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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Diagnosing the pedestal magnetic field and magnetohydrodynamics radial structure with pedestal–scrape of layer electron cyclotron emission radiation inversion in H-mode plasma (invited)

Forward modeling is used to interpret inversion patterns of the pedestal–Scrape of Layer (SOL) Electron Cyclotron Emission (ECE) in DIII-D H-mode experiments. The modeling not only significantly improves the ECE data interpretation quality but also leads to the potential measurements of (1) the magnetic field strength |B| at the separatrix, (2) the pedestal |B| evolution during an inter-Edge Localized Mode (ELM) period, and (3) the pedestal Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) radial structure. The ECE shine-through effect leads to three types of pedestal–SOL radiation inversions that are discussed in this paper. The first type of inversion is the non-monotonic T e,rad profile with respect to the major radius. Using the ECE frequency at the minimum T e,rad , the inversion can be applied to measure the magnetic field |B| at the separatrix and calibrate the mapping of the ECE channels with respect to the separatrix. The second type of inversion refers to the opposite phase between the radiation fluctuations δT e,rad at the pedestal and SOL. This δT e,rad phase inversion is sensitive to density and temperature fluctuations at the pedestal foot and, thus, can be used to qualitatively measure the MHD radial structure. The third type of inversion appears when the pedestal and SOL T e,rad evolve in an opposite trend, which can be used to infer the pedestal |B| field change during an inter-ELM period. Finally, the bandwidth effect on measuring δT e,rad due to pedestal MHD is also investigated in the radiation modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric Temperature Inversions and He ι 5876 Core Profile Structure in White Dwarfs

Here we report distinctive core profiles in the strongest optical helium line, He ι λ5876, from high-resolution high-sensitivity observations of spectral type DB white dwarfs. By analyzing a sample of 40 stars from Keck/HIRES and VLT/UVES, we find the core appearance to be related to the degree of hydrogen and heavy element content in the atmosphere. New Ca K-line measurements or upper limits are reported for about half the sample stars. He ι λ5876 emission cores with a self-reversed central component are present for those stars with relatively low hydrogen abundance, as well as relatively low atmospheric heavy element pollution. This self-reversed structure disappears for stars with higher degrees of pollution and/or hydrogen abundance, giving way to a single absorption core. From our model atmospheres, we show that the self-reversed emission cores can be explained by temperature inversions in the upper atmosphere. We propose that the transition to a single absorption core is due to the additional opacity from hydrogen and heavy elements that inhibits the temperature inversions. Our current models do not exactly match the effective temperature range of the phenomenon or the amplitude of the self-reversed structure, which is possibly a result of missing physics such as 3D treatment, convective overshoot, and/or non-LTE effects. The He ι λ5876 line structure may prove to be a useful new diagnostic for calibrating temperature profiles in DB atmosphere models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Impact of the Screen Configurations on the Estimated Terra MODIS SD Degradation

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on-board the Aqua and Terra spacecraft have collected valuable Earth data for the last 19 and 21 years, respectively. MODIS is equipped with various on-orbit calibrators, including a solar diffuser (SD) and solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM), that are used to monitor changes in the instrument’s gain over time. Nominally, SD calibrations alternate between two configurations: screen open and screen closed. Terra MODIS, however, experienced an anomaly in 2003, which has left the SD door and screen in a permanent open-closed configuration. This resulted in accelerated degradation of the SD on Terra MODIS due to the direct solar radiation exposure every orbit. It also led to an unexpected divergence between the calibration coefficients, m1, or the inverse of the gain, generated using SD data and those generated using lunar observations at the time of the 2003 anomaly. This paper examines the effect of the screen configuration on the Terra SD degradation by analyzing Terra SDSM data and comparing to Aqua. We generate “pseudo-open” Terra SDSM data by modeling the ratio of Aqua screen open and screen closed SDSM data and calculate the Terra SD degradation using this new screen open data. We then examine the effects on our m1 values calculated using this new pseudo-open SD degradation for Terra. Implementing this new degradation results in a smaller discrepancy between the lunar and SD m1 values after the door anomaly, indicating that there may be a systematic error in the SD degradation calculated with screen closed data.

