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At least 127 records · Page 7

Biodiversity and Global Health: Intersection of Health, Security, and the Environment

One of the biggest consequences of large-scale environmental change is the loss of biodiversity. Recent studies predict a loss of 1 million species in the near future. Biodiversity loss and land use change through anthropogenic disturbance are known to affect disease exposure, disease severity, and disease impacts. It is becoming increasingly clear that biodiversity loss will lead to an increase in infectious diseases in certain regions. Changes in biodiversity may contain important signatures for prediction of infectious diseases and outbreaks. Here, we argue that areas of high or rapid biodiversity loss will be critical to monitor under the umbrella of global health security. Global Health Security consists of the actions and activities required to reduce the impact of public health events in populations living in different geographic regions and across international borders. Like infectious diseases, climate change and other causes of environmental changes do not respect international borders and are becoming more widespread in all parts of the world. Here, the relationships among biodiversity, climate and environmental changes, and pathogen prevalence are dynamic, context dependent, and complex. Accounting for this complexity requires the inclusion of the environment sector, presently missing, when evaluating the potential of global health security actions for mitigating disease risks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Eastern Interconnection Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Study Report

To meet the government mandates such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), conventional synchronous generators with rotating mass are being displaced by inverter-based resources (IBRs), leading to high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). As a result, the inherent properties and characteristics of the transformed generation mix may significantly impact the grid behaviour, and it is of paramount significance that the impact and the consequences of the resource mix change is thoroughly understood to adopt measures to maintain reliable grid operations. Of great concern is the inter-area low-frequency oscillation, which usually propagates through a large region and has a system-wide impact. Such oscillations may lead to unnecessary or inadvertent tripping of generators, that may be simply reacting to the oscillation originating from geographically remote sites. Such tripping of generators can lead to cascading outages, system split and load loss events. Over the years, several system-wide oscillation events have been observed across all three North American interconnections. This project titled Wide-area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study, sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE), aims to conduct the required research to capture and investigate the potential changes in wide-area oscillatory performance of the system as a result of resource mix transition. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted this research and technical staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) served as advisors to the project. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the power system wide-area oscillatory behaviours, as a result of the generation-mix changes due to the increased penetration of RES in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection (EI). The analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the EI system. This research conducted in this project evaluates the wide-area oscillatory behaviour of the EI, using a model-based approach for potential future resource mixes, and the measurement-based analysis with 21-month phasor measurement unit (PMU) time series. The oscillation modes in EI system along with the impact of the changes of the generation mix on the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of the oscillations have been studied.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Streaming Analytics for Anomaly Detection in Large-Scale Data

Anomalous behavior poses serious risks to assured performance and reliability of complex, high-consequence systems. For spaceborne assets and their state-of-health (SOH) telemetry, the challenges of high-dimensional data of varying data types are compounded by computational limitations from size, weight, and power (SWaP) constraints as well as data availability. Automated anomaly detection methods tend to perform poorly under these constraints, while current operational approaches can introduce delays in response time due to the manual, retrospective processes for understanding system failures. As a result, presently deployed space systems, and those deployed in the near future, face situations where mission operations might be delayed or only be able to operate under degraded capabilities. Here, we examine a near-term lightweight solution that provides real-time detection capabilities for rare events and assess state-of-the-art anomaly detection techniques against real SOH telemetry from space platforms. This report describes our methodology and research, which could support more automated capabilities for comprehensive space operations as well as for other resource-constrained edge applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Developing a Reduced 240-Bus WECC Dynamic Model for Frequency Response Study of High Renewable Integration

