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At least 127 records · Page 7

Stochastic Fault Detection

This entry describes the state-of-the-art and future perspectives on stochastic fault detection, namely, stochastic fault detection and diagnosis (FDD). Both model-based and data-driven FDD methods for stochastic signals and systems have been included, where the use of hypothesis testing, Kalman filtering, system estimation, principal component analysis (PCA), and stochastic distribution control has been discussed for the construction of effective FDD algorithms. Indeed, stochastic FDD constitute an important and integrated part in developing fault-tolerant controls (FTC) for guaranteed safe operation of control systems, of which increased penetration of random factors is inevitable nowadays.

Wang, Aiping↗

Learning likelihood ratios with neural network classifiers

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however, make use of data- or simulation-driven models for which computing the likelihood ratio can be very difficult or even impossible. By applying the so-called “likelihood ratio trick,” approximations of the likelihood ratio may be computed using clever parametrizations of neural network-based classifiers. A number of different neural network setups can be defined to satisfy this procedure, each with varying performance in approximating the likelihood ratio when using finite training data. We present a series of empirical studies detailing the performance of several common loss functionals and parametrizations of the classifier output in approximating the likelihood ratio of two univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributions as well as simulated high-energy particle physics datasets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Space-time generalization of mutual information

The mutual information characterizes correlations between spatially separated regions of a system. Yet, in experiments we often measure dynamical correlations, which involve probing operators that are also separated in time. Here, we introduce a space-time generalization of mutual information which, by construction, satisfies several natural properties of the mutual information and at the same time characterizes correlations across subsystems that are separated in time. In particular, this quantity, that we call the space-time mutual information, bounds all dynamical correlations. We construct this quantity based on the idea of the quantum hypothesis testing. As a by-product, our definition provides a transparent interpretation in terms of an experimentally accessible setup. We draw connections with other notions in quantum information theory, such as quantum channel discrimination. Finally, we study the behavior of the space-time mutual information in several settings and contrast its long-time behavior in many-body localizing and thermalizing systems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Replication Concepts for Bioenergy Research Experiments

While there are some large and fundamental differences among disciplines related to the conversion of biomass to bioenergy, all scientific endeavors involve the use of bio- logical feedstocks. As such, nearly every scientific experiment conducted in this area, regardless of the specific discipline, is subject to random variation, some of which is unpredictable and unidentifiable (i.e., pure random variation such as variation among plots in an experiment, individuals within a plot, or laboratory samples within an experimental unit) while some is predictable and identifiable (repeatable variation, such as spatial or temporal patterns within an experimental field, a glasshouse or growth chamber, or among laboratory containers). Identifying the scale and sources of this variation relative to the specific hypotheses of interest is a critical component of designing good experiments that generate meaningful and believable hypothesis tests and inference statements. Many bioenergy feedstock experiments are replicated at an incorrect scale, typically by sampling feedstocks to estimate laboratory error or by completely ignoring the errors associated with growing feedstocks in an agricultural area at a field or farmland (micro- or macro-region) scale. As such, actual random errors inherent in experimental materials are frequently underestimated, with unrealistically low standard errors of statistical parameters (e.g., means), leading to improper inferences. The examples and guidelines set forth in this paper and many of the references cited are intended to form the general policy and guidelines for replication of bioenergy feedstock experiments to be published in BioEnergy Research .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High-dimensional isotomics, part 2: Observations of over 100 constraints on methionine's isotome

