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NASA NTRS1982

Time variability and structure of quiet sun sources at 6 cm wavelength

Results are presented of a detailed study of quiet sun emitting regions at 6 cm and their correspondence with regions observed at optical wavelengths. The Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope was used to obtain a 12-hr synthesis map of a quiet sun region with a resolution of 6 arcsec. Comparison of this map with a Ca(+) K filtergram indicates the features on the 6-cm map to correspond to Ca(+) K chromospheric networks and cells. In addition, about 72% of the magnetic field enhancements observed on photospheric magnetograms coincides with 6-cm emissive regions. Intercomparison of the 12-hr synthesis map, a 4-hr synthesis map and 6-cm fan beam scans along with the Ca(+) K and magnetogram results reveals all of the time-varying 6-cm elements to be located on Ca(+) K networks, and about 40% of them to be coincident with magnetogram enhancements. Lifetimes of the time-varying sources vary from a few minutes to several tens of minutes, and intensity varies by factors of 2 to 7.

Erskine, F. T.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Patterns of helicity in solar active regions

Using 46 vector magnetograms from the Stokes Polarimeter of Mees Solar Observatory (MSO), we studied patterns of local helicity in three diverse solar active regions. From these magnetograms we computed maps of the local helicity parameter alpha = J(sub z)/B(sub z). Although such maps are noisy, we found patterns at the level approximately 2 to 3 sigma(sub J(sub z)), which repeat in successive magnetograms for up to several days. Typically, the alpha maps of any given active region contain identifiable patches with both positive and negative values of alpha. Even within a single sunspot complex, several such alpha patches can often be seen. We followed 68 alpha patches that could be identified on at least two successive alpha maps. We found that the persistence fraction of such patches decrease exponentially, with a characteristic time approximately 27 hr.

Pevtsov, Alexei A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Magnetic Characteristics of Active Region Heating Observed with TRACE, SOHO/EIT, and Yohkoh/SXT

Over the past several years, we have reported results from studies that have compared the magnetic structure and heating of the transition region and corona (both in active regions and in the quiet Sun) by combining X-ray and EUV images from Yohkoh and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) with photospheric magnetograms from ground-based observatories. Our findings have led us to the hypothesis that most heating throughout the corona is driven from near and below the base of the corona by eruptive microflares occurring in compact low-lying "core magnetic fields (i.e., fields rooted along and closely enveloping polarity inversion lines in the photospheric magnetic flux). We now extend these studies, comparing sequences of UV images from Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) with longitudinal magnetograms from Kitt Peak and vector magnetograms from MUSIC. These comparisons confirm the previous results regarding the importance of core-field activity to active region heating. Activity in fields associated with satellite polarity inclusions and/or magnetically sheared configurations is especially prominent. This work is funded by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Sun-Earth Connection Guest Investigator Program and the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Porter, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

Previously, from analysis of SOHO coronal images in combination with Kitt Peak magnetograms, we found that the quiet corona is the sum of two components: the large-scale corona and the coronal network. The large-scale corona consists of all coronal-temperature (T approximately 10(exp 6) K) structures larger than supergranules (greater than approximately 30,000 kilometers). The coronal network (1) consists of all coronal-temperature structures smaller than supergranules, (2) is rooted in and loosely traces the photospheric magnetic network, (3) has its brightest features seated on polarity dividing lines (neutral lines) in the network magnetic flux, and (4) produces only about 5% of the total coronal emission in quiet regions. The heating of the coronal network is apparently magnetic in origin. Here, from analysis of EIT coronal images of quiet regions in combination with magnetograms of the same quiet regions from SOHO/MDI and from Kitt Peak, we examine the other 95% of the quiet corona and its relation to the underlying magnetic network. We find: (1) Dividing the large-scale corona into its bright and dim halves divides the area into bright "continents" and dark "oceans" having spans of 2-4 supergranules. (2) These patterns are also present in the photospheric magnetograms: the network is stronger under the bright half and weaker under the dim half. (3) The radiation from the large-scale corona increases roughly as the cube root of the magnetic flux content of the underlying magnetic network. In contrast, the coronal radiation from an active region increases roughly linearly with the magnetic flux content of the active region. We assume, as is widely held, that nearly all of the large-scale corona is magnetically rooted in the network. Our results suggest that either the coronal heating in quiet regions has a large non-magnetic component, or, if the heating is predominantly produced via the magnetic field, the mechanism is significantly different than in active regions.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

