Results for “Internal Model Principle” — Page 7

DOE OSTI2025

Net Present Value Optimization of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Plant with CO 2 Capture using a Water-Lean Solvent Considering Transient Electricity Price for Multiple Regions

Global CO 2 emissions are increasing at about a 1.5% rate per year. Fossil fuel-based plants are one of the main contributors to this rise. In the power generation industry, fossil fuel plants are dominant, and many plants are under development. In this study, a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant with postcombustion capture using a leading water-lean solvent is considered. For optimal design and operating schedule, large-scale dynamic optimization is undertaken for net present value (NPV) optimization. The first principle dynamic model of NGCC is developed, including a model of the highly efficient H-class gas turbines. For computational tractability of the dynamic optimization problem, a reduced-order model is developed by using the Hankel singular value decomposition. A waterlean solvent, N-(2-ethoxyethyl)-3-morpholinopropan-1-amine, is used for carbon capture. A model of the capture system is developed in Aspen Plus, which is used to develop a reduced-order model by using ALAMO, a machine learning software. In addition, a reduced model of the CO 2 compression system with a dehydration unit is also considered. The integrated system is used for NPV optimization by using the Python-based PYOMO platform. The PCC process is analyzed for three configurations-conventional packed bed, rotating packed bed (RPB), and a combination of RPB and direct contact cooler. The NPV optimization is performed for 14 regional markets by considering year-long clustered and continuous locational marginal price data with a 1 h interval. Optimization results show that the PCC can achieve 90% CO 2 capture with a positive NPV for six regions. Sensitivity studies conducted by using the PCC configurations indicate that the process is economically feasible for 9 regions out of 14 regional electricity markets with NPV values in the range of 33−540 $MM.

cabon capture↗

DOE OSTI2024

Timelike Compton Scattering from a longitudinally polarised target with CLAS12 at Jefferson Lab

Explorations into the internal dynamics of hadrons are constantly evolving, and the requirement for experimental results to verify theoretical models of hadron structure is paramount. A key area in this field is the study of Generalised Parton Distributions (GPDs), which are functions used to model the momenta of quarks and gluons within hadrons, and the methods to access GPDs experimentally. One such scattering process that allows access to these is Timelike Compton Scattering. TCS complements existing Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering experiments and allows investigation into the universality of GPDs through access to the real and imaginary parts of the parton helicity independent GPD Hq via beam spin asymmetries (BSA), and it provides novel access to the real and imaginary parts of the parton helicity dependent GPD ˜Hq through target polarisation asymmetries (TSA). This thesis work presents a comparative study with the first published BSA for TCS at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab), alongside a first time extraction of a Target Spin Asymmetry with the Summer 2022 data taking run. JLab hosts the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) which provides a 12 GeV electron beam to four experimental halls. Hall-B contains the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer, which took data across three run periods on a longitudinally polarised NH3 and ND3 fixed target from 2022-2023, to extract measurements of electron-proton scattering, from which a TCS signal could be extracted. The thesis discusses work done to understand and eliminate contributions from the non-/low-polarised nuclear background, testing pre-established cuts to eliminate pion background from a dilepton (e+e-) final state and modifying them as needed for the new experimental run, and attempts to hone in on a clean TCS signal from which to extract the two asymmetry observables. A comparison with existing BSA results was performed; however, the statistical errors are too large to draw a significant conclusion as to whether there is agreement across each bin. More data is needed for a multidimensionally binned extraction. A proof of principle was achieved in the TSA measurements, with two out of four kinematic bins showing preliminary agreement in shape with theoretical values. Again, the errors are significant due to the contributions from the nuclear background. To support these conclusions, a further study was done, which takes into account an estimate of the asymmetries with the full available dataset (this thesis is based only on data taken in the summer set; at the time of writing processing was still being conducted for the final two datasets), as well as an estimate including additional future experiment days that were awarded in July 2024. Additional work was done on a secondary project exploring the feasibility of measuring TCS at the upcoming Electron Ion Collider, supporting the design proposal for the detector for the first interaction region and giving a positive outlook for the future of these types of measurements beyond JLab.