The abundances of different isotopic forms of a compound, or isotopologues, will vary based on its physical and chemical history. The number of isotopologues increases combinatorically with the size of a molecule, and even small molecules such as amino acids have thousands of potentially observable isotopic variants. However, due to the analytical challenges of separating and observing isotopologues, only a few dimensions of isotopic diversity are routinely measured. Overcoming these challenges requires both an experimental method to observe many isotopic properties and a theoretical framework for interpreting these experiments. In Part 1, we presented such a theoretical framework; here, we demonstrate an experimental method, which we apply to methionine. Our approach uses a Q Exactive HF Orbitrap to perform several “M + N experiments”, where a sample is ionized, a subset of its isotopologues with cardinal mass N daltons greater than the unsubstituted isotopologue is selected and fragmented, and the proportions of all detectable isotopic forms of those fragment ions are quantified. We perform M + 1, M + 2, M + 3, and M + 4 experiments of a methionine sample and standard where the sample has a 100 ‰ enrichment of 13C at the methyl carbon relative to the natural 13C abundance at that position in the standard, and is otherwise identical to the standard. We observe isotopic forms of 8 fragment ion species for each version of the M + N experiment. With the assistance of a forward model of expected mass spectra, we identify isotopic peaks for each fragment ion based on observed mass and abundance, screen these for data quality, and quantify abundances for 146 unique isotopic peaks at precisions of ≈ 0.3–3 ‰. We present our direct observations and use them to reconstruct the concentrations of 19 individual singly, doubly, and triply-substituted isotopologues; doing so gives fewer constraints and broader error bars than working with the direct observations, but may be more interpretable for some applications. We also examine possibilities for measuring additional peaks, which are primarily limited by the detection limit of the Orbitrap-IRMS method. We then suggest some possible uses of our direct measurements for chemical forensics and hypothesis testing. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the diversity of isotopic constraints currently observable and interpretable for organic molecules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Indirect morphological analysis of particles in polymer particle composites via non-destructive permittivity measurements

We report polymers with specific properties (e.g. electrical, optical or mechanical) are commonly obtained via the addition of additives. The composites final properties rely on the preservation of these additives during embedding, which is, in particular, challenging for high aspect ratio particles, like shear-sensitive flaky particles (ssFP). Thus, in cases of ssFP off- or in-line monitoring is required. This study addresses the lack of suitable non-destructive monitoring methods appropriate for ssFP possessing a thickness below 1um and an area equivalent diameter of several 10 um. An elegant method was developed to validate the integrity of ssFP within composites, which is based on the measurement of the composite's permittivity and applying precise micro-structure property correlations to indirectly determine their morphological features. The main hypothesis tested was that a reduction of the particle’s aspect ratio by a factor of larger than 5 can be detected by the measurement of the composite's permittivity. In this study,the matrix polymer polyethylene or an epoxy resin together with mica-based ssFP with a mean area equivalent diameter of 42 um were used. The micro-structure property correlation presented by G. Ondracek [Z. f. Werkstofftechnik, 8:280-287, 1977] provided the necessary theoretical backbone to indirectly infer geometrical changes to the ssFP from permittivity measurements. An excellent match was obtained between the indirectly and the directly determined particle aspect ratios. This preliminary study established the presented technique as a promising non-destructive test method to monitor the integrity of ssFPs embedded in a polymer. In principle this technique is adaptable for in-line process monitoring.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage: An optimization study on techno-economic analysis

Here, this study performs a techno-economic analysis of hydrogen underground storage systems for grid electricity storage, evaluating their economic viability at the plant scale using dynamic optimization. It explores the feasibility of various system configurations and revenue models in the context of volatile electricity prices and the necessity for multiple revenue streams. The hypothesis tested is that large-scale hydrogen storage, despite its low round-trip efficiency, can be economically viable with the right mix of revenue streams. This study uses scenario-based analysis to assess the impacts of different system configurations, including engaging in time-shifting arbitrage, ancillary service markets and blending hydrogen with natural gas. Results indicate potential annual net cash flows of up to $\$$1.5 million from ancillary services integration and $\$$5.2 million from natural gas blending, contingent on specific system sizes. The study concludes that hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage can be profitable, and emphasizes that proper system design and precise electricity price forecasting are crucial for optimizing system performance and economic returns. This research sets the stage for further investigations into the scalability of hydrogen storage systems and their broader implications for grid electricity storage and energy market dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Spatio-temporal variation of trematode parasites community in Cerastoderma edule cockles from Ria de Aveiro (Portugal)