Previously, from analysis of SOHO/EIT coronal images in combination with Kitt Peak magnetograms (Falconer et al 1998, ApJ, 501, 386-396), we found that the quiet corona is the sum of two components: the e-scale corona and the coronal network. The large-scale corona consists of all coronal-temperature (T approx. 10(exp 6) K) structures larger than supergranules (>approx.30,000 km). The coronal network (1) consists of all coronal-temperature structures smaller than supergranules, (2) is rooted in and loosely traces the photospheric magnetic network, (3) has its brightest features seated on polarity dividing fines (neutral lines) in the network magnetic flux, and (4) produces only about 5% of the total coronal emission in quiet regions. The heating of the coronal network is apparently magnetic in origin. Here, from analysis of EIT coronal images of quiet regions in combination with magnetograms of the same quiet regions from SOHO/MDI and from Kitt Peak, we examine the other 95% of the quiet corona and its relation to the underlying magnetic network. We find: (1) Dividing the large-scale corona into its bright and dim halves divides the area into bright "continents" and dark "oceans" having spans of 2-4 supergranules. (2) These patterns are also present in the photospheric magnetograms: the network is stronger under the bright half and weaker under the dim half. (3) The radiation from the large-scale corona increases roughly as the cube root of the magnetic flux content of the underlying magnetic network. In contrast, Fisher et A (1998, ApJ, 508, 985-998) found that the coronal radiation from an active region increases roughly linearly with the magnetic flux content of the active region. We assume, as is widely held, that nearly all of the large-scale corona is magnetically rooted in the network. Our results, together with the result of Fisher et al (1999), suggest that either the coronal heating in quiet regions has a large non-magnetic component, or, if the heating is predominantly produced via the magnetic field, the mechanism is significantly different than in active regions. This work is funded by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program and the Sun-Earth Connection Guest Investigator Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Flare Genesis Experiment

Using the Flare Genesis Experiment (FGE), a balloon-borne observatory with an 80-cm solar telescope we observed the active region NOAA 8844 on January 25, 2000 for several hours. FGE was equipped with a vector polarimeter and a tunable Fabry-Perot narrow-band filter. It recorded time series of filtergrams, vector magnetograms, and Dopplergrams at the Ca(I) 6122.2 angstrom line, and H-alpha filtergrams with a cadence between 2.5 and 7.5 minutes. At the time of the observations, NOAA 8844 was located at approximately 5 N 30 W. The region was rapidly growing during the observations; new magnetic flux was constantly emerging in three supergranules near its center. We describe in detail how the FGE data were analyzed and report on the structure and behavior of peculiar moving dipolar features (MDFs) observed in the active region. In longitudinal magnetograms, the MDFs appeared to be small dipoles in the emerging fields. The east-west orientation of their polarities was opposite that of the sunspots. The dipoles were oriented parallel to their direction of motion, which was in most cases towards the sunspots. Previously, dipolar moving magnetic features have only been observed flowing out from sunspots. Vector magnetograms show that the magnetic field of each MDF negative part was less inclined to the local horizontal than the ones of the positive part. We identify the MDFs as undulations, or stitches, where the emerging flux ropes are still tied to the photosphere. We present a U-loop model that can account for their unusual structure and behavior, and it shows how emerging flux can shed its entrained mass.

Rust, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Observational Investigation of Solar Interior and Atmosphere

The Imaging Vector Magnetograph (IVM) has been modified to make it easier to observe at more than one spectral line. The cell holding the blocking filter has been replaced by a four-position filter wheel, so that changing to a different line is a matter of a few minutes rather than the several hours it used to take to disassemble the cell and install a new filter. Three new filters have been obtained, for Na 1589.6 nm, Fe 1630.25 nm, and H 1656.3 nm. The new filters have better bandpass profiles than the ones they replaced: somewhat wider, with flatter tops and steeper wings. This results in a reduction of parasitic light coming from adjacent Fabry-Perot orders, from seven percent to about two percent, and flattens the apparent continuum. The Mees CCD Imaging Spectrograph (MCCD) was upgraded under this grant, with a new control computer and data system. The camera was replaced with a faster, larger-format frame-transfer camera. Final integration of the upgrades is not yet complete, but tests indicate that the system cadence will be improved by a factor of five to ten, while increasing the spatial coverage by a factor of two (depending on observation options). Synoptic observations with the IVM and MCCD continue to be conducted daily, to the extent permitted by the fact that we have a single observer responsible for the observations. The older Haleakala Stokes Polarimeter is also used to make a daily vector magnetogram, normally of the region selected by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) duty scientists. This instrument, however, is showing its age to the extent that its maintenance is becoming something of a challenge. We also run a white light full-disk imager and a video H alpha prominence camera, continuously during times of observations. Of particular interest, we obtained rapid-cadence observations of the 2003 July 15 white light flare with both the IVM and MCCD. The vector magnetograms show no obvious difference between the preflare and postflare configurations. The photospheric magnetogram sequence and H alpha spectra we obtained can be combined with spacecraft observations to construct a rather detailed picture of the events of this flare. Several papers are in preparation.