The ongoing changes in the generation resource mix, driven by the rapid adoption of inverter-based resources (IBR) as well as the early retirement of synchronous generators, are bringing new challenges to the planning and operation of bulk electric power systems. Consequently, there is an increasing need to understand, design, and quantify the reliability service provision from IBRs by performing integrated scheduling and dynamic simulations. However, test systems that have consistent scheduling and dynamic models rarely exist largely because of the decoupled nature of the two simulations on a synchronous generator-dominated system. This paper develops the dynamic model of a reduced Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. In conjunction with the existing scheduling model, it is suitable for integrating scheduling and dynamic simulations. The reduced 240-bus WECC model reflects the generation resource mix of the Western Interconnection as of 2018. Moreover, the developed dynamic model is validated against field frequency events measured by FNET/GridEye and preserves the dominant inter-area oscillation mode in WECC.

dynamic simulation↗

Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels

Abstract The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional Heatwave Prediction Using Graph Neural Network and Weather Station Data

Abstract Heatwaves lead to catastrophic consequences on public health and the economy. Accurate and timely predictions of regional heatwaves can improve climate preparedness and foster decision‐making to alleviate the burdens due to climate change. In this paper, we propose a heatwave prediction algorithm based on a novel deep learning model, that is, Graph Neural Network (GNN). This new GNN framework can provide real time warnings of the sudden occurrence of regional heatwaves with high accuracy at lower costs of computation and data collection. In addition, its interpretable structure unravels the spatiotemporal patterns of regional heatwaves and helps to enrich our understanding of the general climate dynamics and the causal influences between locations. The proposed GNN framework can be applied for the detection and prediction of other extreme or compound climate events, which calls for future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spark Channel Dynamics of Electrostatic Discharges

When two differently-charged objects are brought in close proximity to each other, the resulting high electric fields can cause electron avalanche breakdown of the air gap separating the objects, a process known as electrostatic discharge (ESD). If enough initial charge is stored on the objects, the electrical breakdown can proceed to ionize the air to such a degree that a highly conductive filament of plasma forms in the gap, known as a spark channel. The spark electrically bridges the air gap, resulting in a rapid pulse of current that neutralizes the charge difference. The current pulse produces significant heating of the gas in the spark, resulting in dissociation, ionization, thermal radiation, and hydrodynamic expansion. ESD presents a hazard to electrically-sensitive devices, with consequences such as economic losses (e.g. damaged electronics) or unsafe response (e.g. unintended ignition of flammable gas mixtures, initiation of detonators, etc.). For this thesis, the ESD spark is taken to occur between two conducting electrodes, with the spark channel being axisymmetric in a cylindrical coordinate system centered on the channel. An RLC-type circuit is used for the discharge model of the ESD event. The spark is treated as a time-dependent resistance that is in series with a capacitance, an inductance, and (optionally) a load resistance representing a “victim” component under threat from the ESD event. The primary motivation of this work is to use a numerical hydrodynamic model to understand the energy dissipation and transport processes in the spark. The model consists of the compressible Euler equations of mass, momentum, and energy conservation together with an Eddington/P1 approximation for thermal radiation transport. To close the hydrodynamic system, an equation of state (EOS) was fitted from tabular data for air that accounts for the dissociation and ionization of air species. The hydrodynamic equations are solved using a conservative Lagrangian finite volume method. These partial differential equations are coupled to the circuit equations by calculation of the spark resistance via numerical integration of the electrical conductivity of the channel. Computational results are compared against experimental measurements of discharge current and radial density of the spark channel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimated timescales for wet deposition of organic compounds as a function of Henry's law constants

