts are the dominant structural style in the Northern Hemisphere; ninety percent of the planet's foldbelts lie above the equator. In contrast, compressive deformation in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by two large, sweeping patterns of wrinkle ridges. The two hemispheres are divided by an equatorial region that is largely covered by rift zones and several large tessera blocks. A tectonic model of generally poleward convergence of the Northern Hemisphere explains the distribution of foldbelts and rift zones. In our model, a northern hemispherical plate (or system of plates) moves poleward and deforms along discrete, predominately longitudinal bands. We recognize four types of foldbelts based on their relationships to other large-scale tectonic features on Venus. There are foldbelts that lie within the low plains, foldbelts associated with coronae, novae and chasmata, foldbelts that lie at the margins of poly-deformed tessera plateaus, and the folded mountain belts around Lakshmi Planum. We see a geometric increase in the area of fold belts when normalized to percent area at a given latitude. This increase is consistent with our model of poleward convergence. Also, the orientations of most foldbelts are either approximately north-south or parallel to lines of latitude in the northern hemisphere. This observation is also consistent with the model in that the longitudinal bands are the result of the decreasing area of the sphere as the plate moves poleward and the latitudinal belts are the direct result of poleward compression. The trends of wrinkle ridges have been mapped over the planet and several large, sweeping patterns evidently reflect long-wavelength topography. Using wrinkle ridges as paleostress indicators, we have developed local and regional stress trajectory maps.

Bilotti, Frank↗

Predicting Switchgrass Biomass Yields Using a Spectral Vegetation Index Derived from Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Successful scaling of perennial bioenergy crop production requires a landscape design that optimizes the benefits of finite lands for people, communities, and environments. Utilizing marginal areas is the key to sustainable bioenergy crop production (Ssegane et al., 2015, 2016). Marginal areas are often small-sized lands and unevenly distributed across the agricultural landscape (Ssegane et al., 2016); thus, a systematic, semi-automated remote sensing method is needed as an effective means of estimating bioenergy crop yields across landscapes. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is currently developing a tool, Scaling Up Perennial Bioenergy Economics and Ecosystem Services Tool (SUPERBEEST), to identify marginal agricultural lands and quantify environmental and economic effects of perennial bioenergy crop production systems. The tool aims to provide users a path to foster the sustainable and productive integration of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern agricultural landscape. Reliable, cost-effective, and timely estimation of bioenergy crop yields using remote sensing would help calculate and track the success of integrated bioenergy crops in the landscape for those communities. Argonne previously conducted feasibility studies for estimating biomass yields for bioenergy feedstock, corn and perennial grass using spectral vegetation indices (SVIs)1 derived from optical imagery (Hamada et al., 2015, 2021). In both studies, SVIs, more specifically those sensitive to plant chlorophyll or nitrogen contents, showed potential for estimating or predicting biomass yields with a correlation of determination (R2) ranging from 0.54 to 0.96, indicating a value for further investigation as a viable means of quantifying bioenergy feedstock production across large landscapes. Thus, the goal of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of use of SVIs as a means of estimating or predicting switchgrass biomass yields at harvest using publicly available multispectral satellite imagery. The feasibility analysis was performed using four study areas of mature switchgrass located in Virginia. Objectives are to (1) examine the SVIs and establish their relationships with switchgrass biomass yields at harvest, (2) develop a parsimonious image processing model for predicting at-harvest yields by applying the relationships with the most promising spectral index and (3) map switchgrass yields predicted by the image processing model across the study sites. The calibration to field data will rely on switchgrass biomass yields determined by the baling method, representing a potential challenge to the analysis but an important practical aspect for future applications. With this research design, the study aimed to gain insights into enabling remote sensing-based estimation of bioenergy crop yields in a reliable, cost- effective, and timely manner across large, heterogeneous landscapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Joint modelling of astrophysical systematics for cosmology with LSST cosmic shear

ABSTRACT We present a novel framework for jointly modelling the weak lensing source galaxy redshift distribution and the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies through a shared luminosity function (LF). In the context of a Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Year 1 and Year 10 cosmic shear analysis, we show that our novel approach produces cosmological parameter constraints which are comparable to standard methods, while offering more physical insight into IA and selection effects. We clarify the relationship between individual parameters of a Schechter LF and the redshift distribution of a magnitude-limited sample, showing the consequences of marginalizing over these parameters when modelling IAs in standard cosmic shear analyses. We explore the impact of the shape of the LF on the cosmic shear data vector, and we outline the potential of this method to naturally model selection functions in redshift distribution estimation. Although this work focuses on LSST cosmic shear, the proposed joint modelling framework is broadly applicable to weak lensing surveys.

