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DOE OSTI2022

Phase IB study of ziv-aflibercept plus pembrolizumab in patients with advanced solid tumors

Background The combination of antiangiogenic agents with immune checkpoint inhibitors could potentially overcome immune suppression driven by tumor angiogenesis. We report results from a phase IB study of ziv-aflibercept plus pembrolizumab in patients with advanced solid tumors. Methods This is a multicenter phase IB dose-escalation study of the combination of ziv-aflibercept (at 2–4 mg/kg) plus pembrolizumab (at 2 mg/kg) administered intravenously every 2 weeks with expansion cohorts in programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1)/programmed death-ligand 1(PD-L1)-naïve melanoma, renal cell carcinoma (RCC), microsatellite stable colorectal cancer (CRC), and ovarian cancer. The primary objective was to determine maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and recommended dose of the combination. Secondary endpoints included overall response rate (ORR) and overall survival (OS). Exploratory objectives included correlation of clinical efficacy with tumor and peripheral immune population densities. Results Overall, 33 patients were enrolled during dose escalation (n=3) and dose expansion (n=30). No dose-limiting toxicities were reported in the initial dose level. Ziv-aflibercept 4 mg/kg plus pembrolizumab 2 mg/kg every 2 weeks was established as the MTD. Grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 19/33 patients (58%), the most common being hypertension (36%) and proteinuria (18%). ORR in the dose-expansion cohort was 16.7% (5/30, 90% CI 7% to 32%). Complete responses occurred in melanoma (n=2); partial responses occurred in RCC (n=1), mesothelioma (n=1), and melanoma (n=1). Median OS was as follows: melanoma, not reached (NR); RCC, 15.7 months (90% CI 2.5 to 15.7); CRC, 3.3 months (90% CI 0.6 to 3.4); ovarian, 12.5 months (90% CI 3.8 to 13.6); other solid tumors, NR. Activated tumor-infiltrating CD8 T cells at baseline (CD8+PD1+), high CD40L expression, and increased peripheral memory CD8 T cells correlated with clinical response. Conclusion The combination of ziv-aflibercept and pembrolizumab demonstrated an acceptable safety profile with antitumor activity in solid tumors. The combination is currently being studied in sarcoma and anti-PD-1-resistant melanoma. Trial registration number NCT02298959 .

Rahma, Osama E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A radioisotope - enabled reactive transport model for deep vadose zone carbon

In mountainous regions, which constitute the principle source of recharge to major rivers and regional aquifers, infiltration occurs through fractured, partially saturated, weathered bedrock that acts as a boundary layer between saturated aquifers and surface soil. Commonly this deep vadose zone (DVZ) is many meters thick, and yet its role in regulating the generation, retention and mobility of reactive solutes, including nutrients, contaminants and weathering products, is largely unknown. In particular, many of the key reactions that drive the formation of the weathered DVZ and the quality of water moving through it are redox processes, regulated by the availability of organic carbon and oxygen below the soil layer. The role of the DVZ is thus also poorly constrained in the context of carbon stocks and mobility, particularly in lithologies that are naturally high in organic carbon, such as shales. The overarching hypothesis of this study is that upland regions developed in geologic settings with abundant petrogenic carbon store and actively cycle carbon in the weathered DVZ below the soil and above the water table at rates that are significant and currently unconstrained. In order to quantify this cycling, the current study combines novel instrumentation techniques allowing new direct sampling of DVZ systems with advanced numerical reactive transport simulations of carbon transport and transformation. Critically, these simulations will explicitly treat the three isotopes of carbon (the abundant 12C, the stable rare 13C and the radioactive 14C) in a unified framework, thus clearly parsing between the contributions of modern surface derived carbon and lithologic carbon sources in integrated measurements of fluid and gas phase fluxes. This novel model capability will be applied to test the role of DVZ carbon cycling as a regulator of water quality and geological weathering in two complementary field sites both located in organic carbon rich shale lithologies. The first is the Eel River Critical Zone Observatory (ERCZO) in Mendocino County, California, and the second is the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) in the East River watershed, near Crested Butte, Colorado. At the ERCZO, a novel vadose zone monitoring system has been installed in a 20 m thick, partially saturated, weathered shale hillslope, and preliminary data already indicate substantial CO2 flux generated many meters below the soil surface. At the SFA field site, an instrumented hillslope transect indicates a more complex multi-dimensional fluid and solute transport regime, which will serve as a key test of the calibrated models. Collectively, this project will advance understanding of the cycling of carbon belowground and in relation to transport pathways across the poorly constrained DVZ characteristic of primary water recharge areas. The key product of this work will be enhanced isotope simulation capabilities that are robust and publicly available for application across a broad diversity of systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Intermediate Temperature Stress Rupture of a Woven Hi-Nicalon, BN-Interphase, SiC Matric Composite in Air

