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At least 127 records · Page 7

Dark energy survey year 3 results: cosmology from galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing in harmonic space

We present the joint tomographic analysis of galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering in harmonic space (HS), using galaxy catalogues from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We utilize the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues as lens galaxies and the metacalibration catalogue as source galaxies. The measurements of angular power spectra are performed using the pseudo-$C_\ell$ method, and our theoretical modelling follows the fiducial analyses performed by DES Y3 in configuration space, accounting for galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, magnification bias, shear magnification bias and photometric redshift uncertainties. We explore different approaches for scale cuts based on non-linear galaxy bias and baryonic effects contamination. Our fiducial covariance matrix is computed analytically, accounting for mask geometry in the Gaussian term, and including non-Gaussian contributions and super-sample covariance terms. To validate our HS pipelines and covariance matrix, we used a suite of 1800 log-normal simulations. We also perform a series of stress tests to gauge the robustness of our HS analysis. In the $\Lambda$CDM model, the clustering amplitude $S_8 =\sigma _8(\Omega _m/0.3)^{0.5}$ is constrained to $S_8 = 0.704\pm 0.029$ and $S_8 = 0.753\pm 0.024$ (68 per cent C.L.) for the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. For the wCDM, the dark energy equation of state is constrained to $w = -1.28 \pm 0.29$ and $w = -1.26^{+0.34}_{-0.27}$, for redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. These results are compatible with the corresponding DES Y3 results in configuration space and pave the way for HS analyses using the DES Y6 data.

(cosmology:) cosmological parameters↗

Weighted least squares formulas for multiple Doppler radar analysis

An algorithm is developed for the analysis of multiple Doppler radar data in meteorological applications. The algorithm is based on the least squares linear solutions for the variable parameters of a local particle velocity field. The computational sequence for the algorithm is described, and some factors influencing the covariance of Doppler measurement errors are discussed.

Wilson, F. W., Jr.↗

Development of a Nonlinear Probability of Collision Tool for the Earth Observing System

The Earth Observing System (EOS) spacecraft Terra, Aqua, and Aura fly in constellation with several other spacecraft in 705-kilometer mean altitude sun-synchronous orbits. All three spacecraft are operated by the Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Project at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). In 2004, the ESMO project began assessing the probability of collision of the EOS spacecraft with other space objects. In addition to conjunctions with high relative velocities, the collision assessment method for the EOS spacecraft must address conjunctions with low relative velocities during potential collisions between constellation members. Probability of Collision algorithms that are based on assumptions of high relative velocities and linear relative trajectories are not suitable for these situations; therefore an algorithm for handling the nonlinear relative trajectories was developed. This paper describes this algorithm and presents results from its validation for operational use. The probability of collision is typically calculated by integrating a Gaussian probability distribution over the volume swept out by a sphere representing the size of the space objects involved in the conjunction. This sphere is defined as the Hard Body Radius. With the assumption of linear relative trajectories, this volume is a cylinder, which translates into simple limits of integration for the probability calculation. For the case of nonlinear relative trajectories, the volume becomes a complex geometry. However, with an appropriate choice of coordinate systems, the new algorithm breaks down the complex geometry into a series of simple cylinders that have simple limits of integration. This nonlinear algorithm will be discussed in detail in the paper. The nonlinear Probability of Collision algorithm was first verified by showing that, when used in high relative velocity cases, it yields similar answers to existing high relative velocity linear relative trajectory algorithms. The comparison with the existing high velocity/linear theory will also be used to determine at what relative velocity the analysis should use the new nonlinear theory in place of the existing linear theory. The nonlinear algorithm was also compared to a known exact solution for the probability of collision between two objects when the relative motion is strictly circular and the error covariance is spherically symmetric. Figure I shows preliminary results from this comparison by plotting the probabilities calculated from the new algorithm and those from the exact solution versus the Hard Body Radius to Covariance ratio. These results show about 5% error when the Hard Body Radius is equal to one half the spherical covariance magnitude. The algorithm was then combined with a high fidelity orbit state and error covariance propagator into a useful tool for analyzing low relative velocity nonlinear relative trajectories. The high fidelity propagator is capable of using atmospheric drag, central body gravitational, solar radiation, and third body forces to provide accurate prediction of the relative trajectories and covariance evolution. The covariance propagator also includes a process noise model to ensure realistic evolutions of the error covariance. This paper will describe the integration of the nonlinear probability algorithm and the propagators into a useful collision assessment tool. Finally, a hypothetical case study involving a low relative velocity conjunction between members of the Earth Observation System constellation will be presented.