MODIS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pressure Transient Analyses and Poroelastic Modeling of Hydraulic Fracture Dilation for Multiple Injections at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site

Our team has conducted electromagnetic (EM) surveys for the past six years to monitor hydraulic-fracture behavior at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site (DFPS). The sub-horizontal orientation of a shallow hydraulic fracture at the DFPS provides uniform access to the fracture area for interrogation and data collection. Ahmadian et al. (2023) suggested a possible correlation between spatiotemporal changes in the flow rate, bottomhole pressure (BHP), and the observed surface recorded electric field at the DFPS. In this paper, we present the development of poroelastic forward models and pressure transient analyses (PTAs) to support the development of a multiphysics inverse model for these EM surveys. First, we conducted PTAs of the shut-in periods after six injections out of 10 to determine the fracture closure pressure (FCP) or the overburden pressure used in a poroelastic fracture reopening model. Second, we developed a finite-element poroelastic model throughout five injection cycles to include the effect of the cumulative injected volumes due to the previous injections on current fracture dilation in the presence of highly permeable unpropped and propped zones adjacent to the cohesive layer that models fracture reopening. Fracture reopening in this poroelastic model is based on a calibrated traction-separation response using the bottomhole pressure collected in two injection campaigns in 2020 and 2022. We used the outcomes of a previous simulation study of the primary hydraulic-fracturing stimulation to define the dimension of an unpropped fracture zone ahead of the propped fracture area. The PTAs led to FCPs consistent with those obtained using the injection data collected at the DFPS in 2020. Further, these analyses showed that at later injections, the fracture closure occurred at a later time with respect to the shut-in time, inferring the effect of cumulative injected volumes in previous injections. The simulation results show that considering the propped and unpropped fracture zones improves our poroelastic model in predicting the injection-well BHP. The numerical simulation results demonstrate a significant excess pore pressure near the fracture because of the preceding formation loadings by the previous injections. The obtained fracture dilation area and fluid pressure distribution provide a basis to improve the development of a multiphysics inverse model. Furthermore, in an iteratively coupled scheme, this pressure distribution can be introduced into EM models to render a holistic view of the causative mechanisms for the surface signal anomalies.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Novel strategies for modal-based structural material identification

Here, we present modal-based methods for model calibration in structural dynamics, and address several key challenges in the solution of gradient-based optimization problems with eigenvalues and eigenvectors, including the solution of singular Helmholtz problems encountered in sensitivity calculations, non-differentiable objective functions caused by mode swapping during optimization, and cases with repeated eigenvalues. Unlike previous literature that relied on direct solution of the eigenvector adjoint equations, we present a parallel iterative domain decomposition strategy (Adjoint Computation via Modal Superposition with Truncation Augmentation) for the solution of the singular Helmholtz problems. For problems with repeated eigenvalues we present a novel Mode Separation via Projection algorithm, and in order to address mode swapping between inverse iterations we present a novel Injective mode ordering metric. We present the implementation of these methods in a massively parallel finite element framework with the ability to use measured modal data to extract unknown structural model parameters from large complex problems. A series of increasingly complex numerical examples are presented that demonstrate the implementation and performance of the methods in a massively parallel finite element framework [7], [5], using gradient-based optimization techniques in the Rapid Optimization Library (ROL) [21].

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling for Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of system thermal-hydraulics code using critical flow experimental data

The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology in nuclear system thermal-hydraulic studies necessitates a comprehensive understanding of uncertainties in system code predictions. The forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) process involves the propagation of input uncertainties through the computational models to obtain uncertainties in the outputs. To this end, achieving an accurate estimation of input uncertainties is important, which is the focus of inverse UQ (IUQ). Traditionally, research in Bayesian IUQ within the nuclear engineering domain has largely relied on single-level Bayesian inference. While being effective for relatively small datasets, this approach encounters limitations for cases with large datasets. The use of a single-level model may prove inefficient, as the resultant posterior distributions can significantly differ when distinct subsets of data are employed. To address this issue, we employ an hierarchical Bayesian model for IUQ. Furthermore, this approach involves organizing observations into different groups based on the test conditions, thereby accommodating varying calibration parameters across these distinct groups. In this study, we developed and implemented a hierarchical Bayesian IUQ method to consider the grouping effect of critical flow measurement data from various geometries. Comparing the outcomes of IUQ under different selections of test data using hierarchical Bayesian IUQ against those obtained from single-level Bayesian IUQ, the forward propagation of hierarchical Bayesian IUQ results demonstrates a notably improved agreement with the experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1993

Modeling Spectralon's Bidirectional Reflectance for In-flight Calibration of Earth-Orbiting Sensors

The in-flight calibration of the EOS Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) will be achieved, in part, by observing deployable Spectralon panels. This material reflects light diffusely, and allows all cameras to view a near constant radiance field. This is particularly true when a panel is illuminated near the surface normal. To meet the challenging MISR calibration requirements, however, very accurate knowledge of the panel reflectance must be known for all utilized angles of illumination, and for all camera and monitoring photodiode view angles. It is believed that model predictions of the panels Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) can be used in conjunction with a measurements program to provide the required characterization. This paper describes the results of a model inversion which was conducted using measured Spectralon BRDF data at several illumination angles. Four physical parameters of the material were retrieved, and are available for use with the model to predict reflectance for any arbitrary illumination or view angle. With these data the root mean square difference between the model and the observations is currently of the order of the noise in the data, at about +/- l%. With this success the model will now be used in a variety of future studies, including the development of a measurements test plan, the validation of these data, and the prediction of a new BRDF profile, should the material degrade in space.