Woven Hi-Nicalon (TM) reinforced melt-infiltrated SiC matrix composites were tested under tensile stress-rupture conditions in air at intermediate temperatures. A comprehensive examination of the damage state and the fiber properties at failure was performed. Modal acoustic emission analysis was used to monitor damage during the experiment. Extensive microscopy of the composite fracture surfaces and the individual fiber fracture surfaces was used to determine the mechanisms leading to ultimate failure. The rupture properties of these composites were significantly worse than expected compared to the fiber properties under similar conditions. This was due to the oxidation of the BN interphase. Oxidation occurred through the matrix cracks that intersected the surface or edge of a tensile bar. These oxidation reactions resulted in minor degradation to fiber strength and strong bonding of the fibers to one another at regions of near fiber-to-fiber contact. It was found that two regimes for rupture exist for this material: a high stress regime where rupture occurs at a fast rate and a low stress regime where rupture occurs at a slower rate. For the high stress regime, the matrix damage state consisted of through thickness cracks. The average fracture strength of fibers that were pulled-out (the final fibers to break before ultimate failure) was controlled by the slow-crack growth rupture criterion in the literature for individual Hi-Nicalon (TM) fibers. For the low stress regime, the matrix damage state consisted of microcracks which grew during the rupture test. The average fracture strength of fibers that were pulled-out in this regime was the same as the average fracture strength of individual fibers pulled out in as-produced composites tested at room temperature.

Morscher, Gregory N.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling of Graphite Degradation due to Molten Salt Infiltration and Wear

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) represent a promising next-generation reactor design, with graphite serving as a moderator and/or reflector in several designs. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, a technical understanding of the structural integrity of graphite in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report presents a modeling-based evaluation of graphite degradation in MSR environments, focusing on the effects of salt infiltration in fuel salt-based designs and surface wear in pebble bed reactor designs. The objective of this study is to enhance understanding of the structural integrity challenges posed by these degradation mechanisms and to provide a framework for assessing graphite behavior in MSRs. The first part of the report investigates the phenomenon of molten salt infiltration into graphite. This infiltration occurs when molten salt permeates the interconnected pore structure of the graphite moderator, driven by factors such as pressure differentials and the physical properties of both the salt and graphite. The infiltration process is influenced by characteristics of the pore structure, viscosity of the molten salt, and the interfacial energies between the graphite, salt, and the atmosphere within the graphite pore. Utilizing a coupled multiphysics modeling approach with Grizzly software, the study evaluates the stress induced by internal heat sources due to infiltration, which can lead to structural concerns. This evaluation is crucial for understanding how infiltration affects the mechanical integrity of graphite components in MSRs. The study considers the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) graphite stringer geometry due to the availability of relevant data. Through detailed finite element analysis, the study examines stress distributions at varying infiltration percentages, revealing that stress levels increase with higher amounts of infiltration. Rare-event simulations, using the parallel subset simulation (PSS) framework, further quantify the failure probabilities under input uncertainties, with a user-specified failure metric. The PSS framework also identifies critical input parameters that significantly affect the stress values, including infiltration amount, thermal conductivity, and power density. Additionally, considering realistic reactor scenarios, the analysis was performed to account for the combined effects of radiation and infiltration, and modeling strategies on how to analyze new reactor designs or new graphite grades are discussed. The second part of the report focuses on wear mechanisms in pebble bed-based MSRs. As graphite fuel pebbles interact with the graphite reflector block, wear can result in material loss and the formation of surface defects, which may act as stress concentrators. A similar multiphysics modeling framework is employed to assess the impact of wear on the structural integrity of graphite components. This study considers a generic fluoride-cooled high-temperature reactor (gFHR) design due to the availability of comprehensive data. Worst-case scenario dimensions of the reflector blocks were analyzed under thermal and radiation conditions. Subsequently, wear in the form of idealized pits and grooves is modeled on the inner surface of the graphite block, with the maximum stress from previous simulations. The simulations show that groove-type defects are more detrimental than pits, leading to higher stress concentrations. Considering worst-case simulation scenarios and experimental wear rates, it was determined that the formation of a surface defect critical enough to affect the stress may not be possible in a gFHR design. Overall, the findings of this research contribute to the development of robust modeling tools for predicting graphite behavior under various operational conditions in MSRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust highly durable solid oxide fuel cell cathodes – Improved materials compatibility & self-regulating surface chemistry