McKinley, David P.↗

Evaluation of the DAO Retrospective Data Assimilation System

We have developed and implemented a retrospective data assimilation system (RDAS) as an upgrade to the operational DAO/Terra data assimilation system. This formulation aims at improving analysis over filter analysis by the dynamically consistent incorporation of observation information past a given analysis time. The current implementation of the RDAS uses the adjoint of the tangent linear model of a simplified version of the Terra general circulation model and extensions to the physical-space statistical analysis system to propagate observation information back in time. The RDAS adopts the same assumptions of the regular data assimilation system, particularly, no explicit propagation of error covariances are involved therefore rendering a procedure that is computationally affordable. In this study, we show results of experiments conducted to investigate the performance of the 6-hour (lag-1) RDAS. Statistical results obtained over one month during a winter season indicate that the RDAS represents considerable improvement over the regular assimilation. Plans for implementation of the RDAS capability in our new finite-volume data assimilation system will also be presented at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqiu↗

Covariance Analysis Tool (G-CAT) for Computing Ascent, Descent, and Landing Errors

G-CAT is a covariance analysis tool that enables fast and accurate computation of error ellipses for descent, landing, ascent, and rendezvous scenarios, and quantifies knowledge error contributions needed for error budgeting purposes. Because GCAT supports hardware/system trade studies in spacecraft and mission design, it is useful in both early and late mission/ proposal phases where Monte Carlo simulation capability is not mature, Monte Carlo simulation takes too long to run, and/or there is a need to perform multiple parametric system design trades that would require an unwieldy number of Monte Carlo runs. G-CAT is formulated as a variable-order square-root linearized Kalman filter (LKF), typically using over 120 filter states. An important property of G-CAT is that it is based on a 6-DOF (degrees of freedom) formulation that completely captures the combined effects of both attitude and translation errors on the propagated trajectories. This ensures its accuracy for guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) analysis. G-CAT provides the desired fast turnaround analysis needed for error budgeting in support of mission concept formulations, design trade studies, and proposal development efforts. The main usefulness of a covariance analysis tool such as G-CAT is its ability to calculate the performance envelope directly from a single run. This is in sharp contrast to running thousands of simulations to obtain similar information using Monte Carlo methods. It does this by propagating the "statistics" of the overall design, rather than simulating individual trajectories. G-CAT supports applications to lunar, planetary, and small body missions. It characterizes onboard knowledge propagation errors associated with inertial measurement unit (IMU) errors (gyro and accelerometer), gravity errors/dispersions (spherical harmonics, masscons), and radar errors (multiple altimeter beams, multiple Doppler velocimeter beams). G-CAT is a standalone MATLAB- based tool intended to run on any engineer's desktop computer.

Boussalis, Dhemetrios↗

Asteroid orbital error analysis: Theory and application

We present a rigorous Bayesian theory for asteroid orbital error estimation in which the probability density of the orbital elements is derived from the noise statistics of the observations. For Gaussian noise in a linearized approximation the probability density is also Gaussian, and the errors of the orbital elements at a given epoch are fully described by the covariance matrix. The law of error propagation can then be applied to calculate past and future positional uncertainty ellipsoids (Cappellari et al. 1976, Yeomans et al. 1987, Whipple et al. 1991). To our knowledge, this is the first time a Bayesian approach has been formulated for orbital element estimation. In contrast to the classical Fisherian school of statistics, the Bayesian school allows a priori information to be formally present in the final estimation. However, Bayesian estimation does give the same results as Fisherian estimation when no priori information is assumed (Lehtinen 1988, and reference therein).

Muinonen, K.↗

Mission Analysis Program for Solar Electric Propulsion (MAPSEP). Volume 1: Analytical manual

The mission analysis program for solar electric propulsion (MAPSEP) is comprised of the basic modes: TOPSEP (trajectory generation), GODSEP (linear error analysis), and SIMSEP (simulation). The program is designed to analyze any low thrust mission with respect to trajectory performance, guidance and navigation, and to provide system related requirements for the purpose of vehicle design. The MAPSEP organization is described along with all models and algorithms. Topics discussed include: trajectory and error covariance propagation methods, orbit determination processes, thrust modeling, and trajectory correction (guidance) schemes.

Hong, P. E.↗

Performance analysis of structured gradient algorithm

The structured gradient algorithm uses a structured estimate of the array correlation matrix (ACM) to estimate the gradient required for the constrained least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm. This structure reflects the structure of the exact array correlation matrix for an equispaced linear array and is obtained by spatial averaging of the elements of the noisy correlation matrix. In its standard form the LMS algorithm does not exploit the structure of the array correlation matrix. The gradient is estimated by multiplying the array output with the receiver outputs. An analysis of the two algorithms is presented to show that the covariance of the gradient estimated by the structured method is less sensitive to the look direction signal than that estimated by the standard method. The effect of the number of elements on the signal sensitivity of the two algorithms is studied.