Gates, Kayleigh [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing Impacts of Dry Coal Feeding in High Pressure Oxy-Coal Combustion Systems

Reaction Engineering International (REI) has managed a team of experts from the University of Utah, Southeast University (SEU) in Nanjing, China, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Corrosion Management Ltd. (C-M), Praxair, and Brigham Young University (BYU) to investigate dry pulverized coal feeding for pressurized oxy-coal combustion. Dry feed firing systems for entrained flow, pressurized, oxy-coal combustors have not been well developed, although related technologies have been used in the Shell Gasification Process and for pressurized fluid bed combustion. DOE-funded research recently completed at REI and the University of Utah focused on characterizing impacts of high temperatures and pressures in oxy-coal combustion systems. For high pressure combustion, that research used a coal slurry feed into a 17 bar pressurized combustor. As a consequence of that research, it was identified that fuel feeding and firing system flexibility are challenges that require attention. Based on that experience, the approach of using a coal slurry feed system leads to challenges in producing consistent atomization of the slurry, which causes burnout problems, especially at high pressures. In addition, slurry atomization processes may be difficult to scale to sizes appropriate for practical commercial use. Dry pressurized coal burner systems, on the other hand, have the potential to yield efficiency gains, improve flexibility and facilitate applications at larger scales. Experimental work was conducted at the University of Utah Industrial Combustion and Gasification Research Facility as well as the 100 kW pressurized oxy-coal combustor (POC) facility at Brigham Young University. Mechanism development and CFD-based combustion and dense-phase flow modeling were performed at REI. Successful completion of the project objectives has resulted in the following key deliverables: 1) Design and prototype of a pressurized pulverized coal feeding and oxy-firing system 2) Data from a 100kW, pressurized (15 bar) entrained flow reactor with a dry feeding delivery and burner system that describes flame characteristics, radiative heat flux profiles, carbon burnout, along with characteristics of ash aerosols, fouling, and slagging. 3) Validated and transportable models that describe the relevant conditions in pressurized oxy-combustion systems and that can be used for scale-up and optimization. 4) Principles to guide design of high pressure, pilot-scale and full-scale coal oxy-firing systems. 5) Assessment of pressurized oxy-combustion impacts on key parameters relevant to oxy-coal fired utility boilers such as coal devolatilization, char oxidation, mineral matter transformation, deposition, and corrosion. The experimental data, pressurized oxy-firing system principles, and process mechanisms provided by this work can be used by electric utilities, boiler OEMs, equipment suppliers, design firms, software vendors, consultants and government agencies to assess the use of high temperature and high pressure oxy-combustion in current research and to guide development of new oxy-coal boiler designs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing Impacts of Dry Coal Feeding in High Pressure Oxy-Coal Combustion Systems

Reaction Engineering International (REI) has managed a team of experts from the University of Utah, Southeast University (SEU) in Nanjing, China, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Corrosion Management Ltd. (C-M), Praxair, and Brigham Young University (BYU) to investigate dry pulverized coal feeding for pressurized oxy-coal combustion. Dry feed firing systems for entrained flow, pressurized, oxy-coal combustors have not been well developed, although related technologies have been used in the Shell Gasification Process and for pressurized fluid bed combustion. DOE-funded research recently completed at REI and the University of Utah focused on characterizing impacts of high temperatures and pressures in oxy-coal combustion systems. For high pressure combustion, that research used a coal slurry feed into a 17 bar pressurized combustor. As a consequence of that research, it was identified that fuel feeding and firing system flexibility are challenges that require attention. Based on that experience, the approach of using a coal slurry feed system leads to challenges in producing consistent atomization of the slurry, which causes burnout problems, especially at high pressures. In addition, slurry atomization processes may be difficult to scale to sizes appropriate for practical commercial use. Dry pressurized coal burner systems, on the other hand, have the potential to yield efficiency gains, improve flexibility and facilitate applications at larger scales. Experimental work was conducted at the University of Utah Industrial Combustion and Gasification Research Facility as well as the 100 kW pressurized oxy-coal combustor (POC) facility at Brigham Young University. Mechanism development and CFD-based combustion and dense-phase flow modeling were performed at REI. Successful completion of the project objectives has resulted in the following key deliverables: 1) Design and prototype of a pressurized pulverized coal feeding and oxy-firing system 2) Data from a 100kW, pressurized (15 bar) entrained flow reactor with a dry feeding delivery and burner system that describes flame characteristics, radiative heat flux profiles, carbon burnout, along with characteristics of ash aerosols, fouling, and slagging. 3) Validated and transportable models that describe the relevant conditions in pressurized oxy-combustion systems and that can be used for scale-up and optimization. 4) Principles to guide design of high pressure, pilot-scale and full-scale coal oxy-firing systems. 5) Assessment of pressurized oxy-combustion impacts on key parameters relevant to oxy-coal fired utility boilers such as coal devolatilization, char oxidation, mineral matter transformation, deposition, and corrosion. The experimental data, pressurized oxy-firing system principles, and process mechanisms provided by this work can be used by electric utilities, boiler OEMs, equipment suppliers, design firms, software vendors, consultants and government agencies to assess the use of high temperature and high pressure oxy-combustion in current research and to guide development of new oxy-coal boiler designs.