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are electrochemical conversion devices that directly transform hydrogen or hydrocarbon fuels to electricity, with energy efficiencies as high as 90%, coupled with reduced emissions. Several factors, however, remain to be addressed when considering scale-up of SOFC technology, including the need to overcome decreased performance due to sluggish rates of the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) at the cathode under reduced temperatures and susceptibility to degradation in performance from surface poisoning e.g. from chromia, while limiting the use of critical raw materials (lanthanides and transition metals) present in high performing mixed ionic electronic conducting electrodes like (La,Sr)CoO 3 (LSC). In this project we explored the key descriptors for determining ORR activity in SOFC electrodes and tried to recover performance degradation by applying them to SOFC electrodes. In order to do this, we first selected a model mixed ionic electronic conducting (MIEC) oxide, Pr-doped CeO 2 (Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ , PCO), which is a chemically stable fluorite and free of inherent poison sources (e.g. Sr segregation in LSC) that potentially react with external impurities such as Cr-species vaporized from the interconnect. The three approaches originally planned in this project are as follows: 1) evaluation of scavenger exsolution characteristics, 2) study of scavengers gettering efficacy following Cr and Si poisoning and 3) integration of new compositions into porous electrodes. Among them, exceptional progress has been made in 2) and 3), especially understanding the role of surface infiltrants in impacting electrode performance and degradation of PCO materials. We found that the Smith acidity scale for binary oxides serves as a powerful descriptor for tuning and predicting the oxygen exchange kinetics on MIEC PCO surfaces. As a result, with infiltration with binary oxides, ranging from strongly basic (Li 2 O) to strongly acidic (SiO 2 ) onto the surface of porous PCO, it was possible to systematically vary the chemical surface exchange coefficient (k chem ) by 6 orders of magnitude! L i2 O increased k chem by nearly 1,000 times over that of pristine PCO, while SiO 2 decreased k chem by nearly the same factor. Strikingly, although the pre-exponential of k chem scales linearly with the acidity of the infiltrated binary oxide, there is nearly no change in the activation energy. With this insight, we attributed the origin of these dramatic changes in k chem values to the systematic increase and decrease in the surface electron density induced by infiltrated binary oxides. More interestingly, although both Cr 2 O 3 and SiO 2 were determined to be acidic by Smith, suggesting that this feature could likely be the primary reason that these compounds serve to poison the ORR on SOFC cathodes, the effect of poisoning could be subsequently tuned by adding multiple infiltrants and controlling their relative surface acidities. We also systematically examined the effect of serial infiltration of basic and acidic oxides. It turned out that serial infiltration of Li not only recovers approximately 20-fold degraded k chem of PCO by acidic Cr 2 O 3 but its k chem is enhanced even beyond that of the non-infiltrated PCO by more than three orders of magnitude. This was further verified with a screen-printing PCO symmetric cell in terms of the electrode performance (area-specific resistance, ASR) related to approach 3). These observations point to acidity as a key descriptor not only in tuning and predicting the ORR activity of SOFC cathodes that largely determines the overall performance of SOFC, but in mitigating and reactivating poisoned electrode performance. This work provides novel guidelines for making the electrode performance much more active and robust in SOFCs, which can further be applied to all applications requiring oxygen exchange reaction, such as electrolyzers, permeation membranes and gas sensors.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task D Final Report