Šarčević, Nikolina (ORCID:0000000173016415)↗

Seasonal Cost-Benefit Analysis of Automated Distribution Feeder Upgrades with Advanced Mitigation Technologies

The increasing deployment of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) to meet clean energy goals can trigger adverse grid operation issues, such as voltage excursions and the violation of thermal loading constraints of the power delivery elements (e.g., lines and transformers) on the evolving electricity infrastructure. Such integration issues would require distribution upgrades with associated costs to mitigate them and to maintain reliable and resilient grid operating conditions. Traditional distribution network upgrade approaches use a specific single snapshot analysis that is overly conservative. This study considers a multi-time point analysis to capture both moderate (probable bounds) and extreme grid operating conditions using time points such as minimum load with minimum photovoltaics (PV), maximum load with maximum PV, maximum load with minimum PV, and minimum load with maximum PV. Further, this study investigates seasonal variation impacts and associated distribution upgrade costs for a spring season case (March, representing a low load and high PV scenario) and a summer case (July, representing a high load and high PV scenario). Such seasonal analysis will allow system operators to characterize upgrade requirements and associated costs across various periods. Because the spatial distribution of DPV can impact upgrade and associated costs, this study investigates three common DPV deployment scenarios - randomly deployed, close to the substation, and far from the substation - at different penetration levels. Apart from spatial distribution impacts, this project evaluates the techno-economic impacts of the nodal photovoltaic penetration factor (NPPF) for generating the various DPV deployment scenarios at increasing penetration levels. This project investigates the impact of varying nodal PV-to-load ratios using conservative and extreme NPPF values of 3 and 10, respectively. This study investigates the deployment of traditional infrastructure upgrade strategies, such as installing new voltage regulating equipment, transformers and lines replacements, and the activation of advanced inverter functionality (e.g., autonomous volt/VAR) in expanding PV hosting capacity. Existing DPV systems are assumed to operate with the legacy unity power factor, and we considered the possibility of retrofitting such systems with the activation of volt/VAR control as integration standards and regulations continue to evolve to allow such functions. The cost-benefit analysis metrics used in study include distribution upgrade costs, average cost per watt of the upgrade cost, average marginal cost per watt of the upgrade cost, and power losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Weak Lensing Mass Calibration of the ACT DR5 Galaxy Clusters with the DES Year 3 Weak Lensing Data

We use weak gravitational lensing measurements from Year 3 Dark Energy Survey data to calibrate the masses of 443 galaxy clusters selected via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect from Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 5 maps of the cosmic microwave background. We incorporate redshift and SZ measurements for individual clusters into a hierarchical model for the stacked lensing signals and perform Bayesian analyses to constrain the hydrostatic mass bias of the clusters. Our treatment of systematic uncertainties includes a prescription for measuring and accounting for the weak lensing boost factor, consideration of a miscentering effect, as well as marginalization over uncertainties in the source galaxy photometric redshift distributions and shear calibration. The resultant constraints on the normalization of the mass-observable relation have a precision of approximately 7%, with the mean WL halo mass of M $_{500c}$ = 5.4 × 10$^{14}$ M $_{⊙}$. We measure the bias between the true cluster mass and the mass estimated from the SZ signal based on an X-ray-calibrated scaling relation assuming hydrostatic equilibrium, to be 1 - b = 0.74$^{+0.06}$ $_{-0.05}$ over the full sample. When splitting the clusters into high (z = 0.43-0.70) and low (z = 0.15-0.43) redshift bins, we measure 1 - b = 0.58$^{+0.06}$ $_{-0.05}$ and 0.81$^{+0.08}$ $_{-0.06}$, respectively. When introducing additional freedom in redshift and mass to the hydrostatic bias model, we find that 1 - b decreases with redshift (with the power law of -1.8$^{+0.5}$ $_{-0.6}$, 99.95% confidence), consistent with findings from other recent studies, while we do not find any significant trend in mass. We also demonstrate that our result is robust against various systematics such as a scale cut, priors on baryonic and miscentering parameters, and degree of scatter in mass-observable relation. The weak-lensing mass calibration presented in this study will be a useful tool for using the ACT clusters as probes of astrophysics, and as a step towards using their abundance as a cosmological probe.