Highlights: • Trematode communities from the Ria de Aveiro are characterized by low abundance. • Trematode communities showed to be spatially homogenous and showed no seasonal pattern. • Interannual differences in trematode parasite community structure were detected. • Trematode communities can be used as early warning indicators of global changes. • Effective use of trematodes to assess ecosystem's deteriorating conditions. Cerastoderma edule (edible cockle) is among the most exploited bivalves in Europe playing an important socio-economic role. Cockles live in estuaries and lagoons where their population is controlled by several environmental factors including parasitism. Parasites represent an important part of the world known biodiversity but are often neglected. Trematodes are the most prevalent macroparasites of cockles being able to exert an impact both at the individual and population levels. Therefore, it is of prime relevance to recognize and understand the parasite-host system dynamics in order to better predict potential conservation threats to bivalve populations and to maximize the success of stock and disease episodes management. Cockle monitoring was conducted in 2012 and 2016, in six and eight stations, respectively, at the Ria de Aveiro coastal lagoon, Portugal. Cockles were sampled in one single occasion in 2012 and seasonally in 2016. The tested hypothesis is that the trematode community in cockles was spatially and seasonally heterogeneous but stable over time. The main result showed that despite a relative homogeneity of the parasite community structure in cockles, the among-years heterogeneity of trematode communities was higher than among-stations and among-seasons heterogeneity rejecting the postulated hypothesis. Results demonstrated that trematode communities from the Ria de Aveiro are characterized by low abundance, which resulted in a spatial and seasonal trematode homogeneity (despite an overall channel difference and a slight downstream-upstream gradient). The interannual analysis showed a worrisome loss of trematode diversity and prevalence which consequently indicates an important loss of overall diversity and/or environmental conditions reflecting the negative effects of global change (mean temperature rise and overharvesting, among others). The present study highlighted the importance of trematodes in characterising their associated environment and respective biodiversity which might be helpful to assess ecosystem ecological status and to identify threatened areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An objective inter-comparison of trash mark constellations generated by manual and automated detection methods

Trash marks are unintentional markings observed on printed, scanned, or photocopied documents that result from permanent defects or transient material in office machines and can be used for source attribution of questioned documents. Trash mark examinations have been in use in forensic laboratories for decades, yet the method remains relatively untested and relies on training, experience, and anecdotal information to support its validity. Herein this study generated and harnessed objective data to empirically test one of the foundational theories for assessing the origin of photocopied documents: provided trash marks are present in sufficient quantity and/or quality, no two machines will exhibit a constellation of trash marks that is indistinguishable from another. In this project, objective trash mark location and size data was generated for 50 known photocopiers using both a traditional and a novel, automated method. Inter-machine comparisons were conducted using a novel variant of the Hausdorff distance algorithm to generate a quantitative assessment of how similar or different the 2450 pairs of trash mark constellations were from one another. This study found that each of the machines bearing one or more trash marks exhibited objective differences in their trash mark constellations, ultimately providing support for the tested hypothesis

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A panel analysis of groundwater use in California

We report groundwater is a relevant source of drinking and agricultural water in many regions of the world, but many aquifers have been unsustainably over-drafted and polluted. This has significant environmental, health, and economic implications. We rely on panel analysis, with small-sample corrections for cluster-robust variance estimation and hypothesis testing, to investigate the dynamics of groundwater extraction. We focus on California, yet our approach could be helpful to analyze the dynamics of groundwater extraction in other groundwater-reliant regions of the world. In California, over-reliance on groundwater has led to significant overdraft, affecting long-term water supply reliability and groundwater pumping costs. It further caused subsidence and infrastructure damage, harmed groundwater-dependent ecosystems, and threatened the sustainability of groundwater resources in the state. We use panel data of the 56 California Water Plan planning areas over the 1998–2015 period. We concentrate on agricultural and urban water use and the major water projects in the state, to provide a better understanding of the relationships between groundwater extraction and water use and supply. Results suggest that reducing agricultural water in Central California and urban water in Southern California could reduce groundwater extraction in these regions by approximately the same amount of the reduced water. Other opportunities to reduce the stress on the groundwater resources in the state are available for other regions, yet with lower benefits. Results also suggest that a decrease in deliveries from the Central Valley Project to the southern part of the Central Valley would increase groundwater extraction by approximately the same proportion. Changes in deliveries from the major water projects in the state, as well as from other sources of surface water, would also have some, yet lower impacts on groundwater extraction in the Central and Southern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic and single cell characterization of a CRISPR-interference toolset in Pseudomonas putida KT2440 for β-ketoadipate production from p -coumarate