Kuhn, Jeffrey R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Magnetic Causes of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections: Dominance of the Free Magnetic Energy over Either the Magnetic Twist or Size Alone

We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We have devised improved generalized measures of active-region nonpotentiality that apply to active regions of any degree of magnetic complexity, rather than being limited to bipolar active regions as our initial measures were. From a set of approx.50 active-regions, we have found that measures of total nonpotentiality have a 75-80% success rate n predicting whether an active region will produce a CME in 2 days after the magnetogram. This makes measures of total nonpotentiality a better predictor than either active-region size, or active region twist (size-normalized nonpotentiality), which have a approx.65% success rates. We have also found that we can measure from the line-of-sight magnetograms an active region's total nonpotentiality and the size, which allows use to use MDI to evaluate these quantities for 4-5 consecutive days for each active region, and to investigate if there is some combination of size and total nonpotentiality that have a stronger predictive power than does total nonpotentiality. This work was funded by NASA through its LWS TR&T Program and its Solar and Heliospheric Physics SR&T Program, and by NSF through its Solar Terrestrial Research and SHINE programs.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Probing the Magnetic Causes of CMEs: Free Magnetic Energy More Important Than Either Size Or Twist

To probe the magnetic causes of CMEs, we have examined three types of magnetic measures: size, twist and total nonpotentiality (or total free magnetic energy) of an active region. Total nonpotentiality is roughly the product of size times twist. For predominately bipolar active regions, we have found that total nonpotentiality measures have the strongest correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 75% prediction success rate), while size and twist measures each have a weaker correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 65% prediction success rate) (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, ApJ, 644, 2006). For multipolar active regions, we find that the CME-prediction success rates for total nonpotentiality and size are about the same as for bipolar active regions. We also find that the size measure correlation with CME productivity is nearly all due to the contribution of size to total nonpotentiality. We have a total nonpotentiality measure that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram of the active region and that is as strongly correlated with CME productivity as are any of our total-nonpotentiality measures from deprojected vector magnetograms. We plan to further expand our sample by using MDI magnetograms of each active region in our sample to determine its total nonpotentiality and size on each day that the active region was within 30 deg. of disk center. The resulting increase in sample size will improve our statistics and allow us to investigate whether the nonpotentiality threshold for CME production is nearly the same or significantly different for multipolar regions than for bipolar regions. In addition, we will investigate the time rates of change of size and total nonpotentiality as additional causes of CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Hinode Observations of the Onset Stage of a Solar Filament Eruption

We used Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) filtergraph (FG) Stokes-V magnetogram observations, to study the early onset of a solar eruption that includes an erupting filament that we observe in TRACE EUV images. The filament undergoes a slow rise for at least 20min prior to its fast eruption and strong soft X-ray (SXR) flaring; such slow rises have been previously reported, and the new Hinode data elucidate the physical processes occurring during this period. XRT images show that during the slow-rise phase, an SXR sigmoid forms from apparent reconnection low in the sheared core field traced by the filament, and there is a low-level intensity peak in both EUV and SXRs during the slow rise. MDI and SOT FG Stokes-V magnetograms show that the pre-emption filament is along a neutral line between opposing-polarity enhanced network cells, and the SOT magnetograms show that these opposing fields are flowing together and canceling for at least six hours prior to eruption. From the MDI data we measured the canceling network fields to be approx. 40 G, and we estimated that approx. 10(exp 19)Mx of flux canceled during the five hours prior to eruption; this is only approx.5% of the total flux spanned by the eruption and flare, but apparently its tether-cutting cancellation was enough to destabilize the sigmoid field holding the filament and resulted in that field's eruption.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Hinode Observations of the Onset Stage of a Solar Filament Eruption