Task D of DECOVALEX-2023 is focused on the simulation of the coupled thermal hydraulic-mechanical (THM) behaviour in the full-scale engineered barrier system (EBS). The Horonobe EBS experiment is the demonstration of the full-scale EBS in the underground research laboratory (URL) (performed by JAEA in the Horonobe URL in Japan). Task D consisted of the three steps, a preliminary step (Step 0), simulation of the laboratory tests (Step 1) and simulation of the in-situ full-scale EBS experiment (Step 2). Since the Horonobe EBS experiment demonstrates the vertical emplacement option of the EBS, the experiment gallery is also backfilled with the backfill material. Therefore, interaction between the EBS and the backfill material can also be demonstrated, such as deformation (change of density) of the buffer material. The underground water in the Horonobe URL is saline. This fact adds chemical processes to THM behaviour. For example, mechanical properties (such as swelling pressure of the buffer material and backfill material) and hydraulic properties (such as permeability of the buffer material and backfill material) change depending on the water chemistry. Task D was therefore a challenging Task focused on not only the relatively simple THM behaviour but also complex THM behaviour including chemical processes. Six research teams (BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI, SNL and Taipower) participated the Task D. BGR, CAS, JAEA, KAERI and Taipower research teams selected a THM approach, while the SNL research team selected a TH approach. Step 1 involved the simulation of laboratory test results and was important to check the numerical codes developed by the research teams. Step 1 was divided into four sub steps. The simulation results through the Step 1 identified the parameters for simulation of the Step 2. Basic parameters of the materials (buffer material, backfill material, rock mass, concrete, sand) were provided by JAEA. Special parameters which research team needed were identified by back analysis of Step 1. Most notably the mechanical behaviour of swelling and displacement depended on the applied model (elastic model or elastoplastic model). Parameters such as Young’s modulus were found to need smaller values than characterised in the fundamental laboratory test results (Step 1-1, 1-2) for the elastic model. Although laboratory experiments are usually simple, test results contained some error. For example, if the saturation level is 100 % or higher, it should be considered an error. This situation was presented in the Step 1-3. A possible reason is that the buffer material is a mixture of bentonite and silica sand. When a specimen is cut to measure volume or weight, sand grains will affect the measurement data. In Step 2, boundary conditions such as temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack, heater power of the electrical heaters installed in the simulated overpack, injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water, were applied. The outer boundary conditions can be selected using measured data (injection pressure and inflow rate of the test water that is controlled by the injection systems installed in the sand layer around the buffer material and in the boundary between backfill material and concrete support). Since such measured data has some noise, research teams developed their own simplified boundary conditions. Inner boundary conditions can be selected using measured data as heater power and temperature on the surface of the simulated overpack. These data also contain some noise, so research teams developed their own simplified developed boundary conditions. Task D validated various approaches thorough the simulation of the in-situ full scale EBS system including backfill of the gallery: variations in the coupling processes (THM or THC), analysis codes, and boundary conditions. Temperature distribution in the buffer material was simulated well by all research teams. This means thermal behaviour is not sensitive to the simulation approaches. Although the water content distribution on the outside of the buffer material was well simulated by all research teams, the simulation results differ from the measured values inside the buffer material (at the centre and inside, near the simulated overpack). The buffer material is made from tap water, but in the in-situ experiment, saline groundwater infiltrates the buffer material. Therefore, the selection of the hydraulic parameters of the buffer material greatly affects the simulation results of the re saturation behaviour of the buffer material. In the Horonobe EBS experiment, measured values suitable for validating the simulation results were not obtained near the simulated overpack. When simulating the pressure and deformation of the buffer material, the measurement data is easily affected by the installation conditions of the measurement sensors, so verifying the measurement data itself remains an issue. Mechanical simulation results differ depending on whether they are considered as elastic or elastoplastic phenomena. The accuracy of measured in-situ data can be assessed by detailed analysis comparing sampling specimen analysis and measured data. The Horonobe EBS experiment is scheduled to be dismantled in the future (FY2026 and 2027). This detailed dismantling investigation will finally confirm the measured data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2018

