Interannual variability and climatic sensitivity of global wildfire activity
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Spring Dust in Colorado Plateau: Transport Pathways and Interannual Variability Derived From Two Decades of MERRA‐2 Reanalysis
Spring dust storms in the U.S. Southwest significantly impact environmental and human systems, yet their climatological patterns and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using two decades of MERRA-2 reanalysis data and self-organizing map clustering, we identified four distinct dust transport pathways from surrounding and remote deserts for the top 10% of spring dust events impacting the Colorado Plateau: (a) intense southwesterly near-surface transport where eastward upward transport is blocked by topography, (b) substantial remote transport plus weaker surface emissions, (c) moderate southwesterly transport with stronger upper-level transport, and (d) rare northwesterly pattern linked to the Great Basin sources, which accounts for 38%, 14%, 37%, and 11% of total events, respectively. The frequency and intensity of these events strongly correlate with large-scale climate variability, with increased dust events during La Niña. Our results provide a robust framework for improving seasonal dust forecasts and understanding future dust dynamics under climate change.
aerosol transport↗
Interannual variability and trends of summertime PM2.5-based air quality in the Intermountain West
Abstract Summertime air quality is a growing public health concern in the populated region of Northern Utah. Whereas winter air pollution is highly linked with local atmospheric temperature inversions associated with upper atmospheric high-pressure and radiational cooling in valleys, the relationship between climate factors and the frequency of poor air quality during summer is still unknown. Analyzing the last 20 years of data, we demonstrated that summertime unhealthy days (as defined by PM2.5 air quality index level) in Northern Utah highly correlate with the number of dry-hot days, wildfire size, and an upper atmospheric ridge over the Northwestern United States. The persistent atmospheric ridge enhances lightning-caused fire burned areas in northwestern states and then transports the wildfire smoke toward Northern Utah. Similarly, climate model simulations confirm observational findings, such as an increasing trend of the upper atmospheric ridge and summertime dry days in the northwestern states. Such metrics developed in this study could be used to establish longer-term monitoring and seasonal forecasting for air quality and its compounding factors, which is currently limited to forecasting products for only several days.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models
Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.
Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗
Interannual Variability of Zonal Mean Temperature, Water Vapor, and Clouds in the Tropical Tropopause Layer
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Aodhan Sweeney↗
Seasonality and interannual variability of CH 4 fluxes from the eastern Amazon Basin inferred from atmospheric mole fraction profiles
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Luana S. Basso↗
Interannual variability of Martian weather
Pressure, temperature, imaging, and wind data from the Mutch Memorial Station, the Viking lander located in Mars' subtropics, are used to demonstrate the existence of two disctinct regimes of northern hemisphere winter weather on Mars. One of these regime is characterized by one or more intense global dust storms in which the optical depth reaches about 5 over most of the planet. During these events, traveling baroclinic waves of the winter hemisphere are suppressed. In the other regime, there are no global dust storms, but traveling baroclinic waves are active, and high winds associated with these storms raise large quantities of dust which remain confined to a shallow layer in the northern hemisphere. The strongest winds at the Mutch Memorial Station occur during intense storms in the latter regime.
Leovy, C. B.↗
Interannual variability study of the earth radiation budget from Nimbus 7 monthly data
The broadband data set on the earth radiation budget recorded by Nimbus-7 instrumentation from 1978-84 is summarized, along with the results of several statistical evaluations. The emitted longwave radiation (W/sq m), albedo and net radiation (W/sq m) are tabulated in terms of yearly means and summer and winter departures from those means. Global maps are also provided for 6-yr averaged values of the same parameters. The largest variabilities were observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and Indonesia, indicating the extent of annual variations of the size of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
Smith, L. D.↗
Stationary planetary waves, blocking, and interannual variability
The persistence of planetary wave anomalies and their effect on climate are studied. Consideration is given to the existence of suitable resonances, the effect of stationary waves on mean flow, the relation between tropical heating and forcing high-latitude stationary waves, and the effect of El Nino on midlatitude stationary waves. The ability of a linearized GCM to represent stationary wave patterns is evaluated by comparing the data with GCM data patterns. The role of free Rossby waves in large, transient planetary-wave anomalies is discussed.