Atmospheric organic compounds may deposit to Earth's surfaces via dry deposition, driven by concentration gradients, and wet deposition, driven by the scavenging of compounds by precipitation. Their removal by deposition has downstream impacts on concentrations of secondary organic aerosol by removing potential aerosol precursors that would otherwise oxidize to form particulate matter. The impact of deposition processes can consequently be considered as competition between rates of oxidation and deposition, but timescales for deposition are not well constrained. While timescales for dry deposition have been estimated and experimentally validated in the past, understanding of wet deposition of organics is still very limited. In this work, we estimate the wet deposition timescale for gas-phase organic compounds in the atmosphere as a function of Henry's law constants, H, using real-world precipitation frequency and size distributions at five globally-distributed sites. The wet deposition timescale decreases significantly with the increase of H until reaching a stable minimum for compounds with H > 10 5 M per atm. We estimate that the median wet deposition timescale for highly soluble gases is approximately 5 hours during a continuous rain event for all sites. However, median estimated timescales ranged from 80 to 200 hours, depending on location. Timescales are found to depend primarily on the frequency and duration of precipitation events rather than their intensity or size characteristics. Based on these data, we demonstrate that timescales for wet deposition of gases can be estimated at any given location using only basic precipitation information, without detailed or high-precision measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of spacer grids on high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal

Increasing the fuel burnup limit in light-water reactors to improve fuel cycle economics requires a strong technical foundation. Experimental observations from the Halden and Studsvik programs have revealed severe fuel fragmentation during loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, highlighting the need for additional technical evaluation. Consequently, further LOCA test data are needed to complement existing findings and improve the understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) behavior. Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Severe Accident Test Station has played a significant role in advancing the understanding of high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal phenomena. One remaining gap in the available experimental database is the effect of fuel assembly structural features on cladding deformation behavior during a LOCA, and more specifically, their impact on the fuel’s ability to fragment, relocate, and disperse. Recent analyses using the BISON fuel performance code suggest that cladding deformation near grid spacers will remain below the 3% threshold that has been reported in the NRC Research Information Letter, indicating that the cladding could remain mechanically constrained during the LOCA event. This paper builds upon the BISON analyses to design and conduct a series of out-of-cell tests aimed at further evaluating cladding deformation in and around grid spacers. In addition, these tests were used to assess local cladding temperature conditions and compare them against analytical predictions in order to better replicate expected in-reactor behavior. Finally, an in-cell high-burnup LOCA test was designed and performed to evaluate the effects of a grid spacer, or cladding restraint, on fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility. The high-burnup test results differed from those of historical LOCA experiments, with a recorded rupture temperature of 861°C. Two ballooned regions and corresponding rupture openings were observed, with rupture widths of approximately 0.64 mm for both ruptures and rupture lengths of 4.8 mm and 5.6 mm, respectively.

Capps, Nathan [ORNL]↗

Constraints on sub-terrestrial free-floating planets from Subaru microlensing observations

ABSTRACT The abundance of protoplanetary bodies ejected from their parent star system is presently poorly constrained. With only two existing optical observations of interstellar objects in the 108–1010 kg mass range and a small number of robust microlensing observations of free-floating planets (FFPs) in the 1024–1025 kg mass range, there is a large range of masses for which there are no existing measurements of the unbound population. The three primary microlensing surveys currently searching for FFPs operate at a cadence greater than 15 min, which limits their ability to observe events associated with bodies with a mass much below an Earth mass. We demonstrate that existing high-cadence observations of M31 with the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam place constraints on the abundance of unbound objects at sub-terrestrial masses, with peak sensitivity at 10−4 M⊕ for Milky Way lenses and 10−1 M⊕ for lenses in M31. For a fiducial $\frac{dn}{dM}\propto M^{-2}$ mass distribution, we find that the abundance of unbound objects is constrained to $n_\text{unbound} \lt 1.4 \times 10^{7} ~\rm {pc}^{-3}$ for masses within 1 dex of 10−4 M⊕. Additionally, we compute limits on an artificial ‘monochromatic’ distribution of unbound objects and compare to existing literature, demonstrating that the assumed spatial distribution of lenses has very significant consequences for the sensitivity of microlensing surveys. While the observations ultimately do not probe abundances suggested by current models of planetary formation, our limits place direct observational constraints on the unbound population in the sub-terrestrial mass range and motivate new observational strategies for microlensing surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