Seasonal Monitoring of Melt and Accumulation Within the Deep Percolation Zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Comparison with Simulations of Regional Climate Modeling

Increasing melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) recorded over the past several years has resulted in significant changes of the percolation regime of the ice sheet. It remains unclear whether Greenland's percolation zone will act as a meltwater buffer in the near future through gradually filling all pore space or if near-surface refreezing causes the formation of impermeable layers, which provoke lateral runoff. Homogeneous ice layers within perennial firn, as well as near-surface ice layers of several meter thickness have been observed in firn cores. Because firn coring is a destructive method, deriving stratigraphic changes in firn and allocation of summer melt events is challenging. To overcome this deficit and provide continuous data for model evaluations on snow and firn density, temporal changes in liquid water content and depths of water infiltration, we installed an upward-looking radar system (upGPR) 3.4 m below the snow surface in May 2016 close to Camp Raven (66.4779 deg N, 46.2856 deg W) at 2120 m a.s.l. The radar is capable of quasi-continuously monitoring changes in snow and firn stratigraphy, which occur above the antennas. For summer 2016, we observed four major melt events, which routed liquid water into various depths beneath the surface. The last event in mid-August resulted in the deepest percolation down to about 2.3 m beneath the surface. Comparisons with simulations from the regional climate model MAR are in very good agreement in terms of seasonal changes in accumulation and timing of onset of melt. However, neither bulk density of near-surface layers nor the amounts of liquid water and percolation depths predicted by MAR correspond with upGPR data. Radar data and records of a nearby thermistor string, in contrast, matched very well for both timing and depth of temperature changes and observed water percolations. All four melt events transferred a cumulative mass of 56 kg/(sq. m) into firn beneath the summer surface of 2015. We find that continuous observations of liquid water content, percolation depths and rates for the seasonal mass fluxes are sufficiently accurate to provide valuable information for validation of model approaches and help to develop a better understanding of liquid water retention and percolation in perennial firn.

Heilig, Achim↗

NASA NTRS2014

Conformal Ablative Thermal Protection System for Planetary and Human Exploration Missions: An Update of the Technology Maturation Effort