We report Pseudomonas putida KT2440 is a well-studied bacterium for the conversion of lignin-derived aromatic compounds to bioproducts. The development of advanced genetic tools in P. putida has reduced the turnaround time for hypothesis testing and enabled the construction of strains capable of producing various products of interest. Here, we evaluate an inducible CRISPR-interference (CRISPRi) toolset on fluorescent, essential, and metabolic targets. Nuclease-deficient Cas9 (dCas9) expressed with the arabinose (8K)-inducible promoter was shown to be tightly regulated across various media conditions and when targeting essential genes. In addition to bulk growth data, single cell time lapse microscopy was conducted, which revealed intrinsic heterogeneity in knockdown rate within an isoclonal population. The dynamics of knockdown were studied across genomic targets in exponentially-growing cells, revealing a universal 1.75 ± 0.38 hour quiescent phase after induction where 1.5 ± 0.35 doublings occur before a phenotypic response is observed. To demonstrate application of this CRISPRi toolset, β-ketoadipate, a monomer for performance-advantaged nylon, was produced at a 4.39 ± 0.5 g/L and yield of 0.76 ± 0.10 mol/mol from p-coumarate, a hydroxycinnamic acid that can be derived from grasses. These cultivation metrics were achieved by using the higher strength IPTG (1K)-inducible promoter to knockdown the pcaIJ operon in the βKA pathway during early exponential phase. This allowed the majority of the carbon to be shunted into the desired product while eliminating the need for a supplemental carbon and energy source to support growth and maintenance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improved Models for Metallic Nanoparticle Cores from Atomic Pair Distribution Function (PDF) Analysis

X-ray atomic pair distribution functions (PDFs) were collected from a range of canonical metallic nanomaterials, both elemental and alloyed, prepared using different synthesis methods and exhibiting drastically different morphological properties. Widely applied shape-tuned attenuated crystal (AC) fcc models proved inadequate, yielding structured, coherent, and correlated fit residuals. However, equally simple discrete cluster models could account for the largest amplitude features in these difference signals. A hypothesis testing based approach to nanoparticle structure modeling systematically ruled out effects from crystallite size, composition, shape, and surface faceting as primary factors contributing to the AC misfit. On the other hand, decahedrally twinned cluster cores were found to be the origin of the AC structure misfits for a majority of the nanomaterials reported here. It is further motivated that the PDF can readily differentiate between the arrangement of domains in these multiply twinned motifs. Most of the nanomaterials surveyed also fall within the sub-5 nm size regime where traditional electron microscopy cannot easily detect and quantify domain structures, with sampling representative of the average nanocrystal synthesized. Here, the results demonstrate that PDF analysis is a powerful method for understanding internal atomic interfaces in small noble metallic nanomaterials. Such core cluster models, easily built algorithmically, should serve as starting structures for more advanced models able to capture atomic positional disorder, ligand induced or otherwise, near nanocrystal surfaces.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A review of imputation strategies for isobaric labeling-based shotgun proteomics

The throughput efficiency and increased depth of coverage provided by isobaric-labeled proteomics measurements have led to increased usage of these techniques. However, the structure of missing data is uniquely different than unlabeled studies. In this review, we compare the efficacy of nine imputation methods on a CPTAC proteomics iTRAQ dataset. Imputation methods were evaluated with regard to accuracy, variability, statistical hypothesis test inference and run time over datasets consisting of varying number of iTRAQ plexes and percentages of missing data. In general, expectation maximization and random forest imputation methods yielded the best performances, and constant-based methods performed poorly consistently across all dataset sizes and percentages of missing values. For datasets with small sample sizes and higher percentages of missing data, results indicate that statistical inference with no imputation may be preferable. Based on the findings in this review, there are core imputation methods that perform higher for isobaric-labeled proteomics data, but great care and consideration as to whether imputation should be used should be given for datasets comprised of a small number of samples, as well as to factors such as computational time and reproducibility of imputation values.

