Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Integrated assessment model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The surprisingly inexpensive cost of state-driven emission control strategies

Traditionally, analysis of the costs of cutting greenhouse gas emissions has assumed that governments would implement idealized, optimal policies such as uniform economy-wide carbon taxes. Yet actual policies in the real world, especially in large federal governments, are often highly heterogeneous and vary in political support and administrative capabilities within a country. While the benefits of heterogeneous action have been discussed widely for experimentation and leadership, little is known about its costs. Focusing on the United States, we represent plausible variation (by more than a factor of 3) in the stringency of state-led climate policy in a process-based integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA). For a wide array of national decarbonization targets, we find that the nationwide cost from heterogeneous subnational policies is only one-tenth higher than nationally uniform policies. Such results hinge on two critical technologies (advanced biofuels and electricity) for which inter-state trade ameliorates the economic efficiencies that might arise with heterogeneous action.

Peng, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO 2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO 2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.

climate-change mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2021

The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy

Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25–80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5–5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO 2 /kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO 2 in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO 2 in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO 2 /year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035

Under the next cycle of target setting under the Paris Agreement, countries will be updating and submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) over the coming year. To this end, there is a growing need for the United States to assess potential pathways toward a new, maximally ambitious 2035 NDC. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, across all sectors and gases. Additionally, we develop a high-ambition scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies from these actors. We find that existing policies can reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44% (with a range of 37% to 52%) by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. The high-ambition scenario can deliver net GHG reductions up to 65% (with a range of 59% to 71%) by 2035 under accelerated implementation of federal regulations and investments, as well as state policies such as renewable portfolio standards, EV sales targets, and zero-emission appliance standards. This level of reductions would provide a basis for continued progress toward the country’s 2050 net-zero emissions goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO 2 reduction beyond the Paris Commitment

China is challenged with the simultaneous goals of improving air quality and mitigating climate change. The “Beautiful China” strategy, launched by the Chinese government in 2020, requires that all cities in China attain 35 μg/m 3 or below for annual mean concentration of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) by 2035. Meanwhile, China adopts a portfolio of low-carbon policies to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged in the Paris Agreement. Previous studies demonstrated the co-benefits to air pollution reduction from implementing low-carbon energy policies. Pathways for China to achieve dual targets of both air quality and CO 2 mitigation, however, have not been comprehensively explored. Here, we couple an integrated assessment model and an air quality model to evaluate air quality in China through 2035 under the NDC scenario and an alternative scenario (Co-Benefit Energy [CBE]) with enhanced low-carbon policies. Results indicate that some Chinese cities cannot meet the PM 2.5 target under the NDC scenario by 2035, even with the strictest end-of-pipe controls. Achieving the air quality target would require further reduction in emissions of multiple air pollutants by 6 to 32%, driving additional 22% reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to the NDC scenario. Results show that the incremental health benefit from improved air quality of CBE exceeds 8 times the additional costs of CO 2 mitigation, attributed particularly to the cost-effective reduction in household PM 2.5 exposure. The additional low-carbon energy polices required for China’s air quality targets would lay an important foundation for its deep decarbonization aligned with the 2 °C global temperature target.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ambitious efforts on residual emissions can reduce CO 2 removal and lower peak temperatures in a net-zero future

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is expected to play a critical role in reaching net zero CO 2 and especially net zero greenhouse gase (GHG) emissions. However, the extent to which the role of CDR in counterbalancing residual emissions can be reduced has not yet been fully quantified. Here, we use a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model to develop a 'Maximum Sectoral Effort' scenario which features global emissions policies alongside ambitious effort across sectors to reduce their gross GHG emissions and thereby the CDR required for offsets. We find that these efforts can reduce CDR by over 50% globally, increase both the relative and absolute role of the land sink in storing carbon, and more evenly distribute CDR contributions and associated side-effects across regions compared to CO 2 pricing alone. Furthermore, the lower cumulative CO 2 and nonCO 2 emissions leads to earlier and lower peak temperatures. Emphasizing reductions in gross, in addition to net emissions while disallowing the substitution of less durable CDR for offsets can therefore reduce both physical and transition risks associated with high CDR deployment and temperature overshoot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM

Agriculture yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally (via international commodity markets). How important to U.S. agriculture are domestic changes due to climate compared to those occurring externally? Here we show that potential direct impacts to United States agriculture have financial impacts on U.S. producers that are roughly similar in magnitude but opposite in sign to impacts on U.S. producers due to changes in other parts of the world. This finding is robust across application of a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts applied to a multi-sector global integrated assessment model. Therefore, when examining country-specific impacts, it is necessary to model both the domestic and international impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generic Aquifer Component Training Dataset

Training dataset for the Generic Aquifer Component of NRAP-Open-IAM. Consists of the results of 62,500 STOMP-CO2 simulations of brine and CO2 leakage of varying rates and salinity into aquifers of varying thickness, depth, porosity, permeability, anisotropy and initial salinity. Described in report https://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-32590.pdf

Aquifer Impact Model↗
DOE OSTI2022

rfasst: An R tool to estimate air pollution impacts on health and agriculture

Existing scientific literature shows that health and agricultural impacts attributable to air pollution are significant and should be considered in the integrated analysis of human and Earth-system interactions. The implementation of policies that affect the power sector, the composition of the vehicle fleet or the investments and deployment of different energy sources will in turn result in different levels of air pollution. Even though the various methodologies for estimating the impacts of air pollution, such as exposure-response functions, are extensively applied by the scientific community, they are normally not included in integrated assessment modeling outputs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗
DOE OSTI2020