BayoTech Risk and Modeling Support of NM Gas Site

The BayoTech hydrogen generation system has been evaluated in terms of safety considerations at the NM Gas site. The consequence of a leak in different components in the system was evaluated in terms of plume dispersion and overpressure. Additionally, the likelihood of a leak scenario for different hydrogen components was identified. The worst-case plume dispersion cases, full-bore leaks, resulted in relatively large plumes. However, these cases were noted to be far less likely than the partial break cases that were evaluated. The partial break cases resulted in nearly negligible plume lengths. Similarly, the overpressure analysis of the full-bore break scenarios resulted in much larger overpressures than the partial break cases (which resulted in negligible overpressure at the lot line). There were several cases evaluated in the analysis that represented leak scenarios from both hydrogen and natural gas sources. Generally, the natural gas leak scenarios resulted in a smaller horizontal impact than that of hydrogen leaks. The worst-case consequence from a hydrogen leak resulted from the compressors, storage pods, or dispensing system. To consider the safety features that may isolate the leak, the consequence was evaluated at different times after the leak event to show the reduction of pressure. After 2 seconds, the plume dispersion from this event is contained within the perimeter of the site. The worst-case consequences show that the plume may disperse to adjacent facilities and to the street. When considering both likelihood and consequence, the risk may be considered low because the maximum frequency of a full-bore leak from any component within the hydrogen compound is 8.2 E-5/yr. This means that a full-bore leak is expected to occur less than once every 10,000 years. The risk can be further reduced by implementing mitigative countermeasures, such as CMU walls along the sides of the equipment compound. This would reduce the overall consequence of the worst-case dispersion scenarios (horizontal impact of plume). In terms of siting and safety analysis, the NFPA 2 code was used to provide a high-level evaluation of the current site plan. The most limiting equipment in terms of set-back distance are the compressors/storage units because of the high-pressure hydrogen. The site layout was evaluated for an acceptable location for the compression/storage unit based on NFPA 2 set-back distances. It is important to note that the NFPA 2 set-back distances consider both likelihood and consequence. This is important because the worst-case results evaluated herein also represent the least likely leak scenario. Other site-specific considerations were evaluated, including the parking shade structure with photovoltaic cells and refueling vehicles. These issues were dispositioned and determined to not present a safety risk.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A history of mild shocks experienced by the regolith particles on hydrated asteroid Ryugu

Micrometeorites, a possible major source of Earth’s water, are thought to form from explosive dispersal of hydrated chondritic materials during impact events on their parental asteroids. However, this provenance and formation mechanism have yet to be directly confirmed using asteroid returned samples. Here, we report evidence of mild shock metamorphism in the surface particles of asteroid Ryugu based on electron microscopy. All particles are dominated by phyllosilicates but lack dehydration textures, which are indicative of shock-heating temperatures below ~500°C. Microfault-like textures associated with extensively shock-deformed framboidal magnetites and a high-pressure polymorph of Fe–Cr–sulfide have been identified. These findings indicate that the average peak pressure was ~2 GPa. The vast majority of ejecta formed during impact on Ryugu-like asteroids would be hydrated materials, larger than a millimetre, originating far from the impact point. These characteristics are inconsistent with current micrometeorite production models, and consequently, a new formation mechanism is required.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Safety Benefits Assessment for Accident Tolerant Fuels in Consideration of Steam Generator Tube Degradation Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis

Accident tolerant fuel (ATF) is expected to delay or prevent core damage by providing additional coping time under accidents involving loss of core cooling. The effect of extended coping time may vary depending on the plant response to accidents. Age-related component degradation that deteriorates plant performance over time could have an impact on the actual advantages of ATF. The potential safety benefits of two near-term ATF candidates, including Cr-coated Zr cladding and FeCrAl cladding, are assessed for a 2-in. loss-of-coolant accident with failed high-pressure safety injection using the dynamic event tree (DET) approach considering possible stress corrosion cracking of steam generator (SG) tubing under aging. The DET approach allows likelihood quantification of accident sequences leading to core damage, including stochastic variation of system response and human actions during accident mitigation. The safety benefits of the selected ATF claddings in terms of additional coping time and the core damage frequency reduction rate under specified accident situations were quantitatively estimated. The results show that the deployment of the two selected ATF claddings is expected to lead to longer coping times and lower core damage frequency due to the wider safety margin to peak cladding temperature they provide. The safety advantages would be greater as SG tube degradation proceeds. Thus, the two ATF candidates would lead to less severe consequences in terms of likelihood of core damage and susceptibility to the SG tube degradation than UO 2 -Zr fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Repository-Scale Performance Assessment Incorporating Postclosure Criticality

A key objective of the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy’s Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign is to better understand the technical basis, risks, and uncertainty associated with the safe and secure disposition of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste. Commercial nuclear power generation in the United States has resulted in thousands of metric tons of SNF, the disposal of which is the responsibility of the DOE (Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended). Any repository licensed to dispose of SNF must meet requirements regarding the long-term performance of that repository. For an evaluation of the long-term performance of the repository, one of the events that may need to be considered is the SNF achieving a critical configuration during the postclosure period. Of particular interest is the potential behavior of SNF in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs), which are currently licensed and being used to store and transport SNF but were not designed for permanent geologic disposal. A study has been initiated to examine the potential consequences, with respect to long-term repository performance, of criticality events that might occur during the postclosure period in a hypothetical repository containing DPCs. The first phase (a scoping phase) consisted of developing an approach to creating the modeling tools and techniques that may eventually be needed to either include or exclude criticality from a performance assessment (PA) as appropriate; this scoping phase is documented in Price et al. (2019a). In the second phase, that modeling approach was implemented and future work was identified, as documented in Price et al. (2019b). This report gives the results of a repository-scale PA examining the potential consequences of postclosure criticality, as well as the information, modeling tools, and techniques needed to incorporate the effects of postclosure criticality in the PA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Initial Atmospheric Transport of Particles

A new version of the Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) model has been developed. This report fully characterizes the new model. IAT is designed to model heat release into the atmosphere that contains contaminated particles. The heat release forms a buoyant puff or plume. Buoyancy is quickly dissipated in 10's to 100's of seconds through drag and entrainment of ambient air. The final location of contaminant particles in the atmosphere after dissipation of abnormal heat is an important input to long term transportation codes such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) code. Ultimately the settling of contaminants after long term transport provides a basis for estimating health consequences. In comparison to the old version, the new model includes explicit simulation of particles, newly formulated equations of motion for a rising puff, and a new plume model. The plume model releases many instances of a single puff along a single trajectory in a way that balances energy released over a longer period than would be appropriate for a single puff. The puff model has additions for vorticity, turbulence, virtual mass, drag, and entrainment. The particle model leads to direct interfacing between IAT and the long-term transport code HYSPLIT. Previously, particle locations were given a pattern based on IAT's puff trajectory with no particle simulation. Now, particles are explicitly simulated, and 3-D spatial distributions of particles are output based on final positions. Ballistic particles are thrown outward at high velocity from explosive events and tend to hit the ground before the end of the simulation. Non-ballistic particles tend to get pulled into the rising puff s ring of vorticity with some escaping to ambient conditions as buoyant energy dissipates. A new model verification and validation effort was made for the new plume model. The Wallops Island Solid Rocket Propellant (SRP) fire plume was extracted to a 3-D transient dataset. After calibration, the model performs better than previous single puff attempts. Even so, error levels in the process used to estimate location and ambient weather conditions approach 30%. This leads to the conclusion that unplanned photogrammetry evaluations of the IAT model are useful but not sufficiently accurate to quantify model parameters. Like previous attempts, the vertical motion entrainment parameters come out much too high in comparison to values for other studies in the literature. It is suspected that a new model of shear entrainment would alleviate this problem. Unfortunately, IAT already has more calibration parameters than the data comparisons thus far can resolve with statistical certainty. This underscores the need to verify and validate the IAT model using detailed CFD studies that allow ideal statistical comparison with the IAT model for hundreds of cases. Even so, validation by comparison to carefully planned experiments (i.e. with acceptable error levels) is also necessary because the dynamics of entrainment are at a sub-grid level for CFD. Though better validation and verification are most important, many new enhancements are still envisioned for future IAT development. These include particle rain out due to condensation and agglomeration of water, direct connection to the North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather dataset, dynamic weather conditions, including ambient particle entrainment into the puff, and detrainment at the puff to ambient mixing interface. In general, including detailed aerosol dynamics is the greatest coming challenge which will require an entire new sub-model in IAT. This is very important if contaminant particles change in such a way that they increase or decrease in their potential harm to the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Full core LOCA safety analysis for a PWR containing high burnup fuel