This presentation will update the community on the development of conformal ablative TPS. As described at IPPW-10, in FY12, the CA-TPS element focused on establishing materials requirements based on MSL-type and COTS Low Earth orbit (LEO) conditions (q 250 Wcm2) to develop and deliver a conformal ablative TPS. This involved downselecting, manufacturing and testing two of the best candidate materials, demonstrating uniform infiltration of resins into baseline 2-cm thick carbon felt, selecting a primary conformal material formulation based on novel arc jet and basic material properties testing, developing and demonstrating instrumentation for felt-based materials and, based on the data, developing a low fidelity material response model so that the conformal ablator TPS thickness for missions could be established. In addition, the project began to develop Industry Partnerships. Since the nominal thickness of baseline carbon felts was only 2-cm, a partnership with a rayon felt developer was made in order to upgrade equipment, establish the processes required and attempt to manufacture 10-cm thick white goods. A partnership with a processing house was made to develop the methodology to carbonize large pieces of the white goods into 7.5-cm thick carbon felt.In FY13, more advanced testing and modeling of the downselected conformal material was performed. Material thermal properties tests and structural properties tests were performed. The first 3 and 4-point bend tests were performed on the conformal ablator as well as PICA for comparison and the conformal ablator had outstanding behavior compared to PICA. Arc jet testing was performed with instrumented samples of both the conformal ablator and standard PICA at heating rates ranging from 40 to 400 Wcm2 and shear as high as 600 Pa. The results from these tests showed a remarkable improvement in the thermal penetration through the conformal ablator when compared to PICAs response. The data from these tests were used to develop a mid-fidelity thermal response model. Additional arc jet testing in the same conditions on various seam designs were very successful in showing that the material could be joined with a minimum of adhesive and required no complicated gap and gap filler design for installation. In addition, the partnership with industry to manufacture thicker rayon felt was very successful. The vendor made a 2-m wide by 30-m long sample of 10-cm thick rayon felt. When carbonized, the resulting thickness was over 7.5-cm thick, nearly 4 times the thickest off-the-shelf carbon felt. In FY14, the project has initiated a partnership with another vendor to begin the scale-up manufacturing effort. This year, the vendor will duplicate the process and manufacture at the current scale for comparison with NASA-processed materials. Properties testing and arc jet testing will be performed on the vendor-processed materials. Planning for manufacturing large, 1-m x 1-m, panels will begin as well. In FY15, the vendor will then manufacture large panels and the project will build a 2-m x 2-m Manufacturing Demonstration Unit (MDU).

thermal protection systems↗

NASA NTRS2014

An Update to a Conformal Ablative Thermal Protection System for Planetary and Human Exploration Missions

As described at IPPW-10, in FY12, the CA-TPS element focused on establishing materials requirements based on MSL-type and COTS Low Earth orbit (LEO) conditions (q 250 Wcm2) to develop and deliver a conformal ablative TPS. This involved down selecting, manufacturing and testing two of the best candidate materials, demonstrating uniform infiltration of resins into baseline 2-cm thick carbon felt, selecting a primary conformal material formulation based on novel arc jet and basic material properties testing, developing and demonstrating instrumentation for felt-based materials and, based on the data, developing a low fidelity material response model so that the conformal ablator TPS thickness for missions could be established. In addition, the project began to develop Industry Partnerships. Since the nominal thickness of baseline carbon felts was only 2-cm, a partnership with a rayon felt developer was made in order to upgrade equipment, establish the processes required and attempt to manufacture 10-cm thick white goods. A partnership with a processing house was made to develop the methodology to carbonize large pieces of the white goods into 7.5-cm thick carbon felt. In FY13, more advanced testing and modeling of the down selected conformal material was performed. Material thermal properties tests and structural properties tests were performed. The first 3 and 4-point bend tests were performed on the conformal ablator as well as PICA for comparison and the conformal ablator had outstanding behavior compared to PICA. Arc jet testing was performed with instrumented samples of both the conformal ablator and standard PICA at heating rates ranging from 40 to 400 Wcm2 and shear as high as 600 Pa. The results from these tests showed a remarkable improvement in the thermal penetration through the conformal ablator when compared to PICAs response. The data from these tests were used to develop a mid-fidelity thermal response model. Additional arc jet testing in the same conditions on various seam designs were very successful in showing that the material could be joined with a minimum of adhesive and required no complicated gap and gap filler design for installation. In addition, the partnership with industry to manufacture thicker rayon felt was very successful. The vendor made a 2-m wide by 30-m long sample of 10-cm thick rayon felt. When carbonized, the resulting thickness was over 7.5-cm thick, nearly 4 times the thickest off-the-shelf carbon felt. In FY14, the project has initiated a partnership with another vendor to begin the scale-up manufacturing effort. This year, the vendor will duplicate the process and manufacture at the current scale for comparison with NASA-processed materials. Properties testing and arc jet testing will be performed on the vendor-processed materials. Planning for manufacturing large, 1-m x 1-m, panels will begin as well. In FY15, the vendor will then manufacture large panels and the project will build a 2-m x 2-m Manufacturing Demonstration Unit (MDU).