Godara, Lal C.↗

A First Look at the Navigation Design and Analysis for the Orion Exploration Mission 2

This paper will detail the navigation and dispersion design and analysis of the first Orion crewed mission. The optical navigation measurement model will be described. The vehicle noise includes the residual acceleration from attitude deadbanding, attitude maneuvers, CO2 venting, wastewater venting, ammonia sublimator venting and solar radiation pressure. The maneuver execution errors account for the contribution of accelerometer scale-factor on the accuracy of the maneuver execution. Linear covariance techniques are used to obtain the navigation errors and the trajectory dispersions as well as the DV performance. Particular attention will be paid to the accuracy of the delivery at Earth Entry Interface and at the Lunar Flyby.

D'Souza, Chris D.↗

Dispersion analysis techniques within the space vehicle dynamics simulation program

The Space Vehicle Dynamics Simulation (SVDS) program was evaluated as a dispersion analysis tool. The Linear Error Analysis (LEA) post processor was examined in detail and simulation techniques relative to conducting a dispersion analysis using the SVDS were considered. The LEA processor is a tool for correlating trajectory dispersion data developed by simulating 3 sigma uncertainties as single error source cases. The processor combines trajectory and performance deviations by a root-sum-square (RSS process) and develops a covariance matrix for the deviations. Results are used in dispersion analyses for the baseline reference and orbiter flight test missions. As a part of this study, LEA results were verified as follows: (A) Hand calculating the RSS data and the elements of the covariance matrix for comparison with the LEA processor computed data. (B) Comparing results with previous error analyses. The LEA comparisons and verification are made at main engine cutoff (MECO).

Snow, L. S.↗

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Ghrist, Richard W.↗

Integrated tools for control-system analysis

The basic functions embedded within a user friendly software package (MATRIXx) are used to provide a high level systems approach to the analysis of linear control systems. Various control system analysis configurations are assembled automatically to minimize the amount of work by the user. Interactive decision making is incorporated via menu options and at selected points, such as in the plotting section, by inputting data. There are five evaluations such as the singular value robustness test, singular value loop transfer frequency response, Bode frequency response, steady-state covariance analysis, and closed-loop eigenvalues. Another section describes time response simulations. A time response for random white noise disturbance is available. The configurations and key equations used for each type of analysis, the restrictions that apply, the type of data required, and an example problem are described. One approach for integrating the design and analysis tools is also presented.

Ostroff, Aaron J.↗

A tool for manual endmember selection and spectral unmixing

Sampling a continuous radiance spectrum in many narrow contiguous spectral bands results in a high covariance between the bands. Hence, the true dimensionality of imaging spectrometer data is not determined by the number of spectral bands, but by the number of spectrally unique signatures whose mixtures reproduce the spectral variance observed in an image. Methods to unmix high dimensional multispectral data use principal components analysis to reduce the dimensionality. The variance of the spectral data is modeled as a linear combination of a finite set of endmembers in the space of the eigen-vectors that account for most of the variance. The number and characteristics of these endmembers are determined not only by the number and characteristics of the spectrally unique materials on the surface but also by processes (e.g., illumination, atmospheric scattering and absorption) affecting the signal received by the sensor. Selection of endmember spectra has typically been from a library. However, since most libraries are incomplete and do not account for the processes mentioned above, we have devised a computer display that allows researchers to explore interactively the eigenvector space of a representative and mean-corrected subset of the image data in search of extreme spectra to designate as endmembers. This display, which is based on parallel coordinates, is unique in the area of multidimensional visualization in that it includes not only a passive view of higher dimensional data but also the capability to interact and move geometrical objects in higher dimensional spaces.