NRAP Toolkit Screening for CarbonSAFE Illinois - Macon County

In this report we take stratigraphic data from the ISGS-led Macon County Phase 2 CarbonSAFE’s proposed site in Christian County, Illinois, and conduct reservoir simulations to generate pressure and CO 2 saturation plume data as a function of time. We then use this plume data along with the stratigraphic data as inputs to the NRAP Open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to evaluate project risks. For this report we focus on the probabilistic risk associated with hypothetical leakage of CO 2 and brine along the injection well and one monitoring well. We also study the resulting impact to two overlying aquifers, which could be used to inform monitoring technology selection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of Geologic Storage Reservoir Management to Support Risk Mitigation Evaluation

This report provides a detailed description of a set of numerical simulations that represent reservoir behavior over time in response to different operational decision scenarios for detection of potential leakage and reduction or avoidance of leakage impact at a hypothetical geological carbon storage (GCS) site. These simulations serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), and a demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for evaluation of mitigation strategies based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming. Four injection scenarios were considered: a constant rate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection case (base case), a case with CO 2 injection rate adjustment, a case with early termination of injection operations, and a case with brine extraction. CO 2 injection operations were controlled to ensure that the pressure transient remains below the defined manageable reservoir fracture pressure, with consideration shown to hypothetical locations within the modeled spatial domain where the overburden was weaker and lower transient pressure increases were allowable. Additionally, a brine extraction alternative was considered as a reservoir management and risk mitigation option to reduce reservoir pressure, steer the plume away from any hypothetical geohazard such as fault as needed, and enhance storage capacity. Such operational actions contribute to risk management overtime. This study explores the potential utility of reservoir management for risk reduction at GCS sites. This study shows that the injection design may modify the time to CO 2 breakthrough at a legacy well; in particular, these results show that brine extraction can add value for mitigating risk both by delaying leakage and reducing pressure build-up. For the scenario considered, both pressure plots and pressure distributions demonstrate that pressure build-up was decreased by 3% with brine extraction. Additionally, extraction of brine afforded enhancement of CO 2 storage capacity by 5% compared to the base case. These findings suggest that brine extraction has substantial potential to steer the risk-related reservoir effects away from known geohazards (e.g., faults and legacy wells) by conducting pressure transient effects and CO 2 plume movement toward the production well. Injection rate adjustment scenarios considered in this study show potential value for managing both reservoir pressure transients and CO 2 plume behavior. Operational actions for reducing injection and/or early termination of injection (as compared to the base case), however, require careful design; tailoring both the extent and timing of injection rate adjustment over the injection and post-injection operational period must be thoroughly planned to balance maximizing storage and minimizing subsurface environmental risk. The study also gives preliminary consideration to the effectiveness that monitoring strategy may play in providing useful information to inform reservoir management decisions for risk reduction. Two types of monitoring were considered: 1) pressure build-up or pressure transient; and 2) potential leakage detection from a CO 2 mass or plume. Four hypothetical legacy wells, two plugged and two abandoned, were placed in the model domain. Monitoring along these wells was measured over time in individual stacked reservoir formations and shale formations to support risk mitigation decisions, especially operational decisions that assisted in risk reduction. These simulations will serve as the basis for a series of GCS leakage risk forecasts that are to be developed using NRAP’s Open-IAM, and demonstration of a simple decision support workflow for comparative assessment of mitigation alternatives based on results of those system model forecasts. This risk assessment and decision support study is forthcoming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

SWP Summary Report for Individual Legacy Well Leakage Risk Analysis at Farnsworth Unit Site: Open Well Scenario

This report summarizes results of the individual legacy well leakage risk analysis of the Farnsworth Unit site (FWU) for Open Well scenario. NRAP tools Integrated Assessment Model for Carbon Storage (NRAP-IAM-CS) and Reservoir Reduced-Order Model Generator (RROMGen) were used (Dilmore et al., 2016; Pawar et al., 2016; King, 2016). This is part one of the additional analysis addressing SWP BP4 Subtask 7.4.1.2: Extend quantitative brine and CO2 leakage calculations (Chu et al., 2020).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway

This analysis takes an integrated, innovative approach to develop plausible, high-ambition pathways through 2035 to inform the third U.S. NDC target setting. This approach combines: (1) an extensive consultation and engagement process with a broad set of federal and subnational stakeholders to build a robust U.S. policy platform; and (2) an open-source, field-leading integrated assessment model focused on the U.S. containing subnational details. The modeling tool assesses existing and possible new policies from both federal and subnational levels to assess the overall emissions reduction potential and the policy pathways to deliver the ambition needed for 2035 and leading on to 2050. In addition, we highlight how different actors can contribute to the needed transition in each sector and showcase successful implementation stories by various subnational actors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of water scarcity on agricultural production and electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa

Incorporating the interdependencies between water, energy and food (WEF) within an integrated approach of planning and management could help nations worldwide to address sustainability concerns. This is a topic of great importance for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where water is a very limited resource. In this study, we develop an analytical framework to analyze the water-energy-food nexus in the MENA region to inform the formulation of integrated strategies for water, energy and food activities. Our approach is based on an integrated assessment model for the MENA region, which explicitly represents WEF sectors within an economic framework, in tandem with a set of relevant scenarios addressing three key dimensions (socioeconomics, climate and water-management). Using this framework, our study analyzes the current and projected status of water resources in the region, and the potential implications for the agriculture and electricity sectors. Our scenarios demonstrate that water scarcity worsens by the end of the 21st century in most MENA countries, mostly due to growing demands. The impacts of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with production projected to drop by 60 percent by 2050 in some countries. On the other hand, and to a lesser extent, water-saving technologies and fuel-switching in the power sector play a key role in mitigating the effects of water scarcity on electricity generation in some parts of the MENA region. Our analysis then underscores the need to reduce the dependence of MENA’s agricultural and energy sectors on water, and transition to renewable energies to reduce water scarcity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