Flasse, Stephane P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRS1982

Contrast reduction by the atmosphere and retrieval of nonuniform surface reflectance

A radiative transfer model is developed which gives the upward radiance at nadir for any 1-D Lambertian surface reflectance. This model is used to depict the atmospheric effect on the transmittance of contrast for any 1-D surface reflectance. Here by contrast we mean a general variation of the radiation field across the image. With the aid of this model an inversion algorithm is developed for retrieval of true surface reflectance from high resolution satellite data (e.g., Landsat). This inversion technique can be a useful tool for extraction of surface reflectance from satellite data in the case of a surface reflectance variable in one dimension only (e.g., seashore or near borders of big fields). A sensitivity study of the inversion procedure on the knowledge of atmospheric parameters and sensor calibration was performed. It is shown that this inversion technique is stable even in the presence of errors in the sensor calibration and the atmospheric parameters. The method was applied to Landsat data in two wavelengths. The results show reasonable dependence of the derived surface reflectance on the distance from the seashore.

Mekler, Y.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme

The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Response characteristics of laser diffraction particle size analyzers - Optical sample volume extent and lens effects

The response characteristics of laser diffraction particle sizing instruments were studied theoretically and experimentally. In particular, the extent of optical sample volume and the effects of receiving lens properties were investigated in detail. The experimental work was performed with a particle size analyzer using a calibration reticle containing a two-dimensional array of opaque circular disks on a glass substrate. The calibration slide simulated the forward-scattering characteristics of a Rosin-Rammler droplet size distribution. The reticle was analyzed with collection lenses of 63 mm, 100 mm, and 300 mm focal lengths using scattering inversion software that determined best-fit Rosin-Rammler size distribution parameters. The data differed from the predicted response for the reticle by about 10 percent. A set of calibration factor for the detector elements was determined that corrected for the nonideal response of the instrument. The response of the instrument was also measured as a function of reticle position, and the results confirmed a theoretical optical sample volume model presented here.

Hirleman, E. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

SAR terrain classifier and mapper of biophysical attributes

In preparation for the launch of SIR-C/X-SAR and design studies for future orbital SAR, a program has made considerable progress in the development of an SAR terrain classifier and algorithms for quantification of biophysical attributes. The goal of this program is to produce a generalized software package for terrain classification and estimation of biophysical attributes and to make this package available to the larger scientific community. The basic elements of the SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) terrain classifier are outlined. An SAR image is calibrated with respect to known system and processor gains and external targets (if available). A Level 1 classifier operates on the data to differentiate: urban features, surfaces and tall and short vegetation. Level 2 classifiers further subdivide these classes on the basis of structure. Finally, biophysical and geophysical inversions are applied to each class to estimate attributes of interest. The process used to develop the classifiers and inversions is shown. Radar scattering models developed from theory and from empirical data obtained by truck-mounted polarimeters and the JPL AirSAR are validated. The validated models are used in sensitivity studies to understand the roles of various scattering sources (i.e., surface trunk, branches, etc.) in determining net backscatter. Model simulations of sigma (sup o) as functions of the wave parameters (lambda, polarization and angle of incidence) and the geophysical and biophysical attributes are used to develop robust classifiers. The classifiers are validated using available AirSAR data sets. Specific estimators are developed for each class on the basis of the scattering models and empirical data sets. The candidate algorithms are tested with the AirSAR data sets. The attributes of interest include: total above ground biomass, woody biomass, soil moisture and soil roughness.