Bramer, Lisa M.↗

A Mass‐Conserving‐Perceptron for Machine‐Learning‐Based Modeling of Geoscientific Systems

Although decades of effort have been devoted to building Physical-Conceptual (PC) models for predicting the time-series evolution of geoscientific systems, recent work shows that Machine Learning (ML) based Gated Recurrent Neural Network technology can be used to develop models that are much more accurate. However, the difficulty of extracting physical understanding from ML-based models complicates their utility for enhancing scientific knowledge regarding system structure and function. Here, we propose a physically interpretable Mass-Conserving-Perceptron (MCP) as a way to bridge the gap between PC-based and ML-based modeling approaches. The MCP exploits the inherent isomorphism between the directed graph structures underlying both PC models and GRNNs to explicitly represent the mass-conserving nature of physical processes while enabling the functional nature of such processes to be directly learned (in an interpretable manner) from available data using off-the-shelf ML technology. As a proof of concept, we investigate the functional expressivity (capacity) of the MCP, explore its ability to parsimoniously represent the rainfall-runoff (RR) dynamics of the Leaf River Basin, and demonstrate its utility for scientific hypothesis testing. To conclude, we discuss extensions of the concept to enable ML-based physical-conceptual representation of the coupled nature of mass-energy-information flows through geoscientific systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermodynamics of order and randomness in dopant distributions inferred from atomically resolved imaging

Abstract Exploration of structure-property relationships as a function of dopant concentration is commonly based on mean field theories for solid solutions. However, such theories that work well for semiconductors tend to fail in materials with strong correlations, either in electronic behavior or chemical segregation. In these cases, the details of atomic arrangements are generally not explored and analyzed. The knowledge of the generative physics and chemistry of the material can obviate this problem, since defect configuration libraries as stochastic representation of atomic level structures can be generated, or parameters of mesoscopic thermodynamic models can be derived. To obtain such information for improved predictions, we use data from atomically resolved microscopic images that visualize complex structural correlations within the system and translate them into statistical mechanical models of structure formation. Given the significant uncertainties about the microscopic aspects of the material’s processing history along with the limited number of available images, we combine model optimization techniques with the principles of statistical hypothesis testing. We demonstrate the approach on data from a series of atomically-resolved scanning transmission electron microscopy images of Mo x Re 1- x S 2 at varying ratios of Mo/Re stoichiometries, for which we propose an effective interaction model that is then used to generate atomic configurations and make testable predictions at a range of concentrations and formation temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

On-the-fly autonomous control of neutron diffraction via physics-informed Bayesian active learning

We demonstrate the first live, autonomous control over neutron diffraction experiments by developing and deploying ANDiE: the autonomous neutron diffraction explorer. Neutron scattering is a unique and versatile characterization technique for probing the magnetic structure and behavior of materials. However, instruments at neutron scattering facilities in the world is limited, and instruments at such facilities are perennially oversubscribed. We demonstrate a significant reduction in experimental time required for neutron diffraction experiments by implementation of autonomous navigation of measurement parameter space through machine learning. Prior scientific knowledge and Bayesian active learning are used to dynamically steer the sequence of measurements. We show that ANDiE can experimentally determine the magnetic ordering transition of both MnO and Fe 1.09 Te all while providing a fivefold enhancement in measurement efficiency. Furthermore, in a hypothesis testing post-processing step, ANDiE can determine transition behavior from a set of possible physical models. ANDiE's active learning approach is broadly applicable to a variety of neutron-based experiments and can open the door for neutron scattering as a tool of accelerated materials discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Large-database cross-verification and validation of tokamak transport models using baselines for comparison

State-of-the-art 1D transport solvers ASTRA and TRANSP are verified, then validated across a large database of semi-randomly selected, time-dependent DIII-D discharges. Various empirical models are provided as baselines to contextualize the validation figures of merit using statistical hypothesis tests. For predicting plasma temperature profiles, no statistically significant advantage is found for the ASTRA and TRANSP simulators over a baseline empirical (two-parameter) model. For predicting stored energy, a significant advantage is found for the simulators over a baseline empirical model based on confinement time scaling. Uncertainty in the results due to diagnostic and profile fitting uncertainties is approximated and determined to be insignificant due in part to the large quantity of discharges employed in the study. Advantages are discussed for validation methodologies like this one that employ (1) large databases and (2) baselines for comparison that are specific to the intended use-case of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