pressurized oxy-coal combustion, sub-micron ash ae↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Impacts of Dry Coal Feeding in High Pressure Oxy-Coal Combustion Systems

Reaction Engineering International (REI) has managed a team of experts from the University of Utah, Southeast University (SEU) in Nanjing, China, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Corrosion Management Ltd. (C-M), Praxair, and Brigham Young University (BYU) to investigate dry pulverized coal feeding for pressurized oxy-coal combustion. Dry feed firing systems for entrained flow, pressurized, oxy-coal combustors have not been well developed, although related technologies have been used in the Shell Gasification Process and for pressurized fluid bed combustion. DOE-funded research recently completed at REI and the University of Utah focused on characterizing impacts of high temperatures and pressures in oxy-coal combustion systems. For high pressure combustion, that research used a coal slurry feed into a 17 bar pressurized combustor. As a consequence of that research, it was identified that fuel feeding and firing system flexibility are challenges that require attention. Based on that experience, the approach of using a coal slurry feed system leads to challenges in producing consistent atomization of the slurry, which causes burnout problems, especially at high pressures. In addition, slurry atomization processes may be difficult to scale to sizes appropriate for practical commercial use. Dry pressurized coal burner systems, on the other hand, have the potential to yield efficiency gains, improve flexibility and facilitate applications at larger scales. Experimental work was conducted at the University of Utah Industrial Combustion and Gasification Research Facility as well as the 100 kW pressurized oxy-coal combustor (POC) facility at Brigham Young University. Mechanism development and CFD-based combustion and dense-phase flow modeling were performed at REI. Successful completion of the project objectives has resulted in the following key deliverables: 1) Design and prototype of a pressurized pulverized coal feeding and oxy-firing system 2) Data from a 100kW, pressurized (15 bar) entrained flow reactor with a dry feeding delivery and burner system that describes flame characteristics, radiative heat flux profiles, carbon burnout, along with characteristics of ash aerosols, fouling, and slagging. 3) Validated and transportable models that describe the relevant conditions in pressurized oxy-combustion systems and that can be used for scale-up and optimization. 4) Principles to guide design of high pressure, pilot-scale and full-scale coal oxy-firing systems. 5) Assessment of pressurized oxy-combustion impacts on key parameters relevant to oxy-coal fired utility boilers such as coal devolatilization, char oxidation, mineral matter transformation, deposition, and corrosion. The experimental data, pressurized oxy-firing system principles, and process mechanisms provided by this work can be used by electric utilities, boiler OEMs, equipment suppliers, design firms, software vendors, consultants and government agencies to assess the use of high temperature and high pressure oxy-combustion in current research and to guide development of new oxy-coal boiler designs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of the muon spin precession frequency using the straw tracking detectors at the Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment

The measurement of the anomalous magnetic dipole moment of the muon ($a_{\mu}$) has long stood as an excellent precision test of the Standard Model (SM). The Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment has recently finished data-taking and in July 2023 published its latest determination of $a_\mu$ with a world-leading precision of 0.2\,ppm. In this publication, it surpassed the systematic uncertainty goal defined in the TDR. The analyses of a dataset approximately four times larger than this recent publication is now underway. The principle measurement of the Muon g-2 experiment measures $a_{\mu}$ by taking the ratio of two frequencies; the anomalous precession frequency ($\omega_a$) and the muon-weighted magnetic field of the experiment's storage ring measured from the precession frequency of protons in water using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) probes. In all publications to date, $\omega_a$ has been determined using energy deposits in the 24 calorimeters. However, the Fermilab experiment has t wo straw tracker detectors measuring the time and momentum of charged particles which can in principle also be used to to measure $\omega_a$ and such a measurement can provide an invaluable cross-check of the calorimeter result with different, and reduced, systematic uncertainties. This thesis presents the first (blinded) determination of $\omega_a$ using just charged tracks from the straw tracking detectors as opposed to calorimeter energy deposits. This analysis was undertaken using the Run-2/3 dataset which represents approximately 25\% of the final dataset. A total uncertainty of 2.19\,ppm on $\omega_a$ was obtained which is dominated by the statistical uncertainty of 2.16\,ppm. Additionally two new methodologies important to the analysis of the straw tracking data have been developed: one to better determine the track arrival time ($t_0$) and one to determine the level of pileup in the tracking detectors. The new $t_0$ algorithm which incorporates angular information improves t he resolution on the determination of the $t_0$ by a factor of two and results in 19\% more tracks being successfully reconstructed. The data from the trackers is also used to determine the beam profile that weights the magnetic field in the determination of $a_\mu$ and in determining several of the systematic uncertainties in the calorimeter-based $\omega_a$ analysis. A detailed study of the impact of the internal alignment of the tracker, the $t_0$ and pileup on the determination of the beam position was undertaken and propagated through to an uncertainty in the $\omega_a$ determination. These uncertainties were used in the Fermilab Muon g-2 experiment's recent publication in Phys. Rev. Lett.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unveiling the Finite Temperature Physics of Hydrogen Chains via Auxiliary Field Quantum Monte Carlo