Shin, T. [Carnegie Mellon U.] (ORCID:0000000263895↗

ATM CMG bearing failure analysis

The cause or causes for the failure of ATM CMG S/N 5 (Skylab 1) and the anomalies associated with ATM CMG S/N 6 (Skylab 2) were investigated. Skylab telemetry data were reviewed and presented in the form of parameter distributions. The theory that the problems were caused by marginal bearing lubrication was studied along with the effects of orbital conditions on lubricants. Bearing tests were performed to investigate the effect of lubricant or lack of lubricant in the ATM CMG bearings and the dispersion and migration of the lubricant. The vacuum and weightless conditions of space were simulated in the bearing tests. Analysis of the results of the tests conducted points to inadequate lubrication as the predominant factor causing the failure of ATM CMG S/N 5 (Skylab 1) and the anomalies associated with ATM CMG S/N 6 (Skylab 2).

Source record↗

Melt Pond Conditions on Declining Arctic Sea Ice Over 1979-2016: Model Development, Validation, and Results

A melt pond (MP) distribution equation has been developed and incorporated into the Marginal Ice-Zone Modeling and Assimilation System to simulate Arctic MPs and sea ice over 1979-2016. The equation differs from previous MP models and yet benefits from previous studies for MP parameterizations as well as a range of observations for model calibration. Model results show higher magnitude of MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction in most of the Canada Basin and the East Siberian Sea and lower magnitude in the central Arctic. This is consistent with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations, evaluated with Measurements of Earth Data for Environmental Analysis (MEDEA) data, and closely related to top ice melt per unit ice area. The model simulates a decrease in the total Arctic sea ice volume and area, owing to a strong increase in bottom and lateral ice melt. The sea ice decline leads to a strong decrease in the total MP volume and area. However, the Arctic-averaged MP volume per unit ice area and area fraction show weak, statistically insignificant downward trends, which is linked to the fact that MP water drainage per unit ice area is increasing. It is also linked to the fact that MP volume and area decrease relatively faster than ice area. This suggests that overall the actual MP conditions on ice have changed little in the past decades as the ice cover is retreating in response to Arctic warming, thus consistent with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations that show no clear trend in MP area fraction over 2000-2011.

sea ice↗

Antipodal hotspot pairs on the earth

The results of statistical analyses performed on three published hotspot distributions suggest that significantly more hotspots occur as nearly antipodal pairs than is anticipated from a random distribution, or from their association with geoid highs and divergent plate margins. The observed number of antipodal hotspot pairs depends on the maximum allowable deviation from exact antipodality. At a maximum deviation of not greater than 700 km, 26 to 37 percent of hotspots form antipodal pairs in the published lists examined here, significantly more than would be expected from the general hotspot distribution. Two possible mechanisms that might create such a distribution include: (1) symmetry in the generation of mantle plumes, and (2) melting related to antipodal focusing of seismic energy from large-body impacts.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

Fuel performance analysis of fully-resolved TRISO compact

The TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel multilayered coating structure offers multiple barriers to fission product release, enhancing safety and performance. The heterogeneous nature of TRISO fuel compacts, comprising thousands of randomly distributed coated fuel particles embedded in a graphite matrix, creates intricate stress fields and thermal gradients that cannot be accurately modeled using simplified one-dimensional or homogenized approaches. Consequently, three-dimensional modeling enables the prediction of fuel compact dimensional changes, internal pressure buildup, and fission product transport pathways under diverse irradiation and thermal conditions. This capability facilitates detailed analysis of particle-to-particle interactions, matrix cracking mechanisms, and the statistical distribution of coating failures, which directly impact fuel performance and safety margins. This capability is particularly critical for advanced reactors, such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and other Generation IV reactor designs where TRISO fuel operates at elevated temperatures and burn-up levels. This work introduces a novel method to generate an optimized packing of TRISO compacts and a complete 3D mesh with random distribution of TRISO particles, which are discretized into each coating component layer.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Rain rate statistics and fade distributions at 20 and 30 GHz derived from a network of rain gauges in the Mid-Atlantic coast over a five year period

A network of ten tipping bucket rain gauges located within a grid 70 km north-south and 47 km east-west in the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States was used to analyze rain rate and modeled slant path attenuation distributions at 20 and 30 GHz. It was shown that, for realistic fade margins at 20 GHz and above, the variable integration times results are adequate to estimate slant path attenuations using models which require 1 min averages. Crane's Global Model was used to derive fade distributions at 20 and 30 GHz.

Goldhirsh, Julius↗