For economic reasons, the US nuclear industry is renewing efforts to build a technical basis to extend peak rod average burnup limits above the current regulatory burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. The primary driver of these efforts is to economically increase pressurized water reactor (PWR) cycle lengths to 24 months, reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies, increase time online, thereby reducing number of outages and their associated cost, higher fuel utilization, and possibly reduce core design constraints. In order for US nuclear utilities to leverage these economic efficiencies, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will likely require nuclear power plants (NPPs) to analyze a number of potential operational occurrences and their potential consequences with each new core design prior to resuming normal operation. Potential operational occurrences can be divided into three primary regimes: (1) normal operation, (2) anticipated operation occurrences (AOOs), and (3) design basis accidents (DBAs). Normal plant operation is an operating regime in which the plant operates within specified operational limits until the end of the cycle, whereas AOOs are events that result in the NPP deviating outside the normal operating regime. A key attribute of an AOO is that the occurrence should be expected. However, by definition, the occurrence of an AOO does not result in significant impact to critical safety functions. The last potential operational occurrence is a DBA. From the fuel performance point-of-view, DBAs can be subdivided into two bounding categories: (1) loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs), and (2) reactivity insertion accidents (RIAs). Unlike AOOs, DBAs may result in fuel rod failure. The NRC imposes fundamental acceptance criteria to minimize radiological consequences to the public and onsite staff. Furthermore, safety criteria are typically linked to the fulfillment of other acceptance criteria related to reactor safety equipment designed to mitigate DBAs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The Evolution of Inclined Binary Black Holes in the Disks of Active Galactic Nuclei

The accretion disks that fuel active galactic nuclei (AGNs) may house numerous stars and compact objects, formed in situ or captured from nearby star clusters. Embedded neutron stars and black holes may form binaries and eventually merge, emitting gravitational waves detectable by LIGO/VIRGO. AGN disks are a particularly promising environment for the production of high-mass gravitational-wave events involving black holes in the pair-instability mass gap, and may facilitate electromagnetic counterparts to black hole binary mergers. However, many orders of magnitude separate the typical length scales of binary formation and those on which gravitational waves can drive binary inspirals, making binary mergers inside the disk uncertain. Previous hydrodynamical simulations of binaries have either been restricted to two dimensions entirely, or focused on binaries aligned with the midplane of the disk. Herein we present the first three-dimensional, high-resolution, local-shearing-box, inviscid hydrodynamical simulations of disk-embedded binaries over a range of orbital inclinations. We find that retrograde binaries can shrink up to 4 times as quickly as prograde binaries, and that all binaries not perfectly aligned (or anti-aligned) with the AGN disk are driven into alignment. An important consequence of this is that initially retrograde binaries will traverse the inclinations where von Zeipel–Lidov–Kozai oscillations can drive binary eccentricities to large values, potentially facilitating mergers. We also find that interactions with the AGN disk may excite eccentricities in retrograde binaries and cause the orbits of embedded binaries to precess.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