The ability to accurately predict the finite temperature properties and phase diagrams of realistic quantum solids is central to uncovering new phases and engineering materials with novel properties ripe for device applications. Nonetheless, there remain comparatively few many-body techniques capable of elucidating the finite temperature physics of solids from first principles. Here, we take a significant step toward developing such a technique by generalizing our previous, exact fully ab initio finite temperature Auxiliary Field Quantum Monte Carlo (FT-AFQMC) method to model periodic solids and employing it to uncover the finite temperature physics of periodic hydrogen chains. Our chains’ unit cells consist of 10 hydrogen atoms modeled in a minimal basis, and we sample 5 k-points from the first Brillouin zone to arrive at a supercell consisting of 50 orbitals and 50 electrons. Based upon our calculations of these chains’ many-body energies, free energies, entropies, heat capacities, double and natural occupancies, and charge and spin correlation functions, we outline their metal–insulator and magnetic ordering as a function of both H–H bond distance and temperature. At low temperatures approaching the ground state, we observe both metal–insulator and ferromagnetic–antiferromagnetic crossovers at bond lengths between 0.5 and 0.75 Å. We then demonstrate how this low-temperature ordering evolves into a metallic phase with decreasing magnetic order at higher temperatures. In order to contextualize our results, we compare the features we observe to those previously seen in one-dimensional, half-filled Hubbard models at finite temperature and in ground state hydrogen chains. Interestingly, we identify signatures of the Pomeranchuk effect in hydrogen chains for the first time and show that spin and charge excitations that typically arise at distinct temperatures in the Hubbard model are indistinguishably coupled in these systems. Beyond qualitatively revealing the many-body phase behavior of hydrogen chains in a numerically exact manner without invoking the phaseless approximation, our efforts shed light on the further theoretical developments that will be required to construct the phase diagrams of the more complex transition metal, lanthanide, and actinide solids of longstanding interest to physicists.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Achieving clean production with nanostructured coated milling tools dry machining low carbon steel

The advancement of clean production using nanostructured materials in subtractive manufacturing processes has focused on replacing the use of liquid lubrication with solid lubricants coated to conventional cutting tools machining low carbon steel (~ 0.2 wt. % carbon). However, little is known about the wear mechanisms that dominate such tools when coated with functional graded nanostructured coatings. The present study follows an international standard for characterizing such wear (ISO 8688) but uses advanced measurement techniques such as x-ray fluorescence technology to measure the diffusion of chemical species from tool to workpiece and vice versa, that contributes to tool wear with the view to enhance the principles of cleaner production. The results show that when commercially-available tools coated with the appropriate functionally graded industrial coating, diffusion does not take place and creates an effective chemical barrier during machining. The experimental methods used in the study include machining workpieces using a CNC milling machine, tachometer for measuring spindle speed, dynamometer for measuring cutting forces, infra-red camera for measuring cutting temperatures, chemical species diffusion wear using x-ray florescence detector, and an optical microscope for measuring tool wear. Coupled with the physical measurement of wear, it is concluded that mechanical wear dominates the milling of a low carbon steel and that thermal properties of the coatings do not correlate with such wear. It is also concluded that flank wear as a function of volume of workpiece removed and machining duration (machining index) is a sound method for assessing the transition of the stages of wear during clean machining operations. The present study not only has implication for the design of better cutting tools, but also advances dry machining processes that eliminate the use of liquid lubricants making subtractive production processes cleaner. The main conclusions drawn from this study show that coated tools have a longer life under dry conditions compared to uncoated tools and that there is no correlation between coating properties and tool wear. In conclusion, diffusion of chemical species into the cut chips did not occur because of the lack of thermally induced chemical wear of the cutting tool and that wear is caused by the gradual erosion of the flank face due to the chip abrading the cutting tool.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations

Abstract. Climate model output emulation has long been attempted to support impact research, mainly to fill in gaps in the scenario space. Given the computational cost of running coupled earth system models (ESMs), which are usually the domain of supercomputers and require on the order of days to weeks to complete a century-long simulation, only a handful of different scenarios are usually chosen to externally force ESM simulations. An effective emulator, able to run on standard computers in times of the order of minutes rather than days could therefore be used to derive climate information under scenarios that were not run by ESMs. Lately, the necessity of accounting for internal variability has also made the availability of initial-condition ensembles, under a specific scenario, important, further increasing the computational demand. At least so far, emulators have been limited to simplified ESM-like output, either seasonal, annual, or decadal averages of basic quantities, like temperature and precipitation, often emulated independently of one another. With this work, we propose a more comprehensive solution to ESM output emulation. Our emulator, STITCHES, uses existing archives of earth system models' (ESMs) scenario experiments to construct ESM-like output under new scenarios or enrich existing initial-condition ensembles, which is what other emulators also aim to do. Importantly, however, STITCHES' output has the same characteristics of the ESM output it sets out to emulate: multivariate, spatially resolved, and high frequency, representing both the forced component and the internal variability around it. STITCHES extends the idea of time sampling – according to which climate outcomes are stratified by the global warming level at which they manifest themselves, irrespective of the scenario and time at which they occur – to the construction of a continuous history of ESM-like output over the whole 21st century, consistent with a 21st-century trajectory of global surface air temperature (GSAT) derived from the scenario that has been chosen as the target of the emulation. STITCHES does so by first splitting the target GSAT trajectory into decade-long windows, then matching each window in turn to a decade-long window within an existing model simulation from the available scenario runs according to its proximity to the target in absolute size of the temperature anomaly and its rate of change. A look-up table is therefore created of a sequence of existing experiment–time-window combinations that, when stitched together, create a GSAT trajectory “similar” to the target. Importantly, we can then stitch together much more than GSAT from these windows, i.e., any output that the ESM has saved for these existing experiment–time-window combinations, at any frequency and spatial scale available in its archive. We show that the stitching does not introduce artifacts in the great majority of cases (we look at temperature and precipitation at monthly frequency and on the native grid of the ESM and at an index of ENSO activity, the Southern Oscillation Index). This is true even if the criteria for the identification of the decades to be stitched together are chosen to work for a smoothed time series of annual GSAT, a result we expect given the larger amount of noise affecting most other variables at finer spatial scales and higher frequencies, which therefore are more “forgiving” of the stitching. We successfully test the method's performance over many ESMs and scenarios. Only a few exceptions surface, but these less-than-optimal outcomes are always associated with a scarcity of the archived simulations from which we can gather the decade-long windows that form the building blocks of the emulated time series. In the great majority of cases, STITCHES' performance is satisfactory according to metrics that reward consistency in trends, interannual and inter-ensemble variance, and autocorrelation structure of the time series stitched together. The method therefore can be used to create ESM-like output according to new scenarios, on the basis of a trajectory of GSAT produced according to that scenario, which could be easily obtained by a simple climate model. It can also be used to increase the size of existing initial-condition ensembles. There are aspects of our emulator that will immediately disqualify it for specific applications, like when climate information is needed whose characteristics result from accumulated quantities over windows of times longer than those used as pieces by STITCHES, droughts longer than a decade for example. But for many applications, we argue that a stitched product can satisfy the climate information needs of impact researchers. STITCHES cannot emulate ESM output from scenarios that result in GSAT trajectories outside of the envelope available in the archive, nor can it emulate trajectories with shapes different from existing ones (overshoots with negative derivative, for example). Therefore, the size and characteristics of the available archives of ESM output are the principal limitations for STITCHES' deployment. Thus, we argue for the possibility of designing scenario experiments within, for example, the next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project according to new principles, relieved of the need to produce a number of similar trajectories that vary only in radiative forcing strength but more strategically covering the space of temperature anomalies and rates of change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