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1996

Research concerning the net flux of radiation in the atmosphere of Jupiter

The plan of the NFR (Net Flux of Radiation) team is for the data from the two solar channels (B and E) of NFR to be reduced with the goal of determining the solar heating rate. In order to determine the solar heating rate from the NFR measurements, effects due to the instrument's spatial and spectral response functions, to the temperature variation of the instrument (and associated drift of calibration), to the setting sun, and to the rotation of the probe (initially at a rate comparable to the NFR sampling frequency), all must be well modelled. In the past year, a forward modeling routine was created to simulate NFR data return in the B and E channels. The effects of varying parameters describing the atmospheric model (such as cloud location and thickness) and the descent profile (such as rotation rate) were investigated and an inversion routine was developed. For the forward modeling, existing radiative transfer codes were used to determine intensity fields within the Jovian atmosphere. A routine was developed to determine instantaneous instrument response by integrating the intensity field over the instrument response functions. A second routine was developed to determine the actual output of the NFR by integrating along an arbitrary descent trajectory. Near the top of the atmosphere, the upflux data alone are used to constrain the cloud structure of he atmosphere. To accomplish this, models are used to describe the variation in up flux between consecutive measurements in terms of variations of cloud opacity and variations in known parameters such as the solar zenith angle. This allows us to develop a zero-order model of cloud structure. Lower in the atmosphere, at levels where there is little or no azimuthal structure to the net flux measurements, both the up flux and net flux are used to derive layer transmission and reflection functions, which then determine layer opacity and single scattering albedo. A preliminary analysis of the data began in December 1995. In these data we could see the rapid oscillations expected at the beginning of the data due to probe rotation and the sun passing through the edge of the field of view. In addition, the time when this oscillation stopped was clearly visible. This sets the rough optical depth above the probe at this time.

Tomasko, M. G.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nuclear Data Adjustment for Nonlinear Applications in the OECD/NEA WPNCS SG14 Benchmark—A Bayesian Inverse UQ-Based Approach for Data Assimilation

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety has proposed a benchmark exercise to assess the performance of current nuclear data adjustment techniques applied to nonlinear applications and experiments with low correlation to applications. This work introduces Bayesian inverse uncertainty quantification (IUQ) employing scientific machine learning surrogate models as a method for nuclear data adjustments in this benchmark, and compares IUQ to the more traditional methods of generalized linear least squares (GLLS) and Monte Carlo Bayes (MOCABA). Posterior predictions from IUQ showed agreement with GLLS and MOCABA for linear applications. Here, when comparing GLLS, MOCABA, and IUQ posterior predictions to computed model responses using adjusted parameters, we observe that the GLLS predictions failed to replicate the computed response distributions for nonlinear applications, while MOCABA showed near agreement, and IUQ used the computed model responses directly. We also discuss observations on why experiments with low correlation to applications can be informative to nuclear data adjustments and identify some properties useful in selecting experiments for inclusion in nuclear data adjustment. Performance in this benchmark indicates potential for Bayesian IUQ in nuclear data adjustments.

Bayesian calibration↗
NASA NTRS1982

Applicaton of radiative transfer theory to microwave transmission medium calibrations

Precise determinations of the transmission medium loss and noise temperature contribution which are important to the performance characterization of low noise microwave receiving systems and thermal noise standards are discussed. Tropospheric loss is frequently inferred from microwave radiometer noise temperature measurements. Interpretation of these measurements requires an inversion of the radiative transfer integral equation. This is inconvenient even with computer techniques. Solutions of a rapidly convergent power series of the radiative transfer equations are presented. This solution is applicable to a low loss medium with either uniform or nonuniform loss distributions. A four layer atmosphere model is investigated to demonstrate the accuracy of the solution relative to the model. Applications include thermal noise standards and single- and dual-frequency water radiometers.

Stelzried, C. T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian State-Space Modeling Framework for Understanding and Predicting Golden Eagle Movements Using Telemetry Data

Predicting raptor movements through a wind power plant under given atmospheric and topographical conditions is a crucial first step in the overall goal of quantifying the risk of turbine-related collisions and mortalities. Extracting behavioral traits of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from telemetry data requires the fusion of noisy and sparse movement data (location, heading, velocity) with a stochastic mathematical representation of the eagles' decision-making processes. In this study, we framed this problem in a Bayesian state-space framework where both observations and decision-making are assumed to be stochastic processes connected through hidden states (mode of flight, intent), and the unknown model parameters are assumed to be random variables that are calibrated using the available telemetry data. This framework allowed for rigorous consideration of underlying uncertainties while allowing for both data and prior biological knowledge to contribute to a probabilistic and predictive agent-based movement model. We implemented and applied the Bayesian framework to understand movement behavior of 23 GPS-tagged golden eagles travelling in the western US for years 2019 and 2020. Our preliminary findings show that the Bayesian state-space framework provides a robust inverse modeling apparatus to decode eagle behavioral characteristics from telemetry data. This study was primarily aimed at verifying and validating the framework with selected golden eagle tracks (both long- and short-ranged), with future research aimed at extending the framework to include multi-mode flight, consideration of atmospheric data and uplift mechanisms, eagle-to-eagle interaction, and eagle-to-turbine interaction.

Bayesian modeling↗