Bateson, C. Ann↗

Development and application of two-step uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methodology for fast reactor safety analysis

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear reactors for transients is directly linked with safety assessment through the cross-sections uncertainties, provided as a covariance matrix, which are propagated through the reactor system to output of interest pertaining to reactor safety, such as peak temperatures in fuel/clad/coolant. Using a two-step approach, uncertainties are first quantified and propagated from basic input variables (such as reaction cross-sections) to intermediate quantities (such as reactivity feedback coefficients) through lattice level calculations. Uncertainties of intermediate quantities (from the first step) are then propagated through the system transient calculations, in the second step, to obtain uncertainties on reactor safety output parameters of interest. The scope of this work consists of Uncertainty Quantification & Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties that are highly correlated through unprotected transient overpower and unprotected loss of flow to assess their impact on core safety parameters. This two-step approach in the presence of covariance renders the sensitivity analysis very challenging. In fact, usually the sensitivity analysis is restricted to each step, which limits its application since the sensitivities between the system output quantities and the basic input variables are difficult to obtain. Here, in this work, we address this issue by proposing a simple, general methodology to combine the sensitivity indices obtained in each step by assuming the model behavior being linear. For the first step Generalized Perturbation theory based indices are used while in the second step the recently studied Johnson indices. The uncertainty quantification and sensitivity methodologies discussed here are demonstrated on a generic LFR design which is based on the 500 MWth demonstration Lead-cooled fast reactor (DLFR) using oxide fuel, developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC).

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗

Role of the likelihood for elastic scattering uncertainty quantification

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ 2 minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ 2 /N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ 2 ), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ 2 /N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $\sqrt{N}$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Measuring Greenland Ice Mass Variation With Gravity Recovery and the Climate Experiment Gravity and GPS

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change could significantly alter sea level. The ice sheet was much thicker at the last glacial maximum. To gain insight into the global change process and the future trend, it is important to evaluate the ice mass variation as a function of time and space. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission to fly in 2001 for 5 years will measure gravity changes associated with the current ice variation and the solid earth's response to past variations. Our objective is to assess the separability of different change sources, accuracy and resolution in the mass variation determination by the new gravity data and possible Global Positioning System (GPS) bedrock uplift measurements. We use a reference parameter state that follows a dynamic ice model for current mass variation and a variant of the Tushingham and Peltier ICE-3G deglaciation model for historical deglaciation. The current linear trend is also assumed to have started 5 kyr ago. The Earth model is fixed as preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) with four viscoelastic layers. A discrete Bayesian inverse algorithm is developed employing an isotropic Gaussian a priori covariance function over the ice sheet and time. We use data noise predicted by the University of Texas and JPL for major GRACE error sources. A 2 mm/yr uplift uncertainty is assumed for GPS occupation time of 5 years. We then carry out covariance analysis and inverse simulation using GRACE geoid coefficients up to degree 180 in conjunction with a number of GPS uplift rates. Present-day ice mass variation and historical deglaciation are solved simultaneously over 146 grids of roughly 110 km x 110 km and with 6 time increments of 3 kyr each, along with a common starting epoch of the current trend. For present-day ice thickness change, the covariance analysis using GRACE geoid data alone results in a root mean square (RMS) posterior root variance of 2.6 cm/yr, with fairly large a priori uncertainties in the parameters and a Gaussian correlation length of 350 km. Simulated inverse can successfully recover most features in the reference present-day change. The RMS difference between them over the grids is 2.8 cm/yr. The RMS difference becomes 1.1 cm/yr when both are averaged with a half Gaussian wavelength of 150 km. With a fixed Earth model, GRACE alone can separate the geoid signals due to past and current load fairly well. Shown are the reference geoid signatures of direct and elastic effects of the current trend, the viscoelastic effect of the same trend starting from 5 kyr ago, the Post Glacial Rebound (PGR), and the predicted GRACE geoid error. The difference between the reference and inverse modeled total viscoelastic signatures is also shown. Although past and current ice mass variations are allowed the same spatial scale, their geoid signals have different spatial patterns. GPS data can contribute to the ice mass determination as well. Additional information is contained in the original.

Wu, Xiao-Ping↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Weak Lensing and Galaxy Clustering Cosmological Analysis Framework

We present the methodology for the weak lensing and galaxy clustering analyses of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 data set. In this work, we design and validate the analysis pipeline for the cosmic shear, galaxy clustering plus galaxy$-$galaxy lensing ($2 \times 2$pt), and the joint analysis in the $3 \times 2$pt. Our framework accounts for key theoretical uncertainties, such as baryonic feedback and galaxy bias, incorporating both linear and non-linear models. We apply scale cuts in regimes where theoretical modeling becomes unreliable. The robustness of the pipeline is validated using mock data and simulations, confirming unbiased cosmological constraints and highlighting the importance of posterior projection effects in the validation process. As a result, we deliver robust and validated analysis pipelines for cosmic shear, $2 \times 2$pt, and $3 \times 2$pt in $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM scenarios, including a well-defined set of scales suitable for real data analysis, a robust prescription for theoretical systematics, and the theoretical covariance of the signal. This comprehensive methodology also lays the groundwork for future galaxy surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

Sanchez-Cid, D. [Zurich U.; Madrid, CIEMAT; Madrid↗