Ablative materials↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2000

Constituent-Based Life Models Being Developed for SiC/SiC Composites

For the successful utilization of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) as hot-section components in advanced aeropropulsion engines, the CMC constituents will need to be tailored and optimized to meet all the critical property demands of each component. Under the High-Speed Research (HSR) and Advanced High-Temperature Engine Materials Technology (HITEMP) Programs, the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field initiated research to develop mechanistic models for key CMC thermostructural properties. These models would describe the effects of different constituent factors (composition, geometry, and volume fraction) and of potential application conditions (stress, time, temperature, and environment) on these properties. Particular focus was placed on both analytical and numerical modeling of state-of-the-art SiC/SiC composites where the primary load-bearing constituents are stoichiometric SiC fibers in a complex multiphase SiC matrix produced by chemical vapor infiltration and melt infiltration. Recent studies have resulted in computer-based numerical models for the elastic modulus, thermal expansion, and thermal conductivity properties of the SiC/SiC system. Additional studies have generated analytical and empirical models for the time dependence of composite rupture strength at temperatures above 2200 F (1200 C), where CMC's have an important thermostructural advantage over current nickel-based superalloys. These life models utilize thermal activation theory and fiber stress-rupture results measured at Glenn to generate Larson-Miller (L M) plots of fiber rupture strength versus q, a single time- and temperature-dependent parameter. Assuming a worse case in which the SiC matrix is cracked, rupture is then controlled by the time-dependent fracture characteristics of the fiber bundles bridging the matrix cracks. With this as the controlling mechanism, one can then use simple composite theory and the fiber L M plots to predict CMC rupture strength versus the q parameter. The dashed line shows the predicted rupture strength of a SiC/SiC composite that is reinforced by a state-of-the-art stoichiometric SiC fiber. For the q parameter, time is in hours and temperature in degrees kelvin. To generate these predictions, a two-dimensional 0 /90 composite with approximately 16 percent fiber in the applied stress direction and an air test environment were assumed. As such, it is possible to compare the model predictions against limited stress-rupture data for this CMC as shown by the data points. The good agreement confirms the rupture model at least for the selected CMC and test conditions. Thus for this particular SiC/SiC composite, one can estimate a 1000-hr rupture strength of approximately 12 ksi at 2400 F (T = 1588 K and q = 39 700 K). At lower CMC application stresses, the SiC matrix is typically uncracked, so both the fiber and matrix constituents share the composite load. In this case, CMC rupture is controlled by the constituent with the longest rupture time based on the creep rate of the composite. Measured Monkman-Grant plots of rupture time versus creep rate for the two SiC constituents have been used to develop CMC life models for this important application condition. NASA and DOD are currently using this information to establish application and material goals for more advanced CMC's that can be used at even higher temperatures.

DiCarlo, James A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards directed energy deposition of metals using polymer-based supports: porosity of 316L stainless steel deposited on carbon-fiber-reinforced ABS

Directed energy deposition (DED) is increasingly valuable to many industries because of its high deposition rates relative to other metal additive manufacturing processes, but the design space of DED is limited. For instance, steep overhangs are difficult or impossible to manufacture. Polymer-based support structures could help address this challenge. The viability of DED on polymer composite substrates has begun to be explored, specifically with 316L stainless steel on carbon-fiber-reinforced ABS substrates. Monolithic metal components can be deposited on the polymer, but it was found that gas release during polymer degradation causes porosity due to gas entrapment in the metal. An interlayer cooling time was introduced to reduce polymer degradation and decrease the porosity due to gas entrapment, but this led to porosity from lack of fusion. The results of this work provide insight into process parameter selection and scan strategy development to enable the use of polymer support structures in blown-powder DED.

Kurfess, Rebecca↗