Lindzen, R. S.↗
Interannual variability of Mars' south polar cap
Published observational data on the seasonal recession of the south polar cap on Mars (covering the period 1903-1977) are compiled in tables and graphs and analyzed statistically. The basic data set (photographic observations obtained at Lowell Observatory) of Fischbacher et al. (1960) and James and Lumme (1982) and the reduction procedures described by Baum and Martin (1973) are employed, and Viking data from 1977 are used for comparison; the early onset (relative to the mean) of the 1956 recession is characterized in detail. A list of photographically documented large dust storms is provided, and it is suggested that in years with early spring storms, recession may be slower than in years without such storms.
James, Philip B.↗
The interannual variability of atmospheric water vapor on Mars
The acquisition of several north-south scans during the Survey/Completion Mission by the Mars Atmospheric Water Detector (MAWD) onboard Viking Orbiter 1 make it possible to compare water vapor column abundance during northern spring and early summer seasons from three successive Mars years. All three years exhibit very similar seasonal trends. Differences between years tend to be localized, and not regional, with maximum differences between years occurring in the same general areas that the day-to-day variability of water vapor as observed by MAWD is large. It is suggested that the observed year-to-year differences are also artifacts of clouds in the MAWD field of view and that there is remarkably little difference in the water cycle during northern spring and early summer, despite very different dust storm episodes during the preceding three years.
Zurek, Richard W.↗
The annual and interannual variabilities of precipitable water, surface wind speed, and sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific
The Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SSMR) provided simultaneous measurements of three geophysical parameters, each of which describing a certain aspect of the evolution of the 1982-1983 ENSO: the sea-surface temperature (T), precipitable water (W), and surface-wind speed (U). In this paper, values derived from the SSMR were compared with in situ measurements from ships, research buoys, and operational island stations in the tropical Pacific between January 1980 and October 1983, demonstrating the temporal and spatial coherence of the SSMR measurements. The results show that the variabilities of the surface convergence, sea surface temperature, and precipitable water are related. It was found that W anomalies were not always colocated with T anomalies, and that W anomalies were often associated with negative U anomalies, interpreted as surface convergence.
Liu, W. Timothy↗
The interannual variability of polar stratospheric clouds and related parameters in Antarctica during September and October
Antarctic polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) sightings by the orbiting SAM II sensor during September and October show a pronounced quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal, and October sightings have increased markedly over the past 10 years in years of westerly QBO phase. The QBO in PSC frequency is likely to affect the rate of Antarctic heterogeneous chemical processes and, hence, ozone depletion. Studies of the observed long-term temperature trend suggest that the decadal PSC trend probably results from the ozone decline, through its effect on stratospheric heating rates. A more detailed analysis of data from 1986 to 1987 shows that there were more PSCs in 1987, and that they persisted much later into the spring season as compared to 1986. Qualitatively similar behavior was found for the OClO column abundances and 18-km ozone depletion observed at McMurdo Station during these 2 years. These observations suggest that both the intensity and duration of heterogeneous chemical processes are likely greater during colder OBQ-westerly phase years.
Poole, Lamont R.↗
Interannual variability of the earth's climate during the last decade as observed by the Nimbus-7 spacecraft
A set of earth radiation budget observations spanning the time period 1979 to 1987 is considered. A diurnally averaged eight year top-of-the-atmosphere net radiation field is analyzed along with a zonally averaged radiation budget. Variability in the net radiation due to changes in the clear sky shortwave and longwave radiation fields or changes in the total cloudiness distribution and the cloud properties is assessed, along with those radiation-budget parameters key to the earth's heat balance.