We use Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) filtergraph (FG) Stokes-V magnetogram observations, to study the early onset of a solar eruption that includes an erupting filament that we observe in TRACE EUV images. The filament undergoes a slow rise for at least 20 min prior to its fast eruption and strong soft X-ray flaring; such slow rises have been previously reported, and the new Hinode data elucidate the physical processes occurring during this period. XRT images show that during the slow-rise phase, a soft X-ray (SXR) sigmoid forms from apparent reconnection low in the sheared core field traced by the filament, and there is a low-level intensity peak in both EUV and SXRs during the slow rise. MDI and SOT FG/V magnetograms show that the pre-eruption filament is along a neutral line between opposing-polarity enhanced network cells, and the SOT magnetograms show that these opposing fields are flowing together and canceling for at least six hours prior to eruption. From the MDI data we measure the canceling network fields to be approx. 40 G, and we estimate that approx. 10(exp 19) Mx of flux canceled during the five hours prior to eruption; this is only approx. 5% of the total flux spanned by the eruption and flare, but apparently its tether-cutting cancellation was enough to destabilize the sigmoid field holding the filament and resulted in that field's eruption.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Systematic Independent Validation of Inner Heliospheric Models

This presentation is the first in a series which will provide independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. In this work we establish a set of measures to be used in validating this group of models. We use these procedures to generate a comprehensive set of results from the Wang- Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model which will be used as a baseline, or reference, against which to compare all other models. We also run a test of the validation procedures by applying them to a small set of results produced by the ENLIL Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. In future presentations we will validate other models currently hosted by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), including a comprehensive validation of the ENLIL model. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is widely used to model the Solar wind, and is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth as much as four days into the future. Because it is so important to both the research and space weather forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically, and independently. In this paper we offer just such an independent and systematic validation. We report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and IMF polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests line of sight magnetograms. For this study we generated model results for monthly magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory (SOLIS), Mount Wilson Observatory and the GONG network, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2068. We compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources, performance at quiet and active times, and estimate the effect of different empirical wind speed tunings. We also consider the ability of the WSA model to identify sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model

MacNeice, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

Barghouty, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model

This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use.

MacNeice, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Limit of Free Magnetic Energy in Active Regions

By measuring from active-region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region fs magnetic field, it has been found previously that (1) there is an abrupt upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region fs magnetic flux content, and (2) the free energy is usually near its limit when the field explodes in a CME/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main-sequence path bordering the free-energy ]limit line in (flux content, free-energy proxy) phase space. Here, from measurement of Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograms, we find the magnetic condition that underlies the free ]energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free ]energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find that (1) in active regions at and near their free ]energy limit, the ratio of magnetic-shear free energy to the non ]free magnetic energy the potential field would have is approximately 1 in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free ]energy limit. This shows that most active regions in which this core-field energy ratio is much less than 1 cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches 1, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is 1 or greater, most active regions are compelled to explode. From these results we surmise the magnetic condition that determines the free ]energy limit is the ratio of the free magnetic energy to the non-free energy the active region fs field would have were it completely relaxed to its potential ]field configuration, and that this ratio is approximately 1 at the free-energy limit and in the main sequence of explosive active regions.

Moore, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2016

Converging Supergranular Flows and the Formation of Coronal Plumes

Earlier studies have suggested that coronal plumes are energized by magnetic reconnection between unipolar flux concentrations and nearby bipoles, even though magnetograms sometimes show very little minority-polarity flux near the footpoints of plumes. Here we use high-resolution extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) images and magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to clarify the relationship between plume emission and the underlying photospheric field. We find that plumes form where unipolar network elements inside coronal holes converge to form dense clumps, and fade as the clumps disperse again. The converging flows also carry internetwork fields of both polarities. Although the minority-polarity flux is sometimes barely visible in the magnetograms, the corresponding EUV images almost invariably show loop-like features in the core of the plumes, with the fine structure changing on timescales of minutes or less. We conclude that the SDO observations are consistent with a model in which plume emission originates from interchange reconnection in converging flows, with the plume lifetime being determined by the approximately 1-day evolutionary timescale of the supergranular network. Furthermore, the presence of large EUV bright points and/or ephemeral regions is not a necessary precondition for the formation of plumes, which can be energized even by the weak, mixed-polarity internetwork fields swept up by converging flows.

Sun: corona↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Synergy↗