Kyle, H. Lee↗
Interannual variability of planet-encircling dust storms on Mars
A recent review of earth-based telescopic observations of Mars together with Viking orbiter and lander data are employed to estimate the frequency of occurrence of planet-encircling dust storms over the past century and to test whether the period spanned by the Mariner 9 and Viking missions to Mars is representative of the decades prior to 1950. Both spacecraft and earth-based observations suggest that planet-encircling dust storms on Mars occur during a 'dust storm season' in southern spring and summer. Viking data show that planet-encircling dust storms could have occurred in the past on Mars without being detected from earth during years in which Mars was far from earth during the dust storm season. Planet-encircling storms were absent during the dust storm seasons monitored during several favorable oppositions prior to 1956 and after 1986. The change of a planet-encircling dust storm occurring in any arbitrary Mars year is estimated to be approximately one in three, if this occurrence is random from year to year and yet restricted seasonally to southern spring and summer.
Zurek, Richard W.↗
Spectral analyses, climatology, and interannual variability of Nimbus-7 TOMS version 6 total column ozone
This reference publication presents selected results from space-time spectral analyses of 13 years of version 6 daily global ozone fields from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). One purpose is to illustrate more quantitatively the well-known richness of structure and variation in total ozone. A second purpose is to provide, for use by modelers and for comparison with other analysts' work, quantitative measures of zonal waves 1, 2, 3, and medium-scale waves 4-7 in total ozone. Their variations throughout the year and at a variety of latitudes are presented, from equatorial to polar regions. The 13-year averages are given, along with selected individual years which illustrate year-to-year variability. The largest long wave amplitudes occur in the polar winters and early springs of each hemisphere, and are related to strong wave amplification during major warning events. In low attitudes total ozone wave amplitudes are an order of magnitude smaller than at high latitudes. However, TOMS fields contain a number of equatorial dynamical features, including Rossby-gravity and Kelvin waves.
Stanford, J. L.↗
Observation of 3-6 day meridional wind oscillations over the tropical Pacific, 1973-1992: Vertical structure and interannual variability
Rawinsonde data from tropical Pacific stations were examined for westward-propagating 3-6-day meridional wind oscillations in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, 1973-1992. Four types were identified from cross-spectrum and principal component analysis. (1) The dominant oscillation, near 250 mb, had a period slightly greater than 5 days, zonal wavenumber 4-6, and modified Rossby-gravity structure near the date line. (2) In the western Pacific lower troposphere there was broadband activity with short zonal scale, coupled to upper-tropospheric waves in NH summer. (3) In the central Pacific, during NH autumn, there was a well-defined approximately 4 1/2-day oscillation with maximum amplitude in the lower troposphere and baroclinic phase tilt above. The vertical structure suggested coupling to deep tropical convection; this interpretation was supported by correlation of meridional wind with antisymmetric outgoing longwave radiation. (4) In the stratosphere, Rossby-gravity waves had periods less than or equal to 4 days and zonal wavenumber 3-4. Unlike tropospheric waves, these disturbances were coherent in a shallow layer, largest in west phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and annual cycle (NH winter-spring).
Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
Interannual Variability of the North Polar Vortex in the Lower Stratosphere During the UARS Mission
Northern winters since the 1991 launch of UARS are compared to earlier years (1978 -1991) with respect to the potential for formation of Polar Stratospheric Clouds and for isolation of the north polar vortex. Daily NMC temperature minima at 465 K late in the winter of 1993-94 and again in December 1994 were the lowest values experienced during these times of the year (since 1978). Northern PV gradients were unusually strong in 1991-92 prior to late January and throughout the winter in both 1992-93 and 1994-95. Of all northern winters since 1978, 1994-95 with its early extended cold spell and persistently strong PV gradients most resembled the Antarctic winter lower stratosphere. Even so, temperatures was never as low, nor was the polar vortex as large, as during a typical southern winter. Judged by daily temperature minima and PV gradients at 465 K, meteorological conditions in the Arctic winter lower stratosphere during the UARS period were more conducive to vortex ozone loss by heterogeneous chemistry than in most previous winters since 1978-79.
Zurek, R. W.↗